ICT Charter Price Action Model 7 - Universal Trading Model
Introduction to Price Action Model Number Seven
Overview of the Universal Trading Model
- The session focuses on sell-side low resistance liquidity runs and fractals within the context of a universal trading model applicable to various trading styles, including position, swing, short-term, day trading, and scalping.
Key Concepts in Sell-Side Liquidity
- This model emphasizes identifying higher time frame levels that absorb liquidity, specifically targeting sell-side market maker profiles which aim for lower price movements seeking liquidity.
Understanding Market Maker Profiles
Sell-Side Market Maker Profile
- The setup involves recognizing bearish conditions where the market is likely to move lower based on liquidity draws. Traders should identify targeted liquidity levels below current prices.
Liquidity Draw Mechanism
- When the market reaches a designated level of liquidity, it tends to move lower if higher time frames support this movement. This requires traders to stalk setups effectively.
Identifying Targeted Liquidity Levels
Range of Opportunity
- Once targeted liquidity levels are established below current prices, traders can define their range of opportunity by identifying equal lows indicating sell-side liquidity pools.
Fair Value Considerations
- The approach does not rely on classic support and resistance theories but rather waits for retracements back into original consolidation areas before looking for buying opportunities again.
Analyzing Market Movements
Breakdown Expectations
- After reaching higher time frame liquidity levels while maintaining a bearish outlook, traders expect price movements to break down below previous reaccumulation points.
Dynamic Moves Beyond Initial Targets
- If the market breaks through initial targeted levels significantly, larger dynamic moves may occur beyond just reaching those points due to sell stops being triggered.
Weekly Liquidity Distribution Profile Insights
Algorithmic Pairing of Orders
- The discussion includes how algorithms seek to pair previous buy-side and sell-side deliveries during market reversals. This requires experience as it involves understanding complex patterns in price action.
Focus on Reaccumulation Breakdowns
Understanding Market Structure and Liquidity
The Role of Fair Value Gaps
- Discussion on fair value gaps and the significance of old sell stops below swing lows, which can lead to new reaccumulation.
- Emphasis on targeting down closed candles for short positions due to potential mitigation effects that could knock out long positions.
Price Action Expectations
- Explanation of expected price movements: an initial rise followed by a decline, with focus on price accumulation.
- Insight into market behavior; one does not need to buy at every price level but should observe structural formations before entering trades.
Reaccumulation Insights
- Importance of understanding reaccumulation levels in relation to market structure breaks, particularly when analyzing sell-side models.
- Description of consolidation phases leading to buying opportunities, highlighting the significance of retracement points.
Experience and Market Entry
- Acknowledgment that identifying reversal points requires experience; small positions may be taken based on anticipated long-term highs.
- Clarification that low-risk entries necessitate high experience levels, emphasizing learning through practice rather than theoretical knowledge alone.
Liquidity Distribution and Market Structure Breaks
- Discussion about multiple reaccumulations and their implications for liquidity seeking; traders should focus on higher swing lows for market structure breaks.
- Highlighting the importance of understanding liquidity distribution profiles as unique insights into institutional trading strategies.
Unique Trading Insights
- Presentation of a distinctive approach to breaking market structures relative to specific price points rather than arbitrary highs or lows.
Understanding Market Dynamics and Liquidity Distribution
Transition from Pits to Electronic Trading
- The shift from physical trading pits to electronic platforms led to significant challenges for traditional traders, many of whom struggled to adapt.
- Tape reading was a crucial skill learned by commodity traders, involving the observation of ticker tapes that updated market prices every 10 minutes.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of internalizing price delivery mechanisms, suggesting that markets can be manipulated despite common beliefs about their size.
Market Structure and Breaks
- Understanding liquidity distribution is essential for identifying market structure breaks; not all chart patterns signify a break.
- Many traders misinterpret market structure breaks due to reliance on jargon without understanding the underlying criteria necessary for such classifications.
Market Maker Profiles
- A market maker's sell profile indicates potential bounces in bearish markets; recognizing these patterns is key for successful trading strategies.
- The speaker discusses the unpredictability of when a bounce will occur but stresses the importance of recognizing accumulation points after certain price levels are breached.
Analyzing Retail Sentiment
- Observing retail trader opinions through platforms like BabyPips or Forex Factory provides insights into market sentiment and helps refine trading strategies.
- By combining personal analysis with retail sentiment data, traders can gain a clearer perspective on supply and demand dynamics.
Clarifying Concepts in Trading
- The liquidity distribution model simplifies concepts like support and resistance, focusing instead on specific price points rather than ambiguous zones.
- Institutional price models taught in mentorship programs help clarify these concepts further, although details are kept confidential among members.
Reevaluating Wyckoff's Principles
- The speaker critiques traditional interpretations of Wyckoff’s methods, arguing they lack practical application without accompanying indicators or chart patterns.
Understanding Market Dynamics and Liquidity Distribution
Anticipating Market Movements
- The speaker discusses the current market conditions, anticipating a potential rally before a downward trend. This indicates an understanding of market cycles and the importance of timing in trading strategies.
Analyzing Premium and Discount Levels
- The concept of identifying premium and discount levels is introduced, emphasizing the need to map out these areas for buy-side liquidity. This analysis helps traders make informed decisions based on market structure.
Framework for Trading Decisions
- A framework is established for determining when to enter trades, focusing on understanding price behavior rather than relying solely on charts or indicators. This approach highlights the significance of liquidity distribution in trading.
Deepening Market Understanding
- The speaker acknowledges that while the content may seem dry, it provides a deeper appreciation for how liquidity operates within markets. This knowledge is crucial for recognizing market structure breaks versus stop runs.
Importance of Waiting in Trading
- Emphasizing patience, the speaker notes that successful trading often involves waiting for clear signals rather than acting impulsively. Understanding liquidity distribution aids in determining when to capitalize on opportunities.
Shifting Focus from Charts to Liquidity
- The discussion shifts from traditional chart analysis to focusing on liquidity distribution as a primary tool for decision-making. This perspective allows traders to understand underlying market dynamics better.
Recognizing Institutional Order Flow
- The importance of recognizing institutional order flow is highlighted, suggesting that larger funds operate with different time frames compared to retail traders. This insight can inform trading strategies by aligning with institutional behaviors.
Higher Time Frame Analysis
- A focus on higher time frame narratives (monthly, weekly, daily) is emphasized as essential for understanding broader market trends. Lower time frames are deemed less reliable due to their sporadic nature and short-term fluctuations.
Understanding Market Structure and Trading Strategies
Importance of Narrative in Trading
- The narrative is crucial for consistency and longevity in trading. Without it, traders may struggle to maintain a coherent strategy.
- Revisiting the video can clarify recurring questions that arise in forums or through personal inquiries.
Market Structure Breaks
- Many traders misunderstand what constitutes a market structure break, leading to repeated mistakes. It's essential to grasp this concept fully.
- The analysis shifts from daily charts to 4-hour and 60-minute time frames, allowing for a more refined approach to market movements.
Anticipating Market Movements
- From a daily perspective, there is an expectation of price distribution and selling as institutional order flow changes direction. This shift occurs after breaking significant swing lows on the chart.
- Liquidity runs are critical; once liquidity is taken out, the potential for upward movement diminishes significantly. Traders should be aware of these dynamics when analyzing charts.
Precision in Time Frames
- A focus on tighter time frames (4H or 60 minutes) allows traders to identify sell signals effectively as prices return to fair value levels indicated by down-close candles.
- Day trading strategies can be integrated into longer-term analyses by identifying key price points where liquidity draws occur before executing trades based on observed patterns over weekends and Mondays.
Resistance Levels and Liquidity Concepts
- Retail traders often misinterpret resistance levels; understanding external vs internal range liquidity is vital for accurate market predictions. This knowledge helps avoid common pitfalls associated with traditional resistance interpretations.
- Identifying bearish order blocks or liquidity voids can provide insights into potential price reversals during market run-ups, enhancing decision-making processes for traders looking for entry points at these levels.
Advanced Market Dynamics
- A qualified shift in market structure occurs when significant reaccumulation levels are breached, indicating potential larger distributions ahead if certain thresholds are crossed on the chart's left side curve. Understanding this helps anticipate future price movements accurately.
Insights from a Journey in Computer Programming and Trading
The Value of Early Training
- The speaker reflects on their training in computer programming and systems analysis, noting that despite not finding a job in the field, the experience provided valuable insights into technology.
- They mention creating macros in Lotus 123, an early spreadsheet program, highlighting how these small programs operate based on logical conditions.
Understanding Market Logic
- The speaker emphasizes that for markets to be controlled, there must be underlying logic and correct syntax; everything needs to function efficiently.
- They discuss the challenge of teaching algorithmic thinking to those without prior exposure to programming or technical concepts.
Importance of Algorithmic Thinking
- The speaker advocates for introducing computer programming in high schools as it provides students with a framework for understanding the algorithmic nature of various fields, including advertising and staffing.
- They acknowledge that while many books exist on algorithms, they may vary in accessibility and engagement.
Learning Curve and Patience
- The speaker reassures learners that understanding complex concepts takes time; initial exposure does not guarantee immediate comprehension.
- They encourage viewers to remain patient as they explore charts like the dollar Swiss chart, suggesting that familiarity will grow over time.
Analyzing Price Points and Liquidity
- Discussion about price ranges indicates a focus on specific liquidity points within market swings; understanding these is crucial for trading strategies.
- The importance of recognizing reaccumulation levels is highlighted; breaking down these levels can signal potential market movements.
Practical Application in Mentorship
- The speaker clarifies their approach to sharing trades and analysis, emphasizing practical application rather than simply buying low or selling high.
- They express commitment to mentorship despite being busy with inquiries from new traders seeking guidance.
Framework for Future Insights
- A framework is established for waiting on market signals before making trades; this involves recognizing distribution cycles at key liquidity points.
- The speaker notes that deeper learning will occur over time as more insights are gained through practical experiences.
Market Dynamics and Trading Models
Understanding Market Behavior
- The discussion emphasizes the importance of refining market predictions over time, particularly looking ahead to 2020 for more precise insights into daily and weekly market movements.
Market Maker Buy Model
- The concept of a market maker buy model is introduced, highlighting that during consolidation phases, the market seeks sell-side liquidity, potentially revisiting old highs or fair value gaps.
Short Selling Insights
- The speaker reflects on their initial misunderstanding of short selling, explaining how it involves selling assets one does not own with the intention of buying them back at a lower price.
Individual Perspectives in Trading
- Each trader has a unique perspective on price action; some may struggle to identify buying opportunities while being more attuned to short-selling signals.
Learning Process in Trading
- Emphasizes that understanding trading concepts is a gradual process developed over 26 years. New traders should allow themselves time to learn rather than expect immediate comprehension from single videos.
The Importance of Narrative in Trading
Institutional Focus on Liquidity
- Traders are encouraged to focus on liquidity narratives rather than just chart patterns. Understanding why liquidity matters can enhance trading strategies.
Price Action Models Overview
- Introduces two generic templates: the market maker buy model and sell model. These models illustrate typical price swings but may appear confusing without context.
Selecting Effective Models
- Out of twelve provided price action models, traders should focus on one that resonates with them for better understanding and application in their trading strategy.
Developing Your Trading Strategy
Personalizing Your Approach
- The speaker shares their journey from initially relying on specific indicators (like bullish divergence in stochastics) to developing an intuitive sense for identifying buying opportunities without those tools.
Patience in Learning
- New traders are advised to be patient; mastery takes time and often involves learning from failures before achieving success in trades.
Challenges Faced by New Traders
Common Misconceptions
- Many new traders prioritize quick fixes over deep learning, leading to losses when they fail to grasp underlying principles behind trading decisions.
Mentorship Value
- Highlights the importance of mentorship for new traders who might overlook foundational knowledge while seeking immediate results through charts alone.
Navigating Early Trading Experiences
Caution Against Live Trading
Liquidity and Market Dynamics
Understanding Market Liquidity
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of patience in trading, suggesting that rushing for profits can lead to poor decisions. Instead, being patient is more beneficial.
- A liquidity draw is anticipated below the market level, with potential scenarios including a bullish order block or a fair value gap influencing price movements.
Analyzing Price Action
- The speaker discusses various chart patterns and their implications, noting that each chart presents unique opportunities based on current market conditions.
- Engaging with price action over time is crucial for traders; understanding patterns requires extensive observation rather than quick consumption of educational content.
Trading Strategies and Setups
- The focus should be on identifying shorting opportunities rather than buying positions. Traders are encouraged to wait for setups that align with their strategies.
- Comfort in selling at specific levels is essential; traders do not need certainty about outcomes but should understand their models well enough to act when conditions are favorable.
Risk Management and Profit Taking
- Identifying targeted liquidity points helps traders decide when to take profits from short positions while remaining aware of potential market reversals.
- The concept of trading within uncertainty is highlighted; traders must adapt to evolving market conditions without rigid expectations.
Adapting Trading Models
- Scenarios where price action deviates from expected patterns require flexibility in strategy. If certain setups fail, it’s important to reassess rather than force trades.
- Different trading models serve foundational purposes; traders should find what resonates with them instead of trying to apply every model indiscriminately.
Learning and Development in Trading
- Feedback from learners indicates varying levels of comfort with different price action models. It's normal for some individuals to struggle initially before finding effective strategies.
Understanding Trading Mindset and Market Analysis
Navigating Uncertainty in Trading
- Acknowledges that feeling uncertain or confused about trading is normal, especially after a year of mentorship. It's important not to let these feelings discourage you.
- Emphasizes that traders should not feel less intelligent for needing more time to grasp concepts; understanding develops at different paces.
- Clarifies that traders do not need to predict multiple trades in advance; focus on current opportunities instead.
- Advises against overwhelming oneself with too many markets; concentrating on one or two pairs can enhance skill development and analysis.
- Warns about the potential demoralization from public scrutiny of trading opinions, suggesting they be kept private for personal study.
The Nature of Market Predictions
- Discusses the inevitability of contrary opinions in trading discussions, highlighting the importance of maintaining a contrarian perspective without immediate action.
- Shares personal experiences with being misunderstood online, using Bitcoin as an example where initial skepticism turned into validation over time.
- Reinforces that knowing market direction (e.g., bearish trends) is sufficient; predicting exact bounce points is unnecessary and often unattainable.
Strategies for Short Selling
- Introduces the concept of adopting a bearish mindset when looking for short-selling opportunities within market structures.
- Explains the significance of identifying levels of redistribution and accumulation for short positions based on relative strength analysis.
- Describes how correlated pairs can influence market movements, emphasizing the need to analyze relationships between different currencies (e.g., cable vs. euro dollar).
Analyzing Price Action Models
- Highlights the importance of recognizing price action patterns such as fair value gaps and sell stops during market declines.
- Discusses expectations around price behavior following consolidation phases, including potential returns to previous levels before further declines.
Market Analysis and Trading Strategies
Understanding Market Conditions
- The discussion begins with a focus on bearish market conditions, emphasizing the importance of identifying areas of distribution to seek liquidity as prices decline.
- It is highlighted that taking profits during uncertain price movements—whether bouncing, consolidating, or continuing lower—is a logical strategy.
Price Action Model Insights
- The speaker refers to a specific price action model (number six), indicating it took considerable time to develop and understand.
- A reference is made to the dollar Swiss pair, noting previous tweets about equal lows and highs which frame the current analysis.
Liquidity Draw and Chart Analysis
- The analysis transitions into examining a weekly chart for the dollar Swiss, pointing out equal highs and lows that indicate liquidity draws from various perspectives (long-term, medium-term, short-term).
- The speaker acknowledges hindsight advantages while stressing the need for viewers to refer back to prior commentary for context.
Market Maker Models Explained
- Two market maker models are introduced: the buy model showing consolidation followed by drops and rallies; and the sell model demonstrating similar patterns but in reverse.
- Consolidation zones are marked on charts, illustrating where liquidity pools exist above certain levels.
Seasonal Trends and Expectations
- Discussion includes expectations of dollar weakness leading up to October based on historical trends; this aligns with observed market behavior.
- A seasonal bullish trend for the dollar index is noted as transitioning from September into October, impacting trading strategies.
Anticipated Price Movements
- The conversation shifts towards potential bounce scenarios at key price points identified earlier in the analysis.
- Emphasis is placed on understanding where bounces may occur based on inefficiencies in selling pressure or running equal highs.
Final Thoughts on Trading Strategy
- A bullish order block around 9540 is established as a target level for potential trades based on previous discussions about price action models.
Trading Strategies and Institutional Order Flow
Understanding Short-Term Trading Dynamics
- The discussion revolves around different trading strategies, emphasizing the importance of focusing on buying when prices reach certain highs. This approach can be applied to day trading, scalping, or short-term trades.
- It is suggested that shorting during specific periods may reduce probabilities of success. While short trades are possible, they often contradict institutional order flow.
The Role of Institutional Order Flow
- The speaker references Chris Lori's perspective on maintaining a neutral bias in trading but emphasizes their own belief in understanding market tendencies rather than convincing others.
- Trading against institutional order flow limits expectations for success. Conversely, aligning with this flow can lead to increased speed and volatility in price movements.
Analogies and Mindset in Trading
- An analogy is made comparing traders to salmon swimming upstream; while it’s possible to go against the current (market), it’s not advisable as it leads to unfavorable outcomes.
- Emphasizing the need for a mindset aligned with market trends, the speaker argues that if prices are likely to rise, traders should avoid taking short positions.
Analyzing Price Action and Order Blocks
- Transitioning into daily analysis, the speaker identifies a weekly order block as a significant price level (9540), which serves as an area of interest for potential trades.
- Observations about relative equal highs indicate that price movements above these levels do not necessarily result in declines but may continue higher instead.
Identifying Rejection Blocks and Liquidity Pools
- A rejection block is defined based on previous resistance turning into support at specific price points (e.g., 9542). This area becomes crucial for future trading decisions.
- The concept of low-hanging fruit is introduced regarding potential trade opportunities near rejection blocks versus liquidity pools. Proximity plays a key role in determining where traders might focus their efforts.
Market Analysis and Price Action Strategies
Understanding Price Swings and Distribution
- The discussion begins with analyzing price swings in close proximity to a significant level, indicating previous selling activity. This is referred to as a "Judas swing," highlighting the importance of daily candles in understanding market behavior.
- The speaker emphasizes the significance of grading price swings and identifying consolidation levels. They mention that reaching the third grade often leads to missed opportunities as prices rush towards their terminus.
- Key points are made about distribution phases, where deep sell-offs occur after initial redistributions. Multiple scenarios for observing these price swings on different time frames (4-hour and 1-hour) are presented.
Identifying Trading Ranges
- A focus on defining trading ranges is introduced, particularly how they relate to initial distribution cycles. The expectation of selling off from an up-close candle into consolidation is highlighted.
- If prices rally instead of selling off, it negates the current profile, leading traders to reassess their positions or accept losses.
Analyzing Price Levels and Imbalances
- Specific price levels are analyzed: a high at 9724 and a low at 9747 indicate areas where sell-side offers exist. This range becomes crucial for determining support or resistance due to balanced buy/sell dynamics.
- Observations about seasonal tendencies affecting dollar strength are discussed alongside volume analysis based on candle bodies, emphasizing heavy distribution before reaching terminus.
Chart Analysis Techniques
- Transitioning to a 4-hour chart allows for clearer identification of predetermined terminus levels. The delivery of price post-trade into balanced ranges is examined closely.
- The concept of optimal trade entry is introduced through equal lows in charts, suggesting that new lows will likely lead to further distributions targeting liquidity below those lows.
Market Maker Models and Liquidity Runs
- An hourly chart review reveals patterns where prices break down but then rally back up into previously established balanced ranges before selling off again, indicating ongoing liquidity runs targeting lower levels.
Market Structure and Liquidity Dynamics
Understanding Market Structure Shifts
- The discussion begins with the identification of consolidation and reaccumulation phases, highlighting a market structure shift when prices break below key levels.
- A focus on liquidity points is emphasized, indicating optimal trade entries based on previous bullish candle formations and bear order blocks.
Price Action Models
- The speaker introduces price action model number six, which dovetails with model seven, illustrating how imbalances in price lead to liquidity runs targeting sell stops.
- The importance of recognizing fair value gaps is discussed, as they indicate potential areas for price retracement and optimal short-selling opportunities.
Consolidation Patterns and Trading Strategies
- A pattern of consolidation followed by rallies is noted, suggesting that significant sell-offs can occur after reaching certain liquidity levels.
- The speaker warns that deeper sell-offs may be expected if the market breaks down from established consolidation zones.
Calibration to Key Price Levels
- The analysis shifts to specific price levels around 9575, discussing how traders should calibrate their targets based on historical lows and potential swing trades.
- Emphasis is placed on not overcomplicating trading strategies; instead, focusing on achievable targets within a reasonable pip range enhances trading effectiveness.
Rebalancing Concepts in Market Dynamics
- The concept of market rebalancing is introduced as a fundamental principle driving price movements; understanding this helps traders align their strategies with market behavior.
- Fair value gaps are reiterated as critical indicators for assessing where the market might move next based on previous highs and lows.
Weekly Biases and Market Trends
- Observations about seasonal trends (e.g., September/October bullishness for the dollar) highlight how larger funds influence market biases through weekly chart analysis.
Understanding Weekly Analysis Techniques
Core Principles of Weekly Analysis
- The speaker emphasizes that the foundational concepts taught in models six and seven are crucial for conducting weekly analyses. These models encapsulate the core methodologies used in their analysis.
- The speaker asserts that they do not utilize any additional price action models beyond what has been taught, highlighting the simplicity and effectiveness of these methods for consistent weekly commentary.
- Everything shared in previous teachings contributes to the speaker's weekly analysis, indicating a strong reliance on established principles rather than introducing new complexities.
- Consistency is a key theme; if one aims to grasp even a fraction of these techniques, they can achieve reliable results in their analyses.