March 30, 2023 Live Tape Reading - AM Session
Introduction
The speaker introduces themselves and checks if the audience can hear and see them.
Speaker Introduction
- The speaker introduces themselves as "foreign".
- They ask if the audience can hear and see them.
- They express appreciation for being notified through Twitter.
Market Analysis
The speaker provides an analysis of the market, including opening gaps, bearish order blocks, and dollar index levels.
Market Analysis
- There is an old new week opening gap at 4086.75.
- This is also the March 6th opening price, which is a bearish order block opening price.
- Dollar Index has almost breached the 102 level on the downside.
- The speaker notes that it's a very ugly morning so far.
Trading Strategy
The speaker discusses their trading strategy for the day, focusing on intraday volatility and tape reading during the 10 o'clock hour.
Trading Strategy
- The speaker acknowledges that there has been an impressive run since Tuesday but they are not trying to pick the top.
- They plan to trade intraday volatility with tape reading today.
- Specifically reserving attention to the 10 o'clock hour to find a five handle run in that time frame.
Morning Outlook
The speaker maps out their morning outlook, discussing fair value gaps, by side balance outside efficiency, and possible correction levels.
Morning Outlook
- There is a fair value gap in the form of a by side balance outside efficiency.
- We traded down into that at 905 hit shorter block on March 6th opening price.
- If we get above 4089.25 then we like 4104 as an upside continuation.
- Waiting specifically for the 10 o'clock hour to begin giving up the first 30 minutes of trading in the opening range.
Range and Pricing
The speaker discusses premium levels, range definition, and pricing considerations for the day.
Range and Pricing
- There is a lot of premium in here so even if we went down one third or one quarter of the range that would be something to be mindful of.
- One of the things you want to do is have your range defined pull your FIB up get 25 50 75 of the range.
- We'll see what we're getting in the 10 o'clock hour.
Market Analysis and Trading Strategies
The speaker discusses the current market conditions and offers insights into trading strategies.
Fair Value Gap and Resistance
- The speaker analyzes a range in the market to determine if it will become an inversion fair value gap.
- They discuss the opening price of the day and whether it will act as resistance.
- The speaker mentions that they are watching for any sensitivity to keep prices lower.
- They discuss how the market has been one-sided since Tuesday, with only small consolidations in the evening hours.
Difficulty in Reading Price Action
- The speaker acknowledges that this is a difficult market to read and submit to what's available in price action.
- They mention that it's hard for new traders or students who have to do live trading, as it's hard to sit still and not impulsively trade.
- The speaker notes that there are many things going on in the market, such as bank stuff and geopolitical issues.
Anticipating New York Session on Thursday
- The speaker anticipates that the New York session on Thursday generally tends to create the opposite end of the range.
- They teach their students to anticipate this pattern, but note that they are not calling a top.
Characteristics of Market Behavior
- The speaker compares how ES, Dow, and NASDAQ have been behaving differently during this one-sided algorithmically delivered week.
- They note that NASDAQ has been similar to ES while Dow has not seen higher highs like ES.
- The speaker anticipates the New York session on Thursday to create the opposite end of the range, but notes that they are not calling a top.
Observations on Price Action and Dealing with Different Personalities
In this section, the speaker talks about his observations as a mentor teaching others how to read price action and dealing with different personalities.
Learning from Experience
- The speaker shares his observations as a mentor teaching others how to read price action.
- He has dealt with many different personalities over the years.
- Some people are very stubborn, argumentative, or contrary in nature.
- When he first started learning certain things that were not in his books, he shared them with his uncle. However, his uncle would trade opposite to what he suggested.
Doing Things Your Own Way
- The speaker's oldest son got into crypto trading against his advice and lost over $20k.
- His younger son is pursuing a model of trading that he is carving out for himself. He wants to try it on his own and learn from failure.
Speaker's Expertise
- The speaker feels like he is walking behind his son who is just learning how to walk. He knows what he is doing with trading and has been consistent in avoiding crypto trading.
Teaching Technical Analysis
In this section, the speaker talks about how frustrating it is to teach technical analysis to his son. He explains that emotional stimulation can cause people to make poor decisions when trading and that most people have an ingrained characteristic of wanting to do the opposite of what they are told.
Emotional Stimulation and Candlesticks
- Shorting something when it's predominantly going higher regardless of what you think you see in the chart is frustrating.
- Candlesticks are like ink blocks used by psychiatrists. They manifest a person's own view about what is in their head.
- Candlesticks operate like ink blocks especially if you are emotionally stimulated or desperate.
Learning Curve and Ingenuity
- Emotional stimulation creates a steeper learning curve for some people who come to learn technical analysis.
- Most people have an ingrained characteristic of wanting to do the opposite of what they are told.
- The speaker doesn't trust anything he reads in books anymore, which makes him a contrarian.
Struggling with Fatherhood and Trading
- The speaker struggles with being a dad versus being the Inner Circle Trader.
- The Inner Circle Trader warns his son that he will get chopped up if he doesn't listen but as a father, he doesn't want his son to go through setbacks mentally.
- Following rules reduces the likelihood of experiencing major setbacks.
Consistency and Accuracy
- Over 90% of the time, the speaker accurately predicts where the market will go.
- The speaker doesn't understand why individuals fight his advice and then complain that they can't do it.
- It's borderline insanity to look for external responsibility for your own actions when you're the one doing it.
Dealing with a Difficult Student
In this section, the speaker talks about a student who is not following instructions and is pursuing funding in his own way. The speaker expresses frustration and concern for the student's future success.
Patience with a Difficult Student
- The speaker tries to be patient with the difficult student, unlike their usual blunt approach.
- The speaker notes that they are typically an impatient person but tries to do their best to teach the student without drilling them like they would someone else.
- The speaker notes that out of all their students, this particular one is always ready for competition but needs to allow themselves to be taught.
Going Against Advice
- The student has shown no interest in learning until now because they know they may carry on going against what they are being taught.
- Even if the student were to do it correctly a few times or even get funded doing it opposite of what was advised, it doesn't indicate skill but rather coincidence.
Difficulty Teaching Family Members
- It's harder for the speaker to deal with family members than strangers because they want to make sure not to be hot-headed like they were with their oldest son.
Market Analysis
In this section, the speaker provides an analysis of the market and discusses potential trading opportunities.
Market Analysis
- Dollar indexes are still meandering around its low of the day.
- Dow futures have slid lower as expected since it failed to make higher highs when NASDAQ was able to make higher highs.
- The speaker notes SMT diversions after digging deeper into a premium new week opening gap.
Importance of Following Trading Rules
In this section, the speaker emphasizes the importance of following trading rules and avoiding bad habits that can lead to negative consequences.
Following Trading Rules
- Being wrong in a trade is not painful, but abandoning the rules and developing bad habits can be.
- Feeling impulsive or impatient can lead to making poor decisions.
- The market is currently difficult due to various factors such as potential war, bank collapses, and new monetary system restructuring.
Market Analysis
In this section, the speaker provides an analysis of the market and discusses key levels to watch for.
Bearish Breaker
- The market is currently experiencing a lot of whipsaw movement.
- There is a bearish breaker consisting of two down closed candles that traders should watch for.
- The goal is to see price move below a certain level and leave a fair value gap before potentially shifting into a lower market structure.
Dealing Range
- A Fibonacci retracement tool can be used to determine the dealing range from low to high.
- Price swings are very animated and wild at this time.
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Trading Strategies
In this section, the speaker discusses his trading strategy and how he approaches market uncertainty.
Anchoring Strategy
- The speaker explains his anchoring strategy using two candles as reference points.
- He is willing to see the market trade up a little bit but not entirely close in.
Market Manipulation and Uncertainty
- The speaker emphasizes that nobody knows when the market will reverse or keep moving due to possible manipulation or unexpected events.
- He advises traders not to be too married to their ideas and allow for uncertainties in the marketplace.
- The speaker mentions that we are currently in Black Swan season, where anything can happen unexpectedly and cause damage to everyone's model and concepts.
- He warns traders to have this in mind all the time since it is impossible to predict what can happen in the marketplace.
Silver Bullet Trade
- The speaker introduces the Silver Bullet trade as a setup that forms every single day between 10 am and 11 am New York local time.
- Traders should anticipate a displacement in a direction, wait for a fair value gap to form, expect it to be traded into, and then repriced against their entry.
- This move will always exist, making it easy for traders to study like a laboratory experiment.
Teaching Responsibility
- The speaker tries to be responsible by advising new students not to trade with live funds but practice on demo accounts instead.
- He assures them that they will see consistent rule-based structured approaches for them to study like laboratory experiments rather than random fair value gaps.
Understanding the Silver Bullet Trading Strategy
In this section, the speaker explains the Silver Bullet trading strategy and its time-specific setup.
The Silver Bullet Trading Strategy
- The Silver Bullet is a time-specific setup that forms between 10 o'clock and 11 o'clock in the morning session.
- It is an obvious pool of liquidity that has not been tapped into or engaged.
- There are macros that exist in price where between 950 and 1010 in that 20-minute period generally you're going to see a price run that begins within that 20-minute span.
- The Silver Bullet is specific to the 10 o'clock to 11 o'clock hour, which is essentially between 8:30 in the morning to 11 o'clock. It can go as far as noon, but it's a graduated thing in terms of time.
- You're not demanding that you capture the daily range or your technical target; you're only expecting it to give you your five handles.
Fair Value Gap
- Fair value gaps are generally forming after a move begins. There's an inception of the move that you missed.
- False expectations can be created if one tries to make more out of it than what it's designed for. Stick to the rules provided by the speaker.
Trading Strategy for Optimal Results
In this section, the speaker discusses a trading strategy that can be used to achieve optimal results in a one-hour trading workday between 10 o'clock and 11 o'clock.
The One-Hour Trading Workday
- The speaker recommends taking a lunch hour early in the day between 10 o'clock and 11 o'clock to trade.
- The speaker emphasizes that traders should learn how to read a tape before pushing buttons impulsively.
- Traders who have day jobs can use this strategy without stealing time from their employers by taking their lunch hour during this time.
Understanding the Model
- The model is an entire model in itself, offering consistent and routine setups.
- Traders need to practice understanding whether it offers the range or something better than five handles.
Statistical Analysis of the Model
- This setup statistically forms consistently every single trading day.
- Traders don't need to be right about their levels; they just need to be right about whether it offers more than five handles.
Conclusion
- The speaker emphasizes that traders should not take his word for it but go back and look at every single trading day's data.
Becoming a Confident Trader
In this section, the speaker discusses how traders can become confident in using a model to trade. He emphasizes that it takes time and practice to gain confidence and suggests that traders should focus on following rules rather than being emotionally stimulated by outcomes.
Steps to Gain Confidence in Trading
- It takes about two to three months of practicing with previous data to confirm the validity of a trading model.
- Traders should aim to be completely indifferent to the outcome of their trades and follow rules objectively.
- The only way for traders to know when they are ready is when they are bored with their trading strategy.
- Being bored means that traders are not emotionally stimulated by outcomes or trying to replace bad experiences with good wins.
Trading Strategies
- Between 10 o'clock and 11 o'clock every day, traders should identify liquidity, find fair value, and wait for the market to trade towards a pool of liquidity.
- If traders are bullish, they should look for a market that will trade higher. If they are bearish, they should look for a market that will trade lower.
- Traders should focus on price rather than being right. Excellence in execution is more important than being correct.
Final Thoughts
- The speaker wants his students to avoid making the same mistakes he did as a young trader. He encourages them not to try and copy him but instead learn from his mistakes.
- The speaker is frustrated when people ask questions or make comments that show their perspective is "messed up." He wants his students to follow his advice and avoid being problematic traders.
Fading Trades
In this section, the speaker talks about traders who fade trades and have bad experiences. He encourages traders to be honest with themselves and not to fade trades.
Traders Who Fade Trades
- The speaker asks if anyone has ever faded his advice and had a bad experience.
- He encourages traders not to fade trades because they think the market has moved too far.
- Traders who fade trades are thinking in terms of buying and selling pressure, which is not how the speaker thinks or teaches.
Market Seeking Liquidity or Inefficiency
In this section, the speaker talks about how the market seeks liquidity or inefficiency. He explains that he focuses on one side of the market unless he says otherwise.
Market Seeking Liquidity or Inefficiency
- The speaker explains that he focuses on one side of the market unless he says otherwise.
- He mentions that on Tuesday, a buy model began after he talked about being specific about the buy side only.
- The video from Monday shows him targeting the buy side. There was no sell-side mentioned in any of his videos.
Difficult Trading Session
In this section, the speaker talks about how difficult it is to trade in today's market. He advises traders not to buy into other people's results after a trading session ends.
Difficult Trading Session
- The speaker did not expect Tuesday's trading session to be a one-way train all the way up to where we've seen it tape today.
- The market is doing some wonky things this year, and it's been very difficult for the speaker to do what he's used to doing.
- He advises traders not to buy into other people's results after a trading session ends because their results are based on what they're seeing on the right edge of that chart when the candles haven't formed yet.
Making Money as a Trader
In this section, the speaker talks about making money as a trader. He explains that traders can't make money on the left side of the chart and advises them to follow the rules.
Making Money as a Trader
- Traders can't make money on the left side of the chart.
- Traders need to be focused on what's happening at the right edge of that chart.
- Demo trading is there to determine when you're no longer interested in being right. If you're interested in following the rules, whatever the outcome is, you're following the rules.
- Traders should take profits partially and then move their stop loss. They should never open their stop up larger once they put a stop on it.
Lessons Learned from Trading
In this section, the speaker talks about the importance of not imposing your will on the market and learning how to anticipate difficult moves.
Imposing Your Will on the Market
- Trying to impose your will on the market is a mistake that can lead to significant losses.
- Younger traders often make this mistake, thinking they can do it all.
Anticipating Difficult Moves
- With experience, traders learn how to anticipate difficult moves in the market.
- Climbing too far too fast can set a tone for a difficult session.
The Stock Market is Not Controlled by Buying and Selling Pressure
In this section, the speaker explains why bad news does not necessarily lead to a stock market crash.
Venezuela's Example
- Even during Venezuela's economic downturn and collapse, its stock market was going up.
- Bad news does not necessarily lead to a stock market crash.
The Stock Market is Not Controlled by Buying and Selling Pressure
- The stock market is not controlled by buying and selling pressure alone.
Analyzing Daily Charts for Fair Value Deficiencies
In this section, the speaker discusses analyzing daily charts for fair value deficiencies.
Importance of Daily Charts
- Daily charts are important for identifying fair value deficiencies in the market.
Identifying Fair Value Deficiencies
- A fair value deficiency occurs when the price of an asset is below its fair value.
- New week opening gaps can help identify fair value deficiencies in old order flow areas.
Accumulation Algorithmically
- The market accumulates algorithmically with new week opening gaps.
- Traders should focus on a few key new week opening gaps rather than trying to track all of them.
Importance of Due Diligence
In this section, the speaker emphasizes the importance of due diligence and putting effort into learning.
Learning from ICT
- Students who learn from the speaker are learning from someone who has put in significant effort to understand his own concepts.
Importance of Due Diligence
- Traders must put in effort and due diligence to truly understand the concepts being taught.
- The speaker's lectures contain valuable information that should not be taken lightly or used for short-term gains.
Understanding Market Conditions
In this section, the speaker discusses the current market conditions and how to navigate them.
Difficult Market Conditions
- The speaker emphasizes that the current market conditions are difficult and challenging.
- Experienced traders understand that this type of price action is hard to navigate.
- Traders who claim that these market conditions are easy are lying.
Navigating the Market
- The speaker advises traders to be consistent and boring in their approach.
- Dial back risk, leverage, and frequency in this environment.
- Doing less is more because it reduces the chances of making mistakes.
- New traders should avoid being reckless, overtrading, or trying to get rich quick.
Importance of Experience
- The speaker highlights that experienced traders shine in difficult market conditions.
- They know how to dial back risk and navigate choppy markets effectively.
- New traders who have had potluck wins or chance wins will flounder in these conditions.
Conclusion
- The speaker concludes by emphasizing that he wants his students to learn how to read price without him.
- He wants them to be comfortable navigating different market conditions on their own.
Trading in Difficult Market Conditions
In this section, the speaker talks about how difficult it is to trade in current market conditions and advises traders to exercise patience and self-control.
Importance of Patience and Self-Control
- Fixing drawdown in these types of conditions is very difficult.
- Traders should exercise patience and self-control when the market is stagnant.
- Failure to exercise patience and self-control can lead to losing one's account balance.
Success Stories are Not a Guarantee
- The speaker has interviewed successful traders but warns against thinking that trading in current market conditions is easy.
- Even experienced traders are finding it difficult to trade in current market conditions.
Avoid Trading When Unsure
- When the market is stagnant, it's best to avoid trading.
- Traders should not try to overcome their fear by placing trades when unsure.
- Turning off charts on days with stagnant price action can help traders avoid making impulsive trades.
Recognizing Different Market Conditions
- The speaker teaches his students how to recognize different market conditions.
- Current market conditions are characterized by stagnant price action, which makes trading difficult.
The Importance of Mindset in Trading
In this section, the speaker emphasizes the importance of mindset in trading and how it is often overlooked in books and courses.
Books Don't Teach Mindset
- Books do not teach traders how to avoid moves that blow their accounts.
- Most authors only focus on promoting ideas for getting into trades, not avoiding them.
- The speaker has over 2,000 books but has never found one that teaches mindset.
Avoid Trading in Undefined Risk Environments
- New traders often feel like they have to be trading all the time, even when there is no defined risk.
- In environments with undefined risk, it's best to paper trade or stay out of the market altogether.
- It's important to know where the next draw in liquidity is before entering a trade.
Afternoon Session May Be More Favorable
In this section, the speaker discusses why he favors the afternoon session and why new traders should avoid trading in choppy markets.
Favoring Afternoon Session
- The speaker believes that the afternoon session may be more animated than earlier sessions.
- New traders often get excited about four-handle runs but fail to manage risk properly.
- It's easy to call moves and paper trade during choppy markets but difficult to make money by pushing buttons.
Avoid Trading Choppy Markets
- Choppy markets are characterized by undefined risks and sideways movements.
- Traders who try to trade these markets often get chopped up and lose money.
- Seek-and-Destroy days are days where you will not make money because you'll go long, get stopped out; go short, get stopped out.
Tough Session Ahead
In this section, the speaker discusses the tough session ahead and how traders should approach it.
Tough Session Ahead
- The speaker predicts a tough session due to the mood delivered before.
- Moves may be clean in the early session but will likely consolidate into Seek-and-Destroy days.
- Traders should avoid trading in these environments and focus on paper trading or logging experiences.
Feeling Demoralized
In this section, the speaker talks about how it feels to be left out of a group and how it can lead to feeling demoralized.
Being Left Out
- The speaker talks about how it feels when you are left out of a group.
- He mentions that he has already taught people how to make money and be precise with their entries through his YouTube channel.
- However, just watching videos is not enough. You need to be in a mentorship program where things can be explained beforehand.
Market Conditions
- The speaker emphasizes that the market will not move for anyone, even if they have strong technical tools and concepts.
- It's important to understand where you hurt yourself in the past and avoid repeating those mistakes.
- The speaker uses an analogy of a pit bull waiting for him on his 96th time passing by. He knows where he got hurt before and doesn't want to repeat that mistake.
Toxic Trading Cycle
- Rushing into trading without proper preparation can lead to toxic cycles of doubt and negativity.
- Many people have gone down this route, becoming trolls who pretend they are making money but aren't actually doing anything productive.
- Some people have even checked out of this world due to the negative impact trading had on them.
Good Days vs Difficult Days
In this section, the speaker talks about being able to identify good days versus difficult days in trading.
Identifying Good Days
- The speaker mentions that as a community, they can identify when it's going to be a good day for trading.
- However, just because he is live streaming does not mean it's time to start gambling. It's important to trust your own judgment and not rush into things.
Super Bowl Trade
- The speaker talks about the Super Bowl trade and how even though he was wrong with the sell side, it still offered five handles.
Trading Strategies and Mindset
In this section, the speaker discusses trading strategies and mindset.
Good Money and Consistency
- Consistent earnings are good money.
- There is no need to trade more if you can consistently earn.
- Being content with consistent earnings is not a failure.
Advantages of Knowing What You're Looking For
- Most traders react to price or wait for indicators to give them signals.
- Traders who use indicators cannot tell when a buy or sell signal will occur.
- Knowing what you're looking for in terms of time is advantageous.
Importance of Studying Market Data
- The speaker spent years studying market data and old moves.
- Anticipating market movements based on past data is better than relying on indicators.
Importance of Lowering Expectations
- The morning was expected to be sloppy, so it's important to lower expectations during choppy times.
- Impulsiveness about making money should not drive trading decisions.
- It's hard for everyone during difficult times, but anticipating these times can help avoid losing accounts.
Avoiding One Day Account Losses
- Losing all equity in one day or starting a chain reaction from one day's loss can lead to long-term losses.
Introduction
In this section, the speaker talks about how he wishes he had someone to teach him how to avoid making mistakes in trading. He also mentions that some traders see losing money as a badge of honor and that he wishes he could have avoided being part of the "Brotherhood."
Avoiding Mistakes
- The speaker wishes he had someone like himself to teach him how to avoid making mistakes in trading.
- Some traders see losing money as a badge of honor, but the speaker believes it's something to be avoided.
Trading Challenges
In this section, the speaker discusses the challenges of trading and how new traders may not realize all the advantages they have. He also talks about how some days in the market are impossible for making money.
Trading Challenges
- The speaker discusses how new traders may not realize all the advantages they have.
- Some days in the market are impossible for making money.
Secret to Success
In this section, the speaker talks about what keeps people in trading long enough to let their ideas pay out. He also mentions that there are no good fund managers or money managers who can trade profitably in this environment.
Secret to Success
- The secret to success is knowing when there are easy days in trading and being able to trade them.
- There are no good fund managers or money managers who can trade profitably in this environment.
Taking Time Away from Charts
In this section, the speaker emphasizes that it's okay for traders to take time away from charts and spend time with loved ones. He also talks about how frustrating it can be trying to force trades during difficult market conditions.
Taking Time Away from Charts
- It's okay for traders to take time away from charts and spend time with loved ones.
- Trying to force trades during difficult market conditions can be frustrating.
Finding Easy Days
In this section, the speaker talks about how he knows when there are easy days in trading and how new traders need to learn how to trade in different market environments. He also mentions that it's important not to force trades during difficult market conditions.
Finding Easy Days
- The speaker knows when there are easy days in trading and how to trade them.
- New traders need to learn how to trade in different market environments.
- It's important not to force trades during difficult market conditions.
Managing Trading in Difficult Market Conditions
In this section, the speaker discusses how to manage trading in difficult market conditions.
Staying Limber and Nimble
- The speaker advises traders to stay limber and nimble in order to avoid scar tissue that doesn't have elasticity.
- Traders should be willing to cut bait on days like this, meaning they should let go of trades and come back another day when the market is better.
Managing Your Time
- The speaker recommends managing your time by dividing your day. If the morning session is bad, take a break and come back later.
- Traders shouldn't sit in front of charts just because the market is open. They need to manage their business effectively.
Learning from Bad Experiences
- The speaker emphasizes that all the bad experiences he had made him who he is today. He encourages traders not to give up but instead learn from their mistakes.
Homework Assignment
- Traders are given a homework assignment: study whether the market moves outside of its current range. If it breaks below significantly below this low or above the high of the new week opening gap, there may be opportunities for trading.
The Silver Bullet Idea
In this section, the speaker talks about the Silver Bullet idea and how it can be profitable even if it's not correct about where the market is going to go.
The Silver Bullet Idea
- The Silver Bullet idea pays out better than five handles.
- It doesn't have to be correct about where the market is going to go.
- Sell side and buy side are points of reference where the market can gravitate to.
- It's easy to get five handles profit, but you need to be diligent and stick to your rules.