The End of the Beginning

In this section, the speaker talks about how we are finishing the access story and starting to begin the use story. He also discusses how we have two new fundamental layers to build things on.

The Next 20 Years

• Most people are online but most of the money is not.

• The next 20 years will be about addressing this issue, tackling harder markets, and changing those markets a lot more than some of the markets addressed in the past.

• Two new fundamental layers to build things on: machine learning and building things on cryptocurrencies.

Market Sizes

In this section, the speaker talks about market sizes and how they relate to ecommerce.

Ecommerce vs Retail Spending

• US ecommerce is now about $450 billion a year.

• However, if you zoom out and look at retail spending, ecommerce is still only about 10%.

• Bars and restaurants make up a significant portion of retail spending as well.

Transforming Industries

• Gas stations are going to transform or disappear over the next 20 years.

• Over a trillion dollars a year is spent on cars, parts, maintenance - all of which will go away or change over time.

Advertising and Marketing Opportunities

In this section, the speaker talks about advertising and marketing opportunities in various industries.

Advertising vs Marketing

• Internet is now the largest single category in global advertising.

• Much like advertising, marketing spends money to reach customers. Examples include Direct Mail and telemarketing.

• Retail rent, shipping, and service are other pools of capital that have yet to be fully addressed.

Global Opportunities

• Sales and marketing in total is now close to a trillion dollars globally.

• Most of the balance has gone to China.

Global E-commerce Trends

In this section, the speaker discusses the growth of e-commerce globally and how it is shifting away from being a US-centric story.

The Rise of China in E-commerce

• China has more e-commerce than the US and Western Europe combined.

• The US lags behind other leading markets such as South Korea and the UK in terms of e-commerce penetration.

• There are many other billion-dollar companies being created outside of the USA.

Addressing Global Retail Opportunities

• The potential opportunity for global retail is around 40-50 trillion dollars.

• Companies need to think about different ways to address this opportunity, as we move towards businesses that require high penetration and lots of capital.

Shifting Business Models

• We have moved from doing things that work with low penetration and little capital to building complete companies that require high penetration and lots of capital.

• Different types of businesses are emerging, such as Doordash, which delivers hot meals within half an hour.

Future Opportunities

• There are still many areas where we have only scratched the surface in terms of addressing consumer spending, such as housing, transport, and health.

• Businesses are moving towards a different character and way of addressing these problems.

The Future of Retail: Groceries and E-commerce

In this section, the speaker discusses how retailers are expanding their reach beyond big cities and small shops. He also talks about how groceries are changing the e-commerce model and why it's worth building a whole new company to address this market.

The Changing Retail Landscape

• Excitement around Walmart's expansion

• Difficulty scaling retailers outside big cities and small shops

• Amazon successfully exposed retailers to e-commerce

• Same-day delivery, free delivery becoming more important

The Challenge of Groceries in E-commerce

• Groceries break the e-commerce model because they require different logistics, delivery, and e-commerce platforms.

• Groceries need almost a whole other company to handle them.

• Online grocery market is much bigger than e-commerce.

• China is ahead of the US in online grocery revenue per capita.

• Other large developed markets are also ahead of the US.

Changing Purchasing Journeys

• As retail models change, so does the grocery business.

• Different purchasing journeys lead to changes in what people buy.

• Categories change as money moves from advertising to marketing.

Building Blocks for Consumer Internet Business

• Social media

• New economic models like rental or subscription

• Online brands with physical stores as substitutes for Instagram ads

• Machine learning for better recommendations and suggestions

Shifting Retail Events into Advertising

• Many consumer retail events will shift into advertising.

• A lot of advertising will shift into retail events.

New Possibilities with Machine Learning

• Fashion online was once considered an insane idea but now works well.

• Warby Parker selling glasses online

• Cosmetics makeup that you haven't tried

The Future of Advertising

In this section, the speaker discusses what advertising will look like in the next 20 years and how it relates to global GDP.

Global GDP and Cars

• Tesla is now outselling other premium car manufacturers in the USA.

• There is a total opportunity for cars, software, and electric vehicles.

• As we move towards electric and autonomy, there will be a different mix of components and suppliers inside the car.

• Software changes what a car is. As we move towards autonomy, cars will look different and do different things.

TV and Entertainment

• Watching people play games is now bigger than Netflix or HBO.

• eSports is now an equivalent size to any of the local US sports.

• Tech industry spent 20 years trying to get into the living room but did it with mobile phones instead of TVs.

• Internet consumption on mobile devices is going up while TV viewing is going down.

FinTech

• There are trillion dollar pools of capital that can be addressed by software and technology in finance.

• A large portion of the global population is unbanked, which can be addressed with software and internet access.

Mobile Penetration

• Something interesting is happening in China regarding mobile payment value.

Machine Learning and the Future of Healthcare

In this section, the speaker discusses how machine learning is changing the healthcare industry and how it can be used to address different problems.

The Market for Drug Discovery

• Machine learning is a new way of bringing understanding to information in drug discovery, which is a $75 billion market.

• Social media and wearables are changing clinical trials by providing new ways of getting people with certain conditions and monitoring those trials.

Addressing Harder Problems

• We have gone through all of the easy problems in healthcare and are now addressing harder markets.

• Two new fundamental layers that are swinging away from centralization are crypto and machine learning.

Successive Levels of Meaning

• Machine learning provides more levels of meaning and understanding, allowing us to know what a thing is at successive levels.

• This allows for better targeting in advertising as well as more accurate diagnoses in healthcare.

The Value of Not Being Sick

In this section, the speaker discusses the value of not being sick and how machine learning can help prevent illness.

The Cost of Being Sick vs. Not Being Sick

• The cost of being sick is over $7 trillion globally.

• It's important to consider the value of not being sick, which includes preventing illness before it happens.

Successive Levels of Addressability

• Machine learning allows for successive levels of addressability in healthcare by predicting potential health issues before they occur.

• This leads to better preventative care and ultimately lower costs for individuals and society as a whole.

The Importance of Crypto and Machine Learning

In this section, the speaker discusses the importance of crypto and machine learning. He draws a parallel between the early days of the internet and the current state of crypto.

Crypto as a Distributed Decentralized Network

• Crypto is a distributed decentralized network that allows anyone to build anything without needing permission from a central authority.

• Applications built on this network are not yet fully understood, but they have native trust, value exchange, payment mechanisms, and meaning built into them.

• This decentralized network has led to new ways of finding meaning in intent and understanding what something might mean to an individual.

The End of the Beginning

• Whenever there is a fundamental change in technology, it shakes things up and brings new companies out of it.

• The speaker concludes by stating that we are at "the end of the beginning" and that we can expect many more changes in the future.