Macro Roundtable | Numbers Therapy Podcast Ep.41 (ft. Shaggy, Easus, & Crocked)

Introduction

In this section, the host introduces the show and its purpose. The purpose of Numbers Therapy is to talk through the macro and bring on experts in Metaverse HQ to help everyone understand how all the big pieces fit together to make better decisions.

• The show was created to discuss macro topics and showcase experts in Metaverse HQ.

• The purpose of Numbers Therapy is to help people understand how all the big pieces fit together to make better decisions.

Purpose of Numbers Therapy

In this section, the host explains that Numbers Therapy is intended to happen every six weeks as part of a series. The purpose of Numbers Therapy is to talk through operational, financial, technical, trading-based dimensions of web 3 putting the pieces together.

• Numbers Therapy is intended to happen every six weeks as part of a series.

• The purpose of Numbers Therapy is to talk through operational, financial, technical, trading-based dimensions of web 3 putting the pieces together.

Macro Roundtable

In this section, the host introduces a new episode type called Macro Roundtable. This episode will be running approximately every six weeks. It will assess the current state of overall markets risk markets nfts and beyond and piece together where we think the markets are heading in near and midterm.

• A new episode type called Macro Roundtable has been introduced.

• This episode will be running approximately every six weeks.

• It will assess the current state of overall markets risk markets nfts and beyond.

• It will piece together where we think the markets are heading in near and midterm.

Guests Introduction

In this section, three guests are introduced for today's show. Each guest has a different background and perspective on web 3 and NFTs.

• Three guests are introduced for today's show.

• Each guest has a different background and perspective on web 3 and NFTs.

Guest Background

In this section, the host asks each guest to talk about their background and how they landed in the web 3 in NFT world.

• The host asks each guest to talk about their background and how they landed in the web 3 in NFT world.

Background on Sneaker Resale and Web3

In this section, the speakers discuss their backgrounds in sneaker resale and web3. They talk about how they got into the industry and their experiences with it.

Sneaker Resale Business

• One of the speakers started a sneaker resale business while in business school.

• They found that people were making the same profit, so they decided to dive in.

• One speaker spent five years as a software engineer before becoming a full-time asset trader.

Getting into Web3

• The COVID pandemic made one speaker hyper-aware of financial markets, leading them to give Bitcoin a chance.

• This led them down the rabbit hole of crypto, web3, and NFTs.

• One speaker believes that when NFTs become more mainstream, people won't identify or talk about them as NFTs but will use them like other tools and subscriptions.

Perspectives on NFTS and Web3 Over the Past Two Years

In this section, the speakers discuss their perspectives on NFTS and web3 over the past two years. They talk about where we started, where we progressed to, and where we find ourselves now.

Laser's Perspective

• Laser believes that any new technology brings hype and speculation.

• He has seen attention being driven towards crypto for the past two years but has also seen it fizzle out recently due to economic factors.

• However, he thinks that there are many good things being built with NFTs, such as ticketing, video game assets, and house deeds.

E's Perspective

• E agrees with Laser that there was a lot of hope and potential in the past two years.

• He compares it to the dot-com bubble but believes that all the hope and potential will eventually lead to rational use cases.

Introducing Technology and Behavioral Change

The discussion centers around the introduction of technology and behavioral change in the ecosystem of how companies and consumers work.

Technology and Behavioral Change

• The goal is to introduce technology and behavioral change.

• It is important to be more economical on all sides for this to make a significant impact.

• It will take time for the adoption curve to mature, but there are some cool things going on.

Current State of NFTs

The conversation revolves around the current state of NFTs, their value, and their future.

Value of NFTs

• We are still early in the adoption curve for NFTs.

• There are not many people using NFTs yet, but they will iterate many times before reaching maturity.

• For those that remain, they will have a finite supply that could potentially increase in value over time.

Connection Between Economy, Risk Markets, and NFTS

This section discusses the connection between the economy, risk markets, and NFTS.

Economic Cycle

• We are late in the economic cycle with a recession looming.

• A recession is needed to bring inflation down.

Risk Markets

• Companies are reluctant to let go of employees which keeps employment picture strong enough.

• Until we start seeing company earnings roll over or job market weaken we won't see markets capitulate.

Understanding a Recession

In this section, the speakers discuss what a recession means and how it affects people's daily lives.

What is a recession?

• A recession is when the economy slows down, and people tend to cut back on spending.

• Markets tend to react before the actual economy, so markets may bottom out early in a recession.

• The Fed can help by lowering rates and doing other things to help the economy recover.

How does a recession affect people's daily lives?

• People tend to cut back on spending during a recession, which can lead to uncertainty about their personal economic situation.

• They may not buy big-ticket items or take vacations they had planned.

• If someone loses their job or is worried about losing their job, they may spend even less.

State of the Market and Employment

In this section, the speakers discuss where they think we are in terms of the market and employment during this recession.

Where are we in terms of the market?

• We've been channeling in the same range for a while now.

• There has been a risk-off sentiment for some time now.

• Mid-tier companies need to start resizing and cutting back for us to see real change.

How does employment factor into this?

• Many high-paying jobs have been lost recently, but there hasn't been much wage retraction yet.

• Unemployment numbers aren't going down, which suggests that the economy isn't recovering as quickly as hoped.

• Those who have lost high-paying jobs are likely those who would spend money on speculative assets like NFTs and crypto.

Risk-Off Environment

The speakers discuss the impact of a risk-off environment on spending and investing, causing NFTs and other risk assets to suffer. They also touch on unemployment rates and high prices.

Impact of Risk-Off Environment

• A risk-off environment discourages spending and investing.

• Unemployment rates are still too low, and prices are too high.

• Layoffs have mostly affected tech companies, which were already overextended.

• Until layoffs affect mid-tier companies or other sectors, inflation will not reach desired levels.

Automation in Blue-Collar Jobs

The speakers discuss the possibility of automation accelerating in blue-collar jobs due to inflation and people having less disposable income.

Accelerated Pathway to Automation

• Inflation may force an accelerated pathway to automation in blue-collar jobs.

• There is a shortage of blue-collar workers, but automation may magnify the situation further.

• AI is harder for companies to institutionalize than people think, especially for white-collar jobs.

• Companies need more time to integrate AI before laying off employees becomes comfortable.

• Whiplash from hiring shortages can make it difficult for companies to let go of new hires who haven't yet become productive.

Rise of Tech in Job Markets

The speakers discuss how the rise of tech affects job markets during recessions.

Impact on Job Markets

• During recessions, there is a rise in tech jobs.

• The rise of tech jobs may lead to a lack of blue-collar workers.

• In 2008, there was a similar situation where the recession led to a rise in tech jobs.

• Automation and AI are becoming more prevalent in job markets.

Rise of Small and Medium-Sized Companies

The speakers discuss the potential rise of small and medium-sized companies in the next few years due to factors such as distrust for centralized organizations, accessibility of next-gen tech, and the ownership economy.

Factors Leading to Rise of Small and Medium-Sized Companies

• Distrust for centralized organizations

• Accessibility of next-gen tech

• Ownership economy

Benefits of Smaller Companies

• Niche workers can benefit from smaller companies

• Foundational knowledge built up by early adopters can be mobilized in smaller companies

Centralization vs Decentralization

The speakers discuss their thoughts on centralization versus decentralization in various industries.

Need for Leadership

• Humans need a centralized entity to lead them

• Even in the creator economy, payment is still collected through centralized means

Hybrid Approach

• A hybrid approach may emerge over time with both centralized and decentralized elements coexisting

• Large companies will continue to exist due to efficiency at scale

English Macro Risks Discussion

In this section, the speakers discuss the biggest near-term risk to the macro and how to protect assets in a murky situation.

Near-Term Risk

• The biggest near-term risk is the reduction of liquidity and raising interest rates by the FED.

• Something will break, but it won't be predictable. It could come from emerging markets or somewhere else.

• With all the directional things that could happen, such as banks or international issues, it's a pretty likely situation right now.

Protecting Assets

• If there's going to be a crack or cracks that are going to be an issue, how does one think about protecting their assets?

• Don't fight against the FED. Behave with your money in line with how they behave.

• Invest in therapies and hold dollars.

Protecting Assets in Uncertain Times

In this section, the speakers discuss how to protect assets during uncertain times and where to invest for safety.

Investing in Too Big to Fail Companies

• The speaker suggests investing in too big to fail companies as they are supported by the government and are safer.

• The financial system is crucial for civilization, and anything supported by the government is a little bit safer.

• It would be premature to think that the banking and financial system will go down to zero in the short term.

U.S. Treasury Security

• The ultimate defensive security is a U.S. treasury security, which is backed by the US government.

• Nothing is more powerful or safe than something backed by the US government.

Hopium Hats - A Pragmatic Approach

In this section, the speakers discuss a pragmatic approach towards investing during uncertain times.

Going Against Decentralization

• Sometimes, pragmatically speaking, it's better to go against decentralization and invest in centralized places where assets are more protected.

Catalyst for an Upturn

• If there were an earlier-than-expected upturn happening within risk markets like crypto and Wall Street, what catalyst could enable it?

• A Fed that cuts interest rates can be a catalyst for an upturn.

Playing with the Fed

• When the Fed starts cutting interest rates, go long. Don't fight against them.

Investing in Web3 during a Recession

The speakers discuss the current macro context and possible pathways for investing in web3 during a recession. They also provide advice on how to spend time economically given the current macro.

Best Way to Spend Time in a Market Downturn

• Make sure you are financially comfortable, have money saved up or have a job with income coming in.

• Learn by building, investing, or trading. Even if you fail, the experience will be valuable.

• Be smart with your money and take calculated risks. Keep learning and putting yourself out there.

• Picking up knowledge and continuing to test things will compound your knowledge and put you ahead of others who enter the space later.

Investing in Web3 During a Recession

• If rate cuts happen, it may be an opportunity to invest.

• It is likely that recovery will take 12-18 months or more.

• There is no wrong answer when it comes to how to spend your time. As long as you're learning something, it's valuable.

• Know your financial situation and try to make smart decisions based on that.

Conclusion

Investing in web3 during a recession can be challenging but taking calculated risks while being financially responsible can lead to valuable experiences and knowledge. Keep learning and testing new ideas while being mindful of your financial situation.

Repackaging Personal Brand

In this section, the speakers discuss how to repackage personal brand and position oneself for future opportunities.

Drawing a String from Past to Present

• The speaker left their corporate job in 2019 and spent time consulting and working on side businesses.

• They aim to document what they have learned and repackage their personal brand to take advantage of future opportunities.

• The speaker is learning Python to position themselves for the next opportunity.

Financial Security

• It is important to be financially secure before taking risks in trading or investing.

• Everyone has different financial needs based on their life situation.

Success in Different Spaces

• Traditional NFT space may not yield as much profit compared to other spaces such as farming airdrops or looking at new protocols.

• Success can also be found in DraftKings rainmakers, which is another spin on NFT space.

MVHQ Community

• MVHQ community focuses on web3 and NFT but also includes savvy individuals who are good at playing different games and figuring out new opportunities.

Investing in NFTs

In this section, the speakers discuss their thoughts on investing in NFTs and where they think they will be spending more time and energy in the future.

Blue Chips vs. Multiples

• The market is starting to open up, and investors are looking to put money into NFTs 12-24 months out.

• One speaker prefers accumulating assets of blue chips due to their historical nature and community, while the other speaker prefers multiples and playing whatever narrative emerges at the time.

• The new irrational or promiscuous money will come in based on the emerging narrative, which is where one speaker thinks they should focus their attention.

Predicting Future Trends

• One speaker tries to make comparisons with past trends to predict future ones.

• They agree that only Yugioh assets can be considered an NFT blue chip.

• It's hard for them to see any significant bull run happening soon, so they would not be the first ones to jump in.

Overall, both speakers have different approaches when it comes to investing in NFTs. One prefers blue chips due to their historical nature and community, while the other focuses on multiples and playing whatever narrative emerges at the time. They both agree that predicting future trends is challenging but essential for successful investments.

NFT Market Speculation

In this section, the speakers discuss the current state of the NFT market and how it is driven by speculation. They also talk about how the market may evolve in the future.

NFT Market Driven by Speculation

• The NFT market is currently driven by speculation.

• Once people start using NFTs for their utility, there will be less speculation.

• The market may become more like collecting Pokemon or football cards where people have fun collecting them.

Irrational Behavior in Certain Asset Categories

• Some assets, such as art in the web 2 world, have irrational prices despite not having strict utility attached to them.

• The irrational behavior may exist more in certain asset categories that offer flex appeal on a variety of things.

Investing in NFTs During Bull Runs

In this section, the speakers discuss their approach to investing in NFTs during bull runs and how they diversify their investments.

Risky Type of Plays During Bull Runs

• During bull runs, investors are rewarded for taking risks.

• One speaker plans to be much more aggressive during the next bull run.

• They don't consider anything in the NFT space a blue chip investment because they are looking for very risky type of plays.

Diversifying Investments with Art Collecting

• One speaker buys and vaults one-of-one art pieces as a hobby and enjoys it as an art collector.

• They don't expect to make any money from these investments but see it as a way to diversify their portfolio.

Understanding the Goals of Investing

In this section, the speakers discuss the importance of understanding one's goals before investing and how different factors can influence investment decisions.

Identifying Investment Goals

• Before investing, it is important to identify what your goal is for investing.

• There is no one-size-fits-all answer when it comes to investing goals.

• It is important not to react to hype but rather identify what you want to achieve through your investments.

Factors Influencing Investment Decisions

• Different factors such as social status, brand building, and utility can influence investment decisions.

• Personal interests such as art can also play a role in investment decisions.

The US Dollar Dominance and Its Potential Impact on the Economy

In this section, the speakers discuss the narrative around the decline of reliance on the US dollar and its potential impact on the economy.

Narrative Around US Dollar Decline

• The narrative around the decline of reliance on the US dollar has been around for 15-20 years.

• While there are different themes that challenge dollar dominance, there is no realistic competitor at present.

Factors Supporting US Dollar Dominance

• The US has a diverse economy and strong military presence which supports its position as a dominant currency.

Shift in Business Markets

In this section, the speakers discuss the shift that is happening in business markets and whether there is any kind of leverage that will start to come out in the business markets.

Dominance of New Players

• A new dominant player is trying to establish itself.

• This will bring opportunities for some and uncomfortable times for others.

• As dominance in the US as a superpower grows, it will open up opportunities for those who can navigate the environment on other parts of the world.

Opportunities for Those Who Can Traverse Both

• People who can traverse both worlds will be able to take advantage of a broader market and see more opportunities.

• For people who are dollar-denominated, it may be difficult to take advantage of these opportunities.

Conclusion

• The discussion was useful for framing how we spend our time and being open geographically.

• The speakers plan to continue doing this podcast series since things always continue to move.