Reality Of 'Vishwaguru' | What Has India's Foreign Policy Achieved Under PM Modi? | Akash Banerjee

The State of India Under Modi: A Critical Analysis

Overview of Modi's Tenure

• Prime Minister Narendra Modi will complete 12 years in power by May 2026, during which numerous issues have been raised and suppressed.

• Many promises made by the government are perceived as "jumla" (empty rhetoric), with the middle class burdened by taxes while awaiting better days ("ache din").

Economic Discontent

• The common man is still waiting for the promised Rs 15 lakh, with initiatives like "Make in India" failing to materialize on the ground.

• Despite reported GDP growth, citizens feel disillusioned due to a lack of job opportunities and salary increases.

National Image and Global Standing

• There is a belief that under Modi, India has become a global leader ("vishwa guru"), contrasting with its previous obscurity before 2014.

• The narrative suggests that world leaders now seek India's counsel; however, this perception may not align with reality as many countries do not openly support India against adversaries like Pakistan.

Foreign Relations Challenges

• Growing concerns arise over India's relationships with neighboring countries and allies like Russia, who may side with China instead.

• For global dominance, a strong economy and modern military are essential; however, India's current strategic position appears weak despite claims of strength.

Strategic Investments at Risk

• India faces isolation globally without strategic partners or military bases left. Countries like Pakistan and China are exploiting this vulnerability.

Iran's Political Climate and U.S. Pressure

• Protests in Iran have resulted in significant loss of life; amidst this turmoil, the U.S. seeks to increase pressure on Iran through sanctions.

Trade Dynamics with Iran

• Trump's administration threatens additional tariffs on countries trading with Iran, complicating India's existing trade relations worth ₹15,000 crore annually.

Loss of Strategic Projects

• India's investment in Chabahar Port is jeopardized under U.S. pressure; this port was crucial for accessing Afghanistan and Central Asia while bypassing Pakistan.

Implications for Regional Connectivity

• Chabahar Port was integral to connecting Mumbai directly to Russia and Europe via Iran—its loss represents a significant setback for India's regional influence.

Chabahar Port: Strategic Importance and Current Challenges

India's Engagement with Chabahar Port

• The proximity of Gwadar Port in Pakistan, developed by China under the Belt and Road Initiative, highlights the strategic importance of India’s control over Chabahar Port to counterbalance Chinese influence in the region.

• An MoU was signed in 2015, leading to India taking operational control of one terminal at Chabahar from 2018. A significant 10-year agreement was reached in May 2024, securing India's long-term presence at this port.

• Despite initial successes, fears of US sanctions have led to a loss of control over Chabahar for India. The Indian Ports Global Limited (IPGL), responsible for operations there, has seen resignations due to these pressures.

Sanctions and Operational Challenges

• Directors from IPGL resigned amid concerns about US sanctions; their details were removed from the company website to avoid individual sanctions.

• A six-month waiver on US sanctions was granted until October 2025, allowing continued operations at Chabahar. However, uncertainty remains regarding future tariffs imposed by the US on countries dealing with Iran.

Impact on Foreign Policy

• India's foreign policy is increasingly influenced by American decisions; despite efforts to strengthen ties with the US under Modi's leadership, recent developments indicate a dependency that undermines India's strategic autonomy.

• Modi's close relationships with past US presidents have not translated into favorable outcomes for India; instead, tariffs and restrictions have increased.

Regional Dynamics and Isolation

• The current geopolitical landscape shows that India is reliant on American approval for its regional actions. This raises questions about India's sovereignty in decision-making processes related to foreign affairs.

• Modi's government appears less vocal about international conflicts involving China or Pakistan compared to previous years, indicating a shift towards silence amidst perceived failures.

Pakistan's Growing Alliances

• There is concern over why Modi avoids mentioning Pakistan following recent attacks; this suggests a potential diplomatic shift or concession regarding Pakistan’s role in regional security dynamics.

• Historical context reveals that after military actions against Pakistan post-Uri attack, global support for India has waned while nations like Turkey and Azerbaijan openly supported Pakistan.

Emerging Defense Alliances

• Recent developments indicate that countries such as Turkey are forming defense alliances that could complicate any future military operations by India against Pakistan. This creates an environment where multiple nations may respond collectively if conflict arises.

By structuring these notes around key themes and timestamps from the transcript, readers can easily navigate through critical insights regarding India's strategic position concerning Chabahar Port and its broader implications within international relations.

Turkey's Strategic Moves Against India

Turkey and Pakistan Alliance

• Türkiye is attempting to corner India on the Kashmir issue in international forums while forming a formal alliance with Pakistan, indicating potential involvement in future conflicts.

• The formation of an Islamic NATO is perceived as a growing threat to India's position, with Pakistan gaining allies while India loses them.

India's Isolation

• Despite efforts by the Modi government to isolate Pakistan since 2016, India finds itself increasingly isolated on the global stage.

• The loss of strategic military bases, such as Tajikistan's Ayni airbase, highlights India's diminishing influence in Central Asia due to non-renewal of agreements.

Regional Sentiments and Relations

• Public sentiment in Nepal has turned against Indian governmental intimidation, leading to a shift towards China for better relations.

• Bangladesh's political landscape has become anti-India following Sheikh Hasina's ousting, leaving India unable to intervene effectively.

Challenges from Neighboring Countries

• Sri Lanka is balancing relations between India and China under its new government, while Maldives' election of Mohamed Muizzu signals a decline in pro-India sentiments.

• China's ambitions extend beyond Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh into Shaksgam Valley, raising concerns over territorial integrity.

Diplomatic Dynamics with China

• Recent closed-door meetings between the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and BJP raise questions about India's diplomatic strategies amidst growing tensions.

Pakistan's Growing Influence

Military Cooperation with China

• Pakistan maintains strong ties with both the U.S. and China; during Operation Sindoor, it received military support from China against Indian movements.

Engaging Unlikely Allies

• In an attempt to counterbalance Pakistan’s influence, India engages with the Taliban despite their history of opposition towards Indian interests.

The Reality Check for India's Foreign Policy

Perception vs. Reality

• Over the past 12 years, exaggerated claims by Indian foreign policymakers have led to public disillusionment regarding India's global standing.

Future Implications

• With recent reality checks from various nations exposing vulnerabilities in India's foreign policy approach, there are concerns about how the Modi government will respond moving forward.

Understanding National Dominance

Economic and Military Strength

• The speaker emphasizes that a strong economy leads to international respect, while modern military capabilities instill fear in other nations. Current challenges exist on both fronts for the country.

• There is a discrepancy between GDP figures and actual ground realities, indicating economic struggles. The country is still looking to purchase Rafale jets after a decade, highlighting delays in modernization.

Political Distractions

• The government lacks substantial achievements to discuss, focusing instead on divisive topics like religion and culture. This shift diverts attention from pressing issues such as air quality and public health crises.

• With upcoming elections in Bengal and Assam, the narrative around infiltrators will resurface, distracting citizens from global isolation concerns. The government appears to benefit from this political climate of hatred, keeping people preoccupied with divisive politics.