China’s International Mediation Efforts: the Where, Why, and How

China's Emerging Role in International Conflict Resolution

In this transcript, the speakers discuss China's recent shift from a hands-off approach to conflicts far from its own neighborhood to a developing role as a convener, mediator, or guarantor of new deals. They explore China's motivation for getting involved in these negotiations and its potential impact on global peace and instability.

Introduction

• The speakers introduce the topic of China's emerging role in international conflict resolution.

• They mention recent events where China has shifted from a hands-off approach to conflicts far from its own neighborhood to a developing role as a convener, mediator, or guarantor of new deals.

Panelists' Opening Remarks

Ambassador Martin Indick

• Ambassador Indick discusses China's role in the Persian or Arabian Gulf.

• He talks about how the United States used to define its interests in the Middle East being Israel oil oil and oil while today, China defines its interests in the Middle East as almost entirely oil-related.

• He mentions that for a long time, Chinese have been freeloading off US taxpayers' commitment to maintaining security in the Gulf.

• He explains that there is now a major shift in the balance of interests when it comes to this particular part of the world which holds so much of the world's oil reserves. Saudi Arabia alone has something like 18% -17% of the world's oil reserves. However, it is China that is dependent on that oil now not the United States.

Dr. Yinan He

• Dr. Yinan He discusses how China sees itself as an emerging power with global responsibilities.

• She talks about how China's involvement in international conflict resolution is part of its broader foreign policy strategy.

• She mentions that China's approach to conflict resolution is based on non-interference, impartiality, and respect for sovereignty.

• She explains that China's involvement in conflict resolution can be seen as a way to enhance its soft power and improve its image globally.

Dr. Tong Zhao

• Dr. Tong Zhao discusses how China's involvement in international conflict resolution is driven by its economic interests.

• He talks about how China's Belt and Road Initiative has increased its economic presence in many countries around the world.

• He mentions that conflicts can disrupt China's economic interests, which is why it has an incentive to get involved in conflict resolution.

• He explains that China's involvement in conflict resolution can also be seen as a way to promote regional stability and prevent conflicts from spilling over into other regions.

Moderated Discussion

• The speakers engage in a moderated discussion where they explore various aspects of China's emerging role in international conflict resolution.

• They discuss the challenges that China faces when getting involved in conflicts far from its own neighborhood, including cultural differences and lack of experience.

• They talk about the potential risks of China getting involved in conflicts, including backlash from other countries and domestic opposition.

• They explore the impact that China's role might have on global peace and instability through the outcomes of these deals.

Audience Questions

• The speakers answer questions from the audience related to various aspects of their discussion.

China's Role in the Middle East

In this section, the speaker discusses China's role in mediating between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and how this could potentially benefit the United States.

China as a Mediator

• Saudi Arabia invited China to play a diplomatic role in mediating between them and their long-time enemy, Iran.

• The details of the agreement are unclear, but it is believed to include the resumption of diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, as well as Iran using its influence on the Houthi rebels in Yemen to help end the conflict there.

• The conflict in Yemen has caused a humanitarian crisis and kept Saudi Arabia tied down for years. If China can persuade Iran to cut off supplies of weapons to the Houthis and get them to reconcile with Saudi Arabia, it would be a great service to both Yemeni people and the United States.

• If China succeeds in helping settle this conflict, it would align with Biden Administration's objective of calming things down in the Middle East.

Potential Benefits for US-China Cooperation

• The Biden Administration's priority is dealing with geopolitical challenges from Russia and China. Calming things down is their main objective.

• If China manages to use its influence with Iran to help settle conflicts in the Middle East, it would be beneficial for both countries. It would also take some pressure off of US-China relations since they share an interest in creating stability in that region.

Ambassador Thomas Pickering on US Diplomacy

In this section, Ambassador Thomas Pickering joins the discussion by phone to talk about his experience as a US diplomat.

Ambassador Pickering's Experience

• Ambassador Pickering has served as a US diplomat for over four decades.

• He believes that diplomacy is essential in resolving conflicts and building relationships between countries.

• Diplomacy requires patience, persistence, and the ability to listen to different perspectives.

• The United States needs to rebuild its diplomatic corps and invest in training future diplomats.

China's Interests and Equities in Ending the War in Ukraine

This section covers China's interests and equities in ending the war in Ukraine, as well as whether or not China could play a role in conflict resolution in Eastern Europe.

Background of Russia-China Relationship

• Russia and China have both differences and cooperative endeavors.

• There is potential for differences re-emerging on the China-Russia border due to political strains rather than deeply held territorial differences.

• There is a sensitivity in Russia that is highly racial and very deeply suspicious of Chinese particularly moving into Siberia for trade.

Pro-Russian Posture

• Putin's intention of moving militarily signaled by an alliance without limits with Russia having full control over Ukraine and perhaps Moldova.

• Ended with support for Russia in the Security Council which continues, and it ended with the beginnings of Chinese support for limited weapons to Russia.

Stalemate Conflict Status

• The war is currently at a stalemate with each side promising a coming offensive.

• Objectives of both sides remain directly different: Ukraine wants to recover all Ukrainian territory including Crimea while Russia wants to take all of Ukraine.

Russia-China Relations and Proposals for Resolving the Conflict

This section discusses Putin's objectives in relation to China, Chinese proposals for resolving the conflict, and how they compare to Zelensky's proposals.

Putin's Objectives

• Putin is fending off anything that looks like he has collapsed under China's leadership.

• He has not contested anything coming out of the two meetings he had with President C.

• He has resiled from what he would call an equal seat at the Russia-China table.

Chinese Proposals

• The first proposal was respect for sovereignty, territorial contiguity, and independence.

• The second proposal was to abandon the Cold War mentality and treat security as too complex to be easily rectified even at the negotiating table.

• The third proposal was a cessation of hostilities to end killing, wounding, and destruction.

• The fourth proposal was to resume peace talks which had begun but died away with Russian withdrawal from Kiev and Har kiv and Ukrainian successful offensive for Early Autumn.

• The fifth proposal was to resolve the humanitarian crisis on the basis of neutrality and impartiality.

• The sixth proposal was to protect civilians and prisoners of war.

Comparison with Zelensky's Proposals

• There are serious differences between China's 12 proposals and Zelensky's 10 proposals.

• A number of Russian thoughts and ideas do not match with China's.

Chinese Proposals Continued

This section continues discussing Chinese proposals for resolving the conflict.

Confidence Building Aspects

• POW exchanges

• Keep nuclear power plants safe

• Reduce strategic risks

• No nuclear weapons should be used or fought over

• Facilitate grain exports continuation of quadruparte ideal

• Support Ukrainian exports but presumably also Russia grain exports and Russia's interest in fertilizer exports

• Stop unilateral sanctions

• Pressure won't stop the conflict and it just causes damage to civilian populations

• Keep open industrial and other supply chains in the world economy

• Promote reconstruction for the post-conflict period

Final Thoughts

This section provides final thoughts on the conflict.

Impact of Chinese Proposals

• So far, very little impact on the parties either by China or anyone else.

• The Chinese 12 proposals do not match with Zelensky's 10 proposals.

• China has taken advantage of producing something under which ambiguity seems to work from their perspective in favor of trying to garner a wider degree of support.

Countries with Positive Effect on Ending Conflict

• If you were to ask significant observers about which countries might have the most positive effect on ending the conflict in the relatively near term, you would have to include the U.S., China, and perhaps...

The Role of the US and China in Conflict Resolution

In this section, Ambassador Pickering discusses the need for cooperation between the US and China in conflict resolution efforts. He also highlights the importance of bringing forward points and issues that may not be immediately useful but can aid in preparations for a solution.

Cooperation with China

• The US should consider maintaining areas of cooperation with China even amidst growing differences.

• The State Department favors keeping open the door to elements of cooperation.

• There is controversy surrounding whether there is room for both the US and China to work towards solutions in certain areas.

• It is important to seek ways to make cooperation more amenable to US interests.

Shifting Alignments and Mediation Efforts

In this section, Danny Russell discusses how China's growing global interests are changing its position on international mediation. He also explores how this plays out against the backdrop of strained US-China relations.

China's Diplomatic Approach

• China has immensely competent diplomats who know what they're doing.

• Historically, China's approach to diplomacy has been self-interested and narrowly focused on protecting its own interests.

• Despite changes, these attributes can still be seen in China's approach to mediation.

Chinese Interests in Mediation

• It would be a mistake to overlook the fact that China is investing heavily in international mediation efforts.

• Russell believes that one reason for this investment is that it aligns with Chinese interests as a rising power on the global stage.

• China's interest in mediation is also driven by a desire to protect its own interests and clients.

US-China Relations

• The open question is how the US will react to an increased role for China in international mediation efforts.

• Russell believes that strained US-China relations make it difficult for the two countries to work together on mediation efforts.

• It remains to be seen whether the US can make space for China to play a more active role in conflict resolution.

Chinese Diplomacy and Multilateralism

This section discusses China's approach to multilateralism and diplomacy, focusing on its value-neutral stance towards human rights and democracy. It also highlights China's comfort with dictators and its traditional role as part of a broader multinational diplomatic effort.

Chinese Diplomacy Approach

• The Chinese approach focuses heavily on power holders in relevant countries rather than stakeholders more broadly.

• Chinese diplomacy is value-neutral or even amoral, not bound up with moral precepts like human rights, democracy, or protection of civil society.

• China's comfort with dictators has been an asset to it in diplomacy.

• Beijing has been most comfortable traditionally as part of the pack in a broader multinational diplomatic effort.

China's Role in Multilateral Institutions

• China provided the venue for talks involving multiple parties such as North Korea and the six-party talks.

• Beijing was more about calming things down than solving problems or getting at underlying issues.

• China can claim credit for being a responsible global actor while protecting its interests or those of its clients.

Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)

This section discusses how BRI has driven China's overseas presence and investment since 2013. It also highlights how BRI has forced Beijing to be less passive about safeguarding its own interests.

BRI Impact on China's Overseas Presence

• BRI has been a huge driver of China's overseas presence and investment.

• BRI has given China expat workers and huge economic interests to protect, something it didn't previously have.

• BRI has forced Beijing to be less passive about safeguarding its own interests.

Changes in China's Diplomacy

• China is fielding a significant cohort of special envoys for various regions, which is new.

• As China gains more confidence in its mediation abilities, its approach to various problems that impinge on its own interests can become much more assertive and aggressive.

China's 12 Principles for Peaceful Coexistence

In this section, the speakers discuss China's 12 principles for peaceful coexistence and their relevance to current political issues.

China's 12 Principles

• The Chinese announced the 12 principles shortly after Putin's invasion of Ukraine.

• The Biden Administration has difficulty taking China's claims to be committed to sovereignty and territorial integrity at face value due to Putin's actions in Ukraine.

• The accusation that the US strives for perfect security at the expense of everyone else is a pretty accurate characterization of Putin's argument.

• Only with the active involvement of the US could Ukrainians believe that a negotiating framework might be fair, and only with Xi Jinping's help could Putin perhaps have the same view.

Difficulties in Guaranteeing a Deal with China

In this section, the speakers discuss potential difficulties that may arise in guaranteeing a deal with China and how opacity can benefit diplomatic negotiations.

Potential Difficulties

• There is some opacity on what the terms of this deal are, as well as on China's role in this entire process.

• Ambassador Indick hints that there will likely be difficulties faced by China in guaranteeing such a deal.

• Eventually, it will become clear whether or not China has affected reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran or if it is just papering over an old conflict.

Opacity in Diplomatic Negotiations

• Opacity and ambiguity have advantages in diplomatic negotiations, as they provide flexibility and running room for managing difficulties that may arise.

China's Role in Resolving Conflict Between Iran and Saudi Arabia

In this section, the speaker discusses the role of China in resolving conflicts between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The speaker explains that while China's influence with these two countries is limited, both Iran and Saudi Arabia have a mutual interest in bringing China into their conflict for their own reasons.

The Role of China

• The idea that China could resolve centuries of conflict and competition between Iran and Saudi Arabia is far-fetched.

• Both Iran and Saudi Arabia want to bring China into their conflict for their own reasons. For Iran, it is a way of escaping US sanctions on Iranian oil sales. For Saudi Arabia, it is a way to balance its dependence on the United States for security.

• There is tension in the relationship between Saudi Arabia and the United States, which has led the Saudis to seek to balance their relations with Russia and China.

• While inviting China into the Gulf in a political diplomatic way, Saudi Arabia is also asking the United States for a security guarantee.

Common Interests

• The Saudis and Iranians have a momentary common interest in looking to China to reduce conflicts they are facing.

• Reducing tension serves Iranian interests as well since it wants to relieve pressure from significant internal dissent.

Sanctions' Effect on Partner Willingness to Negotiate

In this section, Ambassador Pickering discusses how international sanctions affect partner willingness to negotiate. He also talks about how Russia and Ukraine are not willing partners at present but negotiating via battlefield instead of peace talks.

Sanctions' Effect on Partner Willingness to Negotiate

• International sanctions, particularly US sanctions that have hit the Iranian and Russian economies hard, play into partner willingness to sit down and talk.

• Sanctions create a hegemon trap where dealing with foreign countries becomes difficult.

China's Role in Pressure Campaigns Against Russia and Iran

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The Role of Sanctions in Foreign Policy

In this section, Ambassador Pickering discusses the role of sanctions in foreign policy and their limitations.

Sanctions as a Crude Weapon

• Sanctions are a crude weapon, just like the use of force.

• They have the capacity to create as much disadvantage as advantage within their application.

• Targeted sanctions do not play a significant role in influencing the outcome of leaders whose travel is restricted.

• However, targeted sanctions can affect economic health and create unhappiness among the population.

Congress' Approach to Sanctions

• The Congress deeply wishes to run the world and believes it has a god-appointed mission to do so.

• The constitutional limitation is that they can only do what they expect to do by majority vote as long as the president goes along with it.

• This has led Congress consistently through successive sanctions often ending up with the executive branch as a way of dealing with problems.

Limitations of Sanctions

• We are not yet capable of adjusting sanctions in a way that makes pros so much better than cons.

• It creates islands of antagonism, unhappiness, dyspepsia, and indeed forceful opposition in places where it only works to our disadvantage.

• Adaptation is particularly problematic when China becomes a trading partner to more countries in the world.

China's Interest in Mediation on Korean Peninsula

In this section, Danny asks Ambassador Pickering about China's interest in mediation on the Korean Peninsula.

China's Leverage

• China has almost unlimited leverage over North Korea.

• However, it has used very little of it to affect North Korea's nuclear development.

Differences in Mediation Interests

• Danny asks how China's interest in mediation on the Korean Peninsula differs from some.

China's Relationship with North Korea and the US

In this section, the panelists discuss China's relationship with North Korea and the United States. They explore why China opposes North Korea acquiring nuclear weapons, how sanctions against North Korea are aimed at degrading its ability to fuel its nuclear and military growth, and how North Korea serves as a buffer for China against U.S. pressure.

China's Opposition to Nuclear Weapons in North Korea

• China opposes the acquisition of nuclear weapons by North Korea because it borders an underdeveloped region that concerns the central government in China.

• The Chinese nightmare is the United States co-opting the entirety of the Korean Peninsula and presenting a dagger to the soft underbelly of China.

• Accepting a nuclear North Korea is simply a price that China has no alternative but to swallow.

Sanctions Against North Korea

• Sanctions against North Korea are arguably an exception to the rule because they aren't really aimed at modifying North Korea's behavior.

• The sanctions are aimed at degrading North Korea's ability to fuel its nuclear and military growth, depriving it of nutrients, creating barriers to its expansion, and denying it benefits from the international system while it is in defiance.

Buffer Role of North Korea for China

• North Korea serves as an airbag that can absorb threats and impacts of U.S. pressure from China.

• If having that buffer means that North Korea has nuclear weapons, which keeps U.S. military focused on them rather than on China, then so be it.

• Many people in China believe that all American resources dedicated to watching or undermining North Korea should instantly shift to focus on China if freed from that burden.

Advancing Accommodation Between the US and China

In this section, the panelists discuss ways to advance accommodation between the US and China. They explore how domestic audiences constrain Biden's actions, how dissident interests can come together on shared interests where the public may be more supportive rather than opposed to accommodations, and the role of petrodollars in Middle East oil business.

Domestic Audiences Constrain Biden's Actions

• Biden has to be aware of domestic audiences that he needs to play to.

• She also needs to play to sentiment on the street.

• Many different things could be done to advance some accommodation between us and China.

Dissident Interests Coming Together

• Given geopolitical issues, what are some ways that we can see an opportunity for these dissident interests to come together on shared interests?

• The public may be more supportive rather than opposed to accommodations.

Role of Petrodollars in Middle East Oil Business

• The petrodollar plays a significant role in Middle East oil business.

Petrodollar and Domestic Audience Expectations

In this section, the speakers discuss the implications of trading in RMB as opposed to USD for oil trade. They also talk about domestic audience expectations in the US and China and whether there is an opportunity for alignment between the two publics.

Implications of Trading in RMB

• If China follows through on their announcement to trade in RMB instead of USD for oil, it will have a marginal impact on the dollar as a reserve currency.

• It could benefit China by reducing the role of USD as a reserve currency.

• However, it is not seen as a significant threat at the moment.

Domestic Audience Expectations

• The US administration should make a virtue of necessity and bring the public along by saying that they are getting China to carry its weight in maintaining stability in the Gulf, which is also in China's interest.

• The US should get China to do its part in stopping fighting and working towards resolving conflicts like Ukraine.

• There is an argument that could bring the public along without using language that plays well only with American audiences.

Chinese Proposal Towards Conflict Resolution

In this section, Ambassador Pickering talks about how China's proposal towards conflict resolution is important regardless of whether it succeeds or not.

Importance of Chinese Proposal

• Regardless of whether or not it succeeds, China's proposal towards conflict resolution is important because it aims to end a dangerous conflict that postulates nuclear weapon use.

• The proposal aligns with what we favor in many cases.

Importance of US-China Cooperation

In this section, the speaker emphasizes the importance of cooperation between the US and China in addressing global issues such as pandemics and climate change.

The Need for Cooperation

• The speaker believes that it is important for the US and China to work together to address global issues.

• There was a real agreement with China on how they could cooperate in climate change.

• Taiwan has intervened in its own remarkable way, but it will not be easy to find common ground.

• The speaker recommends closer looks inside the U.S policy community.

Positive Alignment of Interests

In this section, the speaker highlights areas where there is a positive alignment of interests between the US and China.

Areas of Alignment

• There is a substantive alignment of interest between the U.S and China in conflict resolution also in these other Global issues whether it's food security energy security climate change and pandemic preparedness and Recovery.

Conclusion

In this section, the speaker concludes by thanking panelists for their discussion and inviting attendees to consider attending future programs at Asia Society.

Thank You & Future Programs

• The speaker thanks panelists for an excellent discussion.

• Attendees are invited to consider coming back for more programs at Asia Society.

• Follow Asia Society on social media platforms.