Weekly Forex Forecast April 16th 2023. Possible Dollar Bounce, equites pullback?

Introduction

The speaker introduces themselves and the topic of the video, which is an analysis of the market using the Elliott wave principle.

Analysis Methodology

The speaker explains that their primary method for analyzing the market is the Elliott wave principle, which tracks growth psychology and sentiment based on supply and demand. They also mention that repeatable patterns can be useful in this type of analysis.

Inter-Market Analysis

The speaker discusses recent US CPA data and how it affected the US dollar. They also mention that there were speculations about a rate hike by the Fed, which could impact stocks.

• The speaker recommends checking out their services for new Forex analytics users.

• The US yields increased while US nodes fell, with stock trading sideways within an uptrend.

• The Aussie Q remains weak while pound and euro try to hold gains.

• There may be a risk of flows causing Aussie and kiwi to suffer more.

• Credit tightening conditions may slow down economic activity, potentially bringing down inflation.

S&P 500 Analysis

The speaker analyzes the S&P 500 from an Elliott wave perspective and observes a potential triangle pattern. They also discuss how credit tightening conditions could impact stocks.

• Stocks may not break resistance easily due to speculation about another rate hike.

• VIX Index suggests a potential pullback on S&P 500.

• Three waves up suggest resistance may not be far away for Bulls.

Short-Term Cycles

The speaker discusses short-term cycles and how Bulls are struggling with overlapping price action.

• Bears may see some more pullbacks on the S&P 500.

US Dollar and Dollar Index Analysis

The speaker discusses the recent performance of the US dollar and provides an analysis of the dollar index. They also discuss potential bullish and bearish scenarios for the dollar index.

Dollar Index Analysis

• The speaker compares the current price action of the dollar index to historical trends, noting that it has respected the upper side of a channel and seen a sharp reversal.

• From an Elliott wave perspective, the speaker predicts a potential wave B selloff or even a wave 5 selloff, but expects some recovery regardless.

• The speaker notes that there is support at around 100 level due to trendline support.

• The speaker suggests two interpretations based on current price action: either a seven-swing pattern or potentially forming a double bottom.

Euro Dollar Analysis

• The speaker notes that while euro dollar is in an uptrend, they predict something more complex could occur as it moves into ongoing correction.

English Euro, Pound, and Aussie Analysis

In this section, the speaker analyzes the Euro, Pound, and Aussie currencies. They discuss potential trends and patterns in each currency's performance.

Euro Analysis

• A failure breakout suggests that Bulls are losing strength.

• The lower trendline will be watched for support.

• If a new high is reached, potential tops may form with a wedge formation.

• The Euro index shows potentially limited upside with a wave 5 forming.

Pound Analysis

• Inflation in the UK is still high at 9.8%.

• Central banks have more work to do if inflation remains above 10%.

• A new push higher may occur if inflation figures come out below 10%.

• There is a fifth wave present, suggesting a reversal may occur soon.

Aussie Analysis

• Commodity currencies like the Aussie are weak.

• There is definitely a bearish trend present in the Aussie market.

• Five waves down suggest there was a temporary top in place and more weakness could follow.

Expecting More Upside for Stocks and Gold

In this section, the speaker discusses the potential for more upside in stocks and gold, but also notes that corrections are not finished yet. They analyze the movements of Aussie and Kiwi currencies, as well as gold and silver.

Potential for More Upside in Stocks and Gold

• The speaker expects more upside for both stocks and gold.

• Corrections are not finished yet, so there may be temporary setbacks before further gains.

• The Kiwi may do better than the Aussie if there is a risk of loss.

• If Kiwi holds resistance and turns to downside, then Aussie shorts could work much better.

Analysis of Gold

• There is still plenty of room for more upside on the daily chart.

• However, a new corrective setback may occur due to overlapping price action on the four-hour timeframe.

• A wedge pattern or ending diagonal in this fifth wave suggests a strong opposite reaction if trendline support breaks at start of next week.

• Minimum three-wave correction occurs at former swing highs from this year.

Analysis of Dollar Yen

• New Bank of Japan Governor will not make any changes to policy actions yet.

• Weakness will eventually resume due to impulsive drop in January 2021.

English Key Resistance Levels and Market Analysis

In this section, the speaker discusses key resistance levels and market analysis for the upcoming week.

Key Resistance Levels

• The speaker will be tracking the 61.8% level around 1.3510 on the four-hour chart.

• A retest of this level is expected, and if it holds, there could be a strong sell-off.

• If the resistance does not hold and continues to move upwards, then the upper channel parallel channel will be broken towards 140.

Dollar Yen Analysis

• The Nikkei's trendline of resistance is trying to break out of a triangle pattern, indicating bullishness in the market.

• This could lead to an increase in dollar yen trading as well as other yen pairs like euro yen or pound yen.

• However, traders should still be cautious with dollar yen due to its correlation with U.S yields.

Commodity Markets

• Commodity markets such as CAD/JPY and MXN/JPY may perform well due to bullish crude oil trends.

• Crude oil has seen a breakaway gap above trendline resistance, indicating a new recovery mode that could last temporarily until wave A or wave B is completed.

• There may be some slowdown coming soon as current levels reach January 23 levels around 83.84.

Final Thoughts

• The speaker advises caution when trading in these markets due to potential gaps being filled after pullbacks.

Potential Pullback in Crude Oil

In this section, the speaker discusses the potential for a pullback in crude oil and presents an alternate count suggesting that there may be a wave 4 pullback followed by even higher prices.

Key Points:

• The speaker suggests that there could be a potential pullback into wave B.

• An alternate count suggests that there may only be a wave 4 pullback before prices continue to rise.

• The speaker believes that more upside will be seen in crude oil after the gap is filled.

Conclusion and Call to Action

In this section, the speaker concludes their presentation and encourages viewers to like, share, and subscribe to their channel.

Key Points:

• The speaker thanks viewers for their attention and hopes they enjoyed the presentation.

• Viewers are encouraged to like, share, and subscribe to the channel so they don't miss any future content.

Sign Off

In this section, the speaker signs off from the video.

Key Points:

• The speaker says goodbye to traders and thanks them for stopping by.

• No additional information is provided in this section.

End of Video

This section marks the end of the video.

Key Points:

• No additional information is provided in this section as it marks the end of the video.