ICT Mentorship 2023 - October 04, 2023 Market Commentary & Review

Name: ICT Mentorship 2023 - October 04, 2023 Market Commentary & Review
Uploaded: 2023-10-05T01:10:08.000Z
Duration: 3 h 58 s

New Section

The speaker greets the audience and asks for confirmation that they can be seen and heard.

Checking Twitter

The speaker asks the audience to send a tweet if they can see and hear the presentation.

Dollar Index Weekly Chart

The speaker mentions that the audience should be able to see the Dollar Index weekly chart.

They request a confirmation from the audience by asking for a "5x5" response.

Background Noise

The speaker apologizes in advance for any background noise caused by household activities.

They explain that since this is a live session, editing out such noises is not possible.

Importance of Previous Commentaries

The speaker encourages the audience to watch previous commentaries to gain a better understanding of the current discussion.

They mention that without this context, it may seem like they are discussing events in hindsight.

Analysis of Dollar Index Weekly Chart

The speaker refers to an imbalance on the Dollar Index weekly chart between two candlestick levels.

They state their opinion that there is still more movement expected before reaching a conclusion.

A specific level on lower time frames is highlighted as an important reference point.

Weekend Commentary Limitations

The speaker explains that they cannot accurately forecast Sunday's opening price due to its random nature.

They emphasize that market openings are influenced by various factors beyond their control.

Gap Risk and Intraday Trading

Due to global uncertainties and potential market disruptions, the speaker prefers intraday trading over holding positions overnight or over weekends.

They mention having taken very few trades this year where positions were held beyond 5 PM settlement time.

Objective after Clearing Buy Side

The speaker mentions a specific level as the objective after clearing the buy side.

They clarify that this was discussed in the previous week's commentary.

Non-Farm Payroll Week

The speaker explains that during non-farm payroll weeks, they follow a specific protocol due to the release of employment data.

They address misconceptions about not trading on Mondays and emphasize the importance of understanding this protocol.

The transcript provided is relatively short, so there are fewer sections.

New Section

In this section, the speaker emphasizes the importance of experience and mentorship in trading and cautions new traders against jumping into the market without proper knowledge.

Importance of Experience and Mentorship

The speaker mentions that experienced traders can trade various market events, including non-farm payroll.

They highlight their own experience in live streaming and calling trades.

New traders are advised not to jump into trading without proper knowledge and experience.

The speaker takes on the role of a mentor and influencer, guiding new traders to avoid potential pitfalls.

Experienced students who have been with the speaker for a while understand the risks but still choose to trade based on their own models.

New Section

In this section, the speaker discusses how traders can learn to navigate traps in the market over time and become independent thinkers.

Navigating Traps in the Market

Over time, traders can learn to see through traps set by the market.

New students are advised not to trade until they gain more experience.

The speaker guides inexperienced traders while allowing experienced ones to make their own decisions.

There is no commitment or obligation to follow the speaker's insights or pay subscriptions.

The goal is for traders to become independent-minded thinkers and develop their own trading models.

New Section

In this section, the speaker explains that training wheels are given to protect new traders from inherent risks in the market.

Training Wheels for New Traders

Training wheels are provided as a protective measure for new traders who lack experience.

The speaker advises inexperienced traders to stay out of certain markets during specific times when risks are high.

Opening prices at the start of each week are unknown, making it challenging even for experienced traders to predict market movements.

The speaker acknowledges that they do not possess a crystal ball to predict market outcomes.

Weekend sentiment and opinions from various sources make it difficult to have a consistent prediction.

New Section

In this section, the speaker emphasizes the importance of not subscribing to others' opinions but using sentiment as a gauge for trading decisions.

Using Sentiment as a Gauge

Subscriptions to financial services often provide strong opinionated headlines rather than valuable insights.

The speaker does not read articles but focuses on understanding the sentiment created by these headlines.

Social media platforms and live streams are observed to gauge collective thoughts and opinions.

It is important for traders not to blindly follow others' opinions but consider sentiment as an indicator of retail thought.

New Section

In this section, the speaker discusses their approach to reading financial publications and the limitations of predicting market movements.

Reading Financial Publications

The speaker subscribes to Investors Business Daily, Barons, and Wall Street Journal for headline analysis.

Strongly opinionated headlines grab attention and influence market sentiment.

The speaker does not read the articles themselves but focuses on understanding what captures people's attention.

New Section

In this section, the speaker highlights how herd mentality can impact trading decisions based on social media interactions.

Impact of Herd Mentality

The speaker reads social media comments and observes live stream chats to understand collective thoughts.

Encourages hosts to conduct polls for better insights into viewers' sentiments.

Traders often seek validation or confirmation bias from others' opinions, leading to herd mentality in decision-making.

New Section

The speaker discusses the retail sentiment in trading and emphasizes the importance of avoiding herd mentality.

Understanding Retail Sentiment

Retail traders are often inexperienced but excited about trading.

They tend to have a collective mindset and join a tribe mentality.

As a trader, it is important to avoid being part of the herd and instead be an apex predator looking for opportunities.

New Section

The speaker compares retail traders' behavior to passionate football fans and highlights the need to think independently as a trader.

Independent Thinking as a Trader

Retail traders can become overly optimistic or pessimistic about their trades.

They subscribe to ideas without considering alternative perspectives.

Traders should aim to think independently and not get swayed by popular opinions.

New Section

The speaker explains the importance of conducting research using various resources before making trading decisions.

Researching Trading Opportunities

Spending time on weekends going through static resources like Barons, Investors Business Daily, and mainstream media helps gather different opinions.

Influencers in mainstream media can inspire novice traders but should be approached with caution.

Forming an opinion about market perception before the opening sessions on Monday is crucial.

New Section

The speaker discusses how live streamers' chat windows provide valuable insights into market sentiment.

Utilizing Live Streamers' Chat Windows

Live streamers who allow their chat windows open provide real-time sentiments from retail traders.

Observing their discussions helps solidify market perceptions.

Contrarian views based on technical analysis can be beneficial when they differ from popular opinions.

New Section

The speaker shares his approach of monitoring headlines from mainstream media to gauge market sentiment.

Monitoring Mainstream Media Headlines

Checking headlines from sources like Yahoo and mainstream media helps understand the influence on retail traders.

The speaker taps into these influencers' reach to gain insights into the investments of novice traders.

New Section

The speaker emphasizes that retail traders should not rely solely on opinions and services but develop their own ideas.

Developing Independent Trading Ideas

Retail traders often believe that services and opinions are there to help them, but they are just subjective views.

Spending time researching and forming personal opinions is crucial before relying on external sources.

It is important to differentiate between personal ideas and the sentiments expressed by others.

New Section

The speaker discusses how he forms his opinion about market perception before watching live streamers.

Forming Market Perception

Before watching live streamers, the speaker already has an idea about what the market is likely to perceive in the coming week.

Retail traders collectively express various ideas or opinions, some of which may be dogmatic.

Live streamers' chat windows help confirm or challenge existing perceptions based on technical analysis.

New Section

The speaker explains his presence as an audience member in live streamers' chat rooms.

Observing Live Streamers' Chat Rooms

The speaker sometimes remains anonymous while observing live streamers' chat rooms.

Some individuals may troll or criticize the speaker's community despite being supporters in disguise.

Sentiment shifts occur right before the opening bell when people start expressing strong opinions.

New Section

The speaker highlights the importance of independent thinking and technical analysis over blindly following popular sentiments.

Avoiding Blindly Following Popular Sentiments

Dogmatic sentiments expressed in live streamers' chat rooms should be approached with caution.

Technical analysis and personal ideas should guide trading decisions rather than blindly following popular opinions.

New Section

The speaker addresses the presence of individuals who may troll or criticize his community.

Dealing with Trolls and Critics

While the speaker does not encourage trolling, some individuals within his community may exhibit such behavior.

Sentiment shifts occur when people start expressing strong opinions right before the opening bell.

The speaker uses football fans as an analogy to understand human psychology in trading.

New Section

The speaker discusses how he utilizes technical analysis and market sentiment to inform his trading decisions.

Utilizing Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment

The speaker combines technical analysis with market sentiment to form his trading strategies.

Understanding human psychology, as observed through live streamers' chat rooms, helps identify potential opportunities.

Personal technical analysis guides the speaker's decision-making process.

New Section

The speaker explains how he aims to trade based on technical analysis while considering market sentiment.

Trading Based on Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment

The speaker aims to trade based on technical analysis while taking into account market sentiment observed through live streamers' chat rooms.

He emphasizes that his own ideas are already formed before watching live streams as an audience member.

Contrarian views can be beneficial when they align with personal technical analysis.

New Section

The speaker discusses the impact of raising interest rates on the market and the role of the US dollar as a global reserve currency.

Impact of Interest Rates and Dollar as Global Reserve (0:20:01 - 0:20:58)

Raising interest rates can inspire repatriation of the dollar, leading to an increase in its value.

The US dollar is still considered the primary global reserve currency despite political uncertainties.

Increasing interest rates can also lead to a risk-off scenario, causing outflows from foreign currencies into the dollar.

New Section

The speaker mentions that there is a possibility for BRICS nations to unseat the US as a global reserve currency.

Possibility of BRICS Nations Unseating US

The speaker believes that it is potentially possible for BRICS nations to challenge the dominance of the US dollar as a global reserve currency.

New Section

Despite political uncertainties, the US dollar remains strong compared to other currencies due to its status as a global reserve currency.

Role of US Dollar and Political Uncertainties (0:20:30 - 0:21:23)

The US dollar continues to be trusted over other currencies despite political uncertainties in Washington.

Interest rate changes drive fluctuations in exchange rates and can cause outflows from foreign currencies into the dollar.

This risk-off scenario leads to declines in equity markets such as S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and Dow Jones.

New Section

The speaker explains how buying and selling pressure affects foreign currencies during risk-off scenarios.

Buying and Selling Pressure during Risk-off Scenarios (0:20:58 - 0:21:50)

Fluctuations in interest rates create differentials that cause outflows from foreign currencies and inflows into the dollar.

This teeter-totter effect between buying and selling of dollars and foreign currencies leads to a one-sided risk-off scenario.

Further declines in equity markets, such as S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100, can be expected during this risk-off period.

New Section

The speaker advises on trading strategies during non-farm payroll week and the importance of economic calendars.

Trading Strategies during Non-Farm Payroll Week (0:21:23 - 0:24:34)

Non-farm payroll week is best traded on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday morning session.

It is recommended to close positions by 11 AM New York local time on Wednesday.

Traders should refer to economic calendars for important events like non-farm payroll data before starting their trading week.

New Section

The speaker emphasizes the importance of understanding market context and avoiding premature conclusions.

Importance of Market Context and Avoiding Premature Conclusions (0:22:16 - 0:25:59)

Market movements should be analyzed within the context of previous patterns and indicators.

Premature conclusions based on limited information can lead to frustration and incorrect assumptions.

Traders should avoid forming toxic ideas or doubting established concepts due to initial difficulties.

Timestamps are approximate. Please refer to the actual video for precise timings.

Willingness to Respect and Trading Strategies

In this section, the speaker discusses the importance of having a willingness to respect the market and shares some trading strategies.

Importance of Having a Plan

It is crucial to have a plan in place before entering trades.

Lower time frame charts can be used to build a bullish structure.

Look for down closed candles supporting price up close candles being broken to the upside.

Stop Hunts on the downside that show immediate displacement can indicate bullish movement.

Protocols and Procedures

Having protocols and procedures in place is essential for successful trading.

Winging it or relying solely on gut feelings is not a viable approach.

Knowing what to do in different scenarios helps manage risk effectively.

Uncertainty and Risk Management

The speaker highlights the uncertainty surrounding market conditions, such as weekend openings and non-farm payroll announcements.

Opening gaps higher can impact trading strategies.

New traders should be cautious during uncertain times as rapid repricing can occur.

Realistic Expectations

New traders should avoid unrealistic expectations, such as expecting frequent straight setups or overleveraging trades.

It takes time to develop skills and learn about oneself in relation to the market.

Trading Days and Accumulation

This section focuses on specific trading days, particularly Mondays during non-farm payroll weeks, and discusses accumulation of retail logic.

Non-Farm Payroll Weeks

Mondays during non-farm payroll weeks are always considered trading days.

However, it may be advisable for new traders to sit out unless there is an obvious setup.

Accumulation Day

Mondays tend to be accumulation days where retail logic dominates trading decisions.

Price action strategies may not align with actual price movements during these times.

Conclusion

The transcript provides insights into the importance of having a plan, protocols, and realistic expectations in trading. It emphasizes the need to respect the market and avoid overleveraging or relying solely on gut feelings. The speaker also discusses specific trading days, particularly Mondays during non-farm payroll weeks, and highlights the accumulation of retail logic during these times.

Analyzing the Daily Chart

The speaker, referred to as Inner Circle Trader (ICT), discusses their thoughts on the market for the rest of the week based on the daily chart.

Key Points:

ICT wants to see a down closed candle on the daily chart.

The mean threshold, which is the midpoint of that candle, should act as support and prevent price from closing below it.

Closing below 106.38 would indicate a problem for the week but not necessarily for future weeks.

If price closes below this level, it suggests that making a higher high by the end of the week or after non-farm payroll numbers may be challenging.

ICT emphasizes that closing below this level does not imply going short but rather indicates a problematic situation.

Examining the Hourly Chart

ICT provides insights into trading opportunities on the hourly chart.

Key Points:

Price is trading down into an inefficiency on the hourly chart.

There is a specific level below which ICT does not want to see price close. This level corresponds to the mean threshold of a previous down closed candle on the daily chart.

Although price may touch this level and then resume higher, closing below it would be significant.

Understanding Order Blocks

ICT explains order blocks and their relevance in trading decisions.

Key Points:

An order block is identified on the hourly chart with a fair value gap, indicating potential accumulation and strong support.

However, since it is non-farm payroll time, caution should be exercised before making any major trading decisions based solely on this information.

Importance of Comprehensive Education

ICT emphasizes the importance of comprehensive education and understanding market manipulation.

Key Points:

ICT advises against trying to save others or being overly concerned about their trading decisions.

Traders should focus on their own education and develop a mature mindset.

Market manipulation can make it difficult for traders to be consistently successful, even with sound concepts.

It is better to let others learn from their mistakes rather than risking one's own capital unnecessarily.

Identifying Potential Mistakes

ICT discusses the importance of identifying potential mistakes in trading.

Key Points:

Traders should be aware of situations where they are likely to get it wrong, even with good concepts.

Understanding when market conditions are unfavorable due to manipulation or intervention can help avoid unnecessary risks.

By recognizing potential mistakes, traders can become more mature and avoid the fear of missing out on certain moves.

Please note that these summaries are based solely on the provided transcript and may not capture the full context or details of the original video.

New Section

In this section, the speaker discusses the importance of studying market setups and warns against trading during certain market conditions.

Study Market Setups

It is important to study market setups before trading.

The speaker's concepts, like others', may not always work due to external factors in the marketplace.

New traders or students are advised not to trade during certain market conditions.

Phantoms in price action can occur during these times, making it difficult to accurately predict market movements.

High Probability Trading

High probability trading involves framing the marketplace on a one-sidedness basis.

If you believe the market will go higher (bullish), there should be no justifiable reason to see it as a short sale (bearish).

Similarly, if you believe the market will go lower (bearish), there should be no bullish indications.

By focusing on high probability setups, traders can increase accuracy and reduce trade frequency.

Benefits of Less Frequency

Trading with less frequency can lead to cost control, including reduced commissions.

It allows for more time outside of charts and a better work-life balance.

Trying to capture every small fluctuation in the market increases the likelihood of eventual losing trades.

Focus on Quality Setups

Instead of trying to trade every day, focus on quality setups that yield higher returns.

Many traders who attempt high-frequency trading have lower hit rates and accuracy than expected.

The speaker provides specific levels and ideas on Twitter for analysis purposes.

Long-Term Perspective

Traders should aim for long-term success rather than short-term excitement from high-frequency trading.

High-frequency trading requires low contract sizes due to offsetting commission costs.

Understanding Commissions

Commissions are similar to taxes; they cannot be escaped when trading frequently.

The more trades made over time, the higher the commission costs.

Traders should consider commissions as a necessary part of trading and factor them into their strategies.

New Section

In this section, the speaker discusses the importance of finding one's trading style and considering leverage and trade size when engaging in high-frequency trading.

Trading Style Considerations

Traders need to determine if high-frequency trading aligns with their goals and preferences.

High-frequency trading involves a lot of transactions but requires less leverage and smaller trade sizes.

It is important to assess hit rates and accuracy before committing to high-frequency trading.

Leverage and Trade Size

When engaging in high-frequency trading, it is advisable to use low contract sizes due to commission costs.

Higher hit rates are needed to offset these costs effectively.

Traders will only know their hit rate once they start trading with real money.

Commission Perspective

Commissions should not be feared but seen as a necessary aspect of trading.

Similar to how taxes reduce earnings, commissions reduce profits in trading.

New Section

In this section, the speaker emphasizes that traders should focus on what they actually earn after accounting for commissions. They also discuss how increasing trade frequency leads to higher commission costs over time.

Actual Earnings vs. Reported Earnings

Traders should consider what they actually earn after accounting for commissions when discussing their earnings with others.

Commissions act as a deduction from profits similar to taxes on income earned from a job.

Increasing Trade Frequency

As traders increase their trade frequency, commission costs also increase over time.

More trades lead to more commission expenses, reducing overall profitability.

The transcript provided does not contain any further sections or timestamps beyond this point.

Paying Commissions and Trading Costs

The speaker discusses the importance of understanding and managing trading costs, particularly commissions. They explain that even low commissions can add up if you trade frequently, and it's essential to consider the volume and frequency of your trades when calculating costs. The speaker emphasizes the need to gradually grow into higher trade frequencies and leverage amounts to manage costs effectively.

Understanding Trading Costs

Paying commissions is necessary for trading, even if they seem low.

Trading a high volume or frequency can result in significant monthly commission expenses.

It's crucial to consider trade frequency and leverage when determining costs.

Forex trading involves spreads instead of direct commissions but still incurs costs.

Losses from frequent small trades can be similar to commission costs in futures trading.

Managing Trading Costs

Gradually increase trade frequency and leverage as you gain experience.

Over time, with skill development and experience, there are no limits to potential earnings.

Making substantial profits takes time; overnight success is unlikely.

YouTube Channel Recommendations

The speaker addresses a comment about creating additional YouTube channels for fake thumbs up and views. They clarify that their suggestion was misunderstood. The speaker explains that some viewers prefer not to mix trading videos with other content on their personal YouTube accounts. They suggest creating a separate channel dedicated solely to trading-related content for those who want to support them by giving thumbs up on those videos.

Separate YouTube Channel for Trading Content

Some viewers prefer not to mix trading videos with other types of content on their personal YouTube accounts.

Creating a separate channel exclusively for trading-related content allows viewers to support the speaker by giving thumbs up on those videos.

Thumbs up on trading videos are appreciated but not mandatory; the main goal is providing value and inspiration.

Daily Market Review Proposal

The speaker discusses a proposal for daily pre-market and post-market reviews. They explain that these reviews would predict market movements before they happen and analyze how the market performed during the day. However, the proposal required 25,000 likes from viewers, which was not achieved.

Daily Market Review Proposal

The speaker proposed daily pre-market and post-market reviews.

These reviews would predict market movements and analyze daily performance.

Each review could be done in approximately 20 minutes.

The proposal required 25,000 likes from viewers to proceed but was not met.

Euro Dollar Analysis

The speaker analyzes the Euro Dollar on a daily chart. They discuss their previous predictions about the Euro being heavy due to bullishness in the dollar. The speaker highlights that their analysis aligns with what is currently happening on the chart, emphasizing that there is no manipulation involved.

Euro Dollar Analysis

Previous predictions indicated that the Euro would be heavy due to dollar bullishness.

Chart analysis confirms previous predictions of trading below specific levels.

The speaker's analysis aligns with current chart patterns.

There is no manipulation involved; it is based on tools and concepts taught over many years.

Timestamps have been associated with relevant bullet points as requested.

New Section

In this section, the speaker discusses the concept of imbalances and how they are taught in their algorithm. They explain three specific levels that are paramount for understanding imbalances.

Understanding Imbalances

Imbalance High is framed by the low of a candle.

Imbalance Low is framed by the high of a candle.

Consequent encroachment refers to the midpoint between these two levels.

There are also upper quadrant and lower quadrant levels that may be considered, depending on the range and significance of the imbalance.

New Section

The speaker continues discussing imbalances and introduces the idea of quadrant levels.

Quadrant Levels

The upper quadrant level is reached when price moves towards it, even if it falls slightly short.

Similarly, the lower quadrant level is considered when price approaches it, even if it doesn't reach it completely.

These quadrant levels become significant when there is a sufficient range to allow for their influence.

New Section

The speaker explains how they determine which levels to consider based on range and significance.

Range and Significance

If the range is small (e.g., 10 or 9 pips), only the high, low, and midpoint are considered.

When there is a sufficient range, including quadrant levels becomes relevant.

It's important to assess whether an imbalance has a significant enough range to consider these additional levels.

New Section

The speaker shares their perspective on support/resistance trading and supply/demand zones.

Support/Resistance Trading and Supply/Demand Zones

The speaker does not subscribe to support/resistance trading or supply/demand zones as primary concepts in their approach.

They consider these concepts elementary and vague, not always salient to the market's underlying narrative.

The speaker focuses on liquidity and inefficiencies as the primary factors in trading decisions.

New Section

The speaker emphasizes the importance of focusing on smart money perspective and higher time frames.

Smart Money Perspective

The speaker highlights the significance of higher time frames for understanding institutional order flow and real order flow.

They discourage relying solely on patterns or retail theories, emphasizing the need to focus on liquidity and inefficiencies.

Consolidation or manipulation can lead to losses if traders are not focused on liquidity and inefficiencies.

New Section

The speaker concludes by highlighting the freedom that comes from focusing on liquidity and inefficiencies.

Focus on Liquidity and Inefficiencies

The speaker suggests that focusing solely on liquidity and inefficiencies can be liberating for traders.

They emphasize that trading is about finding liquidity opportunities, rather than predicting price patterns or relying on theories.

By understanding this perspective, traders can avoid getting caught up in consolidation or manipulation.

The Power of Confidence in Trading

In this section, the speaker emphasizes the importance of confidence in trading and how it can lead to success. They explain that their strategies are not based on random market movements but rather on a deep understanding of the markets.

Unrivaled Confidence in Trading

The speaker compares their trading approach to a spider luring its prey into a sticky web, highlighting the importance of confidence in attracting success.

They emphasize that their goal is for traders to hang out and be successful by using their strategies.

The speaker distinguishes between arrogance and unrivaled confidence, stating that their confidence comes from understanding that markets are not random.

Overcoming Fear and Impulsiveness

Traders are encouraged to overcome fear of the market and instead fear their own lack of discipline and impulsiveness.

The speaker reassures traders that there is an abundance of opportunities available across different time frames, dispelling the fear of missing out on specific trades.

Trading at Different Time Frames

The speaker highlights the flexibility of their strategies by mentioning how they can teach traders to make significant profits within short time frames such as 30 seconds or 15 minutes.

It is acknowledged that not all traders may feel comfortable with fast-paced trading, but it is emphasized that the speed at which markets move remains consistent regardless of time frame.

Focusing on What Matters in Trading

In this section, the speaker discusses the importance of focusing on relevant aspects of trading rather than getting distracted by unnecessary patterns or indicators.

Observing What Matters Most

Traders are advised to focus on observing the key elements that drive market movements, rather than getting caught up in irrelevant patterns or indicators.

The speaker emphasizes their ability to accurately predict market movements in real-time, without resorting to manipulation or fraud.

Embracing the Reality of Trading

Traders are encouraged to let go of resistance and accept the reality of how markets function. The speaker urges them to learn and start making money without feeling obligated to reach out or give credit.

It is emphasized that the strategies being taught are not complicated and can lead to financial success. Traders are urged to have realistic expectations and not put unnecessary pressure on themselves.

Appreciating the Gift of Knowledge

In this section, the speaker expresses frustration with traders who fail to appreciate the valuable knowledge being shared for free.

A Gift Horse in Disguise

The speaker highlights how they could be making millions of dollars a month but choose instead to share their knowledge for free. They express disappointment at those who fail to recognize this gift and its potential for financial success.

Traders are reminded that learning from these teachings can lead them towards a better life and financial success, even if they don't acknowledge or thank the speaker personally.

Final Thoughts

The speaker acknowledges that their enthusiasm may come across as excessive due to being cooped up in an RV, but they reiterate their genuine desire for traders' success and well-being.

Understanding the Spread in Forex Trading

The speaker discusses the spread in forex trading and emphasizes that it is the difference between buying and selling prices offered by brokers. They highlight that this is a significant factor to consider when evaluating brokers.

Spread as a Key Factor

The spread, which refers to the difference between buying and selling prices, can vary significantly among different brokers.

It is important to understand the spread offered by a broker before considering their services.

The speaker mentions that some brokers may have high spreads, such as 2.2 pips, which can impact trading strategies.

Precision in Determining Turning Points

The speaker highlights the precision in determining turning points in forex trading and how it can be impressive. They mention that with accurate predictions, the only variance would be due to dealing spreads of brokers.

Impressive Precision

The speaker emphasizes their ability to determine turning points with a high degree of precision.

They mention that even with dealing spreads as the only variance among brokers, their predictions still hold true.

This level of accuracy is particularly notable considering the size of the foreign exchange market.

Utilizing Turning Points for Trading Setups

The speaker explains how turning points can be used for trading setups on various time frames. They suggest spreading out setups across different time frames for better opportunities.

Spreading Out Time Frames

To maximize opportunities, traders should consider using multiple time frames such as hourly, five-minute, one-minute, and even seconds charts.

Lower time frames often provide numerous opportunities that may go unnoticed on higher time frames.

When specific levels or turning points are reached on higher time frames, traders can drop down to lower time frames for trading in the direction of those levels.

Opportunities on Daily Charts

The speaker discusses the abundance of opportunities that can be found on daily charts and advises traders to pay attention to them.

Daily Chart Opportunities

While not occurring every day, daily charts offer numerous opportunities for trading.

The speaker suggests looking for turning points or specific levels on daily charts that are likely to have a significant impact on price movement.

Traders should focus on trading in the direction of these levels by utilizing lower time frames during sessions like New York or London.

Avoiding Extreme Trading Strategies

The speaker cautions against extreme trading strategies such as trying to pick market bottoms or tops. They emphasize the importance of using turning points and liquidity for successful trades.

Avoiding Extreme Strategies

Traders should avoid attempting to pick market bottoms in bearish markets or tops in bullish markets.

Instead, they should focus on identifying turning points and specific levels where price is likely to respond.

Utilizing liquidity and trading into inefficiencies can be effective strategies, but it is important not to overestimate their impact.

Precision Across Time Frames

The speaker emphasizes that their precision in forex trading is not limited to lower time frames. They explain how price action analysis can be applied across different time frames.

Precision Across Time Frames

The speaker's precision in forex trading extends beyond lower time frames like one minute or 30-second charts.

Price action analysis can be taught without reference to specific time frames, as price is price regardless of the chart's time delimiter.

While top-down analysis has its merits, traders need to consider the relative perspective they hold and not assume that lower time frames are inherently faster.

Perspective on Time Frames

The speaker discusses the perspective of different time frames in trading and how it can vary based on individual experiences.

Relative Perspective

Traders' perspectives on time frames can be influenced by their preconceived ideas and notions.

The speaker highlights that the pace of markets is relative to the perspective one holds, whether it's a monthly chart or a one-minute chart.

It is important to recognize that slower time frames like monthly charts can still offer trading opportunities, albeit at a different pace.

Continuous Learning and New Setups

The speaker emphasizes the importance of continuous learning and adapting to new setups in forex trading.

Continuous Learning

Traders should always be open to learning new setups and strategies.

There are always new opportunities emerging, so traders should not solely rely on past successes or failures.

The speaker encourages traders to stay engaged with educational videos, even if they may become lengthy, as they often contain valuable lessons.

Example of Trading Model Using Stochastic Indicator

The speaker shares an example of a trading model they used in the past involving the stochastic indicator. They highlight its relevance for beginners but note that their current approach has evolved beyond this strategy.

Example Trading Model

In the beginning, the speaker used a stochastic indicator for their trading model, specifically looking for oversold conditions.

They would wait for bullish crossovers while oversold on daily charts before considering long positions.

Additionally, they would look for confirmation on hourly charts with oversold conditions before entering trades.

Using Lower Time Frames for Mitigating Losing Trades

In this section, the speaker discusses their initial use of lower time frames to mitigate losing trades on their preferred model. They explain how they would drop down to lower time frames when their model was not effective and take smaller profits to recover from losses.

Gradual Learning Curve

The speaker started using lower time frames not to build big positions or pyramid trades, but rather to mitigate losing trades on their chosen model.

They would drop down to lower time frames when their model was ineffective and take chunks out of losing trades multiple times in a day to recover.

Over time, the speaker gradually transitioned from trading with one contract on shorter time frames to trading with multiple contracts on higher time frames.

Disappointment with Books and Resources

The speaker discovered that books and resources they bought were not successful for them.

These materials created more puzzles and wasted their time trying to figure them out.

Despite being worthless in terms of value, the books held sentimental value due to the hopes placed on them.

Writing Books as Codified Knowledge

The speaker advises against buying books, including their own.

They write books as a way of codifying their knowledge and strategies.

Their authored content is based on coded procedures and protocols that accurately predict market movements.

Superiority through Independent Analysis

The speaker emphasizes that what they do is unique and superior compared to others in terms of analysis.

They have procedures and protocols that guide them when not to trade, unlike others who constantly chase setups.

Being content as an analyst with an independent mindset is a sign of maturity and wisdom.

Encouraging Independence from the Speaker

The speaker wants listeners/students to eventually become independent from them.

They want individuals to outgrow the need for their YouTube channel or guidance.

Unlike other content creators, the speaker encourages learners to move beyond their teachings and become self-sufficient in their trading journey.

The Importance of Contentment as an Analyst

In this section, the speaker emphasizes the value of contentment as an analyst. They discuss how some individuals are constantly chasing the next setup and fail to appreciate the importance of being patient and satisfied with their achievements.

Appreciating Contentment

The speaker highlights the value of being content as an analyst.

Some individuals are always seeking the next trade setup, even after achieving success.

They urge listeners to sit still and enjoy their accomplishments rather than constantly chasing new opportunities.

Addiction to Constantly Seeking New Setups

The speaker mentions students who paid for their guidance but still seek constant updates and analysis.

These individuals are addicted to knowing what's next and never truly understand contentment as an analyst.

They rely on external catalysts or drivers instead of developing independent analysis skills.

Independence from the Speaker

The speaker wants listeners/students to reach a point where they no longer need their guidance or YouTube channel.

Unlike other content creators who want viewers to keep coming back, the speaker wants learners to outgrow them.

Their goal is for individuals to become self-sufficient in their trading journey and develop their own momentum.

Conclusion

In this transcript, the speaker discusses their experience using lower time frames for mitigating losing trades. They emphasize the disappointment with books and resources that did not live up to expectations. The importance of contentment as an analyst is highlighted, encouraging learners to be patient and satisfied with their achievements. The ultimate goal is for individuals to become independent from the speaker's guidance and develop their own momentum in trading.

The Importance of Developing a Skill Set for Financial Security

In this section, the speaker emphasizes the importance of developing a skill set to secure financial stability, especially during challenging times. They mention that even rich individuals will face difficulties and having an additional stream of income can help meet financial obligations.

Developing a Skill Set for Financial Security

It is crucial to develop a skill set that can provide an additional stream of income.

Rich people may also face challenges, so having multiple sources of income is beneficial.

While getting rich with the skill set is possible, the primary goal is to ensure financial stability and meet expenses.

Providing Information for Free and Real Money Trading

The speaker discusses their willingness to share information for free and highlights the value it brings. They mention that they do not expect any payment but want others to benefit from their experience in real money trading.

Sharing Information for Free

The speaker provides valuable information without expecting any payment.

By sharing their knowledge and experience, they aim to help others make their financial journey easier.

Watching live broker executions allows viewers to witness real money trading in action.

Analyzing Pound Dollar Currency Pair

The speaker briefly mentions analyzing the pound dollar currency pair and suggests taking a closer look at it.

Analyzing Pound Dollar Currency Pair

The speaker suggests examining the pound dollar currency pair.

They indicate that there are ongoing factors influencing its movement, such as interest rate changes by the Federal Reserve (FED).

Factors Affecting Dollar's Movement

The speaker explains why trying to predict the top in the dollar index is not advisable. They mention that the FED's plan to raise interest rates and potential geopolitical events can cause the dollar to continue its upward trend.

Factors Affecting Dollar's Movement

The FED plans to raise interest rates, indicating a potential for the dollar to keep rising.

Geopolitical events can lead to a parabolic increase in the value of the dollar.

Trying to predict the top in the dollar index is challenging and not recommended.

Predicting Pound's Movement Based on Dollar Analysis

The speaker discusses their analysis of the pound based on previous discussions about the dollar. They mention their belief that the pound will ultimately move lower against the dollar.

Predicting Pound's Movement

Based on previous discussions about the dollar, it is believed that the pound will move lower against it.

The speaker refers to specific candlestick patterns and levels as indicators for potential movements.

They highlight a fair value gap on a weekly chart, which may influence trading decisions.

Using Candlestick Patterns for Trading Decisions

The speaker explains how they use candlestick patterns, specifically focusing on tails and midpoints, as indicators for trading decisions. They discuss acceptable trading scenarios and emphasize understanding price action nuances.

Using Candlestick Patterns

Tails and midpoints of candlesticks are treated as gaps and provide valuable information for trading decisions.

Acceptable trading scenarios include trades that go slightly beyond certain levels or imbalances.

Understanding price action nuances helps gain confidence in making informed trading decisions.

Adapting Trading Strategies Based on Market Conditions

The speaker emphasizes adaptability in trading strategies based on market conditions. They discuss their willingness to let trades go and their confidence in finding new setups that work well.

Adapting Trading Strategies

The speaker is willing to let trades go if they align with market conditions.

They mention being involved in big moves that are not related to non-farm payroll events.

Confidence in finding new setups that work well comes from learning how to read price action.

Overcoming Doubts and Building Profitability

The speaker addresses the mindset of traders who doubt their ability to be profitable. They encourage honesty and self-belief, emphasizing the importance of continuous learning and avoiding gambling-like behavior.

Overcoming Doubts and Building Profitability

Traders should honestly assess their belief in their ability to be profitable.

Continuous learning, understanding price action nuances, and building confidence are essential for profitability.

Avoiding gambling-like behavior and seeking consistent profits rather than occasional lucky wins is crucial.

Challenges Faced by Traders

The speaker discusses challenges faced by traders who are unwilling to admit their doubts. They mention prop firm challenges and account challenges as examples of risky behaviors driven by a lack of self-belief.

Challenges Faced by Traders

Some traders are unwilling to admit their doubts about profitability.

Engaging in prop firm challenges or account challenges may stem from a lack of self-belief.

Building confidence through continuous learning can help overcome these challenges.

Fear of Missing Out on Unique Opportunities

The speaker discusses the fear of missing out on rare trading opportunities and acknowledges that this fear is common among traders, especially beginners. However, they emphasize the importance of looking beyond short-term moves and focusing on long-term strategies.

Fear of Missing Out

Traders often fear missing out on unique trading opportunities, believing that such opportunities are one-of-a-kind and will never happen again.

The speaker acknowledges that they also experienced this fear when they first started trading.

It is important to understand that while it may be unfortunate to miss a move, it is normal. Traders should look past short-term fluctuations and focus on long-term success.

Long-Term Strategies

The speaker emphasizes that their trading strategies are designed to work consistently over time, not just for specific days or weeks.

They mention that even if there is significant movement in the market on certain days (e.g., Thursday or Friday), it does not affect their overall strategy.

The speaker mentions the possibility of price gravitating towards certain levels in the future due to various factors such as geopolitical events during holiday seasons.

Market Analysis and Targets

The speaker provides an analysis of the daily chart for E-mini S&P and discusses their successful predictions so far. They also mention not trying to predict exact lows or highs but rather focus on overall market trends.

Daily Chart Analysis

The speaker shares a daily chart for E-mini S&P and highlights reaching a predicted low point as part of an inefficiency pattern.

They mention having a 100% success rate with their predictions going into this week across different markets.

The speaker clarifies that they do not aim to predict exact lows or highs but rather identify overall market trends.

Potential Market Movements

The speaker suggests that if everything remains the same, they expect the price to gravitate towards a specific low point.

They mention the possibility of significant market movements if there are kinetic events between countries during the holiday season.

The speaker notes that even though such moves may seem significant, they are within expectations considering potential geopolitical factors.

Unicorn Setups and Intraday Trading

The speaker discusses a unicorn setup on the 60-minute chart and highlights its repeatability. They also emphasize their preference for intraday trading due to current market risks.

Unicorn Setup

The speaker introduces a unicorn setup on the 60-minute chart, which is a highly profitable pattern that repeats frequently.

This particular setup involves aiming for a specific low point and successfully hitting it.

They suggest that traders can take advantage of such setups and then move on to other activities with their time.

Intraday Trading Approach

The speaker acknowledges comments about video length but explains their preference for shorter videos due to current market risks.

They mention being an intraday trader rather than holding positions overnight or for longer-term moves like in Forex trading.

Due to increased market risk since 2020, they find comfort in intraday trading and do not anticipate a change in strategy anytime soon.

Nasdaq Analysis and Resistance Levels

The speaker analyzes Nasdaq's resistance levels and discusses how non-farm payroll weeks can affect trading decisions. They emphasize not risking money unnecessarily in uncertain market conditions.

Nasdaq Resistance Levels

The speaker mentions Nasdaq being more reluctant to go lower compared to other markets analyzed previously.

They explain that getting through consolidations and resistance levels can be challenging, sometimes requiring patience as prices come back against traders.

Non-farm payroll weeks pose additional difficulties in trading decisions, especially when it is a non-fromp hero week.

Risk Management and Market Conditions

The speaker highlights the current market risks and explains their cautious approach to trading.

They mention not risking any money or hoping for profits unnecessarily, particularly during non-fromp hero weeks.

The speaker expresses liberation as an analyst by not expecting to be right about market movements in uncertain conditions.

Nasdaq Price Movement and Outlook

The speaker discusses the recent price movement of Nasdaq and shares their outlook for potential future movements based on resistance levels.

Recent Price Movement

The speaker mentions that Nasdaq traded up into a specific area as predicted but notes that they would have preferred to see it lose more ground.

They refer to annotations on the 60-minute chart but express the need to work around them due to personal reasons.

Outlook for Future Movements

The speaker suggests watching for a potential punch of a high level followed by a move down into another area after non-farm payroll Friday.

They emphasize that if the expected price movement does not occur, it does not affect them significantly due to the nature of non-fromp hero weeks.

Due to limitations in available content, some sections may be shorter than others.

Analysis of Candle High on Twitter

The speaker discusses the candle high on Twitter and notes that it was two ticks below the actual level. They mention that all the notes regarding this candle high can be found on a one-minute chart.

Candle High Analysis

The candle high on Twitter was observed to be two ticks below the actual level.

Detailed notes about this candle high can be found on a one-minute chart.

Trading Experience and Video Restrictions

The speaker shares their trading experience and mentions video restrictions on Twitter.

Trading Experience and Video Restrictions

The speaker traded based on their analysis, but the trade initially hit their stop loss before moving in their favor again.

Videos posted by the speaker on Twitter are being taken down due to music usage, even though proper credit is given to the authors.

Viewers are advised to download and save any execution videos with music as they may eventually be removed from Twitter.

Preservation of Trades and YouTube Channel

The speaker discusses preserving trades and mentions their YouTube channel.

Preservation of Trades and YouTube Channel

Although videos may be removed from Twitter, all trades are logged and available on the speaker's website or YouTube channel.

The speaker suggests visiting their website for access to preserved trades as they will remain available there.

Recap and Non-Farm Payroll

The speaker provides a recap of their analysis and mentions the upcoming non-farm payroll report.

Recap and Non-Farm Payroll

The speaker concludes their analysis by stating that it was perfect and advises caution due to the upcoming non-farm payroll report.

They mention the possibility of sharing insights on Twitter during the non-farm payroll release but do not encourage live trading based on those insights.