WESTERN SAHARA | Morocco's Final Victory?

Has France Just Cost Western Sahara Its Last Hope for Independence?

Overview of the Situation

• The future of Western Sahara has been disputed for over 50 years, with Morocco controlling the territory while the Sahrawi people seek independence.

• French President Emmanuel Macron's recent announcement suggests that self-rule within Morocco is the only viable solution, raising concerns about Western Sahara's independence prospects.

Historical Context

• The right to self-determination is a fundamental principle in international relations, allowing colonized peoples to choose their future.

• This right can be obstructed by governing powers through annexation or legal status changes, as seen in various territories including Western Sahara.

Decolonization and Claims

• Following Spain's colonial rule, Morocco seized control of Western Sahara in the mid-1970s despite UN recognition of its right to self-determination.

• Over time, more countries have accepted Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara, diminishing international support for Sahrawi independence.

Economic and Demographic Insights

• Western Sahara spans approximately 100,000 square miles and has an economy based on phosphate mining and fishing; it is largely arid with limited agricultural potential.

• The population includes around 600,000 individuals, with Moroccans now making up about two-thirds of residents due to settlement patterns.

Colonial History and International Response

• Spain claimed its African territories were integral parts of the state rather than colonies but faced pressure to withdraw from Western Sahara.

• In 1965, the UN General Assembly demanded Spain end its colonial rule and establish a referendum for self-determination.

Emergence of Liberation Movements

• By the early 1970s, native Sahrawis formed the Polisario Front advocating for independence amid increasing pressure from Morocco and Mauritania.

• Spain agreed to hold a vote in 1975; however, as independence seemed likely, Morocco and Mauritania sought control through legal claims at the International Court of Justice.

Court Ruling and Aftermath

• The International Court ruled there were no territorial ties affecting Sahrawi rights but was rejected by Morocco and Mauritania shortly after.

• Following this ruling in October 1975, Moroccan troops entered Western Sahara leading to Spain’s hasty withdrawal amidst conflict with Polisario forces.

Division of Territory

Western Sahara: A Complex Struggle for Sovereignty

Historical Context and Territorial Control

• Morocco constructed a 2,700 km sand wall to maintain control over approximately 80% of Western Sahara amid the Polisario insurgency.

• As tens of thousands of Sahrawis fled to Algeria, the Moroccan government encouraged its citizens to settle in Western Sahara, despite international non-recognition of its claims.

International Recognition and Peace Efforts

• In 1984, the Organization of African Unity admitted Western Sahara as a member, leading Morocco to withdraw in protest.

• The UN and African Union facilitated a peace deal in 1988 aimed at organizing a referendum for self-determination; however, progress stalled due to disagreements on voter eligibility.

Shifts in Diplomatic Stance

• In 2006, Morocco proposed autonomy for Western Sahara instead of independence, which initially faced resistance but gained traction over time.

• By rejoining the African Union in 2017, Morocco sought broader support for its autonomy proposals amidst declining recognition of Sahrawi independence by other nations.

Recent Developments and Controversies

• A significant trade deal between the EU and Morocco included Western Sahara despite legal challenges regarding sovereignty claims.

• In December 2020, the Trump Administration recognized Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara in exchange for recognizing Israel—a move criticized by many observers.

Changing Perspectives Among Major Powers

• The Biden Administration did not reverse this recognition; however, no other major Western countries followed suit with similar acknowledgments.

• France shifted its stance under Macron's leadership to view Moroccan autonomy proposals as the only viable solution for resolving the conflict.

Implications for Self-determination

• France's new position suggests it will advocate for Moroccan sovereignty while claiming that self-rule under this framework does not negate Sahrawi rights.

• Algeria condemned France's decision and withdrew its ambassador from Paris; meanwhile, Morocco celebrated this diplomatic shift as validation of its claims.

Future Prospects

• The implications of these developments raise concerns about meaningful self-determination for Sahrawis as international attention wanes compared to other global conflicts.

Creeping International Acceptance of Annexation

France's Role in the Sahrawi Conflict

• The ownership of Western Sahara is gradually gaining international recognition, indicating a slow but steady acceptance of Morocco's annexation.

• France's decision appears to have extinguished any remaining hopes for the Sahrawi people to achieve a free and fair vote regarding their future.