2025 Lecture Series - Trading In High Resistance Liquidity Run Conditions With My Lunch Macro

2025 Lecture Series - Trading In High Resistance Liquidity Run Conditions With My Lunch Macro

Market Commentary and Trading Insights

Introduction to the Day's Challenges

  • The speaker introduces a voice-over commentary, explaining that it follows live commentary during a trading session. Technical issues with HVAC and personal distractions made the day challenging.

Market Analysis and Trading Strategy

  • Discussion of using an inversion Fair Value Gap and bearish breaker as part of the trading strategy. The speaker expresses a desire to see bullish trends turn bearish for potential trades.
  • Acknowledges high resistance conditions in the market, indicating difficulty in executing trades effectively due to tight price ranges.

Order Management and Expectations

  • The speaker sets specific price targets (21,835 to 21,825) for potential trades while maintaining a limit order below these levels for unexpected opportunities.
  • Reflecting on missed opportunities, the speaker regrets not taking partial profits when prices dipped below certain lows due to distractions from ongoing HVAC discussions.

Market Conditions Impacting Trades

  • Highlights external factors such as upcoming Fed chair testimonies and high-impact news contributing to market volatility, complicating trading decisions.
  • Emphasizes risk management by adjusting stop losses based on market behavior while expressing frustration over missed trade setups.

Final Thoughts on Trading Day

  • Concludes that despite challenges, some profits were made ("pizza money"), but overall it was a difficult trading day characterized by manipulation and resistance.
  • Continues attempts to capitalize on lower price targets while managing risks associated with current market conditions.

Reflections on Trade Execution

  • Discusses extending orders based on observed market behavior while remaining cautious about potential losses due to stubborn price action within identified gaps.
  • Expresses contentment with taking partial profits but remains vigilant about further movements in the market.

Managing Expectations Amidst Volatility

  • The speaker aims for clarity in observing price actions rather than fixating on specific targets, suggesting flexibility in approach amidst uncertainty.

Trading Strategies and Personal Reflections

Adjusting Trading Positions

  • The speaker discusses the strategy of adjusting positions to minimize potential losses, emphasizing the importance of not taking full profits before being stopped out.
  • A specific example is given where one contract is taken off to manage risk effectively, allowing for a more controlled approach in volatile market conditions.

Managing Stop Losses

  • The speaker mentions lowering stop losses aggressively to a recent short-term high, indicating a proactive approach to protect gains or limit losses.
  • There’s an acknowledgment that if the price reaches this level, it would be time to exit the position entirely.

Personal Challenges During Trading

  • The speaker shares personal challenges faced during trading, feeling overwhelmed by distractions at home rather than just market volatility.

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Government Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN Trading performance displayed herein is hypothetical. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance trading results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results. U.S. Government Required Disclaimer – Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. Trade at your own risk. The information provided here is of the nature of a general comment only and neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person’s investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. You should seek appropriate advice from your broker, or licensed investment advisor, before taking any action. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Simulated performance results contain inherent limitations. Unlike actual performance records the results may under or over compensate for such factors such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses to those shown. The risk of loss in trading can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. If you purchase or sell Equities, Futures, Currencies or Options you may sustain a total loss of the initial margin funds and any additional funds that you deposit with your broker to establish or maintain your position. If the market moves against your position, you may be called upon by your broker to deposit a substantial amount of additional margin funds, on short notice in order to maintain your position. If you do not provide the required funds within the prescribed time, your position may be liquidated at a loss, and you may be liable for any resulting deficit in your account. Under certain market conditions, you may find it difficult or impossible to liquidate a position. This can occur, for example, when the market makes a “limit move.” The placement of contingent orders by you, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders.