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ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 05 - Qualifying Trade Conditions With 10 Year Yields
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ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 05 - Qualifying Trade Conditions With 10 Year Yields

Introduction to Qualifying Trade Conditions with 10-Year Yields

In this lesson, we will explore how to qualify trade conditions using the 10-year yields. We will focus on identifying seasonal tendencies and correlating them with the dollar index.

Qualifying Trade Conditions with 10-Year Yields

  • The first step in qualifying trade conditions is to analyze the swings in relationship to the dollar index. Look for lower lows in the swings of the 10-year yields.
  • Correlation between the dollar index and 10-year yields can be observed through higher highs and lower lows.
  • Confirmation of a trade idea can be found when there is a crack in correlation, such as higher highs in the dollar index but not lower lows in the 10-year yields.
  • The interest rate market declining at a certain time can further confirm a trade idea, as it affects the futures price of the 10-year note.
  • Consolidation periods in both the yield and dollar index can also contribute to qualifying trade conditions.

Analyzing Seasonal Tendencies - June 2016

In this section, we will examine seasonal tendencies specifically for June 2016. We will compare market structures between the dollar index and 10-year notes to identify qualifying conditions.

Analyzing Seasonal Tendencies - June 2016

  • Market structures should be compared between the dollar index and 10-year notes during seasonal tendencies.
  • A crack in correlation occurs when there are higher highs in the dollar index but not lower lows in the 10-year notes, indicating qualifying conditions for a trade idea.

Lower High Formation - March Contract 2017

This section focuses on analyzing lower high formations using the March contract of the 10-year treasury note in 2017. We will examine the correlation with the dollar index and its implications for trade conditions.

Lower High Formation - March Contract 2017

  • A lower high formation is observed in the March contract of the 10-year treasury note, indicating a potential trade condition.
  • The absence of a higher high in the 10-year note when there is a lower low in the dollar index breaks market symmetry and suggests an underlying trend or manipulation.
  • The decline in open interest during November supports the idea of short covering by smart money, leading to an increase in the dollar index.
  • The trending move on the dollar index is supported by a larger range for the 10-year note to go lower, as indicated by increasing interest rate yields.

Blending Ideas with Quarterly Shift Concepts

In this section, we learn about blending ideas with quarterly shift concepts. The time horizon for trade setups and trends is discussed.

Blending Ideas with Quarterly Shift Concepts

  • Blending seasonal tendencies and qualifying divergences between the dollar index and 10-year notes can be enhanced by incorporating quarterly shift concepts.
  • The time horizon for trade setups is generally three months, but trades may last shorter or longer depending on market conditions.
  • Long-term trends should be considered, but it's important not to try to pick tops or bottoms.

Conclusion and Trade Considerations

This section concludes the lesson by emphasizing that long-term trends can reverse. It also highlights that seeking yield influences currency markets and provides insights into trade considerations.

Conclusion and Trade Considerations

  • Long-term trends can reverse, so it's crucial to consider this when trading.
  • Seeking yield influences currency markets, making them tend to rally when interest rates increase.
  • Blending seasonal tendencies, qualifying conditions, and quarterly shift concepts can help identify potential trade setups.

The transcript is already in English.

Using Higher Time Frame Charts for High Probability Trades

In this section, the speaker discusses the benefits of using higher time frame charts to increase the probability of trades and filter out market noise. These ideas can be applied to align with higher time frame trends or order flow.

Benefits of Viewing Higher Time Frame Charts

  • By viewing higher time frame charts, traders can increase the probability of their trades.
  • It helps filter out market noise and provides a clearer picture of the overall trend.
  • Even if not trading in a long-term position capacity, these ideas can be used to get in sync with higher time frame trends or order flow.

By utilizing these strategies, traders can improve their trading decisions and align themselves with stronger market trends.

Playlists: 2017 ICT Private Mentorship Core Content Month 05
Video description

2017 Premium ICT Mentorship Core Content Video Lectures Audio and visuals are exactly as they were distributed in January 2017. CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN Trading performance displayed herein is hypothetical. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance trading results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results. U.S. Government Required Disclaimer – Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. Trade at your own risk. The information provided here is of the nature of a general comment only and neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person’s investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. You should seek appropriate advice from your broker, or licensed investment advisor, before taking any action. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Simulated performance results contain inherent limitations. Unlike actual performance records the results may under or over compensate for such factors such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses to those shown. The risk of loss in trading can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. If you purchase or sell Equities, Futures, Currencies or Options you may sustain a total loss of the initial margin funds and any additional funds that you deposit with your broker to establish or maintain your position. If the market moves against your position, you may be called upon by your broker to deposit a substantial amount of additional margin funds, on short notice in order to maintain your position. If you do not provide the required funds within the prescribed time, your position may be liquidated at a loss, and you may be liable for any resulting deficit in your account. Under certain market conditions, you may find it difficult or impossible to liquidate a position. This can occur, for example, when the market makes a “limit move.” The placement of contingent orders by you, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders.