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43. livestream 25_4_2024
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43. livestream 25_4_2024

Understanding Market Movements and News Impact

Introduction and Context

  • The speaker mentions having a cold or flu, indicating potential interruptions during the session.
  • The speaker reflects on missing a live stream due to personal obligations, highlighting the challenges of balancing life and trading commitments.

Analyzing Recent Market Activity

  • Discussion centers around recent market events that are likely to influence today's price action, emphasizing the importance of understanding past movements.
  • Focus shifts to the London session for ES (E-mini S&P 500 futures), noting overextension in D (presumably referring to a market indicator).

Upcoming Economic News

  • Anticipation builds for high-impact USD news scheduled for release at 8:30 AM, which could significantly affect market dynamics.

Price Action Insights

  • The speaker analyzes price behavior relative to key levels, discussing how certain closures impact future price movements.
  • Emphasis is placed on waiting for specific setups before making trading decisions, particularly regarding SMT (Smart Money Technique).

Understanding Liquidity and Market Structure

  • Explanation of liquidity resting below non-symmetrical lows; this concept is crucial for anticipating market reactions post-news events.
  • The discussion highlights how price movement below certain lows indicates a shift in market structure.

Intermarket Analysis Techniques

  • The speaker discusses using intermarket analysis with indicators like the Euro to gauge potential outcomes based on liquidity graphs.

Sequential Smart Money Techniques (SMT)

  • A detailed explanation of sequential SMT is provided, focusing on its significance during news events and how it can indicate future price direction.

Trading Strategies Based on News Events

  • Two scenarios are outlined regarding price behavior before news events: one where prices close above highs leading into news versus one where no closure occurs.
  • Clarification that when prices push above highs without closure prior to news releases, it often leads to significant directional moves post-event.

Conclusion: Key Takeaways from Today's Session

  • Recap of critical points discussed about liquidity runs and their implications for traders during volatile periods influenced by economic announcements.
  • Final thoughts emphasize recognizing patterns in liquidity runs as essential for effective trading strategies.

Understanding Sequential SMT in Trading

Introduction to Sequential SMT

  • The speaker discusses the concept of sequential SMT (Smart Money Technique) within immediate lower time frame cycles, emphasizing its relevance during market highs.
  • A comparison is made between the London and New York trading sessions, highlighting how liquidity is induced through sequential SMT patterns observed during these times.

Importance of Highs in Trading

  • For a price to be considered in a premium state, it must exceed any high formed in the previous higher time frame cycle. This principle is illustrated with examples from specific days.
  • The speaker stresses that simply being above a previous day's high does not warrant an immediate sell; traders should wait for sequential SMT signals before acting.

Optimal Trading Times

  • The best trading opportunities are identified as occurring during the London and New York sessions, particularly between 9:00 AM and 10:30 AM.
  • Emphasis on observing Q3 (third quarter of the session), which has shown consistent results for high-probability trades.

Analyzing Price Movements

  • The discussion includes observations about price movements relative to established highs, noting instances of "failure swings" in S&P 500 prices.
  • Traders are advised to use a 50-minute time frame when entering trades at daily highs or near them while ensuring they are shorting only in premium conditions.

Daily Cycle Considerations

  • It’s crucial for traders to recognize that trading strategies should align with higher time frame cycles; this includes understanding price action from previous sessions.
  • The speaker reflects on missed opportunities due to personal circumstances but expresses intent to engage more actively in upcoming New York sessions.

Conclusion on Sequential SMT Application

  • Sequential SMT can occur across various time frames (daily, monthly), but the focus here is on intraday trades that can be held until day-end satisfaction.

Understanding Price Rejection and Market Dynamics

Price Gaps and Breakers

  • Discussion on how price rejection can occur due to daily or weekly opening gaps, indicating potential market break points.
  • Introduction of the concept of Smart Money Reversal (SMT), highlighting its significance when prices trade below established lows in conjunction with new day opening gaps.

Market Trends and Liquidity

  • Explanation of price trends, emphasizing that without active SMT signals, prices are likely to trend lower as liquidity is drawn from specific highs.
  • Mention of "kill zones" during trading sessions (New York vs. London), which are critical for understanding market movements.

Intermarket Analysis

  • Importance of intermarket analysis where different markets (e.g., Euro, Pound, S&P 500, NASDAQ) should move in sync; discrepancies indicate abnormal price action.
  • Observations during news events showing clean price action when all markets align correctly above certain highs.

Bullish vs. Bearish Price Action

  • Identification of bullish price action despite external manipulations caused by news events; previous highs and lows are scrutinized for potential reversals.
  • Reference to the NASDAQ's liquidity draw and its implications for future market behavior.

Weekly Cycles and News Impact

  • Analysis of weekly cycles focusing on high-impact news events that influence market direction; emphasis on intermarket sequential SMT between various indices.
  • Discussion about trading patterns relative to Wednesday's highs/lows and their impact on Thursday's trading strategies.

Time Frame Considerations

  • Insights into how higher time frame levels support trading decisions; importance of observing gaps in lower time frames for better entry points.

Market Structure and Sequential SMT Analysis

Understanding Market Structure Shifts

  • The discussion begins with the concept of market structure shifts, particularly in relation to premium pricing. It emphasizes that sequential smart money techniques (SMT) should not be applied in the middle of a range when opposing price action.
  • The speaker advises against taking long or short positions when prices are within a defined range. Instead, traders should wait for prices to break above the range before considering shorts, especially if there is a sequential SMT present.

Current Market Conditions

  • An analysis of the US dollar and euro reveals that while the euro remains bearish, the US dollar continues to show bullish tendencies. This aligns with expected market behavior based on recent price swings covering nearly 100% of the monthly timeframe.
  • Even without sequential SMT indicators on higher timeframes, lower timeframe cycles can still provide valuable insights. A two-stage sequential SMT could indicate potential trading opportunities.

Trading Strategies and Insights

  • The speaker reflects on their lengthy discussion about price action trading, noting its complexity and how it often isn't widely accepted as a straightforward approach.
  • They express their intention to engage during high-impact news events or when specific sequential SMT patterns emerge, highlighting these moments as critical for effective trading strategies.
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