政黨與選舉制度 08. 選舉制度的政治影響 (三)、臺灣的選舉制度、選制改革與政黨競爭、政黨體系與「有效政黨數」(一)

Political Impact of Electoral Systems

Introduction to Electoral Systems

• The discussion begins with an overview of the political impact of electoral systems, emphasizing the importance of understanding both the system itself and its consequences on politics.

• Previous discussions included relative majority voting systems and their political implications, referencing theories such as Duverger's Law and median voter theory.

Proportional Representation System

• The focus shifts to proportional representation (PR) systems, which were first implemented in 1991, designed to enhance proportionality in party representation within legislatures.

• In countries using PR, parties that meet a threshold can gain seats in parliament corresponding to their vote share, allowing smaller parties a better chance of survival and reducing strategic voting for larger parties.

Key Features of Proportional Representation

• PR is believed to foster multi-party systems more easily than other electoral methods due to its design promoting diverse party representation. Scholars argue it enhances ideological diversity among parties.

• It diminishes the influence of individual candidates' charisma compared to party platforms and ideologies during elections, leading voters to prioritize party policies over personal appeal. This contrasts with majoritarian systems where candidate popularity plays a significant role.

• Voter choice is expanded under PR since individuals are less likely to feel their votes are wasted; this leads to higher voter turnout rates compared to majoritarian systems according to empirical studies by Norris.

Challenges in Implementing Proportional Representation

• Despite its advantages, implementing PR requires consideration of complex historical, geographical, cultural factors unique to each country; thus achieving ideal proportionality remains challenging.

• Different electoral formulas and thresholds can significantly affect outcomes for large versus small parties within various nations employing PR systems.

Multi-party Politics and Coalition Governments

• In Europe post-2000, single-party majority governments have become rare; coalition governments have emerged as a common form due to high levels of party fragmentation associated with PR systems.

• The emergence of multi-party politics reflects societal diversity across class, ethnicity, religion, language regions—factors that shape political landscapes beyond mere electoral rules alone.

Presidential Elections in Latin America

• Many Latin American countries utilize two-round majority elections for presidential races while adopting PR for legislative elections; this combination creates intricate interactions between executive authority and legislative bodies amidst multi-party contexts.

• Such arrangements often lead presidents with strong popular mandates directly confronting fragmented legislatures without mechanisms like parliamentary dissolution available for resolving deadlocks effectively—contributing factors towards regional political instability observed historically in these nations.

Taiwan's Electoral System Debate

Relative Majority vs Absolute Majority

• Taiwan’s ongoing debate regarding whether presidential elections should adopt relative or absolute majority voting has persisted since the early 1990s; this discourse intensified after instances where presidents were elected with less than 40% support from voters (e.g., Chen Shui-bian).

Arguments For Absolute Majority Voting

1. Advocates argue that an elected president must possess substantial public backing.

2. Concerns arise about low vote percentages leading potentially unrepresentative "minority" presidencies.

3. Relative majority may encourage polarization among candidates.

4. Absolute majority promotes integration among parties through election mechanisms.

5. Given expanded presidential powers post-reforms necessitate stronger legitimacy via absolute majorities.

Arguments For Relative Majority Voting

1. Consistency across administrative elections favors maintaining relative majority standards.

2. Potential complications from second-round voting could disrupt established voter habits.

3. Increased logistical burdens associated with holding multiple rounds may deter participation.

4. Risks exist where initial frontrunners might lose subsequent rounds causing social unrest.

Statistical Overview

• A statistical analysis reveals that out of 236 countries worldwide regarding head-of-state selection methods: 24 use relative majorities while 89 employ two-round runoff systems—indicating a preference towards runoffs especially amid democratic transitions globally during recent decades.(1024)

This structured summary encapsulates key insights from the transcript while providing timestamps for easy reference back into specific sections discussed throughout the lecture on electoral systems' impacts on politics globally and specifically within Taiwan's context.

Analysis of Taiwan's Electoral System

Overview of Party Vote Shares

• The combined vote share of the Kuomintang (KMT) and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has consistently been around 90% since 1989, indicating a strong two-party system in most elections.

• Exceptions to this trend include notable elections like the 1994 Taipei mayoral election and the 2000 presidential election, where competition was more fragmented.

• In local administrative elections from 1998 to 2018, KMT and DPP vote shares fell short of the 90% threshold, suggesting reduced political competition at lower levels.

Dual Structure in Administrative Elections

• High-level elections exhibit clear two-party competition, while grassroots elections focus more on individual candidates rather than party affiliation.

• For example, village chief elections have seen an increase in independent candidates' vote shares over time, reaching over 70%, indicating a decline in traditional party dominance.

• Many independent candidates avoid party labels due to potential negative impacts on their electoral prospects. This raises questions about voter perceptions of party affiliation versus candidate individuality.

Legislative Election Changes

• A significant shift occurred post-2008 when Taiwan transitioned from Single Non-transferable Vote (SNTV) to a mixed-member proportional representation system, impacting effective party numbers significantly.

• The effective number of parties has fluctuated since the DPP's establishment in 1986; it reached its peak with multiple parties gaining seats after major electoral changes but dropped sharply following the electoral reforms in 2008.

Trends in Effective Number of Parties

• From an initial effective number close to two (1.92) in 1989, it rose during periods of multi-party participation before declining again post-reform to as low as 1.75 by recent counts. This reflects ongoing shifts within Taiwan's political landscape and electoral dynamics.

Candidate Strategies Under Different Electoral Systems

Relative Majority Voting System

• Candidates must appeal to centrist voters under relative majority systems; strategies should focus on garnering broad support rather than niche segments for successful outcomes in high-stakes races like legislative or mayoral positions.

Multi-member District Dynamics

• In multi-member districts, internal party competition is often fiercer than inter-party rivalry; candidates vie against their own colleagues for votes within their shared ideological space leading to intense intra-party conflicts.

Nomination Strategies

• Political parties face challenges determining optimal nomination quotas—too many nominees can dilute votes while too few may miss opportunities for winning seats; finding balance is crucial for success in competitive environments like city councils or legislative assemblies.

Candidate Diversity

• Successful candidate slates require diversity among nominees—candidates should represent various demographics and appeal strategies to maximize overall ticket performance rather than presenting homogenous profiles that fail to attract varied voter bases.

Voter Behavior Influences

Strategic Voting Patterns

• Voters often engage in strategic voting behaviors known as "票保" (vote protection), where they choose less preferred candidates who are more likely to win over their least favored options—a phenomenon observed since the early '90s across various elections including mayoral contests and presidential races.

Individual vs Party Identification

• In multi-candidate scenarios within single parties, personal attributes become critical; voters must navigate choices based not only on party loyalty but also on individual candidate characteristics which complicate traditional voting patterns seen under simpler electoral frameworks like single-member districts where party identity dominates decision-making processes.

Taiwan's Voting System and Electoral Dynamics

Overview of Taiwan's Ballot Distribution

• The concept of "Vote Eco-Ly-Z-E" is introduced, emphasizing the importance of equal ballot distribution in Taiwan's electoral system.

• Early understanding of ballot distribution was clear among Taiwanese citizens, but foreign observers often struggled to grasp its significance.

• The term "Eco-Ly-Z-E" became synonymous with ballot distribution, though its meaning may not be fully understood by outsiders.

Historical Context of Ballot Distribution Models

• The Kuomintang (KMT) initially developed a model called "responsibility area ballot distribution," which aimed to maximize their influence in specific electoral districts.

• Each candidate had designated responsibility areas where they focused their campaigning efforts, ensuring that they did not interfere with each other's territories.

• Special party branches were utilized for mobilizing votes, particularly military and police units, which played a significant role in influencing election outcomes.

Evolution of Ballot Distribution Strategies

• With the rise of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), a new strategy known as "forced ballot distribution" emerged due to the lack of extensive organizational support compared to KMT.

• A notable instance occurred during the 1995 legislative elections when DPP promoted a unique voting strategy based on voters' birth months to optimize vote allocation among candidates.

Impact and Implications of Forced Ballot Distribution

• The DPP's approach led to unexpected results; despite concerns about vote splitting due to multiple nominations, they managed significant wins in key districts.

• This method highlighted how strategic voting could alter traditional electoral dynamics and emphasized the importance of voter mobilization techniques.

Current Trends and Future Considerations

• Recent elections have seen families engaging in automatic vote allocation based on party loyalty or strategic considerations for maximizing representation.

• The introduction of a two-vote system since 2018 has raised questions about voter behavior—whether voters will align their choices or split them between parties remains an area for further research.

Conclusion on Electoral Systems and Party Dynamics

• Understanding Taiwan’s electoral system reveals complexities that differ from Western political frameworks, highlighting unique phenomena such as forced ballot strategies.

Understanding Party Systems

Defining Political Parties and Party Systems

• The concept of party systems is crucial for understanding political dynamics, with the Effective Number of Parties (EMPP) being a significant metric.

• The discussion introduces three ways to define party systems, starting with a basic definition from American scholar Daalder.

• According to Daalder's definition, party systems can be categorized into two-party systems, multi-party systems, and dominant-party systems based on parliamentary seat distribution.

Two-Party System Characteristics

• A two-party system exists when the two main parties control over 90% of parliamentary seats without any single party exceeding 70%.

• Taiwan's electoral system exemplifies this definition as the combined vote share of its two major parties often exceeds 90%.

Multi-Party System Dynamics

• A multi-party system is characterized by more than two significant parties competing for power, where no single party holds over 70% of seats and their combined total is below 90%.

• An example illustrates that even if four parties hold varying percentages (e.g., A: 35%, B: 30%, C: 30%, D: 35%), it may not necessitate coalition government despite fitting the multi-party criteria.

Case Study: United Kingdom's Electoral Landscape

• In the UK, despite being traditionally viewed as a two-party system dominated by Labour and Conservative parties, recent elections show that their combined seat percentage has fallen below 90%.

• Historical data indicates that since 1997, the combined seat percentage for these two parties has consistently remained below this threshold, suggesting a shift in the political landscape.

One Party Dominance Explained

• Daalder also defines "dominant-party" systems where one party secures over 70% of parliamentary seats through competitive elections.

• Taiwan experienced such dominance in the past; for instance, in the 2008 elections when the Kuomintang held over 71% of seats.

Transitioning to Alternative Classifications

• The next section will explore alternative classifications proposed by scholar Sartori regarding party systems.