ICT Mentorship 2023 - Immediate Rebalance & Institutional Order Flow
Weekly Chart of the Dollar Index
In this section, the speaker discusses the weekly chart of the dollar index and how it has been performing.
Key Points:
- The speaker mentions that they have been calling the performance of the dollar index day by day.
- It is important to take notes and write down what is anticipated from lectures and price action.
- The next level on this up-close candle is mean threshold, which comes in at 104.54 if there is continuation on the upside.
Importance of Taking Notes
In this section, the speaker emphasizes the importance of taking notes while learning from ICT videos.
Key Points:
- Many people get caught up in watching videos but it's important to take notes.
- Writing down what is anticipated helps with backtesting purposes.
- Notes help to see what should be gleaned from lectures and price action.
Analysis of Weekly Chart Dollar Index
In this section, the speaker analyzes the weekly chart of dollar index and identifies key levels.
Key Points:
- The speaker points out that we traded up into more of an up-close candle.
- Mean threshold is identified as a halfway point between high and low, which comes in at 104.54 if there is continuation on the upside.
- Imbalance from this handle's low acts as support in springing price higher.
Daily Chart Analysis
In this section, daily chart analysis for dollar index is discussed along with identifying order blocks.
Key Points:
- The weekly order block opening price was identified earlier as being anchored on yesterday's opening price.
- There is also a daily order block with a big up-close candle right there in this time frame.
- Annotated opening prices are identified as key levels.
Imbalance and Inefficiency
In this section, the speaker discusses imbalance and inefficiency in price action.
Key Points:
- The speaker mentions that dollar is a little bit overzealous.
- A fair value gap protocol is created when the market moves away too quickly and leaves an inefficiency by means of an imbalance in price.
- Price rotation on a liquidity continuum basis means that the price is efficiently delivered between a range of price action.
Bias Determination
In this section, bias determination for dollar index is discussed.
Key Points:
- The speaker shares their 30 years of experience with viewers to determine bias.
- If we get an opening on a candle and it drops down to a previous high, it creates a typical deferred inefficiency.
- Price has been moving back and forth between defined ranges.
Understanding Narrative and Fair Value Gaps
In this section, the speaker discusses the importance of understanding narrative and fair value gaps in trading.
Importance of Narrative
- It's important to understand narrative when trading.
- Watching a few videos or listening to others won't give you enough exposure to develop a good understanding of narrative.
- Exposure and seeing it over and over again is necessary for developing an understanding of narrative.
Fair Value Gaps
- Fair value gaps highlight inefficiencies in the market that can be exploited for profit.
- Immediate rebalance is one such fair value gap where price trades down to a previous day's high but doesn't go all the way back down.
- Immediate rebalance is one of the strongest algorithmic price delivery signatures.
Immediate Rebalance Formation
In this section, the speaker talks about immediate rebalance formation and how it can be used to identify high probability trades.
Identifying Immediate Rebalance Formation
- Immediate rebalance formation occurs when price opens, trades down to a previous day's high, then rallies back up without giving any room for inefficiency.
- This formation is bullish and allows for directional bias towards buying dollar and short selling foreign currency.
- This formation is one of the most powerful signatures for immediate dynamic price delivery.
Dollar Index Analysis
In this section, the speaker analyzes the dollar index chart using immediate rebalance formation as a guide.
Dollar Index Analysis
- The dollar index had an immediate rebalance formation which was bullish for dollar.
- The analysis showed that prices were expected to go higher on dollar and lower on euro dollar due to risk-off scenario.
- All foreign currencies should decline more in sympathy with a higher dollar.
Euro Dollar Analysis
In this section, the speaker analyzes the euro dollar chart using immediate rebalance formation as a guide.
Euro Dollar Analysis
- The euro dollar had an immediate rebalance formation which was bearish for foreign currency.
- The analysis showed that prices were expected to draw down to the weekly order block opening price.
- Immediate rebalance formation allows for directional bias towards buying dollar and short selling foreign currency.
English Expectations for EUR/USD
In this section, the speaker discusses their expectations for the EUR/USD currency pair and provides insights into potential price movements.
Price Movement Expectations
- The speaker believes that the inefficiency price needs to trade down or go back up, but it has to leave its current area.
- They expect a continuation of a higher dollar and weaker euro, likely down to 107 big figure.
- The speaker mentions a daily candle with relative equal lows and sell-side liquidity resting below it. They anticipate a dip into that area.
- They are looking for 107 big figure if they do not get what they expect.
- A failure on analysis would not occur if the dollar topped out here and the euro went lower.
Trading Skills Development
- The speaker emphasizes writing down their expectations and potential scenarios based on price action.
- If they are unsure or unclear, they will say so. Gun to my head means what they think based on what price is showing them in the chart.
- Consistency is key in developing trading skills. Pay attention to anticipated direction and reaching points.
- Developing skill sets in reading price action is crucial for improving trading visibility.
Technical Analysis
- The speaker shows a 15-minute timeframe of EUR/USD with an imbalance. They mention dropping into short-term premium before consolidating into close.
- On the five-minute chart, they discuss running up during morning session relative equal highs above buy-side thoughts. Smart money will take those buy stocks and short against it as counterparty to their shorts.
Understanding Euro Trading
In this section, the speaker discusses the Euro trading strategy and how to identify optimal entries for going long or short.
Optimal Entries for Going Long or Short
- The midnight opening price is the optimal entry for going long if bullish and below this opening price at midnight if bearish.
- The best shorts occur at or above the midnight opening price in New York time.
- Set your chart on TradingView to New York local time (UTC negative four).
- Smart money sells short when the market goes above the midnight opening price, allowing them to use that as a target.
Liquidity Pool Resting Below Daily Relative Equal Lows
In this section, the speaker explains how smart money engineers liquidity by running up prices and then selling short, allowing them to hit their targets.
Engineering Liquidity
- Smart money engineers liquidity by running up prices and then selling short.
- Their target is usually relative equal lows on the daily chart.
- The market drops just short of this level before rallying one more time back up into inefficiency.
- It then breaks hard into that pool of liquidity resting below those daily relative equal lows.
Model 2022 Buy Side Swept Low Taken
In this section, the speaker discusses a model 2022 buy side swept low taken and how it can be used to trade Euro.
Model 2022 Buy Side Swept Low Taken
- A model 2022 buy side swept low taken occurs when there is a fair bag gap in an order block that trades up into it.
- You can get short there and aim for one more pass into that south-side liquidity pool.
- Consolidation into the close for the day follows.
English Resting Below 1.0713
In this section, the speaker discusses the market's movement below 1.0713.
Market Movement
- The market drops aggressively down into that level and whips right back above it.
- It trades one more time to below it but only to consequent encroachment which is the midpoint of this Gap from this candle's High to that candle is low measured on your own Fibonacci.
- We see a short-term rally higher after resting below 1.0713.
English Retail Resistance and Order Blocks
In this section, the speaker discusses retail resistance and order blocks.
Retail Resistance
- The average trader trusts imaginary support resistance lines and thinks everything works on them.
- They would look at retail resistance as a place to put their stop loss up.
- However, the market quickly runs for those buy stops because smart money distributes their short position and buys up here.
Order Blocks
- There is an order block up here with buy stops.
- The algorithm runs down, creates a fair value gap, trades up in here, breaks lower very gap hits it institutional order flow entry drill which is a partial entry into a gap that does not completely fill breaks one more time Gap order block two consecutive up close candles trades into it perfectly drops one more time that low takes out that low right there then it Springs back into the range.
English Fair Value Gap Trading
In this section, the speaker discusses fair value gap trading.
Fair Value Gap Trading
- We get a fair value Gap multiple times between 10 o'clock in the morning to noon (London close).
- This is permissible as long as we see the bodies and Wicks go just outside that fair value Gap.
- We would expect it to trade lower again reaching back down into the daily relative equal lows again.
English New York Stop Run
In this section, the speaker discusses the New York stop run.
New York Stop Run
- The most energetic price move on the outside is where stops are.
- This is the target for a New York stop run.
- The algorithm will run down, create a fair value gap, trade up in here, break lower very gap hits it institutional order flow entry drill which is a partial entry into a gap that does not completely fill breaks one more time Gap order block two consecutive up close candles trades into it perfectly drops one more time that low takes out that low right there then it Springs back into the range.
E-mini S&P Weekly Chart Analysis
In this section, the speaker analyzes the weekly chart of E-mini S&P and discusses the significance of trading inside a range.
Trading Inside Range
- The price traded below last week's low and is now back inside the range.
Daily Chart Analysis
In this section, the speaker analyzes the daily chart of E-mini S&P and discusses how it relates to lower time frames.
Opening Range Gap
- The rectangle on the daily chart represents an opening range gap that will be more meaningful in lower time frames.
- The open of two candles is right at that opening range, which will make more sense in lower time frames.
Trading Inside Inefficiency
- The price is currently trading up inside an inefficiency area. It will be important to see if we reject that overnight going into tomorrow or if we power through it and completely close it.
- If we trade above the gap between this candle's high and that candle's low, it would be treated as an inversion gap, something bullish. However, currently looking at it as a potential area just to get short and look for lower prices because there are one two three relative equal lows here and that sell side is really juicy right now.
Hourly Chart Analysis
In this section, the speaker analyzes the hourly chart of E-mini S&P.
South Side According Pool
- This is where they drew down into if they failed to find any support.
- Expecting it to draw up into a closure of the opening range and up to the buy side.
Tuesday and Wednesday's Opening Range Gap
In this section, the speaker discusses Tuesday and Wednesday's opening range gap.
Three Days Expiration
- The opening range gap should be kept on the chart for three days. After that, it expires in the speaker's mind.
Power Three Concept
- The power three concept is more than just open high low close or accumulation manipulation distribution. It includes much more than that.
Algorithmic Trading
- There is a lot going on behind the scenes that is algorithmic, which most traders are oblivious to unless they know about it.
Conclusion
In this section, the speaker concludes by discussing how traders need to hunt differently if they want to be an apex predator.
Hunt Differently
- Traders need to hunt differently if they want to be an apex predator. They have to be the first one to take prey; otherwise, they can't wait around.
- The buy side was reached out as discussed earlier in the video.
Understanding Opening Range Gaps
In this section, the speaker explains the concept of opening range gaps and how to identify them on a chart.
Identifying Opening Range Gaps
- The speaker defines an opening range gap as the difference between the settlement price of one day and the opening price of the next day.
- To identify an opening range gap, you need to change your chart to regular trading hours and look for a separation between the settlement parts and the opening price on a new day.
- The speaker highlights that understanding opening range gaps is important because they can provide insight into potential market movements.
Overlapping Opening Range Gaps
- The speaker identifies two overlapping opening range gaps: Tuesday-Wednesday and Wednesday-Thursday.
- He notes that there is unfinished business in filling some portions of these gaps, which could potentially happen in future trading sessions.
Market Expectations
- While acknowledging that anything can happen going into a holiday weekend, the speaker expects that the market will try to work towards filling in areas left by previous gaps.
- He notes that if he is wrong about his expectations, it would need to go back above current new week opening Gap high for him to be bullish again.
Analyzing Market Movements
In this section, the speaker analyzes recent market movements using technical analysis tools such as order blocks and trend lines.
Recent Market Movements
- The speaker notes that recent market movements have followed along with previous patterns identified through technical analysis tools such as order blocks and trend lines.
- He highlights that smart money is accumulating at the lows, which suggests a potential sell-side movement in the future.
Technical Analysis Tools
- The speaker identifies an order block and a target device for market movements.
- He notes that he is watching to see if a potential phantom trend line breaks, which could indicate a sell-side movement.
Understanding New Day Opening Gap
In this section, the speaker discusses the concept of new day opening gap and its significance in trading.
Definition of New Day Opening Gap
- A new day opening gap is the difference between the closing price at 5 o'clock and the opening price at 6 o'clock.
- It is a significant indicator for traders to understand market trends.
Consequent Encroachment
- Consequent encroachment refers to half of any inefficiency or gap mean threshold.
- It is important to keep this distinction in mind while analyzing market trends.
Order Block
- An order block is an area where there are more buyers than sellers or vice versa.
- It is an important factor to consider while analyzing market trends.
Importance of Personalization
- Traders should focus on finding setups that match their personality and make sense to them.
- Not all concepts will work for everyone, so it's essential to personalize one's approach.
Understanding the Market
In this section, the speaker explains that the market is reaching for inefficiencies and liquidity on a time-based delivery schedule. He emphasizes that traders should focus on specific times of day and setups to trade.
The Market's Behavior
- The market reaches for inefficiencies and liquidity on a time-based delivery schedule.
- Traders should focus on specific times of day and setups to trade.
- It's impractical to be in every move that makes money.
- Traders should not put too much pressure on themselves.
Order Flow Analysis
In this section, the speaker discusses order flow analysis and how it can be used to identify trading opportunities.
Silver Bullet Hour
- The 10 o'clock to 11 o'clock hour is known as the Silver Bullet Hour.
- On a one-minute chart, we can see price action at the high end of the old opening range gap.
- We fell short of buy/sell liquidity, so we went outside the range of opening range gap before slamming lower into an order block.
Fair Value Gap
- A fair value gap is created in the form of a sell-side imbalance by side efficiency when prices drop down.
- Relatively equal highs and lows are created before trading down to hit Tuesday's opening range gap low.
- Wicks do all the damage before running back up to take out a short-term high.
ICT Silver Bullet
- The ICT Silver Bullet involves blending the 2022 model with fair value gaps.
- This strategy involves taking stops, shifting market structure, identifying fair value gaps, and buying them.
Journaling and Positive Self-Talk
In this section, the speaker discusses the importance of journaling and positive self-talk in trading.
How to do your own journaling
- Annotate and reward yourself with positive self-talk.
- Condition yourself to see the positive aspects of price action.
- Trick your brain into seeing it like you actually did it.
- Helps fuel motivation and removes uncertainty.
Importance of backtesting, journaling, and studying
- Backtesting, journaling, and studying are essential for success in trading.
- It is better than most technical books available in the market.
- You have to put effort into doing it right.
Silver Bullet Trading Strategy
In this section, the speaker explains the Silver Bullet trading strategy for ES or index futures.
Opportunities for Silver Bullet Trading Strategy
- Two opportunities for the Silver Bullet strategy - trades down into it or rallies up takes buy side here and then runs into bearish order block.
- Profitability can be achieved even if we are wrong about our expectations.
Rules for Silver Bullet Trading Strategy
- The range must offer at least a 10 handle range.
- Use templates that have all opening range gaps.
- Algorithm will refer back to those same levels every day in perpetuity.
Anticipating vs Reacting to Price Action
- Retail traders react while anticipating price action is key to successful trading.
- As a student of the speaker's course, you will learn how to anticipate price action too.
Understanding Price Action Trading
In this section, the speaker explains that his approach to trading is different from retail-minded traders. He emphasizes that there is a significant difference between his method and others in the market.
The Market and Accuracy
- The speaker claims that his accuracy in predicting market movements comes from understanding price action.
- He notes that his students have learned from him and are doing well, making six-figure incomes.
- The speaker acknowledges that learning his method requires effort but can lead to success.
Criteria for High Probability Trades
In this section, the speaker discusses the criteria for high probability trades using ICT Silver Bullet in Futures trading.
10 Handle Run
- A high probability trade using ICT Silver Bullet in Futures requires at least a potential 10 handle run.
- Handles or points are interchangeable terms used to describe full point moves in futures trading.
Long Position Example
- The speaker provides an example of a long position trade with a potential 10 handle run.
- If buying at 4147 even, it only needs to go up 10 handles (4157.25) to reach profitability.
- This trade offers opportunities for partial buys/sells and pyramiding positions.
Stop Losses and Reversals
In this section, the speaker discusses stop losses and reversals when trading with ICT Silver Bullet.
Pyramid Trading Strategy
- The pyramid strategy involves buying multiple contracts at different prices and selling them off incrementally as they increase in value.
- Trailing stop losses should be placed below swing lows once the price reaches a certain level.
Reversal Points
- Reversal points can occur when prices reach a certain level and then drop back down.
- The speaker advises not to collapse positions too quickly, as prices may still rise again.
Simplifying Price Action Trading
In this section, the speaker addresses concerns about the complexity of his trading method and offers advice for simplifying it.
Stripping Down Price Action
- The speaker suggests stripping price action down below a one-minute chart to simplify it.
- He notes that he taught Silver Bullet in a Twitter space before teaching it in this video.
Overcoming Complexity
- The speaker acknowledges that some traders may feel overwhelmed by his method.
- He suggests taking the time to learn and practice his approach, which can lead to success.
Fair Value Gap Trading
In this section, the speaker discusses fair value gap trading and how it can occur between 10 a.m. and 11 a.m. New York local time.
Fair Value Gap
- A fair value gap is formed when there is a gap in price that occurs during the day.
- The entry for fair value gap trading occurs between 10 a.m. and 11 a.m. New York local time.
- The entry could be in the form of a fair day gap that was prior to 10 o'clock or one that forms between 10 o'clock and 11 o'clock.
Institutional Order Flow
- Institutional order flow is not visible on volume profile analysis, depth of market, lighter, or level two data.
- The speaker shows how institutional order flow can be identified by studying price movement on charts.
- An imbalance in order flow indicates institutional activity.
Technical Analysis Precision
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of technical analysis precision in identifying patterns and trends.
- He encourages traders to study charts closely and use smaller timeframes for greater accuracy.
Mitigation Block Trading Strategy
In this section, the speaker discusses mitigation block trading strategy using examples from his charts.
Mitigation Block
- A mitigation block is a down closed candle located between a high and lower high on a chart.
- It serves as resistance to upward price movement.
Market Structure Shift
- When price breaks through a mitigation block, it signals a shift in market structure.
- This creates an opportunity for traders to enter long positions with stop losses below previous lows.
Technical Science Approach
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of using technical science rather than guesswork or conjecture in trading.
- He encourages traders to study charts closely and use precise technical analysis techniques for greater accuracy.
Market Structure
In this section, the speaker discusses market structure and how to use it to make trading decisions.
Using PDR Matrix
- The speaker uses a PDR matrix to identify bullish order blocks.
- Two down closed candles indicate a bullish order block.
- The speaker extends the order block to the right and looks for opportunities to buy in.
- The speaker adds more contracts as they go along.
Importance of Precision
- To trade with precision, one needs access to sub-one-minute charts.
- TradingView offers these charts but requires a high-level membership fee.
- Precision is necessary for identifying fair value gaps and inefficiencies in the market.
Balancing Efficiency
- When there is back-and-forth movement within an area, it indicates that the market has efficiently balanced itself.
- Once an area has been efficiently balanced, if the market rallies above that high, it should not need to go back below it again.
Understanding Support and Resistance
In this section, the speaker explains how to understand support and resistance in charts. He emphasizes that traders should look for inefficiencies around levels of support and resistance.
Classic Support and Resistance
- Support acts as a floor for prices, while resistance acts as a ceiling.
- Traders should look for inefficiencies around levels of support and resistance.
- If these inefficiencies are balanced, it means that the price range is real and can be trusted to act as either support or resistance.
Balancing Price Range
- Once a price range is balanced, it will act as either support if the price is going higher or resistance if the price is going lower.
- Traders can trust that a balanced price range won't go back through it once it leaves.
- The only exposure for inefficiency is when a candle goes up or down in price delivery within that range.
Trading Silver Bullet
In this section, the speaker discusses trading silver bullet using a one-minute chart on the S&P afternoon session between 2 pm and 3 pm.
Reaching Objective
- The market reached its objective during the two o'clock hour by running through high side Lakota pool.
- When the market trades up into an inefficiency, it's a short sign imbalance bison efficiency lacking buy side.
Liquidity Void
- A liquidity void occurs when there's no price data being printed at all.
- Traders can look for another fair value gap that may not be seen or visual in the one-minute chart.
- It's important to study and see if there's anything more in this area before entering a trade.
Thursday Trading Strategy
In this section, the speaker discusses a trading strategy for Thursdays and how to annotate trades in your journal.
Creating High of the Week on Thursdays
- Thursdays can generally give you the opposite end of a range.
- Chances are we can create the high of the week on Thursday.
- We can trade short term and get movement.
- The target hit during PM session at 2 o'clock on Thursday.
Annotating Trades in Your Journal
- Annotate where you would have been filled.
- Do not try to pick the highest high and lowest low.
- Be realistic and practical when doing backtesting.
- Use logic and rules given by speaker to annotate trades.
Understanding Market Movement
In this section, the speaker explains market movement and how it affects trading strategies.
Understanding Market Movement
- Heat is given before it drops down.
- A run here does not mean that it will completely go up here and close that in.
- This is a blow-off type move, kind of like capitulation.
- Speaker is not suggesting that they have made the high but trading with expectation that they can treat it that way.
Trading Strategy for 10 Second Chart
In this section, the speaker discusses a trading strategy for a 10 second chart.
Trading Strategy for 10 Second Chart
- There's an inefficiency between two o'clock and three o'clock.
- Range entry from 4169 even which would be this candle's High here if we were getting short there 10 handles lower or 10 points lower which would be 41.59
4159 is down here we haven't even taken out that low to get 4159 yet and we're aiming for this so yes it would be a high probability tree.
- Book five take a partial at 10 and see if you can get down into this closure of this inefficiency.
- Aim just for that real liquidity void.
Analyzing Price Levels
In this section, the speaker discusses how he analyzes price levels and uses them to make trading decisions.
Using Annotated Levels
- The speaker constantly refers to annotated levels while watching price movements.
- These levels help him anticipate retracements and inefficiencies in the market.
- He watches for price movements into these levels and anticipates a measure of retracement.
Trading with Sub-One Minute Candlesticks
- The speaker finds trades that won't exist on a one-minute chart by using sub-one minute candlesticks.
- High-frequency trading is done on these sub-one minute candlesticks.
- Algorithmic traders use inefficiencies in points of reference for their trades.
Finding Trades with Precision
- The speaker looks at lower one-minute and less charts to find inefficiencies, order blocks, and points of reference.
- He teaches PD arrays as well as other techniques to find trades with precision.
Understanding Market Movements
In this section, the speaker explains how he reads market movements and identifies fair value gaps.
Reading Inside the Market Movements
- Fair value gaps do not necessarily indicate anything about market movements.
- Algorithmic traders read inside all the fair value gaps to identify opportunities for trades.
Identifying Fair Value Gaps
- The speaker identifies fair value gaps by looking at liquidity voids in the market.
- He watches for when prices move into these liquidity voids to anticipate retracements or inefficiencies in the market.
Using Order Blocks as Points of Reference
- Order blocks are used as points of reference for algorithmic traders.
- The speaker uses order blocks as part of his strategy to find trades with precision.
Making Trading Decisions
In this section, the speaker discusses how he makes trading decisions based on market movements and inefficiencies.
Using the Three Dies Pattern
- The three dies pattern is a classic pattern used by traders to identify potential trades.
- The speaker uses this pattern to identify potential short trades.
Adding to Trades
- The speaker adds to his trades when inefficiencies are identified in the market.
- He explains how he would add to a short trade if it broke down and created another fair value gap.
Teaching Trading Techniques
- The speaker teaches intraday trading techniques that can be used to find trades with precision.
- He emphasizes the importance of being willing to listen and learn in order to become a successful trader.
Trading Strategies
In this section, the speaker discusses his trading strategies and how he approaches the market.
Identifying Order Blocks
- The speaker looks for order blocks that are being rejected by the market.
- He waits for a confirmation of rejection before entering a trade.
- These order blocks occur every day between 10:00-11:00, 14:00-15:00, and 15:00-16:00 during the London session.
Retracement Expectations
- After an order block is confirmed to be rejected, the speaker expects a retracement to occur.
- This retracement provides an opportunity to enter a trade with reasonable expectations of profit.
Stop Placement and Re-entry
- The speaker sometimes gets stopped out of trades due to poor execution or stop placement.
- If the criteria for the trade still exists in the price charts and nothing has changed, he will re-enter the trade.
- He does not chase price but waits for his setup on one-minute or less time frames.
Institutional Order Flow
- The speaker emphasizes that institutional order flow is what drives price movement.
- It has nothing to do with volume profiles, level two data Doms depth of Market or any other technical indicators.
- Knowing where price is drawing to next is key in identifying inefficiencies in pricing and making profitable trades.