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Excess deaths in Canada
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Excess deaths in Canada

Introduction

In this talk, the speaker discusses ongoing excess deaths in Western countries and provides an overview of COVID-19 symptoms.

COVID-19 Symptoms

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  • The vast majority of COVID-19 cases have mild or no symptoms.
  • Common symptoms include sore throat, blocked/runny nose, headache, sneezing, cough (with or without phlegm), muscle pains, fatigue, altered smell/taste, sore eyes, swollen neck glands.
  • Less common symptoms include shortness of breath (more specific to COVID-19), earache, shoulder/joint pain, fever (sometimes present with common cold), chest pain/tightness.
  • Most COVID-19 symptoms are similar to those of a common cold and can be difficult to distinguish clinically.

Excess Deaths in the United Kingdom

This section covers excess deaths in the United Kingdom due to COVID-19.

Week 16 - Week 18

  • In week 16 (ending April 21st), there were 2540 excess deaths in the UK (22% above expected).
  • In week 17 (ending April 28th), there were 1569 excess deaths in the UK (12.9% above expected).
  • In the latest data available at the time of recording, there were still 598 excess deaths in the UK (5.4% above expected).

Excess Deaths in Canada

This section covers excess deaths in Canada due to COVID-19.

Overall Data for All Ages and Both Sexes

  • Excess deaths for Canada as a whole are highest in October and November 2022.
  • Excess deaths for 2020 (when COVID-19 was first identified) are lower than expected, while excess deaths for 2021 and 2022 are higher than expected.
  • The data is complicated and difficult to interpret without additional context.

Excess Deaths in Canada

In this section, the speaker discusses data from Canada regarding excess deaths during the pandemic. The adjusted number of deaths is higher than expected for 2020 and 2021, but concerningly high for 2022. The speaker notes that there was a peak in early Omicron wave, which was more deadly in the US and Canada than in the UK.

Adjusted Number of Deaths

  • The adjusted number of deaths is roughly equal to the actual number of deaths.
  • It's unclear why they're using adjusted numbers instead of actual numbers.
  • Whenever the black line (actual adjusted number of deaths) is above the blue line (expected number of deaths based on previous years averages), it's probable that there were excess deaths.
  • Whenever the black line is above the red dotted line (95% prediction interval), it's almost certain there are excess deaths.

Concerning Data

  • For most of 2022, whenever the black line is above the red dotted line, it's almost certain there are excess deaths.
  • Any number bigger than the red dotted line indicates something new causing higher numbers of death.
  • It's likely that there have been excess deaths throughout all of 2022.

Excess Deaths in Australia

In this section, the speaker discusses data from Australia regarding excess deaths during January 2023. There were 14,547 total deaths in January 2023, which is 12.4% above baseline.

January 2023 Data

  • There were a total of 14,547 deaths in January 2023.
  • This is 12.4% above baseline, indicating that excess deaths from 2022 have carried over into the new year.

Factors Causing Excess Deaths in Australia and the UK

In this section, the speaker discusses the factors causing excess deaths in Australia and the United Kingdom.

Similarities in Excess Deaths

  • The same percentage of increased excess deaths is being caused by factorial factors in both countries.
  • It is conceivable that something of equivalent lethality is causing excess deaths in both countries.

COVID-19 Impact on Excess Deaths

  • COVID-19 came to Australia late, resulting in fewer deaths from February onwards.
  • Overall, there were 15.3 more deaths than expected in Australia.
  • January 2023 saw a 12.4 increase in excess deaths compared to previous years.

Possibility of Continued Increase

  • If the same factor or factors are causing increased deaths in both countries, it is possible that excess deaths will continue to rise in Australia.
  • The issue of ongoing excess deaths is not being covered enough by mainstream media.

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Video description

Covid symptoms are mostly ‘cold like’ and mild Symptom Prevalence (%) Sore throat 60.45 Blocked nose 57.17 Runny nose 52.68 Headache 49.74 Sneezing 49.05 Cough no phlegm 46.46 Hoarse voice 40.24 Cough with phlegm 40.24 Muscle pains aches 30.57 Fatigue 23.66 Dizzy light headed 21.07 Altered smell 20.38 Eye soreness 18.83 Swollen neck glands 18.65 Loss of smell 17.27 Shortness of breath 14.51 Earache 13.99 Joint pain shoulders 13.99 Fever 13.47 Chest pain tightness 13.3 UK excess deaths https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths Week 16 (W/E 21 April) + 22.1% 2,540 Week 17 (W/E 28 April) + 12.9% 1,569 Week 18 (W/E 5 May) + 5.4% 598 Professor Fenton. Substack, https://wherearethenumbers.substack.com/about And YouTube, https://www.youtube.com/@NormanFenton81/videos Canada excess deaths https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/71-607-x/71-607-x2021028-eng.htm The actual number of observed deaths is ‘at least’ the black dotted line. Whenever the black line is above the blue line it is probable that there were excess deaths Whenever the black line is above the red dotted line it is almost certain there are excess deaths. So, it is likely there have been excess deaths every month since mid-March with especially large peaks in April-May and December. Any number bigger than the red dotted line, then we expect something new is likely causing this especially high number of deaths. Australia excess deaths https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/health/causes-death/provisional-mortality-statistics/jan-2023 January 2023 There were 14,547 deaths in January, 12.4% more than the baseline average (but 10.5% less than January 2022) COVID-19 caused 213 deaths in February, down from 731 in January Jan to December 2022 In 2022, there were 190,394 deaths, which is 25,235 (15.3%) more than the historical average