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Why Everything Still Feels So Uncertain Right Now & What it Means for Your Money
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Why Everything Still Feels So Uncertain Right Now & What it Means for Your Money

Welcome to Over the Back Fence

Introduction of Guests and Topic

  • The hosts welcome Roger Montgomery, a financial expert and founder of Montgomery Investment, back to the show.
  • Discussion highlights Roger's impactful presence on social media, particularly Instagram, where he shares valuable financial insights.
  • The conversation shifts towards intergenerational inequality and its connection to immigration policies.

Current Economic Climate

  • A key question arises: Are we in a recession? Roger suggests that personal experiences can indicate economic downturns.
  • He explains that while aggregate statistics may not show a recession, individual experiences often reflect otherwise due to rising costs of living.
  • Roger emphasizes that many individuals are feeling financially strained despite overall economic growth being masked by population increases.

Understanding Inflation and Cost of Living

Personal Experiences with Rising Prices

  • Hosts share anecdotes about increasing prices for everyday items like coffee and groceries, highlighting the impact on social interactions.
  • The discussion returns to the idea that while collective statistics may appear stable, individual experiences tell a different story regarding economic hardship.

Surveillance Pricing in Supermarkets

  • Roger introduces the concept of surveillance pricing being implemented by supermarkets through electronic price tags.
  • This technology allows stores to adjust prices based on demand or customer data, raising ethical concerns about consumer exploitation.

Implications of Surveillance Pricing

Consumer Data Usage

  • Discussion reveals how loyalty programs can fuel surveillance pricing by tracking consumer behavior and adjusting prices accordingly.
  • Examples illustrate potential scenarios where consumers could be charged more based on their shopping habits or urgency.

Government Regulation Needed

  • Roger argues for government intervention to ban surveillance pricing technologies due to their potential for abuse against consumers.

Broader Economic Context

Global Economic Factors

  • The conversation shifts towards global events affecting local economies, including geopolitical tensions and market volatility.

Stock Market Insights

  • Despite fears surrounding various global issues, Roger reassures listeners that stock markets are currently at all-time highs in some regions like the U.S., contrasting with Australia's performance.

Structural Differences Between Markets

Australian vs. U.S. Market Dynamics

  • Roger explains how tax structures influence company behaviors regarding profit retention and dividend payouts between Australia and the U.S., impacting market growth potential.

Predictions About Property Prices

  • He addresses predictions about property price declines in Australia but reassures listeners about systemic incentives preventing drastic drops.

Financial Stability Reassurance

Importance of Home Values

  • Discussion highlights how significant portions of banks' assets are tied up in residential mortgages; thus they have vested interests in maintaining property values.

Conclusion on Market Volatility

  • While acknowledging potential short-term declines in property values or stock markets due to external factors, Roger encourages patience among investors rather than panic selling.

Interest Rate Decisions and Economic Impact

Overview of Interest Rate Changes

  • The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is set to make a decision on interest rates, which have recently increased to 4.35%.
  • This marks the third consecutive rate hike, leading to higher mortgage costs for homeowners and reduced discretionary spending.

Effects on Retail and Construction Sectors

  • Increased borrowing costs will likely slow down retail sales as consumers have less disposable income.
  • The construction industry, being the second-largest employer in Australia, will also face challenges due to decreased demand for building and renovations.

Government Budget Concerns

  • The upcoming budget is critical as the government needs to regain voter confidence after initial support has waned.
  • Potential strategies may include financial aid or tax adjustments targeting wealthier individuals, though misconceptions about who qualifies as "rich" are noted.

Understanding Negative Gearing

Definition and Implications

  • Negative gearing involves losing money on an investment property while receiving some tax benefits; it encourages long-term investment for retirement.
  • Investors can claim back a portion of their losses based on their tax rate, but they still incur net losses.

Personal Insights on Property Investment

  • The discussion emphasizes that property markets vary significantly by location; expert advice is crucial for informed decisions.
  • Emotional factors often drive home purchases beyond mere financial considerations; personal stability can outweigh market fluctuations.

Key Drivers of Property Prices

Migration and Credit Access

  • Migration is identified as a primary factor influencing property prices; halting migration can lead to price declines.
  • Access to credit plays a significant role in property growth; tighter lending conditions due to rising interest rates restrict borrowing capacity.

Financial Management Strategies

Spending Habits During Economic Uncertainty

  • Individuals are advised to reassess their spending habits amidst rising living costs; prioritizing savings is essential.

Practical Savings Tips

  • A recommended strategy includes reviewing bank statements and categorizing expenses into 'needs' versus 'wants' to identify potential savings opportunities.

Investment Perspectives: Quality Over Quantity

Private Credit Investments Explained

  • There’s a distinction between different types of private credit funds; not all carry the same risk profile despite general perceptions.

Importance of Quality Assets

  • Investing in high-quality assets across various classes—be it shares or real estate—is emphasized as a fundamental principle for long-term success.

Conclusion: Navigating Financial Decisions

Final Thoughts

  • Throughout the discussion, there’s an emphasis on balancing emotional needs with financial realities when making investment decisions.
Video description

This week Nicola and Di are back with Over The Money Fence with Roger Montgomery. This series aims to help you take control of your finances with clarity and confidence. Roger is the Founder and Chairman of Montgomery Investment Management - https://investwith.montinvest.com/otbf, has over 30 years’ investing experience and is a highly respected financial commentator featuring on various ABC programs, as well as his popular column in The Australian newspaper. He is also the author of best-selling investment guidebook Value.able. In this episode, Roger reassures us that despite everything that’s going on globally, it’s not all doom and gloom when it comes to the economy and markets. Are we in a recession? We discuss why the cost-of-living crisis and how this is changing our spending habits, plus the latest pricing tricks used by supermarkets and airlines. We also talk about property and why Roger believes that people who are predicting that property prices in Australia will fall by 40% are wrong. He goes through all of the reasons why this isn’t likely to happen and explains the 2 major drivers of property prices.  He also shares his thoughts on negative gearing and capital gains tax, and what they mean for investors – very timely given this week’s Budget announcement. Is now a good time to spend or save? Roger gives us an excellent and practical tool for how we can build up our savings when the cost of living is high.  Roger also shares his insights about where we should be investing now and goes through the difference between various private credit funds and the importance of investing in quality.  As always, we loved having this conversation with Roger in the studio. He always makes us feel more calm and confident about our financial decisions. We hope you enjoy this episode as much as we did.  This episode is proudly supported by Montgomery Investment Management, trusted experts helping you build and protect your financial future. For further information, please contact David Buckland, Chief Executive Officer or Rhodri Taylor, Account Manager on (02) 8046 5000 or investor@montinvest.com Find out more about Montgomery Investment Management here - https://montinvest.com Find out more about Montgomery private credit funds here -    https://www.montinvest.com/privatecredit Read Roger’s Whitepaper on private credit funds here - https://rogermontgomery.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/Whitepaper-_-cutting-through-the-noise-why-australian-private-credit-stands-apart.pdf Learn more about Roger and read his articles here - https://rogermontgomery.com Buy Roger's book Value.able here - https://rogermontgomery.com/valueable-book/ Follow Roger on IG here - https://www.instagram.com/rogerjmontgomery/ Follow Roger’s YouTube channel here  - https://www.youtube.com/user/rogerjmontgomery Follow Roger on X here - https://x.com/rjmontgomery Follow Roger on Facebook here - https://www.facebook.com/montgomeryroger/ Follow Roger on LinkedIn here - https://www.linkedin.com/in/rogermontgomery/ Follow Nicola and Di on IG here - https://www.instagram.com/overthebackfencepodcast/ Follow Nicola and Di on YouTube here - https://www.youtube.com/@Overthebackfencepodcast/podcasts Timestamps 0:00