Bitcoin Macro Sunday - Do we see a crash at the end of June?

Introduction

The speaker welcomes the audience and introduces the topic of macro analysis on high term time frames. They also mention a sale that is going on for one more day.

Macro Analysis on High Term Time Frames

• The lowest time frame discussed is 12 hours.

• The focus is on the month of June.

• A sale is currently ongoing, but viewers are encouraged to watch promotional videos before purchasing any products.

Weekly Time Frame Analysis

The speaker discusses the weekly time frame and its potential impact on Bitcoin's price movement.

Silver Cross Potential

• The weekly time frame shows potential for a silver cross with the yellow moving average crossing above the green moving average.

• This has historically led to significant rallies in Bitcoin's price.

• If this happens, there could be an extension of the current rally in June or July.

• However, if Bitcoin drops below $26,000, it could lead to a major downside move.

June Monthly Analysis

The speaker discusses historical trends in Bitcoin's price movement during the month of June.

Historical Trends in June

• Out of 13 Junes analyzed, 8 have closed with decent upside for Bitcoin's price.

• This suggests that there may be positive price movement for Bitcoin in June.

Bitcoin Analysis for June

In this section, the speaker discusses the probability of Bitcoin's price going up or down in June based on historical data.

Probability of Upside and Downside

• The probability of Bitcoin's price going up in June is better than 50%, which is higher than what was seen in May.

• The past three Junes have closed to the downside, with the worst loss happening in 2022.

• For losers, the average loss for those months was about 17%, while for winners, it was around 26.75%.

Potential Price Movements

• If Bitcoin plays out the upside and goes for the average or somewhere around it (20 from open), that would put Bitcoin at around $33,000.

• To the downside, a loss of 17% would put Bitcoin at about $22,500.

• The speaker personally thinks that if Bitcoin breaks down from here, it will probably reach closer to $21,000.

Historical Parabolic Runs and Halvings

In this section, the speaker discusses how parabolic runs in bitcoin's history typically end with a long-term downtrend before breaking out again after a year before halving.

Historical Parabolic Runs and Downtrends

• Anytime there has been a parabolic run in bitcoin's history that ends with a long-term downtrend before breaking out again after a year before halving.

• Once it breaks that long-term downtrend on the weekly chart (typically about a year before halving), there is an initial rally somewhere between 0.5 and 6.8.

• This pattern can be seen in previous havings such as those occurring in 2011/2012 and 2014/2015.

Bitcoin's Historical Performance and Current Cycle

In this section, the speaker discusses Bitcoin's historical performance and current cycle. They compare previous rallies to the current one and analyze the average gains and days it took to reach major highs.

Historical Performance

• Comparable to prior runs, with 38.5% move to the upside.

• Previous rallies had multiple hundreds of percent move to the upside.

• First major rally after a long-term downturn had an average gain of about 140%.

Days to Reach Major Highs

• Average days it took to get to the next major high was 100 days.

• The first one only took 42 days, while the next two were significantly more at 133 and 126 respectively.

Current Cycle

• From breakout to where Bitcoin is currently at has been about day number 105.

• If Bitcoin continues this run throughout June, we would be expecting a major pullback in late summer of at least 30%, maybe even more than 40% depending on how high Bitcoin gets first.

Two-Day Time Frame Volatility vs Stochastic Momentum Setup

In this section, the speaker talks about volatility levels in relation to stochastic momentum setup on a two-day time frame.

Volatility Levels

• Two-day volatility now officially at extreme lows at 1.59 percentile.

• Lowest levels seen before massive rally that began earlier this year in January.

Stochastic Momentum Setup

• Background potential for expanding volatility.

• It's inevitable that it will expand at some point; question is how long does it stay down here?

• Longer it stays down here, higher probability for explosive move up or down.

Bitcoin Analysis and Predictions

In this section, the speaker discusses the current state of Bitcoin and provides predictions for its future movements.

Bitcoin's Current State

• The speaker believes that Bitcoin may experience another week of sideways movement before potentially making a move.

• The two-day time frame still points to the north side as long as Bitcoin closes above 26,300. If it goes below that point, it could break down significantly further.

• The speaker predicts that if Bitcoin continues to move upwards, we could see a move of 20 to 30 percent in the next month.

Six-Month Time Frame

• The six-month time frame is potentially putting in Hidden Bullish Divergence. A closure above 25,200 by the end of June would confirm this and likely result in a move towards the mid-thirty thousands or even mid-forties by year-end.

Two-Month Stochastic Oscillator

• The two-month stochastic oscillator will have a chance to cross the upside if Bitcoin closes above 26,900 by the end of June.

Twelve-Hour Time Frame

• The bottom side of the current twelve-hour time frame range is at about 26,200. A good early warning signal for an extension to the upside would be a twelve-hour closure above 27,550.