Dave Snowden - How leaders change culture through small actions

Introduction

Dave Snowden introduces himself and his background, including his work on counterterrorism and citizen engagement.

Background

• Dave Snowden is a comedian and pragmatic cynic.

• He grew up in North Wales but spent holidays in Cardiff to experience the South Welsh attitude.

• He left IBM research 12 years ago after working on counterterrorism.

• Currently working on FARC Colombian government peace negotiation and citizen engagement.

Research Center

• The Bangor University center focuses on theory-based practice.

• The center aims to create new models of governance using small countries.

• They use small stepping stones to manage the present and create a new direction of travel.

Theory-Based Practice

• The center is looking at theory-informed practice as a new concept for many people.

• Case-based approach dominates reason, but they are trying to change that.

Industrial Best Practice

Dave Snowden discusses industrial best practices, six sigma, lean, and how they are taught by consultants.

Industrial Best Practice

• Industrial best practice is taught by consultants when they can no longer sell it to industry because it doesn't work.

• Six Sigma is a cult with high priests who get different colored belts indicating their cult status.

• If given a black belt, they no longer have to do any real work because their job is to encode post-cult discipline on those who do.

• Lean is not associated with Six Sigma; anyone who links them does not understand Lean.

Understanding Service Relationships

In this section, the speaker discusses how taking cases without understanding the theory can lead to negative consequences. He talks about the confusion of correlation with causation and how it is not a causal linkage derived in practice from limited academic observation of a limited number of companies will not produce scalable practice in the public sector.

Fads in American Manufacturing Industry

• Taking cases without understanding the theory can lead to negative consequences.

• Fads come out of American manufacturing industry every two or three years based on case-based research on the same American companies.

• This produces contradictory theories and confusion between correlation and causation.

• Limited academic observation of a limited number of companies will not produce scalable practice in the public sector.

Real-Time Citizen Engagement

In this section, the speaker talks about real-time citizen engagement and how it is important to understand their day-to-day narratives. He also mentions distributed ethnography as a way to transfer power of interpretation to citizens, patients, and employees.

Understanding Citizens' Concerns

• Real-time citizen engagement is important to understand their day-to-day narratives.

• Children are used as ethnographers into their own community to gather day-to-day concerns of those communities and make those visible to actual decision-makers.

• Anthropologists call ideation patterns underlying articulated fears and beliefs that need to be understood.

• Transferring power of interpretation to citizens, patients, and employees through distributed ethnography is key.

Evidence-Based Policy

In this section, the speaker discusses evidence-based policy and how too much of it is mostly policy-determined evidence. He also talks about the need for evidence that persuades politicians to change and the importance of hard-baking advocacy into evidence.

Evidence-Based Policy

• Too much evidence-based policy is mostly policy-determined evidence.

• Evidence needs to be valid and such that when people see it, they know what to do without secondary explanation or argument.

• Hard-baking advocacy into evidence is important.

• Evidence needs to persuade politicians to change.

Complexity Theory vs Systems Thinking

In this section, the speaker discusses complexity theory and systems thinking. He talks about how in complexity theory, you describe the present and see what you can change and define a direction of travel rather than defining an ideal future state as in systems thinking.

Complexity Theory vs Systems Thinking

• In complexity theory, you describe the present and see what you can change and define a direction of travel.

• Defining an ideal future state as in systems thinking may cause you to miss things that have high utility.

• Starting on a journey allows you to discover things you didn't know you could discover.

Radiologists and Weak Signal Detection

In this section, the speaker discusses how radiologists detect anomalies in x-rays and the limitations of their cognitive processes.

Radiologist's Cognitive Processes

• A group of highly trained people, not amateurs, are given a batch of x-rays to look for anomalies.

• Radiologists may miss an anomaly even if they physically scan it because they only see what they expect to see.

• Radiologists have 30,000 to 40,000 patterns stored in their brain that help them make decisions quickly based on partial data scans. They use a first-fit pattern match instead of the best-fit pattern match.

Weak Signal Detection

• The issue with weak signal detection is how to see things that do not fit the pattern of expectation.

• The most you can scan of what's in front of you is about 5%, which goes up to 10% for Chinese people due to different cognitive evolutionary pathways based on symbolic against non-symbolic languages.

• Our consciousness is a distributed function of the brain and body that privileges our most recent experiences and does a first-fit pattern match based on partial data scans.

Evolutionary Decision Making

In this section, the speaker discusses how humans evolved to make quick decisions based on partial data scans and how this undermines traditional evidence-based approaches.

Evolutionary Decision Making

• Humans evolved to make decisions very quickly based on partial data scans and privileged most recent experiences.

• Vets have two years more training than doctors and don't rely on language. They use animal-use-only descriptions from Boots Chemist.

• Cognitive activation is a method of changing how people see the world from a different perspective. It needs to be systematically introduced because it's not a voluntary choice.

• Ritual is one of the most effective methods of changing cognitive activation.

Traditional Evidence-Based Approaches

• People listen to 5% of what you say and match it against their most recent experience of initiatives, which undermines traditional evidence-based approaches.

• The way we introduce programs itself has to change because we've got to deal with reality.

Biological vs Sociological Problems

In this section, the speaker discusses how biological problems are inherited through DNA or RNA activation, and how poverty and unemployment can lead to health issues such as obesity.

Inherited Biological Problems

• Biological problems are inherited through DNA or RNA activation.

• Lamarque was right in that culture is not the cause of all problems; rather, it's biology.

• Poverty and unemployment can lead to health issues such as obesity.

Exaptation

The speaker explains exaptation, which is a nonlinear repurposing of traits for different functions. They also discuss how art plays a critical role in human intelligence and resilience.

Exaptation

• Exaptation is a nonlinear repurposing of traits for different functions.

• Dinosaur feathers evolved linearly for warmth and sexual display until they were used for flight.

• The human cerebellum evolved to manipulate muscles in fingers but now manages grammar in language.

• Microwave ovens were created by an engineer who noticed a chocolate bar melting while maintaining a radar machine's magneto.

Art and Intelligence

• Art plays a critical role in human intelligence and resilience by allowing us to shift things to a higher level of abstraction, making novel connections possible.

• Cave painting came before language in human evolution, showing the importance of art.

Ordered Systems vs Chaotic Systems vs Complex Systems

The speaker defines ordered systems, chaotic systems, and complex systems based on constraints. They also discuss the importance of using consistent language when defining concepts.

Ordered Systems

• Ordered systems have high levels of constraint where all behavior is predictable (e.g., granite rocks).

• Human beings are unique in creating ordered systems, such as counting surgical instruments before and after an operation.

Chaotic Systems

• No bullet points with timestamps available.

Complex Systems

• Complex systems have moderate levels of constraint where behavior is not entirely predictable (e.g., weather patterns).

• The language used to define concepts should be consistent with the language used for intervention.

Understanding Context Before Imitating Practice

In this section, the speaker talks about the importance of understanding context before replicating practices. He shares his experience working for IBM and how bureaucracy can be taken to excess.

The Value and Excess of Order

• It is important to understand context before replicating practices.

• Bureaucracy can be taken to excess, as seen in the speaker's experience working for IBM.

• IBM banned coffee and alcohol in their software development house, which was an essential part of their work process.

• Innocent questions can sometimes lead to exceptions being made in a bureaucratic system.

Fighting Bureaucracy with Irony and Sarcasm

• Irony and sarcasm are effective tools when dealing with bureaucracy.

• The speaker's team scientifically proved that astrology is more accurate than Myers-Briggs in predicting team behavior, which did not sit well with IBM HR.

• Over-constraining a system leads people to find ways to work around it.

Finding Workarounds

• General manager approval was required after events at IBM, leading people to find workarounds such as over-tipping London taxi drivers and filling out blank receipts for food bought for staff.

• Over-constraining a system leads people to find ways to work around it.

Crisis and Chaos

In this section, the speaker talks about how no connectivity can be a crisis but it can also be powerful. He gives an example of human sensor networks built for the Welsh government. The speaker then shares his experience speaking at an American intelligence conference in Tampa, Florida.

Human Sensor Networks

• No connectivity can be a crisis or powerful.

• Example: Human sensor networks built for Welsh government.

American Intelligence Conference

• Speaker spoke at an American intelligence conference in Tampa, Florida.

• Snowden was announced as a keynote speaker but didn't specify which Snowden.

• 2,000 American intelligence agents were present.

• Presented situation on Syria to 2,000 American agents.

Open Carry on Campus

In this section, the speaker talks about open carry on campus and how it affects governance. He mentions receiving a handbook from the University of Texas on how not to provoke students.

Open Carry on Campus

• University of Texas issued booklets on how not to provoke students due to open carry on campus.

• Speaker is nervous because he has never not provoked a student in his life.

Visualization and Chaos Theory

In this section, the speaker talks about chaos theory and visualization. He explains that chaos has value and discusses complex adaptive systems.

Visualization and Chaos Theory

• Presented back distribution map of all different opinions within one minute using metadata.

• Multiple agents are used to show dominant views vs minority views.

• Chaos has value in complex adaptive systems.

Enabling Constraints vs Governing Constraints

In this section, the speaker talks about enabling constraints vs governing constraints. He explains that creating enabling constraints allows locally valid solutions to emerge within governance frameworks.

Enabling Constraints vs Governing Constraints

• Enabling constraints allow locally valid solutions to emerge within governance frameworks.

• Constraints don't have to be governing constraints, they can be enabling.

• Illustration on the difference in rules and heuristics.

Heuristics

In this section, the speaker talks about heuristics and how they are used in warfare.

Heuristics

• Napoleon famously told his commanders to march to the sound of the guns.

• American marines have a variation on that if the battlefield plan breaks down capture the high ground stay in touch keep moving.

• Personal experience of carrying his daughter up to Comrie castle.

Rule Breaking and Heuristics

In this section, the speaker talks about his experience with rule breaking and how it can be used to control uncertainty. He also emphasizes the importance of having a rule about when rules can be broken.

Breaking Rules

• The speaker shares a story about breaking rules by climbing over a castle wall to pick up a rabbit, which resulted in spending an uncomfortable hour-and-a-half in a police station.

• The speaker explains that he knew he was breaking the rules but was never safer because he understood that rule-breaking wasn't habitual.

• The speaker argues that in government and health, we are making rule-breaking habitual by forcing people to do things they don't want to do, leading to accidents.

Heuristics

• The speaker explains that we use heuristics to control uncertainty and fall back on basic heuristics when paying attention is required.

• The speaker emphasizes the importance of having a rule about when rules can be broken as it makes it safer.

• The speaker talks about extracting heuristics from buyer behavior in FMCG environments where things change too quickly for rules.

Complexity and Patient Journey

In this section, the speaker discusses complexity and how different systems require different ways of operating. He also talks about using patient journey narratives as empirical measures of hospital impact.

Complexity

• The speaker explains that depending on the system you're in, you can operate differently.

• Using an example of managing a party for kids, the speaker highlights the importance of fire hoses for cleaning up after a party and crowd control during the party itself.

Patient Journey

• The speaker talks about empowering patients to keep continuous narrative records of their cycle through the hospital to have an empirical measure of the impact of the hospital on their perception of health.

• The speaker explains that they can ask questions in real-time using distributed human sensor networks with real-time feedback.

• The speaker shares an example where 50% of patient stories were breaches of hospital hygiene by medical staff, which was detected by patients because for them, notices were novel.

The Ordered Approach vs. The Complex Systems Approach

This section discusses two approaches to party planning: the ordered approach and the complex systems approach.

The Ordered Approach

• Property is theft, so why worry about it?

• Agree on learning objectives for the party in advance.

• Print out motivational posters with pictures of eagles and distribute Disney cards with the party value statement printed on them.

• Produce a project plan for the party with clear milestones throughout.

• Start the party with a motivational DVD and use PowerPoint to demonstrate personal commitment to party objectives.

• Use pocket money and allowances as incentives for achieving milestone targets.

• Conduct an after-action review and update best practice database on party management.

The Complex Systems Approach

• Draw a line in the sand as a boundary.

• Introduce catalytic probes such as football videos, barbecues, computer games, etc. to see if they form attractors (beneficial patterns).

• Manage emergence of beneficial coherence within attractors within boundaries to allow locally valid solutions to merge.

• Different things will work at different times in different places; need similar governance structure but ability to respond differently based on positive or negative patterns.

• Achieve systemic change faster by changing people's interactions rather than changing individuals.

Importance of Systemic Change

The speaker emphasizes the importance of systemic change and how focusing only on individual change can lead to demotivation.

Key Points

• Every corpse on Everest was an extremely motivated person, but without systems to support them, it doesn't matter what individuals think.

• Focusing only on individual change programs without building supporting systems is dangerous.

• Intrinsic motivation is necessary in government, but extrinsic goals are often set instead, leading to rapid demotivation.

• Measurement systems need to match the way things work for effective change.

Problems with Research and Questionnaires

The speaker discusses problems with research and questionnaires and how they can lead to closed options and inaccurate results.

Key Points

• Allowing people to evaluate locks down options too fast.

• Experts evaluating stories based on their knowledge leads to narrow interventions.

• Evaluative questions cannot be trusted for accurate results.

• 360 feedback can be gamed, so a website was created in IBM where people could volunteer as lower quartile responders.

• Hypothesis-based questions like "Does your manager consult you regularly?" are difficult to answer accurately.

Ethnography and Positive Description Labels

The speaker talks about ethnography and positive description labels as ways of gaining accurate insights into experiences.

Key Points

• Field ethnography with girls who have been subject to genetic mutilation and rape in Africa showed multiple intervention points when describing day-to-day experiences.

• Presenting the same data from field ethnography to experts led to narrow interventions due to evaluation closing options down.

• Positive description labels should be used when nominating people who record observations.

• Hypothesis-based questions like "Does your manager consult you regularly?" are difficult to answer accurately.

On Hypothesis-Based Questions

In this section, the speaker discusses a different approach to workforce management using on hypothesis-based questions.

Approach

• The speaker suggests going to 5% of the workforce every month and asking them what story they would tell their best friend if they were off the job in their workplace.

• The question is non-judgmental and is called an on hypothesis-based question.

• After hearing the story, employees are asked where they would place it among six triangles that represent positive qualities in cognitive terms: altruistic, assertive, analytical.

Theory of Change

• If executives or companies see that their balance towards analytical behavior is higher than altruistic behavior, then they can use observations to create more observations like these and fewer negative ones.

• This leads to a massive radical new theory of change.

Vector Targets vs Outcome Targets

• Vector targets measure direction and speed of travel and therefore can sustain novel practice outcome based targets cannot.

• Real-time feedback mechanisms are needed for an evidence base.

Trusting Honesty in Questionnaires

In this section, the speaker talks about how people do not answer surveys honestly.

Examples

• The speaker shares his experience filling out questionnaires from PhD students and academics about IBM. He filled them out diligently for two months until he couldn't stand it anymore. He got his children to fill them randomly in return for pocket money for five years.

• People do not answer surveys honestly because it's too easy to bias responses.

Bias in Focus Groups

In this section, the speaker discusses how focus groups are biased within 15 minutes by the facilitator.

Bias in Focus Groups

• Focus groups are biased within 15 minutes by the facilitator.

• This is a hard science fact, and you can't just have a focus group outside the facilitated privilege some responses over others.

• Real-time feedback mechanisms are needed for an evidence base.

Motivational Demotivated Stuff

In this section, the speaker talks about a project he did with the Royal Australian Air Force on motivational demotivated stuff.

Project

• The prompting question was non-judgmental: "You're a grandparent. Your grandchild says they want to join the airforce. What will you tell them about your experience?"

• Spouses of officers often give better stories than actual officers themselves.

• They pulled in three thousand stories in a week and found an absolute correlation between poor leadership willingness to leave the Air Force and recent implementation of Lean Six Sigma.

• Real-time feedback mechanisms are needed for an evidence base.

Real-time Feedback and Narrative

In this section, the speaker discusses the importance of real-time feedback and narrative in decision-making. He shares a story about how he used statistical data to uncover a problem in the military and how he was able to use narrative to explain it.

Real-time Feedback

• Real-time feedback is important for decision-making.

• Statistical data can be used to uncover problems.

• Narrative can be used to explain problems.

Importance of Narrative

• Narrative is key to creating a sustainable society.

• Understanding multiple cultures is important.

• Communities with a strong narrative matter.

• It's not for you to decide what narrative people should have.

Understanding Sensemaking

In this section, the speaker discusses how understanding sensemaking can help organizations make better decisions.

Benefits of Understanding Sensemaking

• Understanding sensemaking can provide insight into how decisions are made within an organization.

• Analyzing decision-making processes can help identify areas where an organization is strong or weak ethically.

• Real-time capture in the field allows for mapping different patterns and identifying small distinctions that are key to making effective decisions.

Mapping Different Patterns

In this section, the speaker discusses how mapping different patterns can help organizations make more informed decisions based on local needs.

Community Focus

• Different communities have different focus areas, and it's important to understand these differences when implementing initiatives.

• Real-time capture in the field allows for interventions at a local basis to create a big picture rather than average programs which punish everybody.

Micro Anomalies and Probability Distribution

In this section, the speaker discusses how micro anomalies and probability distribution can be used to identify major anomalies in manufacturing and healthcare settings.

Micro Anomalies

• Micro anomalies are signals of major anomalies that may not be immediately apparent but should not be ignored.

• Real workers continuously observing micro anomalies can provide valuable insights into potential issues.

Probability Distribution

• Probability distribution can be used to visualize data from real-time observations in manufacturing and healthcare settings.

• Visualization should tell you what to do - job completion or following rules - as they are mutually incompatible states.

Sensemaking in Hospitals

In this section, the speaker discusses how sensemaking can be used to identify issues in hospital settings.

Fractal Engagement

• Fractal engagement allows for real-time feedback loops and interventions at a local basis.

• In emergency situations, some people may prioritize hitting targets over following rules, which can lead to negative outcomes.

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Background and Personal Experience

In this section, the speaker talks about his personal experience with civil disobedience and encounters with police. He also discusses his involvement in the peace and reconciliation process in Northern Ireland.

Encounter with Police and Civil Disobedience

• At 14 years old, the speaker was arrested for civil disobedience.

• The speaker led a youth camp to take part in a civil rights march in Derry, which resulted in his first encounter with police who did not care about his cause.

• The speaker almost joined the IRA due to unfair treatment of Catholics by the police and army.

Peace and Reconciliation Process

• The speaker worked on the peace and reconciliation process post-university.

• Changing how people view their past is necessary for creating a new future.

• Conflict resolution involves identifying natural constraints of a system and finding alternative possibilities that have low energy cost of replication.

Anticipatory Triggering for Behavioral Change

In this section, the speaker discusses anticipatory triggering as a key concept for behavioral change. He explains how it can be applied to social work and healthcare.

Anticipatory Triggering

• Anticipatory triggering involves shifting from predicting the future to triggering human beings to heightened awareness when change may occur.

• Social workers spend 70% of their time filling out reports; continuous real-time observations can provide data needed for anticipatory triggering.

• Similar techniques can be used in healthcare to trigger alerts before problems become visible through conventional scanning.

Programs at the Center

In this section, the speaker discusses programs at the center related to art and spirituality, sport, and health and well-being.

Art and Spirituality

• Spirituality is important for physical health from a biological perspective.

• The manifestation of spirituality varies.

Sport

• Continuous capture from coaches can provide data for research on sports projects.

Health and Well-being

• Citizens live their lives as engaged experiences with their communities.

• Research needs should not be compartmentalized.

Transdisciplinary Capability

In this section, the speaker emphasizes the importance of transdisciplinary capability in creating real-world solutions.

Importance of Transdisciplinary Capability

• Reinventing the wheel constantly is not productive.

• The University of Bhangra offers an MSC program that combines science and humanities courses with a real-world business case to create generalists who can apply their knowledge to practical situations.

• Pseudoscience is a danger when people become too specialized and fall for pseudo-scientific movements like spiral dynamics and neuro linguistic programming.

Benign Narcissism

In this section, the speaker discusses how benign narcissism can be detrimental to leadership and problem-solving.

Focus on Individual Experts

• Over-focusing on individual gurus or experts leads to a narcissistic process of leadership that does not engage with the people they work for.

• We need to understand and engage with communities to move forward instead of focusing solely on ourselves.

Fractal Engagement with Reality

• All paths up are different, but all paths down are the same.

• Fractality is self-similarity, which allows locally contextual solutions to emerge within a governance framework.

• Banga aims to lead the world in fractal engagement by bringing international research into Wales to work with small countries.