ПРУЖИНА сжимается. Технический взгляд на рынок акций и валюту.

Current Situation on the Stock Market

Overview of Market Conditions

• The discussion begins with a brief overview of the current situation in the stock market, focusing on recent news and negotiations.

• The main point of contention remains the withdrawal from Donbas, which is deemed illogical to negotiate immediately. Upcoming meetings are anticipated to influence market movements.

Technical Analysis Insights

• Emphasis is placed on commodity markets and specific stocks like GMK and Rusal as focal points for investment strategies.

• The speaker notes that there have been no significant changes in their investment portfolio, maintaining a 50% allocation in replacement bonds.

Investment Strategies and Market Predictions

Current Investment Position

• The speaker reflects on past investments, noting that while the market has grown since last year, fundamental discounts are currently absent.

• Future predictions suggest a target around 3,400 but caution against speculative trading due to risk-reward ratios favoring bonds over stocks.

Currency Market Dynamics

• Increased pressure on currency markets is noted for January due to high sales from exporters amid tax periods; however, buying activity is insufficient to counteract this pressure.

Precious Metals Market Analysis

Trends in Gold and Silver

• A strong upward trend in gold prices continues, with previous forecasts about silver's growth being validated.

• Caution is advised regarding potential corrections in precious metals due to heightened risks associated with current euphoria in the market.

Speculative Trading Considerations

• For traders looking for entry points, it’s suggested to wait for clear signals post-correction rather than jumping into trades prematurely.

Trading Strategies Moving Forward

Entry Points and Risk Management

• The importance of identifying breakout points from consolidation phases is emphasized as a strategy for entering trades effectively.

Monitoring Market Movements

• Continuous monitoring of indices like MVB is recommended as key indicators for potential trading opportunities.

Market Analysis and Trading Strategies

Current Market Sentiment

• The speaker anticipates potential market fluctuations leading up to a meeting, suggesting caution due to possible volatility early in the week.

• Emphasizes the need for a solid entry point with a short stop-loss, indicating that Monday morning may present opportunities if market strength is observed.

Technical Analysis Insights

• Notes that there is still time before the meeting, hinting at potential trading opportunities forming mid-week based on market developments.

• Discusses Sberbank's performance, mentioning previous significant selling pressure but noting reduced sales since January; suggests monitoring for ideal entry points near recent highs.

Market Trends and Predictions

• Predicts continued sideways movement near market highs, advising to reassess strategies by mid-week.

• Highlights the importance of observing buying strength in Sberbank to potentially trade around upper channel boundaries.

Stock Performance Observations

• Points out that positive drivers are needed for renewed growth; mentions Tenkov as technically strong after surpassing previous highs.

• Advises caution regarding positions until clearer signals emerge; suggests waiting for deeper corrections or maintaining positions only if market strength persists.

Speculative Trading Focus

• Indicates a focus on speculative trades within commodity markets while holding investment positions in GMK; encourages following updates via social media channels.

• Stresses the importance of waiting for either corrective movements or prolonged accumulation phases before entering new positions post-growth spikes.

Future Trading Opportunities

• Mentions Yandex showing strong accumulation patterns and discusses looking for buying opportunities amid rising metal prices despite recent volatility.

• Suggests day trading possibilities based on breakout scenarios from recent price consolidations, emphasizing that certain stocks may perform independently of broader geopolitical influences.