ICT Forex Price Action Lesson: Orderflow & Volume Imbalances
Secrets to Volume and Price Delivery
The speaker discusses the contrast between retail support resistance, trend following, and interbank order flow. He aims to challenge the audience's thinking and introduce them to a more pure perspective on price delivery.
Interbank Smart Money
- The speaker tracks interbank smart money.
- He teaches his private group how to forecast price moves that occur every three to four months.
- His mentorship is ongoing and has been refined since 1996.
Precision-Oriented Trading
- The speaker looks for specific things in price action that are highly precise.
- He promises unrivaled precision in his teachings.
- There is no obligation to buy his mentorship.
Market Maker Cell Model
- The five-minute fractal is a market maker cell model.
- The speaker provides additional value by contrasting his free tutorials with his mentorship teachings.
Keeping Comments Closed
In this section, the speaker explains why he keeps the comments closed on his YouTube videos and offers a bounty for anyone who can find evidence of his teachings prior to 1996.
Discrediting Attempts
- The speaker does not babysit the comment section of his YouTube videos.
- Many people try to discredit him by hating on him because they cannot keep up with his teachings.
Bounty Offered
- The speaker has put out a $100,000 bounty for anyone who can find evidence of his teachings prior to 1996 in writing or video.
- He is confident that no one else has this information besides himself.
Price Delivery and Trading Beliefs
In this section, the speaker discusses how price is delivered and how it differs from what traders are taught to believe. He also talks about how indicators can be hindrances rather than helpful tools.
Diametrically Opposed Views
- The way price is delivered is 100% diametrically opposed to what traders are taught to trust and believe.
- Traders are told to believe in supply and demand, support and resistance, higher highs, higher lows, etc., but these tools are actually hindrances and blinders.
Indicator Limitations
- When traders apply indicators to their charts, they think like retail traders.
- Regardless of whatever discipline of trade theology they use, they believe that the tools applied to their chart give them some foresight or prognostication.
- However, these beliefs are often misguided as evidenced by the speaker's own experience with RSI and stochastics indicators failing him in the past.
Mentorship Students' Feedback
In this section, the speaker talks about how mentorship students provide feedback on his teachings and how to determine if he is lying or not.
Feedback from Mentorship Students
- The speaker's mentorship students can see this video because it is public.
- If what the speaker is saying in this video is false, his mentorship students will give him a thumbs down rating on the video.
Determining Truthfulness
- If there are thousands of thumbs down ratings on the video, it means that the speaker's mentorship students are telling others that what he is saying in this video is absolutely false and that he is lying and a fraud.
- However, since the speaker does not have thousands of YouTube channels nor has time to create them and thumbs down his own videos, such a scenario would be unlikely.
Quarterly Shifts in Markets
In this section, the speaker discusses how markets seek yield and move up and down gyrating every three to four months. He also explains how he points out where these moves are likely to occur but does not provide specific buy/sell signals.
Significant Price Swings
- Every three to four months, there is a significant price swing in any market being looked at.
- The speaker's job as a mentor is to point out where these moves are going to occur and where they're likely to go.
- However, he does not provide specific buy/sell signals as he is not licensed to do so.
Bias and Quarterly Shifts
In this section, the speaker talks about bias and quarterly shifts in price movements. He explains why he specializes in day trading and short-term trading.
Bias and Short-Term Trading
- The speaker specializes in day trading and short-term trading because he doesn't want to hold overnight positions with a lot of risk.
- He uses low leverage examples to make it easier for new students to relate.
- The speaker has a good track record of calling specific things every week.
Quarterly Shifts
- Every three to four months, there is a large magnitude price move that can create selling opportunities.
- The speaker asks viewers to consider what ideas would lend well to creating a selling opportunity in retail thought when looking at the June highs in the dollar.
- Support and resistance are important factors to consider when looking for selling opportunities.
Bear Flags
In this section, the speaker discusses bear flags as continuation patterns.
Bear Flags as Continuation Patterns
- A bear flag is a long decline followed by consolidation where everything is going slightly higher before breaking down.
- When it breaks down, it usually repeats the same leg in terms of price range from the low up to the high once it breaks this level.
- Proper context is necessary for bear flags or any continuation pattern to work effectively.
Market Rigging
- Markets are rigged and will go where they're programmed to go regardless of what you believe or your system says about price action.
- Understanding how price is delivered can help traders determine market direction.
[ICT Mentorship] Understanding Price Action: Volume Imbalance
In this video, the speaker explains how he uses volume imbalance to anticipate price movements. He also discusses the importance of precision in trading and contrasts his approach with common technical analysis methods.
Technical Background
- The speaker has a background in computer science and mathematics, which informs his highly technical approach to trading.
- He became interested in understanding why his trading strategies were not working and began reverse engineering retail theology.
- Common technical analysis methods rely on patterns like harmonic waves, order blocks, supply and demand zones, and support/resistance levels.
Precision Trading
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of high hit rates and being "in the know" when engaging with price movements.
- He argues that simply aiming for a favorable risk-reward ratio is not enough if you are not accurately predicting market movements.
- The speaker believes that traders should aim for high accuracy rather than simply accepting low hit rates.
Volume Imbalance
- On June 10th, 2020, the speaker outlined a concept called volume imbalance that he teaches in his mentorship group.
- A volume imbalance occurs when there is a segment of price action where there is no trading activity. This can be seen as a difference between the closing price of one candle and the opening price of another candle.
- Traders can use volume imbalances to anticipate price movements back towards that segment of price action.
Overall, this video provides insights into how traders can use volume imbalances to make more accurate predictions about market movements. The speaker emphasizes the importance of precision and contrasts his approach with common technical analysis methods.
Using Candlestick Bodies to Anticipate Price Movement
In this section, the speaker explains how to use candlestick bodies to anticipate price movement and why it is more effective than using binoculars or magnification.
Using Candlestick Bodies
- When using binoculars or magnification, you are not getting a clear depiction of what price is likely to do.
- Instead, use the bodies of the candles to anticipate price movement.
- There are procedures and protocols for using wicks, tails, and bodies in trading concepts.
- The speaker focuses on a specific concept where there is a small gap between the bodies of two candles.
- On June 10th, the speaker drew attention to an area where they anticipated price trading up into it before rolling over.
- They were bearish on the dollar and anticipated lower prices due to global events affecting its value.
Trading Foreign Currencies with Predictable Volatility
In this section, the speaker discusses how large moves in dollar can lead to huge potential gains in foreign currency trading. They also explain why they prefer trading certain currency pairs over others.
Predictable Volatility in Foreign Currency Trading
- Large several hundred pip moves in dollar can result in significant gains in foreign currency trading.
- Certain currency pairs like cable (British pound vs US dollar) have predictable volatility that makes them attractive for trading.
- Other pairs like swissy (Swiss franc vs US dollar) can be finicky and less predictable.
- The speaker used to trade swissy as a futures contract but stopped after getting burned when it was d-pegged from euro.
Managing Risk and Leverage for Consistent Results
In this section, the speaker emphasizes the importance of managing risk and leverage in trading to achieve consistent results. They also explain that it's not about how many pips you earn but what you do with them.
Managing Risk and Leverage
- It's not about how many pips you earn but how you manage risk and leverage for consistent results.
- The goal is to measure a constant result and return on the engagement placed in price.
- Even though large moves like shorting dollar can lead to significant gains, it's not necessary to achieve success in trading.
- The speaker prefers making 10 pips a day consistently over chasing big moves.
- It's important to use leverage within reason and manage risk effectively.
Fair Value Gap and Liquidity Pools
In this section, the speaker discusses fair value gap and liquidity pools in trading.
Fair Value Gap
- The fair value gap is in balance during a period of equal lows.
- Once there is a displacement higher, the algorithm moves too fast and does not allow time for any real selling to occur between the high and low candles.
- All of this should be rebalanced in the future.
Sell Side Liquidity Pools
- Sell side liquidity pools are resting below with sell side liquidity and sell stops.
- These levels have liquidity framed on the basis of if the price goes lower it's the sellers that are being attacked.
- Smart money will be looking to buy from these levels because they're short and could have a short.
Big Figure Levels
- When markets sweep below or above a big figure, they will do it in specific grades: 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30 pips.
- If we were looking at the 92 big figure we could reasonably expect it to trade around 20 pips below or above it.
Price Delivery Algorithm
In this section, the speaker explains how price delivery works through algorithms.
Volume Imbalance
- There is volume imbalance calling that high and this high is here volume imbalance there.
- That's not support resistance; that is price delivery.
- It's an algorithm going back to points of reference that it needs to refer to cause market efficiency.
Repricing Below Lows
- The algorithm was going to reprice below this low and target a level down here.
- We knew about it for months now so you can investigate it and study all the price action between here and there.
Changing Mindset and Mentorship
In this section, the speaker talks about how he changes his mind frequently and how it affects his teaching. He also discusses the difference between providing an example and mentorship.
Changing Mindset
- The speaker mentions changing his mind frequently about what to talk about in the video.
- He explains that these changes have already happened, so students should not be upset.
Mentorship vs Example
- The speaker differentiates between providing an example and mentorship.
- He provides an example of how he uses his experience to provide a framework for his students.
Volume Imbalance and Fractal Analysis
In this section, the speaker talks about volume imbalance and fractal analysis as tools for trading.
Volume Imbalance
- The speaker introduces volume imbalance as a tool for trading.
- He shows how bodies respect it in a chart.
Fractal Analysis
- The speaker explains that he looks at the full fractal when analyzing price moves.
- He asks viewers to count down candles versus up candles in a fractal segment of price action from high to low, with black representing down closed candles and green representing up closed candles.
Trading Mastery
In this section, the speaker talks about mastery in trading and why it cannot be condensed into one video or solution.
Mastery in Trading
- The speaker emphasizes that mastery in trading cannot be condensed into one video or solution due to its complexity.
- He explains that there are many moving parts and things that lead to mastery.
Bias in Trading
- The speaker discusses how bias is the easy part of trading.
- He encourages viewers to count down candles versus up candles in a fractal segment of price action from high to low, with black representing down closed candles and green representing up closed candles.
Trading Strategies for Up Close Days
In this section, the speaker discusses trading strategies for up close days and how to study them.
Understanding the Algorithm
- The algorithm operates within a specific logic and context.
- It is important to understand the context in which the algorithm will operate.
- Similar signatures can be found in every three to four month price move in any market.
Developing a Bearish Bias
- Having a bearish bias gives traders an 80% advantage.
- Waiting for new york setups and bearish optimal trade entries are recommended.
- Engaging with the market efficiency paradigm is key.
Market Efficiency Paradigm
- The interbank traders' perspective on levels is crucial.
- Harmonic patterns that are bullish frame supply and demand areas as demand zones.
- Interbank price delivery algorithm (IPTA) controls everything that happens in the marketplace.
Trusting Types of Moves
In this section, the speaker emphasizes trusting types of moves and understanding how they unfold over time.
Discipline of Waiting
- Waiting for these types of moves to unfold in higher time frames is essential.
- Engaging with market efficiency paradigm helps forecast where it's going to go with precision.
Forecasting with Precision
- Understanding signatures in price action helps forecast with precision where it's going to go.
- Using other tools made available by the speaker on his YouTube channel can help operate with unmatched precision.
Programmed Markets
In this section, the speaker explains how markets are programmed and delivered with premeditated ideas.
Premeditated Ideas
- Markets are programmed and delivered with premeditated ideas.
- Understanding these signatures in price action can help forecast with precision where it's going to go.
- The algorithm is the interbank price delivery algorithm (IPTA) and controls everything that happens in the marketplace.
Trading Discipline
- Using trading discipline is key.
- Not all theologies will agree, and they will come in and out of favor.
- Markets use a specific discipline of trading that is neither supply and demand, Elliott wave, nor Dow theory.
Precision Trading
In this section, the speaker emphasizes precision trading using his tools and understanding market efficiency paradigm.
Precision Trading
- Understanding signatures in price action helps forecast with precision where it's going to go.
- Using other tools made available by the speaker on his YouTube channel can help operate with unmatched precision.
- Engaging with market efficiency paradigm helps forecast where it's going to go with precision.
Understanding Candlestick Patterns
In this section, the speaker discusses candlestick patterns and how to use them for trading.
Candlestick Patterns
- The speaker points out a low candle and explains how it dropped down to hit the high end of the fair value gap.
- He talks about an immediate rebalance and how it can be used for trading.
- The speaker uses an analogy of throwing an axe at a tree to explain why just watching videos won't work without proper mentorship.
- He emphasizes that understanding why the market is going where it's going takes time and mentorship.
Finding Your Unique Niche in Trading
In this section, the speaker talks about finding your unique niche in trading and how everyone has a different way of interpreting success.
Success in Trading
- The speaker explains that everyone has a preconceived idea of what makes them successful in trading.
- He emphasizes that there is no cookie-cutter approach to training or trading concepts.
- The speaker encourages traders to find their own unique way of doing things by using his teachings as a foundation.
- He mentions that people have been distracted from the truths in price because they are too busy defending their ideas against others.
Understanding Price Movement
In this section, the speaker discusses understanding price movement and how large orders of commerce affect certain levels.
Price Movement
- The speaker explains that when prices trade through a figure, they don't stop directly at the whole number but anticipate stopping around predetermined levels where large orders of commerce are grouped around.
- He emphasizes that these levels are not psychological but rather based on liquidity placed at or just above or below these levels.
Understanding Down Close Candles
In this section, the speaker discusses how to identify opportunities for selling when there is a big down close candle.
Identifying Opportunities for Selling
- A big down close candle presents an opportunity for selling.
- The midpoint of the candle and the low are the sweet spots where the next continuation is likely to occur.
- The algorithm divides the previous day's range in half, and that low on this candle to that midpoint of that candle is the operating range that the macro will work within.
- The delivery will start when this candle is open and trade up into the range of half to the low of the previous candle.
Analyzing a 15-Minute Time Frame
In this section, the speaker analyzes a 15-minute time frame and explains how it relates to his market maker cell model.
Analyzing a 15-Minute Time Frame
- From here to here down to here, that is a five-minute ICT market maker cell model.
- It's not like off it's not harmonic it's not dow it's not anything. It's exactly how he teaches it.
- Price starts right away higher and trades up into that first lower level below which is over here.
- It trades back up into that low here and then stretches beyond because it has to get above these levels here to take out that liquidity.
Using Smart Money Reversals to Manage Entries and Stops
In this section, the speaker teaches how to use smart money reversals to frame entries and manage stops.
Identifying Smart Money Reversals
- The last up-close candle in a price swing is the smart money reversal.
- Look for down closed candles prior to the smart money reversal where the curve changes from buy side to sell side.
- All the down closed candles match up with a move on the right side of the highest candle.
Market Maker Buy Model and Sell Models
- When anticipating lower prices, look for the market maker sell model.
- The market maker sell model is a pattern that forms in a bearish environment.
- Selling with this pattern in mind increases your likelihood of catching a runner.
Precision in Trading
- The speaker's concepts are specific, precise, unambiguous, and to the pip.
- There is zero potential for improvement upon these concepts.
- Other schools of thought such as supply and demand zones involve guessing where you're working to enter.
Applying Concepts to Price Movements
In this section, the speaker applies his concepts to price movements.
Market Maker Sell Model
- Look for all displacement on the downside trading down to the top end of an old fair value gap shown on a daily chart.
- The low of a down close candle matches up perfectly with the high of another candle.
- This level of precision cannot be found in any other school of thought.
Uncertainty in Trading
- There will be periods where there's uncertainty about which way price will go.
- During these times, it's important to give your interpretation of price while also disclosing that you're not participating in any trades at that moment.
Understanding Algorithmic Trading
In this section, the speaker explains how algorithmic trading works and why it is important to understand what the algorithm is doing.
The Importance of Understanding Algorithmic Trading
- Algorithmic trading is like a fingerprint of what the algorithm does every day.
- It's important to understand what the algorithm is doing and why it's doing it.
- When a buying point breaks down, any buying point has to be mitigated.
Mitigation Block and Specific Levels
- A mitigation block becomes necessary when a buying point breaks down.
- Specific levels can be identified on a five-minute chart by extending out in time from a down closed candle prior to a run-up.
- A selling opportunity can be identified by looking for buy-side liquidity resting above highs and bearish order blocks inside an up-close candle that overlaps with a mitigation block.
- The sweet spot for selling is at 70.5, which is optimal trade entry.
Fair Value Gap and Support Resistance Level
- Price reaches down into the 92 big figure bounces and creates another rebalance to the fair value gap level.
- Liquidity void or price vacuum refers to real support resistance level that precedes both speakers' work.
- The fair value gap concept has an imbalance element that belongs solely to the speaker's work.
- The goal post constantly moves, but concepts are static so that algorithms can understand what they should do next.
- Price breaks into the fair value gap and trades down to the midpoint of that range.
- The speaker's work is about convincing everyone that books, courses, and educators are regurgitating things not linked to how price is booked.
Conclusion
- To find market setups, look for real support resistance levels like those identified in this video.
- The speaker's life's work is about exposing people to what price is always doing but has never been exposed to before.
Understanding Market Trades
In this section, the speaker talks about how he has been telling the truth all along and how many people have doubted him because he was using demo accounts for his own protection. He explains that market trades go down to the bottom of fair value and then plunge through it due to liquidity being built up below that fair value.
Liquidity Void
- The speaker explains that there was a lot of liquidity being built up below the fair value.
- This liquidity void was shown on the daily chart way back in the past.
- The price reaches into the 80 level multiple times reprices back above and through.
Trading with One Minute Chart
- The speaker challenges cynical people to go through his YouTube channel videos where he is actually trading with a one-minute chart.
- He uses a lot of these ideas and things that he's never going to teach.
- There are certain things he's not allowed to teach.
Top Down Approach
- The speaker talks about understanding how time frames work from a higher time frame down to a lower time frame top-down.
- He has looked at every school of thought, but they were still lacking in filling all the huge chasms in logic that would constitute a system that is repeating over and over.
- He challenges viewers with this thought: if every single one of these ideas and schools of thought for trading were really what makes markets move around, why is it that everyone who gets into trading jumps from each one of them over the course of development?
Algorithmic Trading
- The speaker emphasizes that his content works because it's algorithmic; you don't have any control over the algorithm, it does what it's going to do, and it does not matter or respect your theology.
- He knows when he's likely to be wrong and when that's going to occur, so he scales back his trading or completely sits on his hands.
- He knows when his edge is likely to cleave off to the sweetest of the meat which is closest to the bone.
Conclusion
- The speaker challenges viewers to go back and look at the 20 trading executions or examples he gave for the optimal trade entry pattern recognition series.
- His content works in futures, index, and even commodities markets like soybean market.
Mentorship Program Details
In this section, the speaker provides details about his mentorship program and how to join.
Invitation to Join
- The speaker invites viewers to join his mentorship program.
- He promises to provide unique insights that are not found in textbooks or courses.
- Viewers will be notified of the invitation through a video on YouTube on December 21st.
Cost and Payment Details
- The cost of the mentorship program is $155 per month payable by PayPal only.
- There are 12 payments of $155 each, with one final payment of $150 as a charter member payment.
- Payments are due at the first of each month, with a grace period until the 9th. If payment is not received by then, access is removed until payment is made.
- Once the charter member payment is made, there will never be any additional payments required unless there is a need for account changes or password recovery.
Access and Expectations
- The mentorship program provides access to a private community where all teachings will be provided.
- YouTube videos will still be available for those who cannot afford the mentorship program.
- The speaker does not offer scholarships but encourages viewers to study his free content if they cannot afford the program.
Sell Here That's Not What I Do
In this section, the speaker explains why he does not provide signals and instead focuses on teaching people how to trade independently. He believes that providing signals can lead to addiction and prevent people from learning how to trade effectively.
Importance of Skill Set
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of having a skill set that allows individuals to trade independently.
- He shares his experience with buying a signal service and paying exorbitant rates for trades that did not work out for him.
- The speaker believes that once someone has a skill set, it is theirs forever, and no one can take it away from them.
Mentorship vs Signal Service
- The speaker compares mentorship to a signal service he provided in the 90s.
- He explains that mentorship empowers individuals by teaching them how to trade independently, while a signal service only provides trades without teaching anything.
- The speaker highlights the demand for his mentorship program and how it helps keep students on the right side of the market.
Transparency
- The speaker emphasizes his transparency when making videos and admits when he makes mistakes.
- He encourages viewers to go back and watch previous videos where he predicted turning points before they happened.
- The speaker speaks freely without a script but admits when he makes mistakes in his videos.
Conclusion
- The speaker concludes by encouraging viewers to use the tools he teaches in his free library and join his mentorship program if they want more long-form content.
The Importance of Evidence and Mentorship
In this section, the speaker emphasizes the importance of evidence-based thinking and mentorship in achieving success in trading.
Evidence-Based Thinking
- If you don't subscribe to evidence-based thinking, you won't be successful in trading.
- People who can't accept facts hate the speaker when he provides evidence.
- The speaker has a track record and evidence to prove his claims.
Importance of Mentorship
- The speaker started as a mentor in 2016 and has continued to grow since then.
- There is a difference between having someone who knows what they're talking about versus just watching YouTube videos.
- The speaker's accuracy in forecasting turns is proof that he knows what he's talking about.
Understanding Volume Imbalance
In this section, the speaker discusses volume imbalance and how it affects price action.
Volume Imbalance
- When there is a volume imbalance, price should sell off when it reaches a certain level.
- Not all gaps between close and open are volume imbalances.
- There is logic behind identifying volume imbalances.
Sharing Knowledge Through Teaching
In this section, the speaker talks about his passion for teaching and sharing knowledge with others.
Passion for Teaching
- The speaker has always wanted to teach and be a martial arts instructor.
- Trading is something that the speaker is passionate about above all else except for God.
- Creating this YouTube channel was a way for the speaker to compensate himself emotionally and psychologically for past mistakes.
Life Coaching Through Trading Education
- The speaker wants to be a mentor that teaches people how to trade well but also inadvertently becomes a life coach through his teachings.
- By sharing his own personal experiences, the speaker hopes to help others avoid making the same mistakes he did.
- The speaker finds teaching and helping others to be the most rewarding aspect of his work.