Und dann steigt die Inflation auf 30% – Banken-Insider Markus Krall verrät Krisen-Szenario
Introduction
In this section, Mario Lochner introduces his guest Markus Karl and they discuss the current state of politics and economics.
The Corrupt Mindset of Politicians
- According to Markus Karl, a corrupt mindset is necessary for politicians to engage in certain actions.
- The Euro is considered a flawed construction by some.
- There are issues with incompetence in politics.
Predictions of an Upcoming Crisis
- Markus predicts that there will be a crisis soon.
- He estimates that between 4 and 8 trillion euros will be needed to address the crisis in Europe and America.
Discussion on Bank Crisis
In this section, Mario Lochner asks Markus Karl about the potential collapse of Deutsche Bank and the possibility of a bank crisis.
Potential Collapse of Deutsche Bank
- Markus does not comment on whether or not Deutsche Bank will collapse specifically.
- If an institution as large as Deutsche Bank were to fail, it would have to be bailed out at any cost by central banks, regulators, and governments.
Possibility of a Bank Crisis
- A bank crisis is predicted due to imbalances that have accumulated over time.
- The increase in interest rates has led to significant losses in bonds, which could result in trillions of dollars or euros lost.
Causes of the Bank Crisis
In this section, Markus Karl explains how the bank crisis came about.
Increase in Interest Rates
- An increase in interest rates was necessary for combating inflation.
- This led to significant losses in bonds due to rising costs associated with fixed-income products.
Silicon Valley Bank Case Study
- Silicon Valley Bank's collapse was due to the same problem.
- The bank had more market losses than equity and was unable to obtain liquidity.
Deutsche Bank's Troubles
In this section, Markus Karl discusses the problems that led to Deutsche Bank's troubles.
Deutsche Bank's Market Losses
- Deutsche Bank had significant market losses but did not book them as losses initially.
- When depositors began withdrawing their money, the bank had to sell its bonds, which resulted in realized losses.
Potential for a Systemic Crisis
- The situation with Deutsche Bank highlights the potential for a systemic crisis.
- If enough depositors withdraw their funds from banks, it could lead to a chain reaction of failures.
The Causes of the Banking Crisis
In this section, the speaker discusses the causes of the banking crisis and how it affected businesses.
Bank Failure and Risky Investments
- The Silicon Valley Bank invested in risky start-ups and ventures which led to a higher risk for investors.
- Companies had liquid reserves that they invested in these high-risk investments. When interest rates rose unexpectedly, companies were unable to park their money in short-term investments without losing money.
- This led to a liquidity trap where companies had to invest in long-term investments with higher returns but also higher risks.
An Overinflated Bond Market
- There is an overinflated bond market worth between 135 and 150 trillion euros worldwide.
- Due to rising interest rates, this bond market has lost value by 18 to 20 trillion euros.
- These losses have not been accounted for yet, but they will eventually need to be addressed.
State Bonds are Not Safe
- States can go bankrupt or suffer from hyperinflation, making state bonds a risky investment.
- The current bond market crash has affected banks as well as pension funds.
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