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February 15, 2023 ES Session Review
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February 15, 2023 ES Session Review

Foreign Music Audio

The speaker mentions that the audio is foreign and requests confirmation regarding the audio quality.

Understanding Candlestick Charts

  • A one-minute chart of the e-mini SMP March delivery contract for 2023 is displayed.
  • Annotation of candlestick charts, focusing on closing and opening prices.
  • Highlighting the distinction between closing for a one-hour break and reopening at 6 o'clock with minimal change.
  • Explanation of new day and new week opening gaps in price points.
  • Analysis of price movements, emphasizing sensitivity to various candlestick features.

Trading Strategies and Market Analysis

The speaker discusses trading strategies based on market openings and news drivers.

Utilizing Time Windows for Trading

  • Identifying New Day Opening Gap as a significant trading level.
  • Advising on trading around 7:00 to 8:30 AM before news drivers impact the market.
  • Explaining how to navigate trades pre-market based on market structure and news events.

Analyzing Price Action

  • Demonstrating trade setups using Dollar Index, foreign currencies, and equities like ES.
  • Encouraging followers to observe price action related to New Day Opening Gap for insights.

Interpreting Market Dynamics

Insights into reading price action at a deeper level within market dynamics.

Reading Price Action Effectively

  • Emphasizing learning to read price action algorithmically for accurate market analysis.
  • Observing candlestick bodies, wicks, and market behavior around opening gaps for trading decisions.

Insider's Edge in Trading Index Futures

In this section, the speaker discusses the advantages of understanding specific aspects related to trading index futures, highlighting the unique insights and tools available to traders in this market.

Understanding Market Dynamics

  • Traders gain an "Insider's Edge" by delving into market dynamics beyond typical analysis methods.
  • Algorithmic repricing to fair value offers opportunities for participants based on trading levels.
  • The algorithm caters to a different class of traders than retail traders or social media influencers.

Specialized Trading Tools

  • Professionals in index futures rely on precise tools and reference points outside traditional analysis concepts.
  • Trading strategies focus on technical science and specific price data rather than conventional indicators like trend lines or moving averages.

Effective Timing and Strategy

This segment emphasizes the significance of timing in trading decisions, particularly regarding identifying setups before market openings and navigating choppy environments effectively.

Strategic Timing Insights

  • Recognizing price movements before market openings sets the stage for successful setups.
  • Acknowledging lethargic market conditions allows traders to identify opportunities but emphasizes caution in execution.

Importance of Patience

  • Emphasizes the need for patience in executing trades based on thorough analysis rather than impulsive actions.
  • Encourages new traders to focus on learning before actively engaging in live trading scenarios.

Enhancing Trade Probability

This part underscores the importance of distinguishing between high and low probability trade conditions, aiming for efficient trades with clear outcomes.

Trade Condition Evaluation

  • Distinguishing between high and low probability trade conditions aids in making informed trading decisions.
  • High probability trades offer immediate gratification with clear targets, contrasting with lower probability scenarios that may be more challenging.

Utilizing Market References

Exploring how referencing key market levels can guide trading decisions and enhance understanding of price movements within index futures markets.

Leveraging Market References

  • Analyzing previous week's opening gaps provides valuable insights into potential price movements.

Understanding Market Dynamics

In this section, the speaker delves into the intricacies of market movements and the importance of understanding market dynamics for successful trading.

Analyzing Market Behavior

  • The speaker emphasizes the significance of comprehending what drives markets, including factors that influence price fluctuations.
  • Learning to interpret market movements is crucial for making informed trading decisions.

Implementing Trading Strategies

  • It is recommended to replicate actions demonstrated on Trading View to enhance learning and avoid confusion.
  • Identifying optimal trading times, such as early morning hours, can aid in decision-making based on market conditions.

Prompted Trading Decisions

  • Traders were advised to look for sell-side opportunities in Futures and Forex markets while anticipating higher prices in the dollar.
  • The speaker shared biases and premises guiding trading decisions, encouraging traders to engage with the provided insights actively.

Effective Trade Execution Strategies

This segment focuses on trade execution strategies and the importance of precise decision-making in capturing market movements effectively.

Strategic Entry Points

  • Waiting for significant market movements away from key levels before entering trades can enhance precision and reduce risk.
  • Observing displacement from opening gaps and fair value gaps aids in identifying potential entry points with higher probability.

Understanding Order Blocks

  • Order blocks signify a change in delivery state rather than candle patterns, guiding traders towards strategic entry or exit points.
  • Emphasizing flexibility in trade execution to adapt to market variations ensures traders do not miss out on profitable opportunities due to rigid entry criteria.

Optimizing Entry and Exit Strategies

This part explores optimizing entry and exit strategies based on fair value gaps and order block dynamics for improved trading outcomes.

Leveraging Fair Value Gaps

  • Utilizing fair value gaps as entry points allows traders to capitalize on price movements towards these levels for strategic entries or exits.
  • Allowing room for price movement towards identified levels before executing trades enhances adaptability and increases chances of successful trade outcomes.

Efficiency in Trading Strategies

The speaker discusses the importance of efficiency in trading strategies, emphasizing the need to anticipate market movements and capitalize on opportunities during specific timeframes.

Efficiency and Market Movements

  • Emphasizes the significance of real-time analysis for efficient trading strategies.
  • Notes the market's consolidation before 8:30 and predicts a sharp drop post-news event.
  • Disregards volatility pre-8:30, focusing on liquidity-driven moves for optimal trading.
  • Stresses the importance of early exits based on analysis to avoid challenging trading conditions later.
  • Advocates for quick trades to maximize profits efficiently during active market hours.

Risk Management and Market Analysis

The speaker delves into risk management strategies and efficient market analysis techniques to enhance trading outcomes.

Risk Management Strategies

  • Highlights the necessity of efficient time utilization and risk assessment for successful trading.
  • Poses a choice between entering markets when active or crowded, advocating for timely executions.

Market Analysis Techniques

  • Demonstrates live executions as superior to market replay for practical learning experiences.
  • Advises caution during choppy markets, emphasizing observation over immediate trade actions.

Independent Trading Skills Development

The speaker emphasizes developing independent trading skills through observation, analysis, and chart interpretation.

Skill Development Approach

  • Encourages traders to observe setups without risking capital initially to refine their analytical skills.
  • Promotes self-reliance in identifying trade setups through consistent practice and observation.

Mentorship Philosophy

New Section

In this section, the speaker discusses the relationship between the movement of the dollar and its impact on various financial instruments like Forex foreign currencies and index futures.

Dollar Movement Impact

  • The dollar's rise indicates a "risk-off" scenario, leading to decreased freedom for Forex foreign currencies and index features to rally higher.
  • Conversely, a lower dollar signifies "risk-on," allowing Forex foreign currencies and index futures more freedom to rally higher.
  • Emphasizes the importance of observing specific market structures, such as confirmed higher highs and lows, rather than relying solely on Dow Theory or general market trends.
  • Advocates for inter-market analysis by referencing assets like the dollar Index to gauge sentiment shifts in the market.
  • Discusses how a divergence between lower lows in NASDAQ and Dow futures with a higher high in the dollar Index indicates a symmetrical market pattern.

Detailed Analysis of Trading Strategies

In this section, the speaker provides a detailed analysis of trading strategies, focusing on candlestick patterns and market movements.

Understanding Candlestick Patterns

  • The highest up-close candle before a drop down is crucial as it represents a bullish breaker. This pattern signifies classic support and resistance dynamics.
  • A bullish breaker involves identifying the swing high between two lows, with the most recent low being lower to clear sell stops before a market rally.

Market Logic and Precision

  • Analyzing the closing price of an up-close candle is essential for identifying a bullish breaker accurately. It's not just about the size but also about locating the highest closing price within the candle.
  • Market movements demonstrate precision and logic when bodies stay inside defined breakers, showcasing control over price action.

Algorithmic Market Behavior

  • The speaker challenges notions of individual influence on market behavior, suggesting that market actions are more likely driven by algorithms than collective human decisions.
  • Observing how markets interact with predefined levels and boundaries reinforces the idea that algorithmic processes govern trading outcomes rather than individual intentions.

Opening Cap Analysis

In this section, the speaker discusses the significance of analyzing the difference between the closing price at 5 PM and the opening price at 6 PM, emphasizing its importance in understanding market movements.

Importance of Price Difference

  • The one-tick difference between the closing and opening prices holds crucial information.
  • Observing market behavior around specific levels can provide insights into subsequent price movements.

Last Hour Trading Strategy

The speaker delves into a trading strategy focused on the last hour of trading, highlighting key aspects related to liquidity and algorithmic trading behaviors.

Last Hour Macro Strategy

  • Between 3:15 PM and 3:45 PM, there is a focus on liquidity and algorithmic spooling.
  • Algorithmic trading behavior is likened to casting a fishing rod to target specific liquidity areas for trading opportunities.

Understanding Buy Programs

This segment elucidates buy programs in trading, distinguishing them from market maker models and emphasizing algorithm-driven price movements.

Buy Program Dynamics

  • A buy program entails continuous upward price movement driven by algorithms.
  • Market direction is determined by algorithms rather than buying or selling pressure, leading to inevitable price shifts.

Fair Value Cut Analysis

Exploring fair value cuts in trading, focusing on balancing sell-side inefficiencies for accurate pricing adjustments within the market.

Fair Value Cut Insights

  • Understanding fair value cuts aids in efficient pricing adjustments based on supply-demand dynamics.
  • Repricing occurs as markets seek balance between high and low points for optimal pricing efficiency.

Order Block Concept Clarification

Clarifying order blocks in trading analysis to differentiate between individual candle movements and collective delivery patterns influencing market decisions.

Order Block Definition

  • Order blocks are defined by changes in delivery states rather than single candle movements.

New Section

In this section, the speaker discusses the dynamics of market movements and the importance of understanding liquidity and order flow in trading.

Understanding Market Dynamics

  • Traders capitalize on changes in delivery states to build positions strategically.
  • Emphasizes the significance of buy-side movements and how markets prey on inexperienced traders.
  • Markets gravitate towards orders and liquidity, disregarding traditional patterns or candlestick formations.
  • Market functions to achieve efficient price delivery, driven by order flow rather than contract volume awareness.
  • Introduces the concept of "priming" where actions influence trader behavior and market direction.

New Section

This segment delves into trader behaviors based on market cues and signals for strategic decision-making.

Trader Behavior Analysis

  • Traders react to specific market movements, anticipating future price actions based on past patterns.
  • Outlines a model for 2022 focusing on market shifts, timing windows for trading decisions, and identifying buying opportunities.
  • Highlights the importance of recognizing liquidity points in a bullish market for informed trading decisions.
  • Guides traders on early entry strategies aligned with changing market structures and liquidity targets.
  • Emphasizes profit-taking strategies before adjusting stop-loss levels to secure gains effectively.

New Section

This part explores how market rallies are not solely influenced by smart money but are inherent in market design.

Market Rallies Insight

  • Describes how rallies occur due to inherent coding rather than smart money pressure alone.
  • Assertively states that market movements are predetermined by design rather than external influences like smart money activities.
  • Discusses macro trends during final trading hours, emphasizing predictable patterns within bullish markets.

New Section

The speaker elaborates on time-sensitive trading strategies during specific market conditions for optimal outcomes.

Time-Sensitive Trading Strategies

  • Advises traders to focus on upward trends during consolidation phases for profitable trades.
  • Introduces macro concepts related to end-of-day price runs based on bullish or consolidating markets.

New Section

In this section, the speaker discusses the importance of understanding market dynamics and how traders can benefit from proper money management rather than relying solely on trading strategies.

Understanding Market Dynamics

  • Traders witness consistent results when they follow coded instructions in trading.
  • Individuals working in financial sectors may be indoctrinated to perceive prices a certain way, while the speaker offers insights into market operations.
  • The speaker emphasizes that daily proof of successful trading through understanding buying and selling pressure refutes claims of algorithmic control.
  • Traders are advised to focus on proper money management rather than patterns for profitability.
  • Money management plays a crucial role in trader profitability, often more so than high strike rates.

New Section

This segment delves into the significance of effective money management in trading success and highlights the importance of knowing when to trade and when to refrain from overtrading.

Importance of Money Management

  • Successful traders prioritize money management over high strike rates for profitability.
  • Emphasis is placed on cutting losses effectively and letting profitable trades run for sustained success.
  • Traders are encouraged to understand market conditions, avoid overtrading, and exercise control over their trading activities.

New Section

Here, the discussion centers around the mentorship process, focusing on developing a deep understanding of market dynamics rather than just following basic trading instructions.

Mentorship Process Insights

  • The mentorship aims at teaching traders when to engage with markets actively and when to step back strategically.
  • Understanding market dynamics leads to informed decision-making rather than relying solely on luck or chance.
  • Traders are guided on perceiving price movements accurately for optimal trading opportunities while avoiding unfavorable conditions.

New Section

This part emphasizes the importance of approaching trading with caution, respect for risks, and a mindset focused on learning from mistakes rather than fearing them.

Mindset Towards Trading

  • Traders are advised to approach trading cautiously like testing hot pans in a kitchen - assessing risks before engaging fully.
  • Fear should not dominate traders' decisions; instead, they should embrace learning opportunities even from failures.

Learning and Empowerment

In this segment, the speaker emphasizes empowering viewers to understand concepts thoroughly to reduce the need for continuous support or guidance.

Prioritizing Self-Sufficiency

  • The speaker aims for viewers to grasp content comprehensively, eliminating the necessity for recurring visits or assistance.
Playlists: 2023 ICT Mentorship
Video description

Government Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN Trading performance displayed herein is hypothetical. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance trading results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results. U.S. Government Required Disclaimer – Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. Trade at your own risk. The information provided here is of the nature of a general comment only and neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person’s investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. You should seek appropriate advice from your broker, or licensed investment advisor, before taking any action. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Simulated performance results contain inherent limitations. Unlike actual performance records the results may under or over compensate for such factors such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses to those shown. The risk of loss in trading can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. If you purchase or sell Equities, Futures, Currencies or Options you may sustain a total loss of the initial margin funds and any additional funds that you deposit with your broker to establish or maintain your position. If the market moves against your position, you may be called upon by your broker to deposit a substantial amount of additional margin funds, on short notice in order to maintain your position. If you do not provide the required funds within the prescribed time, your position may be liquidated at a loss, and you may be liable for any resulting deficit in your account. Under certain market conditions, you may find it difficult or impossible to liquidate a position. This can occur, for example, when the market makes a “limit move.” The placement of contingent orders by you, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders.