7e10 - 03Abr23: PETRÓLEO DISPARA MAIS DE 5% APÓS DECISÃO DA OPEP DE CORTAR PRODUÇÃO

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Gringo Flow and Dollar Inflow

This section discusses the flow of foreign investment in Brazil, specifically the amount of money that has been invested by foreigners in the Brazilian stock market.

Gringo Flow

• The gringo flow has reversed from a significant outflow to a substantial inflow of foreign investment into Brazil's stock market.

• As of March 30th, foreigners have invested $1.473 billion in Brazil's stock market this year.

• This is still less than half of the peak investment level of $2.996 billion on February 15th.

Dollar Inflow

• Foreigners invested BRL 1 billion ($217 million USD) on the day of "arcabouço," which was the second-to-last trading day in March.

• The total dollar inflow for the year is BRL 7.384 billion ($1.6 billion USD).

Neve Changes Manufacturer and Oil Production Cuts

This section covers two topics: Neve changing manufacturers and oil production cuts.

Neve Changes Manufacturer

• Suzano acquired Neve, so if you use Neve toilet paper, your manufacturer will now be Suzano.

Oil Production Cuts

• Saudi Arabia promised to cut oil production by 500,000 barrels per day starting in May until December 31st.

• Russia will continue its current cut of 500,000 barrels per day.

• However, some experts believe that due to countries like Iraq and Kazakhstan being unable to cut production further, the actual reduction may only be 700,000 barrels per day.

• The total cut will be around 3.6 million barrels per day, which is approximately 3.5% of global production.

• Despite concerns about a decrease in demand, the global demand for oil is increasing and is expected to reach between 102 and 103 million barrels per day this year.

• This increase in demand may lead buyers to seek alternative sources of oil, such as Brazil.

• Additionally, there may be an increase in the OSP (Official Selling Price), which is the price of physical oil on the market.

Understanding the Oil Market

In this section, the speaker discusses the recent increase in oil prices and how it is related to the physical market.

Increase in Oil Prices

• The price of oil has increased due to a cut in production by Saudi Arabia.

• The increase in oil prices is also due to a rise in demand for gasoline during summer months.

• The US government's decision not to replenish their strategic reserves has also contributed to the increase in oil prices.

Seasonality of Oil Demand

In this section, the speaker explains how seasonality affects oil demand and prices.

Seasonal Demand for Oil

• There are seasonal fluctuations in demand for gasoline and heating oils.

• Currently, there is an oversupply of oil leading to lower prices.

• Saudi Arabia has chosen to cut production at a time when demand for gasoline is expected to rise during summer months.

Future Trends in Oil Prices

In this section, the speaker discusses future trends in oil prices based on seasonal fluctuations.

Future Trends

• Oil prices are expected to reach their peak during July when demand for gasoline is highest.

• Prices will decrease again during September before rising once more until November when diesel fuel consumption peaks.

Gasoline Prices in the US

In this section, the speaker talks about gasoline prices and futures trading.

Gasoline Prices and Futures Trading

• Gasoline prices in the US have risen by 4.5%.

• Futures trading can provide insight into market sentiment and supply and demand balance.

• The speaker compares futures trading to interest rate curves, explaining that they are snapshots of current market conditions rather than predictors of future trends.

Understanding the Oil Market

In this section, the speaker discusses how changes in supply and demand affect oil prices.

Impact of OPEC Cuts on Oil Prices

• In December and January, there was a surplus of oil supply which led to flat prices for the next five months.

• The market realized that the supply was adequate to meet demand after OPEC cuts were implemented.

• A curve inversion occurred due to an imbalance between supply and demand, leading to higher prices.

China's Role in the Oil Market

• China is currently the largest consumer of oil globally.

• China has increased its imports from Russia due to discounts offered by Russian suppliers.

• China has strategic reserves of over one billion barrels, which it uses during times of high volatility in oil prices.

• China's purchases are based on Dubai benchmark pricing since Russia changed its benchmark from Brent to Dubai.

Impact of Benchmark Changes on Oil Prices

• The Brent benchmark is used for negotiations in Europe while WTI is used for negotiations in the US. Dubai is used as a reference price for negotiations in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East.

• Russia changed its benchmark from Brent to Dubai, allowing it to sell at higher prices than before.

Miscellaneous Topics

This section covers various unrelated topics discussed by the speaker.

Fashion Trends

• According to a recent report, wearing glasses but not having a beard is considered fashionable.

• People who are considered unattractive tend to wear yellow shirts.

Personal Experience

• The speaker visited a former classmate from fifth grade who was hosting an exhibition.

• The exhibition featured a replica of the Sistine Chapel with projections on all walls and ceilings, accompanied by music.

Petrobras Analysis

In this section, the speaker analyzes the Petrobras stock chart and provides insights on its trends.

Key Points:

• The Petrobras stock chart shows a trend of decline since 1994, passing through various crises and problems.

• The chart shows a double top pattern with a resistance level at 22.47. If it breaks below this level, it is likely to continue its downward trend.

• The speaker notes that there is a mini uptrend line in the chart but it has been broken, indicating that the stock will continue to fall towards support levels at 22.49, 21.84 and 20.79.

• The weekly chart shows a bearish pattern after six weeks of decline with one week of attempted recovery. There may be some volatility in the market due to discussions about oil prices and government intervention.

Fundamentals vs Technical Analysis

In this section, the speaker discusses how fundamental analysis and technical analysis can affect stock prices.

Key Points:

• The speaker notes that while global oil prices are rising, there may be government intervention in Brazil which could affect Petrobras' stock price.

• Fundamental analysis looks at factors such as supply and demand while technical analysis focuses on patterns in charts.

• While Petrobras usually follows international oil prices, government intervention can cause volatility in the market which cannot always be predicted by technical analysis alone.

Introduction

The speaker talks about gas prices and mentions that he was unable to find a certain product.

Gas Prices

• Gasoline prices have increased by 3.99.

• The price of natural gas has gone up as well.

• The speaker mentions an unopened product that he was unable to find.

IBOV and the Stock Market

The speaker discusses the IBOV and the stock market, including trends, patterns, and potential outcomes.

Alisson Sávio and the B3

• Alisson Sávio is mentioned as a former boss of the speaker's at B3.

• He is now the president of a global bank.

IBOV Trends

• The IBOV has been in a downward trend since January.

• It has experienced a 11.41% decrease since then.

• There is potential for an upward trend if it rises above 104.050/104.100.

Technical Analysis

• A candlestick pattern called "Pedala Robinho" or "Towers with Twins" is discussed.

• The market has returned to a support level after attempting to break through resistance.

• If the market continues to fall, it may reach a previous low point.

Juros Futures

The speaker discusses juros futures contracts and their current trends.

Current Trend

• Juros futures are still in a downward trend.

• They have recently fallen below a gap line but are starting to rise again.

Tendency of Interest Rates and Inflation

The speaker discusses the trend of decreasing interest rates and increasing inflation, which he believes is driven by the government's desire to increase tax revenue.

Interest Rates and Inflation

• The trend is for interest rates to decrease.

• To increase tax revenue without raising nominal interest rates, the government may increase inflation.

• The speaker believes that this desire for increased tax revenue is driving the government's actions.

Dollar Trends

The speaker analyzes trends in the value of the dollar against other currencies.

Dollar Value Trends

• The dollar has been moving towards a support level at 5000.

• This support level is weak, but there is a stronger support level at 5000.

• The dollar has recently rebounded from its low point and is now moving towards this stronger support level.

• In the short term, the dollar will likely continue to move towards this support level.

Live View Count and Schedule Changes

The speaker comments on his live view count and changes to his schedule.

Live View Count and Schedule Changes

• The speaker expresses disappointment with his live view count relative to the number of viewers watching.

• He announces that he will be changing his schedule so that his live streams will take place on Fridays at 11am.

UBS to cut 11,000 jobs in Switzerland

In this section, the speaker discusses UBS's plan to cut 36,000 jobs globally, with 11,000 of those job cuts happening in Switzerland. The speaker also mentions that there will be a convergence of sectors and that this decision by UBS will cause internal confusion.

UBS to cut 11,000 jobs in Switzerland

• UBS plans to close 36,000 jobs globally.

• Of these job cuts, 11,000 will happen in Switzerland.

• There will be a convergence of sectors as a result of these job cuts.

• This decision by UBS will cause internal confusion.

Changes in ICMS and its impact on gasoline prices

In this section, the speaker talks about changes in ICMS (Imposto sobre Circulação de Mercadorias e Serviços), which is a tax on the circulation of goods and services. The speaker explains how changes in ICMS can affect gasoline prices.

Changes in ICMS and its impact on gasoline prices

• The states were unifying ICMS (tax on circulation of goods and services), which would have caused an increase of around 11% in the price of gasoline from July.

• However, there was a meeting between the states and STF (Supreme Federal Court), where it was decided that instead of being at 1.47%, the ICMS tax on gasoline would be at 1.22% starting from June.

• With this change, the price of gasoline would increase by 9.13%.

• The speaker notes that there may still be an effect cascade of taxes, which could further increase gasoline prices.

Calculation of the impact of ICMS changes on gasoline prices

In this section, the speaker calculates the impact of the changes in ICMS on gasoline prices.

Calculation of the impact of ICMS changes on gasoline prices

• With the change in ICMS tax from 1.47% to 1.22%, the price of gasoline would increase by 9.13%.

• The speaker uses a simple calculation to arrive at this figure: (1.22/13.36 - 1)*100 = 9.13%.

Market update

In this section, the speaker provides an update on various markets such as oil, coffee and stocks.

Market update

• Oil futures are up by 6%, while Brent crude is up by 177 points.

• Coffee futures are up by 2.7%.

• US stocks have fallen by 0.12%, while fear index has risen by 4.92%.

Increase in Bread Prices

The speaker talks about increasing the price of bread and how it will help him make more money.

Increasing Bread Prices

• The speaker plans to increase the price of bread to make more money.

• He jokes about killing the wallet of a customer named Seu Manoel.

• The speaker mentions that other people are having a hard time at work today.

Stock Market Update

The speaker provides an update on the stock market and discusses the potential impact of changes in commodity prices and government intervention.

Stock Market Update

• The speaker updates listeners on the stock market.

• He discusses fluctuations in Vale and Petrobras stocks.

• The speaker briefly mentions Lula's proposed intervention in gas prices.

Personal Conversation

The speakers engage in a lighthearted conversation about pets, soccer, and family.

Personal Conversation

• One speaker asks about where another person has been.

• They discuss soccer teams they support.

• They joke around about pets' behavior and appearance.

• One person teases another about wearing a shirt after a soccer game.

Farewell

The speakers say goodbye to their audience.

Farewell

• Speakers thank their audience for tuning in.

• They mention that they will be back at 2 pm.

• The speakers joke around with a family who came to visit.