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ICT Mentorship 2023 - Market Review & Commentary
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ICT Mentorship 2023 - Market Review & Commentary

Weekly Review of Dollar Index, Euro, and NASDAQ

The speaker introduces the weekly review of the dollar index, euro, and NASDAQ. They mention that viewers should watch a previous market review video from July 9th, 2023 for better understanding.

Dollar Index Weekly Chart

  • The speaker discusses a fair value gap on the weekly chart.
  • They mention that price movement below the gap was expected.
  • There was a slight miss in reaching the high of the gap.
  • The fair value gap is identified between two specific weeks.

Prognostication and Market Performance

  • Apart from discussing the fair value gap, there are no further predictions or insights shared.

Importance of Watching Previous Video

The speaker emphasizes the importance of watching a previous video before continuing with this one to fully benefit from the information shared.

Daily Chart Analysis

The speaker analyzes the daily chart and refers to their commentary in a previous video from July 9th, 2023.

Breaker Level Analysis

  • The breaker level is highlighted as an important area to watch.
  • Price closed at this level for a particular week.
  • Price traded up into the breaker level and then moved downwards.

Return to Fair Value Gap

The speaker discusses how price returned to the fair value gap after trading at the breaker level.

Sell Side Expectations

  • Anticipation of price moving towards sell side draw after returning to fair value gap is mentioned.
  • Clarification is given regarding comments made by viewers about support and resistance levels.

Private Comment Section

The speaker addresses viewer comments being kept private and clarifies their teaching approach.

Private Comment Review

  • Viewer comments are kept private to prevent negative reactions from those who may not appreciate positive feedback.
  • The speaker mentions that they teach how the market draws liquidity, rather than focusing on support and resistance levels.

Inefficiencies and Gaps

The speaker explains their approach to using inefficiencies and gaps in trading.

Dynamic Support and Resistance

  • The speaker uses gaps as areas of interest that may not be filled immediately.
  • Old gap highs or lows can act as reference points for future price movement.
  • Trading is not based on ambiguous supply and demand zones but specific price levels.

Targeting Inefficiencies

The speaker discusses targeting inefficiencies for entry or as a target level.

Entry and Target Levels

  • Three specific price levels are considered for entry or targeting inefficiencies.
  • Gradients are used to determine continuation possibilities.
  • Emphasis is placed on anticipating market behavior rather than blindly buying at old lows.

Conclusion

The speaker concludes by reiterating their teaching approach and addressing misconceptions about their methods.

New Section

The speaker discusses the concept of support and resistance in trading, specifically focusing on a shaded area that was anticipated to act as support. They also mention the importance of understanding different time frames and identifying key levels for optimal trade entry.

Anticipated Support and Resistance

  • The speaker mentions that they anticipated a specific area to act as support, which is shaded in orange .
  • They clarify that it's not exactly orange but a hue close to it .
  • The market did not reach the expected level and come back down as predicted .

Understanding Time Frames

  • The speaker refers to a 15-minute time frame and points out two consecutive down closed candles indicating a bullish order block .
  • They explain how the market finds support at certain levels and rallies up .
  • The speaker emphasizes the importance of learning from multiple videos rather than relying on summarized content .

Weekly Volume Imbalance

  • The speaker highlights the significance of weekly volume imbalance in anticipating market movements .
  • They suggest overlaying Fibonacci levels on the weekly volume imbalance for further analysis .

New Section

The speaker discusses seasonal tendencies in E-mini S&P trading, particularly focusing on May and June. They highlight potential buying opportunities during these periods.

Seasonal Tendencies in E-mini S&P Trading

  • May is typically characterized by selling, while June tends to have a strong low point every year .
  • However, this year's market internals did not align with the expected seasonal tendency .
  • The third week of May and June is identified as a potential buying opportunity for index futures .

The transcript provided does not specify the language, so the summary is written in English.

New Section

The speaker discusses anticipating market movements and identifying institutional order entry points.

Focusing on Inefficiency

  • The speaker emphasizes the importance of trading within inefficiencies rather than relying on support and resistance levels.
  • Institutional order entry points are identified as areas where the market trades inside inefficiencies.
  • Weekly volume imbalances are highlighted as key areas to watch for institutional order entry points.

Market Pullbacks and Displacements

  • The speaker explains that it is normal to see small price actions, such as Mohawks, within a larger market rally.
  • When the market rallies into a weekly volume imbalance, it is likely to pull back before making a sharp displacement lower.
  • Short-term levels are taken out during these pullbacks, providing opportunities for traders.

Model 22 and Breaker Trades

  • The speaker refers to "Model 22" as a trading strategy taught on their YouTube channel.
  • Breaker trades involve the market hitting higher highs or lower lows before aggressively running in the opposite direction.
  • These breaker trades can be identified using specific candlestick patterns.

NASDAQ Analysis

  • The weekly chart of NASDAQ shows a fair value gap followed by a move higher and subsequent pullback.
  • Fibonacci retracement levels are used to measure potential pullback ranges towards the end of the week.

TGIF Model and Range Projection

  • TGIF stands for "Thank God It's Friday," which is a day-specific model capitalizing on reversals of the weekly range.
  • A range projection technique using Fibonacci extensions is demonstrated to estimate potential high or low levels for the week.

Applying ICT Breakers

  • Advanced ICT Breakers concept is applied to identify bullish or bearish breakers based on price action.
  • Fibonacci retracement levels are used to measure the range of the breaker and project potential high or low levels.

Retail Support and Resistance Fallacy

  • The speaker challenges the idea of retail support and resistance by highlighting that price repelling from a level does not necessarily make it significant.
  • The effectiveness of ICT breakers is demonstrated by comparing different market highs.

Timestamps have been associated with relevant bullet points.

Short-Term Entries

The speaker discusses short-term entries in trading.

Short-term entry strategy

  • The algorithm used by the speaker refers back to the high and low of a candle to determine support and resistance levels.
  • A small movement outside of the candle, known as a "mohawk," is considered normal and acceptable.
  • The market's willingness to respect these levels indicates the algorithm's inclination towards seeking sell-side liquidity and running on sell stops.

Understanding Market Movements

The speaker explains how market movements can be analyzed using candlestick patterns.

Analyzing candlestick patterns

  • Candlestick bodies provide information about market trends, while wicks indicate potential reversals or inefficiencies.
  • By observing the relationship between bodies and wicks, one can infer the narrative of the market and identify algorithmic behavior.
  • The speaker mentions taking advantage of inefficiencies in the market by trading based on these observations.

Wick Consequent Encroachment

The speaker discusses how wick encroachments can impact trading decisions.

Wick encroachment analysis

  • It is uncertain whether the market will respect wick encroachments consistently.
  • Candles with significant bodies and long wicks suggest algorithmic behavior aimed at seeking sell-side liquidity.
  • The speaker mentions going short based on an inversion pattern and taking advantage of remaining inefficiencies in the market.

Interpreting Market Closures

The speaker emphasizes the importance of analyzing market closures for trading decisions.

Significance of market closures

  • Observing where markets close relative to certain indicators, such as the 20 percent level, provides valuable insights not found in traditional trading books.
  • Different traders may interpret the same information differently, leading to the creation of new trading strategies and approaches.
  • The speaker highlights the uniqueness of their teachings and encourages viewers to appreciate the knowledge they are being exposed to.

Learning from a Mentor

The speaker discusses the benefits of learning from a mentor and emphasizes the importance of thorough study.

Learning from a mentor

  • Learning from someone who has deep knowledge in a specific field allows for comprehensive understanding and guidance.
  • A good mentor takes time to cover all aspects thoroughly, including minor details that may otherwise be overlooked.
  • The speaker acknowledges that learning complex topics like trading requires extensive study, case studies, and patience.

This summary covers key points from the provided transcript.

New Section

In this section, the speaker discusses the learning curve and personal experience in picking up new skills. They emphasize the importance of finding the right mentor and caution against learning from individuals who lack expertise.

Learning Curve and Personal Experience

  • The learning curve varies for each individual, with some picking up new skills faster than others.
  • Personal experience plays a significant role in the learning process.
  • It is important to submit to one's unique duration of learning.
  • Not all mentors will resonate with everyone, and it is natural to seek guidance from different sources.
  • The speaker promises that their teaching style is distinct and cannot be replicated by others.

New Section

In this section, the speaker uses an analogy of getting a driver's license to explain how mentors may not have a deep understanding of what they teach. Rushing into learning without proper preparation can lead to negative consequences.

Lack of Understanding from Mentors

  • Having a driver's license does not necessarily mean understanding every aspect of a car's design or mechanics.
  • Similarly, mentors may be familiar with certain concepts but lack true expertise in teaching them.
  • Rushing into learning without adequate preparation can result in negative outcomes.
  • Hindsight analysis and borrowing viewpoints from experienced mentors can give students a voice and lead to successful evaluations.

New Section

In this section, the speaker emphasizes that certain parameters can lead to explosive price runs in the market. They discuss seasonal tendencies and how they can be used as roadmaps for trading decisions.

Seasonal Tendencies and Explosive Runs

  • Certain parameters being met can create opportunities for explosive price runs in the market.
  • Seasonal tendencies act as roadmaps for traders' decision-making.
  • The speaker mentions a specific seasonal tendency in May and June that can lead to significant market movements.
  • Understanding seasonal tendencies and their potential failure can be instrumental in identifying opportunities for explosive price runs.

New Section

In this section, the speaker discusses the concept of seasonal tendencies and how they can indicate potential market movements. They mention learning from Larry Williams' trading course and express their personal opinion on another trader's work.

Seasonal Tendencies and Market Movements

  • The speaker learned about seasonal tendencies from Larry Williams' trading course.
  • Seasonal tendencies refer to patterns observed during specific times of the year in the market.
  • The failure of a winning seasonal tendency can often lead to an explosive price run in the opposite direction.
  • The speaker expresses their personal opinion on Jake Bernstein's work, stating that they did not find value in it.

New Section

In this section, the speaker explains how failing seasonal tendencies can provide additional momentum for price movements. They discuss using these insights as swing traders and highlight the similarity between different timeframes.

Failing Seasonal Tendencies and Price Momentum

  • Failing seasonal tendencies can provide additional fuel for price movements in the opposite direction.
  • This phenomenon is particularly relevant in stock index futures.
  • Swing traders can utilize these insights to make informed trading decisions across various timeframes.
  • The speaker emphasizes that understanding different timeframes is crucial but ultimately similar in terms of analysis techniques.

Timestamps are provided at regular intervals throughout the transcript, allowing for easy navigation while studying or reviewing the content.

Resistance to Change

The speaker discusses the concept of resistance to change and its implications.

Understanding Resistance to Change

  • Resistance to change refers to the reluctance or opposition that individuals or groups may have towards adopting new ideas, processes, or behaviors.
  • It is a natural response that can arise due to various factors such as fear of the unknown, loss of control, or perceived negative consequences.
  • Resistance to change can manifest in different ways, including passive resistance (ignoring or avoiding change), active resistance (openly opposing change), or compliance without commitment.

Factors Influencing Resistance

  • Several factors can contribute to resistance to change:
  • Lack of awareness: People may resist change if they do not understand the reasons behind it or the potential benefits it offers.
  • Fear of uncertainty: The unknown aspects associated with change can create anxiety and resistance.
  • Loss of control: Change often involves giving up familiar routines and practices, leading to a sense of loss of control over one's work or environment.
  • Perceived negative consequences: If individuals believe that the proposed changes will have adverse effects on their job security, status, or well-being, they are more likely to resist.

Overcoming Resistance

  • Effective strategies for overcoming resistance to change include:
  • Communication and involvement: Engaging stakeholders early in the process and providing clear explanations about the need for change can help address concerns and build support.
  • Empathy and support: Recognizing and addressing people's emotions related to change can foster a more positive attitude towards it. Providing resources and training also helps ease transition difficulties.
  • Creating a shared vision: Developing a compelling vision for the future state after implementing changes helps align individuals' goals with organizational objectives.
  • Celebrating small wins: Acknowledging progress along the way boosts morale and reinforces positive attitudes towards ongoing change efforts.

Conclusion

Resistance to change is a common phenomenon that can hinder organizational progress. Understanding the factors contributing to resistance and implementing effective strategies can help mitigate its negative impact and facilitate successful change initiatives.

The language used in this summary is English, as per the transcript provided.

Video description

Government Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN Trading performance displayed herein is hypothetical. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance trading results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results. U.S. Government Required Disclaimer – Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. Trade at your own risk. The information provided here is of the nature of a general comment only and neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person’s investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. You should seek appropriate advice from your broker, or licensed investment advisor, before taking any action. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Simulated performance results contain inherent limitations. Unlike actual performance records the results may under or over compensate for such factors such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses to those shown. The risk of loss in trading can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. If you purchase or sell Equities, Futures, Currencies or Options you may sustain a total loss of the initial margin funds and any additional funds that you deposit with your broker to establish or maintain your position. If the market moves against your position, you may be called upon by your broker to deposit a substantial amount of additional margin funds, on short notice in order to maintain your position. If you do not provide the required funds within the prescribed time, your position may be liquidated at a loss, and you may be liable for any resulting deficit in your account. Under certain market conditions, you may find it difficult or impossible to liquidate a position. This can occur, for example, when the market makes a “limit move.” The placement of contingent orders by you, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders.