Los bitcoiners venden antes de la caída de 2026
Key Events Influencing Bitcoin on October 17
Historical Context of October 17
- On October 17, gold reached a historic price peak of $4,390, coinciding with a local minimum in the Hang Seng Index, reflecting tensions in US-China negotiations.
- This date is significant for Bitcoin as it marked the end of its four-year bullish cycle and the anticipated beginning of a downturn until the next low expected in 2026.
The Four-Year Cycle Belief
- Followers of the "fourth cycle" theory believe Bitcoin operates in four-year cycles: three bullish years followed by one bearish year. Thus, after positive years (2023-2025), a decline is expected starting from October 17.
Market Movements and Indicators
Selling Trends Among Long-Term Holders
- Analysis shows nearly $3 billion worth of long-held Bitcoin is being sold daily by believers in the fourth cycle; this trend should be monitored as an important market indicator.
Geopolitical Factors Affecting Markets
Tariff Announcements Impact
- A week before October 17, President Trump announced a 100% tariff on China, leading to market instability and contributing to gold's price surge.
Positive News Following October 17
- Post-October 17 news has been favorable, suggesting de-escalation between US and China, resulting in stronger stock markets and more resilient Bitcoin prices while gold prices fell.
Economic Policies and Their Effects
Global Peace Plan Concept
- The proposed global peace plan emphasizes economic strength as a means to achieve stability—termed "Pax Circense," promoting capitalism through printed money.
Analyzing Past Bitcoin Cycles
Historical Data Insights
- Research indicates that past Bitcoin cycles may align with monetary policies rather than being mere coincidences; specifically analyzing USD and CNY issuance rates during specific periods reveals correlations with Bitcoin pricing trends.
Second Cycle Dynamics
Yuan Devaluation Influence
- The second cycle was less volatile but initiated by increased yuan supply due to US-China tensions. This led to significant interest in Bitcoin amidst currency devaluation.
Current Cycle Observations
Monetary Policy Restraint
- Both US and Chinese economies have shown caution regarding monetary expansion during this current cycle compared to previous ones where aggressive printing occurred.
Selling Pressure from Long-Term Holders
Increased Sales Activity
- The ongoing selling pressure from long-term holders could indicate an impending price drop if the fourth-cycle theory holds true; approximately $3 billion worth of sales occur daily.
Blockchain Analysis Insights
Changes in Selling Patterns
- Recent analysis shows that older Bitcoins are now being sold at an average age of around 100 days compared to just 26 days earlier this year—indicating that seasoned investors are liquidating their holdings.
Derivatives Market Dynamics
Options Trading Trends
- There’s a notable divergence between traditional bitcoin traders using Deribit (favoring puts for protection against declines), versus Wall Street traders using IBIT (favoring calls anticipating price increases).
Future Implications for Bitcoin Pricing
Potential Outcomes Based on Current Trends
If peace negotiations succeed leading to increased dollar and yuan circulation, it could drive up Bitcoin prices significantly. Conversely, failure or stagnant prices would validate skepticism among traditional investors about future cycles.