2022 ICT Mentorship Episode 22
Introduction
The mentorship program is introduced, and the speaker discusses the e-mini S&P daily chart for June 2022.
Bearish Order Block
The speaker discusses a bearish order block that was previously identified and how it relates to seasonal tendencies.
- The market is expected to draw down into a relative equal low.
- The decline in equities markets is due to risk off behavior.
- Lower prices are expected.
Trading View Tips
The speaker provides tips for using the Trading View platform and invites viewers to share their own tips.
- A comment will be posted with Trading View tips.
- Live sessions will showcase how to train yourself to look for certain things on intraday charts.
- No trade recommendations will be given during live streams.
- Recordings of live streams will be available on YouTube.
Liquidity Drawdown
The speaker discusses liquidity drawdown and how it relates to picking the right order block.
- Picking the right order block is easy once you understand what the market is likely to do.
- Understanding where the market is going and why it should get there is key.
Live Streams
The speaker outlines what viewers can expect from upcoming live streams.
- Live streams will take place during New York session starting around 8 am EST.
- Live streams will not include trade recommendations or chat room participation.
Disclaimer
The speaker provides a disclaimer regarding his commentaries and opinions over live charts.
- Do not take commentaries and opinions as trade advice.
- Live streams are for educational purposes only.
Introduction and Schedule
The speaker introduces himself and explains his schedule for the day. He also mentions that he will not be looking at the chat during the session.
Schedule
- The session will begin around 8 o'clock in the morning.
- The speaker is willing to go up to 10:30 or 11 o'clock.
- Sessions will be hand-picked selected days in advance, and he will post them on the community tab on his YouTube channel.
Draw on Liquidity
The speaker discusses liquidity and how it affects trading. He shows a segment on TradingView where you can choose your bullseye or use a magnet icon to aim for liquidity.
Draw on Liquidity
- The speaker outlines an area as the draw on liquidity.
- Price is drawn down to that level where there is liquidity.
- They tapped into that liquidity today.
Market Analysis
The speaker analyzes market movements using charts from TradingView. He explains how equities opening up affects trading.
Hourly Chart Analysis
- Yesterday, there was a run that kept pumping higher but fell short of this high.
- There was a decline, then a normal pause, then gapped it down, then rallied it back up.
- Between two candles' low and opening lies an imbalance coupled with an actual gap.
15-Minute Chart Analysis
- At 9:30 AM, equities opened up and created an imbalance here.
- It took a high out and broke below low displacement energetically
- You could be a seller here if you are a swing trader or short-term trader aiming for old relative equal law which is that blue line here.
Premium and Discount
The speaker explains the concept of premium and discount in trading.
Premium and Discount
- Any time the market trades above an old high, that is a short-term premium because it's going into liquidity.
- Any time the market trades below an old low, that's a discount.
Opportunities in Market Structure
In this section, the speaker discusses how understanding the narrative within market structure can help frame an idea. The idea must be in alignment with the present narrative, which is why it's important to study the economic calendar events and volatility offered for that particular trading session or day.
Understanding Market Structure
- Opportunity lies in understanding the narrative within market structure.
- Idea must be in alignment with present narrative.
- Study economic calendar events and volatility offered for a particular trading session or day.
Power Three
- Power three consists of open rally up or manipulation creating high, movement lower, and distribution of shorts below an area where there would be stops.
- Traders look at relative equal lows on daily chart as a breakout point.
- Flood of market orders to sell at market when traders see relative equal lows on daily chart.
Forecasting Market Movement
- Algorithmic trading allows for forecasting certain things that should repeat if we understand what the algorithm is doing.
- Blend principles and concepts with market structure to forecast lower prices.
Analyzing Charts
Five-Minute Chart Analysis
- Smart money enters near high above opening price and gets out at important low.
- Analyze five-minute chart to identify relative equal highs.
One-Minute Chart Analysis
- Swing low identified after market runs above relative equal highs.
Setting Stop Losses
In this section, the speaker discusses the importance of setting stop losses and how to determine where to place them.
Placing Stop Losses
- The stop loss should be placed above the candle that creates the fair value gap.
- Conservative stops should be used to avoid being knocked out of a trade prematurely.
- The sell side below the lows is a good area to place a stop loss after it hits the fairway.
Risk Management
In this section, the speaker emphasizes the importance of risk management and avoiding overextending oneself in trades.
Managing Risk
- Overextending oneself in trades is similar to gambling and should be avoided.
- When practicing on a demo account, traders should keep risk management in mind.
Afternoon Session Trading
In this section, the speaker discusses trading during afternoon sessions and how to identify potential entry points.
Afternoon Session Trading
- After 1:30 PM is a good time to look for potential retracements higher or lower depending on market conditions.
- Short positions can be taken at areas with relative equal highs or fair value gaps aiming for relative equal lows on daily charts.
Reading Tape Examples
In this section, the speaker provides an example of reading tape during live trading sessions.
Live Trading Example
- The speaker executed trades on NASDAQ based on his analysis of market structure and fair value gaps.
- Market structure shifts can indicate potential entry points for short positions.
- Fair value gaps can also provide entry points but require deep pockets or micro accounts for proper risk management.
Understanding Market Structure
In this section, the speaker discusses market structure and how to identify shifts in it.
Identifying Shifts in Market Structure
- When there is a shift in market structure, expect the price to move up into a fair value gap before breaking lower.
- Trying to aim for the highest candle when selling or lowest when buying can cause you to miss moves.
- Missing moves due to being greedy can be a heartbreaker if the price moves significantly.
Reading Market Structure
In this section, the speaker explains how to read market structure and identify turning points.
Identifying Turning Points
- Relative equal lows with a high being taken indicate a break lower.
- A retracement back up into an up closed candle indicates a short-term high inside of a bearish market structure.
- Look for lower prices below the retracement point where cell stops are resting.
Executing Trades Based on Order Blocks
In this section, the speaker discusses executing trades based on order blocks and calibrating them using top-down analysis.
Executing Trades Based on Order Blocks
- Enter at the midpoint of an order block when the price retreats back up into it.
- Hold onto your position as long as possible until it drops back down.
- Don't focus solely on order blocks; consider overall market structure.
The Algorithm Will Remain Constant
In this section, the speaker talks about how people may parrot what he teaches but not actually implement it. He also emphasizes that the algorithm will remain constant and that there is no reason to worry about its effectiveness.
Parroting vs. Implementation
- People may parrot what the speaker teaches but not actually implement it.
- Majority of people are lazy and won't be rule-based, disciplined, or responsible.
The Algorithm Will Remain Constant
- Saturation of people learning from the speaker's teachings won't change the algorithm.
- Liquidity in markets will always exist, ensuring that these elements will remain in markets as long as they are trading.
- The speaker has been teaching this for a long time privately and wouldn't teach it if he believed it would fail. There is no reason to worry about its effectiveness.
Trading Example on a One-Minute Chart
In this section, the speaker provides an example of his trading strategy on a one-minute chart.
Trading Strategy Example
- Market rallies up above order block but bulk of volume and bodies of candles are inside order block. Market breaks and shows displacement here with relative equal lows breaking down to fair value before going back up into fair value area again.
- Speaker enters short at bottom of bearish shoulder block after market retrades back up into bearish order block following initial entry at largest portion of setup with maximum position size first (three contracts), selling two contracts at logical precise areas before adding last contract at another logical precise area later on in trade.
Building Large Positions
In this section, the speaker discusses how he builds large positions and establishes his biggest position first. He also talks about not worrying about insignificant drawdowns.
Establishing a Position
- The speaker starts with his biggest position and goes smaller until he can't do any smaller.
- He doesn't add one more contract at a time.
- Once the position is established, he submits to the idea of it going down to the level that he drew out.
Exiting a Position
- The exit point is just above the level because there might be shallow runs that don't give him his fill.
- The speaker bought all six back at 13285 even.
Reading the Tape and Market Maker Cell Model
In this section, the speaker talks about reading the tape and using market maker cell model for selling in an area where distribution would take place.
Reading the Tape
- The speaker emphasizes that reading the tape is essential for understanding market movements.
Market Maker Cell Model
- The speaker uses market maker cell model for selling in an area where distribution would take place.
Close Proximity Entries and Drawdown Management
In this section, the speaker discusses close proximity entries, drawdown management, and how he uses things that are not known to others.
Close Proximity Entries
- A lot of trades in TD Ameritrade account use close proximity entries.
- Some trades have fair value gaps while others are close proximity entries after filling up.
Drawdown Management
- Speaker proves to some students how they can manage drawdown if they sit through it without getting stopped out.
- There are conversations with these students which viewers are not privy to.
Using Things Not Known to Others
- The speaker uses things that are not known to others.
- He is doing something else besides what is shown in the statements.
Volatility and Whipsaw
In this section, the speaker talks about volatility and whipsaw movements in the market.
Volatility
- At 9:30, there is expected volatility in the market.
- The speaker mentions a back and forth movement before the expected volatility.
Whipsaw
- There was a little bit of whipsaw movement.
Being a Real Person
In this section, the speaker talks about his personal life and how it affects his trading.
Balancing Personal Life and Trading
- The speaker is in charge of homeschooling his children while running his business.
- He loves his life outside of trading and has other interests.
- The markets are not everything in his life.
Intermarket Relationships and Correlation
In this section, the speaker discusses intermarket relationships and correlation between markets.
Comparing Markets
- The S&P 500 stocks composite and Nasdaq 100 stocks composite generally move together in tandem.
- If one market shows a willingness to correct but the other doesn't, it's a stop run that confirms weakness in the non-correcting market.
- Proper use of correlation can give an x-ray view of real accumulation and distribution.
Fibonacci Calibration
In this section, the speaker demonstrates how to calibrate Fibonacci levels on a chart.
Calibrating Fibonacci Levels
- This section is for individuals who want to calibrate their Fibonacci levels or add annotations to their charts.
- To add annotations, anchor to the high you want, drag it over, hold down shift button to make it level.
- To calibrate Fibonacci levels, use price notes or trend lines.
Moose Projections
The speaker discusses projections for the moose and how to see where it will likely go.
Equilibrium Projections
- Use the 0.5 level to discount the premium.
- Provides a good idea of where your low should form.
- Shows standard deviations.
Calibrating Daily Range
The speaker explains how to calibrate daily range and get an idea of where the low should form.
Daily Range Calibration
- Provides a good idea of where your low should form.
- Uses standard deviations.
Optimal Trade Entry Levels
The speaker shows optimal trade entry levels and how to pull up fill.
Optimal Trade Entry Levels
- Shows optimal trade entry levels.
- Trades up into it, hitting fair value.
- Uses lowest open or close in swings for optimal trade entries.
Projections and Optimal Trade Entry Levels
The speaker discusses projections again and shows optimal trade entry levels in more detail.
Projections and Optimal Trade Entry Levels
- Shows optimal trade entry levels with bodies lowest open or close in swings.
- Trades up into it, hitting fair value.
- Projects one standard deviation down, two standard deviations down, and one half standard deviation down.
Fibonacci Trading Strategy
The speaker explains his Fibonacci trading strategy using volume data.
Fibonacci Trading Strategy
- Uses volume data for Fibonacci trading strategy.
- Uses lowest opening on candle inside swing for plotting optimal trade entries.
- Uses highest open or close inside swing for plotting optimal trade entries.
- Explains how to use Fibonacci trading strategy to get to the heart of the matter.
Projections and Taking Profits
The speaker discusses projections again and explains how to take profits.
Projections and Taking Profits
- Projects one standard deviation down.
- Takes profits below the low.
- Uses standard deviations.
Conclusion
The speaker concludes the video by thanking viewers for their patience and promising to touch base on Tuesday of next week.
Conclusion
- Thanks viewers for their patience.
- Promises to touch base on Tuesday of next week.