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ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 08 - Projecting Daily Highs & Lows
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ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 08 - Projecting Daily Highs & Lows

Lesson Four: Projecting Daily Highs and Lows

In this lesson, the focus is on projecting daily highs and lows based on the Central Bank dealers' range and deviations from it.

Understanding Price Movements Away from Central Bank Dealers' Range

  • Price movements can reach up to three standard deviations above or below the Central Bank dealers' range.
  • Analyzing how far price moves away from the Central Bank dealers' range helps determine potential sell-off or buy days.
  • It's crucial to assess price extensions after the move has started rather than predicting them beforehand.

Utilizing Standard Deviations for Price Projections

  • Ideal scenarios often see price movements within two standard deviations, with rare instances exceeding three standard deviations.
  • Generally, market tendencies avoid going beyond three standard deviations, with a preference for staying within two standard deviations.

Analyzing Central Bank Dealers' Range

This section revisits the concept of Central Bank dealers' range and its implications for trading decisions.

Reviewing Central Bank Dealers' Range Parameters

  • The optimal range for trading falls between 20 to 40 pips during specific hours (2 pm to 8 pm New York time).
  • Trading is discouraged when the range exceeds 40 pips, focusing instead on identifying daily high and low points.

Wick vs. Body Analysis for Trading Ranges

  • Analyzing price ranges using both wicks and bodies of candles provides comprehensive insights into market movements.
  • Emphasizing body analysis aids in understanding price projections based on candlestick patterns effectively.

Advanced Techniques in Price Projection

Delving into advanced techniques for precise price projection strategies in trading practices.

Unveiling Advanced Price Projection Strategies

  • Revealing exclusive techniques that offer remarkable precision in forecasting future price levels based on historical data.

Detailed Analysis of Trading Strategies

In this section, the speaker delves into detailed explanations of trading strategies using PD arrays and standard deviations to analyze price movements.

Explaining PD Arrays and Bullish Order Blocks

  • PD arrays are outlined with a mean threshold of a bull shoulder block.
  • Price hits a level, creating the first of three up candles.

Analyzing Price Movements in Premium on Daily Chart

  • When price trades up into a premium on the daily chart, it indicates a bullish order block.
  • The low and high points are crucial for understanding price movements within the bear shoulder block.

Utilizing Central Bank Dealer's Range for Projections

  • The range created by Central Bank dealer's reign becomes a known range for projections.
  • Understanding the protractionary state in the marketplace due to swings in London is essential for projections.

Time Elements and London Kill Zone Reference Point

  • Market behavior at specific times like midnight in New York and two o'clock in the afternoon impacts trading decisions.
  • Introduction to London Kill Zone reference point for trading analysis.

Projecting Highs and Lows Using Standard Deviations

  • Utilizing standard deviations from Central Bank dealer's range to project highs and lows of the day.
  • Incorporating time and price theory to predict bearish days based on standard deviations used by dealers.

Understanding Daily Trading Ranges

In this section, the speaker discusses how to determine daily trading ranges using standard deviations and Central Bank dealers' ranges.

Determining Trading Ranges

  • The objective is to take profits based on two standard deviations of the Central Bank dealers' range.
  • By projecting a range mock-up from the low on certain days, one can determine the projected daily range low.
  • Going down one standard deviation is advised when there are bullish order blocks present, even if not hitting it precisely.

Projected High and Time Elements

  • Measuring the total range by combining two projected standard deviations up gives a projected High.
  • Analyzing how price movements align with projected highs and lows can provide insights into market behavior and timing.

Analyzing Price Movements for Profit Taking

This section delves into analyzing price movements to identify optimal points for taking profits in trading.

Identifying Profit-Taking Opportunities

  • Recognizing buy-side delivery voids and sell-side deliveries helps pinpoint areas for profit-taking.
  • Closing in fair value gaps presents opportunities for early profit exits based on PD arrays analysis.

Precision in Trading Decisions

  • Utilizing two standard deviations up provides a precise measure for potential price movements within a day's trading range.
  • Understanding when to expect price movements to peter out based on fair value gaps and time windows enhances decision-making accuracy.

Utilizing Standard Deviations for Trade Management

This part focuses on leveraging standard deviations in trade management strategies for optimal outcomes.

Trade Management Strategies

  • Utilizing potential standard deviations up aids in defining trade management strategies effectively.

Understanding Key Concepts in Trading Analysis

In this section, the speaker delves into the importance of understanding Kill Zone and Central Bank dealer ranges in trading analysis.

Importance of Kill Zone and Central Bank Ranges

  • The Kill Zone involves cutting lows to determine a standard deviation range from the Central Bank range.
  • Understanding how many standard deviations go up is crucial for predicting market movements.

New York Session Reversal and Order Blocks

  • During a New York session reversal, price may trade down into a daily bullish order block, affecting weekly lows.
  • Analyzing price movements leading to rallies involves identifying rejection blocks and shoulder block overlaps.

Precision in Trading Analysis

  • Precision lies in blending Central Bank dealers' range projections with other factors for accurate entries and exits.
  • Applying standard deviations based on specific timeframes can lead to errors if not considering the importance of directional bias and range limitations.

Probability Setup and Central Bank Dealers Range

In this section, the speaker discusses the probability setup based on the Central Bank dealers' range and its impact on measurements.

Probability Setup and Measurement

  • The ideal range for Central Bank dealers is around 20-30 Pips for effective measurement.
  • Average daily range is typically about 100 Pips, aiding in measurement accuracy.

Impact of Central Bank Deals Range on London Open Kill Zone

This part delves into how a larger Central Bank deals range can disrupt synchronization for the London open Kill Zone.

Disruption by Larger Range

  • In a protractionary state in London, an average of about 33 Pips is expected.
  • It can vary from just six Pips but generally allows up to 33 Pips.
  • A Central Bank deals range exceeding 40 Pips tends to disturb the synchronization for the London open Kill Zone.

Confidentiality of Information

The importance of keeping valuable information confidential is emphasized in this segment.

Importance of Confidentiality

  • Emphasizes not sharing valuable insights with others to maintain exclusivity and benefit personally.
  • Encourages keeping such knowledge private and not distributing it widely.
Playlists: 2017 ICT Private Mentorship Core Content Month 08
Video description

2017 Premium ICT Mentorship Core Content Video Lectures Audio and visuals are exactly as they were distributed in April 2017. CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN Trading performance displayed herein is hypothetical. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance trading results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results. U.S. Government Required Disclaimer – Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. Trade at your own risk. The information provided here is of the nature of a general comment only and neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person’s investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. You should seek appropriate advice from your broker, or licensed investment advisor, before taking any action. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Simulated performance results contain inherent limitations. Unlike actual performance records the results may under or over compensate for such factors such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses to those shown. The risk of loss in trading can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. If you purchase or sell Equities, Futures, Currencies or Options you may sustain a total loss of the initial margin funds and any additional funds that you deposit with your broker to establish or maintain your position. If the market moves against your position, you may be called upon by your broker to deposit a substantial amount of additional margin funds, on short notice in order to maintain your position. If you do not provide the required funds within the prescribed time, your position may be liquidated at a loss, and you may be liable for any resulting deficit in your account. Under certain market conditions, you may find it difficult or impossible to liquidate a position. This can occur, for example, when the market makes a “limit move.” The placement of contingent orders by you, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders.