VIDEO
HIGHLIGHT
Log InSign up
VENDI R$ 60 MIL DE UM FII E FIQUEI ISENTO DE PAGAR IMPOSTO DE RENDA | Por que estou vendendo FIIs?
SummaryTranscriptChat

VENDI R$ 60 MIL DE UM FII E FIQUEI ISENTO DE PAGAR IMPOSTO DE RENDA | Por que estou vendendo FIIs?

Analyzing the Divergence Between Ibovespa and IFIX

Current Market Trends

  • The Ibovespa index is experiencing a series of highs, reaching historical records, while the IFIX remains lateralized around 3380 points.
  • The Selic rate cycle began in August last year, currently paused at 10.5%, with speculation about potential increases in upcoming meetings.

Interest Rates and Real Estate Funds

  • Real estate funds are more influenced by long-term interest rates rather than short-term fluctuations from the Copom meetings.
  • Despite record tax revenues from January to July totaling 1.3 trillion, there remains a deficit due to higher expenditures than income.

Fiscal Dynamics and Inflation Concerns

  • Continuous deficits lead to increased debt issuance; as debt grows without changes in fiscal dynamics, investors demand higher interest rates.
  • A depreciating currency is observed, with the exchange rate rising from below R$5 to approximately R$5.50 since January.

Impact of U.S. Interest Rates on Brazil

  • Expectations of falling U.S. long-term interest rates could make Brazil more attractive for international investments due to higher local yields.
  • High domestic interest rates (currently at 10.5%) may stabilize the dollar-to-real exchange rate and help control inflation.

Inflation Metrics and Future Projections

  • July's inflation exceeded market expectations at 0.38%, pushing annual inflation up to 4.5%, which is at the Central Bank's upper target limit.
  • The Focus Bulletin indicates no change in terminal Selic projections for 2024 but anticipates higher inflation forecasts for subsequent years.

Market Speculations on Future Rate Changes

  • XP has raised its Selic forecast from 10.5% to 11.75% by year-end, predicting further increases into next year.
  • Upcoming Copom decisions are highly debated; options show division among analysts regarding whether rates will be maintained or increased.

Economic Insights on Interest Rates and Market Trends

Current Interest Rate Dynamics

  • The disparity between high domestic interest rates and declining foreign rates could allow Brazil to maintain inflation within or below the target ceiling.
  • The Chicago Mercantile Exchange indicates a 63.5% probability that the Fed funds rate will decrease by 0.25 percentage points in September, with a remaining 36.5% chance for a half-point drop.
  • There is speculation whether Brazil should raise its Selic rate while the U.S. lowers its rates, or if it can wait to assess the impact on currency and inflation.

Market Reactions and Predictions

  • The Brazilian stock market's rise is attributed to investors anticipating the U.S. interest rate cuts, leading them to invest in various sectors.
  • A notable decline in long-term U.S. Treasury yields correlates strongly with movements in the Brazilian stock market; historical data shows significant gains when these yields fall.
  • In late 2022, a similar trend occurred where falling U.S. Treasury yields led to substantial increases in the Ibovespa index.

Implications for Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)

  • If long-term interest rates decrease due to falling U.S. rates, this could positively affect real estate investments linked to physical properties.
  • An increase in Selic may benefit paper funds tied closely to CDI but could also lead to rising inflation despite a stronger dollar.

Future Outlook on Inflation and Monetary Policy

  • Post-Roberto Campos Neto's tenure, there are concerns about potentially more lenient monetary policies that might allow inflation to rise without increasing Selic significantly.
  • For paper funds linked to inflation, this scenario could enhance yield potential for investors.

Portfolio Management Strategies

  • Emphasizing diversification within investment portfolios is crucial; particularly highlighting the importance of including paper funds as part of one's strategy.
  • MyProfit is recommended as an effective tool for managing investment portfolios and tax declarations related to real estate investments.

Performance Overview of Investment Portfolio

  • A detailed look at current portfolio allocations reveals significant exposure across various asset classes including FOF (fund of funds), paper funds, and logistics properties.
  • The majority of investments focus on dividend-generating assets from debt structures associated with real estate markets.

Dividend Analysis and Investment Strategy

Overview of Dividend Income

  • The speaker discusses the average price paid for investments, noting a monthly return of over 1%, which is a goal for many investors.
  • In August, dividends received amounted to R$5,587.50, with April being the best month at over R$6,000 in dividends.

Performance of Real Estate Funds

  • Among real estate funds, only one (RECM) is currently at a loss; others show varying degrees of profit.
  • The speaker highlights that many paper funds distribute most earnings monthly while real estate funds may appreciate in value over time.

Comparative Returns and Benchmarks

  • The portfolio has generated a total yield of 24.9% since inception but lags behind Bitcoin and S&P 500 returns.
  • Currently outperforming the Ibovespa and IFIX indices; however, there are moments when it surpassed all benchmarks.

Market Conditions Impacting Investments

  • Despite falling interest rates in the U.S., fiscal instability could lead to higher long-term rates affecting real estate asset prices.
  • The speaker considers increasing exposure to paper funds while ensuring purchases are made at favorable prices.

Fund Selection Criteria

  • A list of ten paper funds is presented for analysis based on their price-to-book ratios and dividend yields.
  • Emphasis on diversification within portfolios; preference for inflation-linked assets over those tied to CDI due to potential future economic conditions.

Risk Management Strategies

  • Discussion on the importance of aligning fund investments with inflation rather than solely relying on CDI returns.
  • Current holdings include PLCR and KSC, both showing strong performance metrics related to risk-return balance.

Valuation Insights

  • Observations about various funds trading above their book values indicate market perceptions versus actual asset valuations.

Investment Strategies and Tax Implications in Real Estate Funds

Overview of Investment Decisions

  • The speaker discusses purchasing financial assets at prices above their intrinsic value, exemplifying this with a note valued at R$ 1 being bought for R$ 103, R$ 105, or R$ 104. They express a preference for acquiring it at lower prices (R$ 98 or R$ 93).
  • A comparison is made between different funds, highlighting that PLCR11 pays higher dividends than KNSC and KRE. The speaker notes the importance of evaluating opportunities based on asset values.
  • The speaker reflects on their portfolio's performance, indicating that holding an asset priced above its intrinsic value may yield lower returns compared to cheaper alternatives.

Selling Strategy and Tax Considerations

  • Plans are outlined to sell KNSC and reinvest the proceeds into more attractive real estate funds with better exposure to IPCA rather than CDI.
  • The speaker shares personal investment history with KNSC, noting a significant gain from both dividends and price appreciation since buying at an average price of R$ 8.67.
  • If sold without any losses to offset gains, the speaker would incur a tax liability of approximately R$ 720 due to capital gains tax (20%).

Losses and Tax Compensation

  • The speaker mentions accumulated losses in real estate investments totaling over R$ 1,028 which can be used to offset taxable gains from selling KNSC.
  • They reflect on their long-term investment experience dating back nearly two decades, emphasizing the importance of tracking historical performance for tax purposes.

Filing Taxes and Future Investments

  • In discussing tax filings up until May of the current year, they reveal a reported loss of R$ 4,828.95 which allows them to sell KNSC without incurring additional taxes by compensating against previous losses.
  • The process of selling shares through an online broker is described as straightforward; they plan to execute orders for selling part of their holdings in KNSC while considering future investments in other areas like cryptocurrencies.

Educational Opportunities

  • An invitation is extended for viewers to join an educational course focused on financial literacy and investment strategies aimed at building diversified portfolios across various asset classes globally.
Video description

FAÇA SUA INSCRIÇÃO NO VIVER DE RENDA: https://r.vocemaisrico.com/0c9da20f59 Cansado de PERDER TEMPO com planilhas e declaração de IR? Assine agora mesmo a myProfit: https://myprofitweb.com/vocemaisrico @bruno_perini COMO FICAR RICO?: https://youtu.be/08QWOXkLIfw COMO EU COMEÇARIA A INVESTIR HOJE?: https://youtu.be/JdoBe9hXRTE BRADESCO: O BANCO MAIS BARATO PARA COMPRAR AGORA?: https://youtu.be/pNvpUTfqy24 POR QUE OS CARROS ESTÃO TÃO CAROS?: https://youtu.be/XeNwUuy9syk ALUGAR OU FINANCIAR UM IMÓVEL?: https://youtu.be/qD8fo6SDvq8 VENDI R$ 60 MIL DE UM FII E FIQUEI ISENTO DE PAGAR IMPOSTO DE RENDA | Por que estou vendendo FIIs? Enquanto o Ibovespa vem numa sequência de altas, atingindo seu recorde histórico, o IFIX se mantém lateralizado há meses, com algumas oscilações ao longo do caminho, mas nada que o faça escapar dessa faixa em torno dos 3.380 pontos, no momento em que gravo este vídeo, 3.388 pontos. E aí fica a pergunta: "Caramba, por que o Ibovespa disparou enquanto o IFIX permanece estagnado?" No passado, o pessoal acreditava que, durante o ciclo de queda da Selic, que começou em agosto do ano passado — ou seja, temos praticamente um ano desde o início desse ciclo, que agora está pausado com a Selic em 10,5% — os fundos imobiliários iriam reagir mais rapidamente. Como veremos mais à frente neste vídeo, muitos imaginam que, na próxima reunião do Copom, a Selic possa subir novamente. Mas o ponto é que, apesar dos fundos de papel reagirem à Selic, os fundos imobiliários são muito mais influenciados pelas taxas de juros de longo prazo, aquelas dos títulos que vencem em 30 anos, 15 anos, por exemplo, e não por essa ponta curta da curva, que pode mudar a cada 45 dias em uma reunião do Copom. Essas taxas de longo prazo são fortemente afetadas por questões estruturais no Brasil, como as fiscais, e os fundos imobiliários reagem a essas taxas. No vídeo de hoje vou comentar toda essa dinâmica dos juros de longo prazo e a precificação dos Fundos Imobiliários, entrar na minha Carteira, realizar uma venda, e comentar os motivos que me levaram a vender um dos meus ativos. #brunoperini #fiis 00:00 POR QUE ESTOU VENDENDO MEUS FIIs? 00:20 Por que os Fundos Imobiliários não dispararam? 01:05 Risco Fiscal 03:00 Inflação no país 03:30 Os juros vão subir? 05:30 Os juros americanos vão cair 06:25 É por isso que a Bolsa está subindo 07:20 O que vai acontecer com os FIIs? 08:00 Maior Yield nos Fundos de Papel? 08:20 Minha Carteira de Fundos Imobiliários 10:15 Quanto recebi de dividendos? 11:13 Lucros e prejuízos nos meus FIIs 12:00 Rentabilidade da Minha Carteira 13:00 Os Fundos de Papel estão baratos? 13:30 Analisando alguns fundos imobiliários 14:30 Por que eu prefiro os Fundos indexados ao IPCA? 14:45 Os Fundos de Papel da Minha Carteira 15:25 Os fundos estão caros? 16:50 Por que vou vender o KNSC11? 17:35 Vou pagar imposto? 19:15 Vendendo na Prática 20:15 Oportunidade