Dr Alexander Elder 2023 / Bank sector / FED meeting / SP500 GOLD BRENT BTC Lululemon XOM Moderna

Introduction

The speaker welcomes the audience and introduces the topic of discussion, which is markets, stocks, and other interesting things that happen on the markets. He also mentions that trading and investing come with risks.

• The speaker welcomes the audience to a session about markets, stocks, and other interesting things that happen on the markets.

• He emphasizes that trading and investing come with risks.

Admirals Overview

The speaker provides an overview of Admirals as a brokerage company, its licenses in different jurisdictions, and the services it offers to traders and investors.

• Admirals is a brokerage company that operates all over the world with different licenses for Cyprus, UK United Kingdom, Canada, South Africa, among others.

• Clients can trade or invest in more than 8,000 different instruments including currencies, stocks commodities and other assets.

• Admirals offers several platforms including MetaTrader and its own native trading platform accessible from Traders rooms without installing any software. It also has a mobile app for clients to keep track of their accounts on-the-go.

Education

The speaker highlights Admirals' focus on education for traders and investors.

• Admirals pays attention to education for traders and investors because it's important to understand how markets work before investing real money in them.

• Clients can follow educational activities by subscribing to Admirals' YouTube channel where recordings of webinars are uploaded one day after each session or joining their Telegram Channel where they provide updates about market situations and upcoming events.

Market Situation

The speaker introduces the main part of the session, which is Alexander's opinion and thoughts about the current market situation. They will go through different instruments that represent the situation in different markets like S&P, DAX, Euro USD, gold, among others.

• The main part of the session is Alexander's opinion and thoughts about the current market situation.

• They will go through different instruments that represent the situation in different markets like S&P, DAX, Euro USD, gold, among others.

Stocks Review

The speaker mentions that they will review some stocks to understand Alexander's way of thinking.

• They will review some stocks to understand Alexander's way of thinking.

Snapshot from Stock Market

The speaker provides a snapshot from a stock market to show how it has performed for past months.

• A snapshot from a stock market shows how it has performed for past months.

Conclusion

The speaker concludes by thanking Alexander for his time and sharing his enormous experience in trading and investing with them.

• The speaker thanks Alexander for his time and sharing his enormous experience in trading and investing with them.

• He also explains how it's possible to use Alexander's indicators on MT5 platform and introduces their contest where participants can win a book with Alexander's signature as a prize.

The Importance of Risk Management

In this section, the speaker emphasizes the importance of risk management in trading and how it separates professionals from amateurs.

Key Points:

• Professionals always pay attention to managing risks and controlling them.

• Amateurs often overlook the importance of risk management.

• The speaker will discuss indicators and systems but will also make comments about risk management.

Learning About Risk Management

In this section, the speaker talks about his experience as an amateur trader who knew nothing about risk management.

Key Points:

• When he started trading, nobody talked about risk management.

• He kept making money but also burning it until he figured out the importance of managing risks.

Analyzing Crude Oil Market

In this section, the speaker analyzes the crude oil market and discusses a technique that is his favorite for trading.

Key Points:

• Crude oil broke out above its buying panic but then sank below it, which is a sell signal.

• The most interesting indicator here is forced index with yellow dots indicating panic selling.

• False upside breakout with bearish diversions is his favorite trading system.

Analyzing S&P Market

In this section, the speaker analyzes the S&P market and emphasizes that markets should be analyzed in at least two time frames.

Key Points:

• Two highly important levels on the weekly chart are approximately 4200 and 3750 on S&P.

• Bear markets have characteristic patterns such as lower highs and lower lows while bull markets have higher highs and higher lows.

• If S&P goes above February peak, it will change from bear market pattern to bull market pattern. If it takes out December low, it will confirm bear market pattern.

• It is important to analyze markets in at least two time frames.

Analysis of the S&P 500

In this section, the speaker analyzes the S&P 500 and identifies potential issues with the current market rally.

Bearish Divergence in Weekly Chart

• Climbing higher but histogram peaks are getting lower

• Bull is getting tired

• Bearish divergence shown in weekly chart

• Caution advised when looking at daily chart

New High New Low Index

• Best leading indicator of stock market according to speaker

• New highs indicate strength while new lows indicate weakness

• Weekly chart shows bear market staying below zero line

• Zero line crossed during rally peaks

• Current rally leadership is weak with sinking new high new low index

Analysis of the DAX Market

In this section, the speaker analyzes the German DAX market and identifies potential issues with its current rally.

Rally Beginning Last Autumn

• Strong rally began last autumn

• Pullback occurred in March

• Height of bars on chart reflect level of activity during that time period

• Recent bars are very small indicating lack of enthusiasm for current rally

Dax Analysis

In this section, the speaker analyzes the Dax and provides insights on how to trade it.

Bullish Trend

• The Dax is in an uptrend.

• If it breaks below the red line, there will be a false upside breakout.

• The height of the MACD histogram at the right side indicates a bull market.

Trading Strategy

• If day trading, buy because the trend is up.

• If investing for several weeks, hold off as prices are overbought.

• Keep an eye on the red line. Once it's broken, short heavily.

Gold Analysis

In this section, the speaker analyzes gold and provides insights on whether it's a good time to buy.

Weekly Chart

• Gold is in a strong bullish trend driven by inflation.

• The weekly chart is overbought and declining.

Daily Chart

• A bearish divergence happened about a week ago.

• There was a false breakout even when gold went to new highs.

• The force index shows bearish divergence.

• Gold cracked last week and stabbed below its value zone today.

Understanding the Impulse System

In this section, Dr. Elder explains the impulse system and how it works in trading.

The Impulse System

• The impulse system prohibits selling short when it's green and buying when it's red.

• When the impulse system is blue, traders can do anything they want.

• Gold is a good buy option once the impulse system goes from red to blue.

• The weekly chart suggests that the bull market for gold has not ended yet, but traders need to wait for the daily chart to confirm before getting in.

Analyzing Euro USD

In this section, Dr. Elder analyzes Euro USD and discusses whether it's a good time to sell short or buy.

Analyzing Euro USD

• The weekly chart of Euro USD shows a breakout above last year's high with an upside false breakout.

• There was almost an 18% rally in euro from 92 cents on a dial to about $1.10.

• Bulls are losing power near the right edge of the daily chart, allowing traders to sell short.

• However, traders should wait for more confirmation from the weekly chart before making any moves.

Oil Trading Strategies

In this section, Dr. Elder discusses oil trading strategies based on long-term and short-term charts.

Long-Term Chart Analysis

• The long-term chart suggests that we're near the beginning of a new bull market in oil with beautiful bullish diversions on the weekly chart.

Short-Term Chart Analysis

• Oil is overbought with bearish diversions of force index on its short-term charts.

• It's already in or below its value zone, so traders should make it a very short-term trade if they're shorting oil.

• There may be a little bit more left in the decline, but traders should not insist on the gap closing.

Crypto Skepticism

In this section, the speaker expresses skepticism towards cryptocurrency and compares it to "The Emperor's New Clothes." However, he acknowledges that for people living in countries with currency controls, crypto provides an opportunity to move money across borders.

Crypto as a Trading Vehicle

• The speaker believes that crypto is not money but rather a trading vehicle.

• He argues that money is a store of value, and there's not too much story of value in something that can swing so wildly.

• The weekly chart shows that Bitcoin is seriously overbought, while the daily chart has bearish diversions between February-March and now.

• The speaker predicts that Bitcoin is ready for a long slide.

General Motors Company Trade Analysis

In this section, the speaker analyzes a trade suggested by a contest winner who recommended buying General Motors Company stock.

Weekly Chart Analysis

• The stock is in a year-long trading range.

• People tend to buy near the top and sell near the lower end of the range.

• The winner bought low and sold high.

Daily Chart Analysis

• There were multiple clear signs of a bottom before the winner entered the trade.

• He did not catch the top.

Trading Strategies for Stocks

Alexander discusses two trading strategies for stocks - buying below value and selling above value, and not allowing oneself to sell short below value or buy above value.

Two Trading Strategies

• One strategy is to buy a stock below its value and sell it above its value. This is a logical trade that requires patience.

• Another strategy is to not allow oneself to sell short below the stock's value or buy above its value. This is a key trading discipline that should be followed.

• The first trade reviewed was an impressive example of buying low and selling high.

• The second trade reviewed violated the key trading discipline of not buying above the stock's value.

Importance of Buying Below Value

Alexander emphasizes the importance of buying stocks below their values and selling them above their values.

Buying Below Value

• Buying stocks below their values is important because it allows one to purchase merchandise at a cheaper price.

• It's important to know what the true value of a stock is before making any purchases.

• Violating this key trading discipline can result in losses, as seen in the second trade reviewed earlier.

Trying to Catch a Falling Knife

Alexander discusses how trying to catch a bottom in a falling market can be dangerous, using an analogy of catching a falling knife.

Catching a Falling Knife

• Trying to catch a bottom in a falling market is like trying to catch a falling knife - you're likely going to get hurt.

• It's better to wait until the market has hit bottom before making any purchases.

• The winning GM trade was an example of waiting until clear signs indicated that the market had hit bottom before making any purchases.

Analyzing a Dutch Shipping Company

Alexander analyzes the weekly chart of a Dutch shipping company, Mars, and discusses bullish divergences in the force index and MACD lines.

Analyzing Mars

• The weekly chart of Mars shows a major false downside breakout.

• There are bullish divergences in the force index and MACD lines.

• Although the chart looks scary due to its significant drop, the bullish divergences suggest that this is a good time to buy.

Trading Strategies

In this section, the speaker discusses trading strategies for two companies, including entry points, targets, and stops.

Trading Lululemon

• The speaker suggests that Lululemon is a good candidate for shorting based on its weekly chart pattern.

• The stock has a history of running up and then collapsing.

• The speaker recommends waiting for the impulse system to stop being green on the weekly chart before entering a short position.

• Entry point should be around $373 with a target in the value zone at around $333.

• Stop loss should be at least 1.5 times the average true range (ATR), which is currently $9 per share.

Risk Management

• Every trade plan must include three numbers: entry point, target, and stop loss.

• The speaker uses ATR channels to determine stop loss levels based on the average level of noise in a particular stock.

• To calculate how many shares to trade, use the Iron Triangle of risk control:

• Calculate your risk per stock

• Take 2% of your account as total permitted risk

• Divide total permitted risk by risk per share to get number of shares you can trade

• For example, if you have $100k in your trading account and are allowed to risk no more than 2%, or $2k, you can trade up to 140 shares with a stop loss of $14.

Trading Stocks

In this section, the speaker discusses trading stocks and provides insights on Lulu, Exxon Mobil, Merck Pharmaceutical, and Moderna.

Lulu

• The speaker finds Lulu attractive and will be looking at it later.

• Once the impulse system starts being blue, he will be permitted to sell it short.

• As of now, Lulu is trading at 372.80 with a crossover line at 361 dollars.

Exxon Mobil

• The weekly chart for Exxon Mobil shows gorgeous bearish diversions in December.

• The speaker wishes Admiral markets owned a time machine that would allow traders to go back a few months and put a trade in the past.

• There is no perfect pattern between weekly and daily charts; one time frame has to look perfect while the other has to be okay.

Merck Pharmaceutical

• Pharmaceuticals have been running for the last few months.

• A false upside breakout has already been completed in Merck Pharmaceutical.

• If Merck goes down three dollars this week or only one dollar next week, it will take the handcuffs off of the speaker.

Moderna

• Moderna is an advanced company coming out with fantastic treatments.

• It's going to have money coming in because they were selling vaccines.

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Moderna Stock Analysis

In this section, Alexander discusses his thoughts on the current state of Moderna's stock and potential buying opportunities.

Moderna's Long-Term Bottoming Area

• Moderna is approaching its long-term bottoming area on the daily chart.

• The impulse system is red, indicating a potential buying opportunity.

• Alexander has a system for rating stocks, not for trading them.

Trading Opportunities

• Alexander mentions three stocks he may trade: MMA Trade today, Lulu B in a few days, and Merc C in a week.

• He advises checking back on Moderna next week as it approaches its bottoming area.

Q&A Session

In this section, Alexander answers questions from viewers about missing right shoulder divergences and monthly chart trading strategies.

Missing Right Shoulder Divergences

• A viewer asks if missing right shoulder divergences have a high probability of hitting stop loss in regular ones.

• Alexander hasn't done research on this topic but offers to look at any data the viewer has and give his opinion.

Monthly Chart Trading Strategies

• A viewer asks if Alexander waits for regular diversions or takes into account another indicator besides the impulse system when trading monthly charts.

• Another viewer asks if Alexander has ever traded diversions on a monthly chart and mentions looking at FTSE 100 on a monthly chart.

• Alexander suggests waiting for more data before making any trades based on monthly charts. He prefers weekly charts because they offer more interesting insights with shorter wait times between bars being completed.

Conclusion and Indicator Requests

In this section, the webinar concludes with final remarks from Alexander and information about requesting indicators.

Conclusion

• Alexander thanks viewers for their time and questions.

• He mentions the next session will be on May 30th after his trip to Europe.

Indicator Requests

• A viewer asks about Alexander's indicators, and the host explains that they are designed for MT5 platform and available for clients with a real account balance of over 200 Euros.

• To request indicators, viewers can send an email to elderdisk@admiralmarkets.com.

Chart Templates and Contest Rules

In this section, the speaker discusses chart templates and contest rules.

Chart Templates

• Admiral Markets provides chart templates, video tutorials, and indicators to help traders understand the market.

• These tools can be applied to a trader's strategy to generate trades or get a clue if a trade is coming.

• However, not all indicators or parts of the strategies may work for every trader since each trader is unique.

Contest Rules

• Admiral Markets has a trading contest where participants can suggest trades on their own system.

• The contest is held on paper and requires participants to suggest one trade or asset that is traded in Admirals.

• Participants must provide entry price, stop loss level, take profit level, date of post, and instrument name in their suggestion.

• The trade should be executed during the period from 20th April till 30th May when the next class will be held.

• The winner will be picked based on whose position closed with the take profit while two or three positions which were not successful will also be discussed during the next class.

Next Class Details

In this section, the speaker provides details about the next class and how to participate.

Participating in the Contest

• To participate in the contest, register for the webinar.

• The next class will be on May 30th.

• Participants who register for the webinar will receive a notification from Zoom.

• The link to join the live class with Alexander will be available in the description of this video.

Understanding Markets Better

In this section, the speaker emphasizes that they aim to help participants understand markets better.

Joining Live Class with Alexander

• Register for the webinar to join Alexander's live class.

• Pay attention to risk when participating in trading activities.

• The speaker and Alexander aim to help participants understand markets better.

Conclusion

In this section, the speaker concludes by thanking participants and inviting them to attend next month's class.

Thanking Participants

• The speaker thanks all participants for attending today's session.

• It was great having everyone here today.

Next Month's Class

• The next class will take place next month.

• See you then!