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Tech Finally Slides, But Regionals & RUT Catch A Bid
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Tech Finally Slides, But Regionals & RUT Catch A Bid

Introduction

The speaker introduces the episode and encourages viewers to like, comment, subscribe, and visit their website for swing trading alerts and analysis.

Episode Introduction

  • The speaker introduces the episode as being from Wednesday June 7, 2023.
  • Viewers are encouraged to like, comment, subscribe, and visit the speaker's website for swing trading alerts and analysis.

Market Update

The speaker provides a market update on technology stocks and cloud software.

Technology Stocks Down

  • Technology stocks are down almost 2%, with big tech experiencing a lot of money flow out.
  • Cloud software is particularly affected, with IGV down over 3% on the day.
  • IGV is back testing an old trend line from January 2022 to the 100 week moving average.

Don't Chase Names

  • The speaker warns against chasing names in the current market.
  • Many cloud names have experienced significant losses in just one day of trading.
  • Examples include Microsoft down significantly and Adobe down over 3%.

Tesla Resistance Zone

  • Tesla is up but looks top heavy due to resistance in its current zone.
  • A fib from previous pivot shows resistance at a 618 level.
  • The speaker advises against chasing Tesla or buying calls on it.

Money Rotation

  • While technology stocks are experiencing a sell-off, other sectors such as Russell are up by 2% on the day.
  • Dow is also up about a third of a percent while spiders are down about a third of a percent.
  • There is some money rotation happening in the market.

Bear Pattern on Monthly Chart

-The Russell has been trading in tandem with Dow lately but still has bear pattern on monthly chart below that 20 month moving average.

-The Russell may go up to that weekly red bar at 190, 192.

Market Analysis

The speaker discusses the current state of the market and provides insights into various sectors.

Industrial and Transport Sectors

  • Industrials are up nicely, which has a good percentage in the RUT.
  • Transports are having a nice day.

Follow Through and Leading the Market

  • Finally seeing follow through, which is a good sign.
  • To lead the market, transports need to be leading and not making lower highs since February.

Bull Market and Recession

  • There's talk about some new bull market, but it would be the first bull market to start with an inverted yield curve.
  • Back half of the year looks like we're going into a recession.

Short Squeeze and Liquidity

  • The market going up seems like a big short squeeze due to too many people positioning themselves as bearish.
  • Liquidity that the fed put in behind closed doors in March may have contributed to this as well.

Triple Qs

  • Triple Qs down 1.7% may want to test 20 moving average at 340 area.
  • Watch from 190 to 192 for cues of Russell.
  • Dow is holding up at 340 and then maybe 343 if it really gets a bit.

Nvidia and IGV Technical Analysis

The speaker discusses the technical analysis of Nvidia and IGV.

Nvidia

  • Expectation to fill the gap, with a possibility of reaching 195 to 200 later this year or quarter one next year.
  • Holding up despite a good outside move down, but still waiting for higher volume.

IGV

  • Took a hit today down 3%, probably wants the 20 moving average as well.
  • Next level of support is at previous high of 317. If it goes lower, then it's probably down to about 305 and then 300.

Market Update

The speaker provides an update on various markets.

XHB and ITB

  • XHB continues to power up here, home builders having a really good run here. It may want to go up to around red bar high at around 77. ITB same thing, although it did come nicely off the highs.

NQ Green

  • Testing top here which has been noted as a good POC since October, under the 100 maybe overshoot to the 200 then talk about 8550.

VNQ and XL F

  • VNQ up almost 2% XL F up by only39 basis points still lower highs until proven otherwise.

KRE and KBE

  • KRE obviously up three and third into resistance here at45 be careful with it would not own it KBE same thing into some resistance although this isn't in little bit better shape than KRE.

XBD

  • Powered through 460, nice move there. Close above the 100. Watch 460.

Crude

  • Up by 1.18 nothing's changed, don't love the pattern, think it's going lower. It'll be a buying opportunity later this year is not much else to say about it.

XLE and XOP

  • XLE had a nice day though up to 2.67 so 2 and two-thirds closing back above the50 MA which is positive here but still not anything to get too excited about until you get really above this red bar, but bare minimum, you got to get above that50 week moving average there on a weekly close.
  • XOP stalling at the100 will need to see a little bit more out of these in the OAH tested R280 level. We got all the way up to283. There's your200 MA.

Nat Gas

  • Channel continues to be supported closed above that little breakdown bar there which is a sign of strength here.

Nat Gas, DXY, Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium and Copper

In this section, the speaker discusses various commodities including natural gas, DXY (US Dollar Index), gold, silver, platinum, palladium and copper.

Nat Gas

  • Natural gas is showing a good sign.
  • The speaker is interested in some of these plays here.
  • EQT had an open order but sometimes the market does not follow through.

DXY and Precious Metals

  • The US Dollar Index (DXY) is up taking though it was down earlier.
  • There is nothing wrong with the consolidation pattern for DXY.
  • Gold is down one and a quarter here. It's rejecting the 20MA on the daily and looking softer on the weekly.
  • Silver failed breakout of the 20MA that backed off as well.
  • Platinum also right into that little necktie 50 and 20MA and then backing off of that.
  • Palladium would like to get this below double bottom.

Copper

  • Copper stalling at the 200 moving average.
  • If it consolidates it can push up to 390 but right now that's all the upside.

Bitcoin

  • Bitcoin all over the map again.
  • Yesterday there was an impressive reversal but half of that reversed today.
  • The speaker wouldn't do anything with it at the moment.
  • There may be a downside bias depending on the pattern here.

Spiders

  • Watch out if you take this low out on volume because there's a good chance that this will go down.
  • Volume is light so they can keep this held up.
  • Fed Blackout period means no data this week except for initial jobs claims tomorrow.
Video description

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