How Sci-Fi Informs Our Climate Future — and What to Do Next | Zainab Usman | TED
The Global Challenge of Climate Change and Geoeconomic Fragmentation
The Role of Science Fiction in Understanding Climate Challenges
- Science fiction authors highlight a common theme: humanity's inability to unite against existential threats, such as climate change. Cixin Liu's "The Three-Body Problem" illustrates this with a divided world facing an alien invasion, where fear and competition fracture global unity.
- In George Orwell's "1984," the perpetual conflict among superstates reflects ongoing geopolitical tensions that hinder collective action against global issues.
Current Economic Fragmentation and Its Implications
- The International Monetary Fund notes a fragmentation of the global economy into four blocs: the United States, China, the European Union, and others. This division complicates efforts to combat climate change effectively.
- Collective action is essential for addressing climate change; no nation can independently muster all necessary resources for effective mitigation or adaptation strategies.
Innovation in Low-Carbon Technologies
- A significant challenge lies in identifying where innovation in low-carbon technologies occurs. Effective deployment of clean technology solutions is crucial for slowing global warming.
- Innovation is currently concentrated in North America, Europe, and Asia. This exclusivity risks leaving poorer nations behind in accessing vital low-carbon technologies.
Consumer Welfare and Market Dynamics
- Commercializing climate technologies is critical for equitable global deployment. Mass production will enhance accessibility and affordability of clean energy solutions like electric vehicles and sustainable materials.
- Barriers to entry for firms from rival geoeconomic blocs could lead to monopolistic practices that inflate prices for consumers while stifling competition and innovation.
Strategic Minerals: A Resource Race
- The demand for strategic minerals (e.g., cobalt, lithium) essential for clean energy technologies is projected to surge significantly by 2040. These resources are often located in poorer countries or fragile ecosystems.
- Competing geoeconomic blocs may exacerbate conflicts over access to these scarce minerals, potentially leading to environmental degradation through unsustainable extraction practices.
Historical Context and Future Considerations
- Historical precedents illustrate the dangers of resource competition without regulations—such as the exploitation during the transatlantic slave trade—highlighting potential future conflicts over strategic minerals.
Alternative Futures: Rejecting Dystopia
The Need for Collective Action
- An alternative scenario to the dystopian futures depicted by Liu and Orwell is possible through prioritizing collective action on critical issues.
- To achieve this, action must be taken on three fronts: policymakers, business leaders, and scholars/activists.
Role of Policymakers
- Policymakers often implement radical protectionist policies driven by short-term political needs.
- It is essential for them to consider the long-term consequences of their decisions on people, economies, and societies beyond their political careers.
Business Leaders' Considerations
- Business leaders need to reflect on whether they prefer a future characterized by atomized and insular markets.
Scholars, Intellectuals, and Activists