Unable to Attend Washington

The speaker expresses regret for not being able to attend an event in Washington.

• The speaker states that they cannot be present in Washington.

Turkey's 100th Anniversary

The speaker mentions the 100th anniversary of the Turkish Republic.

• The speaker notes that the Turkish Republic is celebrating its 100th anniversary this year.

Adon's Coalition Government

The speaker discusses the recent elections in Turkey and Adon's coalition government.

• Despite economic challenges, Adon and his coalition secured a majority in parliament during elections held on May 14 and May 28.

• Adon's coalition will govern Turkey for the next five years.

Strained US-Turkey Relations

The speaker talks about how US-Turkey relations have become strained during Adon's time in power.

• During the second half of Adon's time as leader, US-Turkey relations have come under increasing strain due to issues such as Syria and Turkey's S-400 purchase.

Shared Interests between US and Turkey

The speaker highlights shared interests between the United States and Turkey.

• Despite tensions, there are many areas where the United States and Turkey share interests, including energy.

• Turkey has played an important role in helping with gas supply to Europe as a main transit country.

Recent Conversation with Turkish Foreign Minister

The speaker mentions a recent conversation between Secretary Blanket and Turkish Foreign Minister Chavushonl.

• The speaker notes that the call is followed by a recent conversation between Secretary Blanket and Turkish Foreign Minister Chavushonl.

Introduction of Panelists

The speaker introduces the panelists for the event.

• Radio Wilson introduces the distinguished panelists who will be participating in the discussion.

• The speaker hands over moderation to Radio Wilson, who will be moderating from Washington, D.C.

Greetings to Participants

The speaker greets participants connecting virtually from Washington, D.C.

• The speaker greets everyone who is connecting virtually from Washington, D.C.

Questions from Audience

The speaker informs participants about how they can ask questions at the end of the panel.

• At the end of the panel, questions from the audience will be addressed.

• Participants can visit askac.org, choose our event on transatlantic relations with Turkey, and write their questions along with their name, title, and affiliation.

Ambassador James Jeffrey on Turkey's Election Results

In this section, Ambassador James Jeffrey discusses the recent Turkish election results and the factors that contributed to them.

Factors Contributing to Election Results

• The Kurdish vote split, with some predominantly Kurdish provinces voting for Erdogan.

• In other predominantly Kurdish provinces, between a third and two-fifths of the vote went to Erdogan.

• The balance between those who voted for change and those who chose the "devil they know."

• Turkey's approval of Sweden's NATO accession and sale of F-16s to Turkey.

Panel Discussion on Turkish Elections

This section covers a panel discussion on the recent Turkish elections, including analysis of the results and what they mean for Turkey's future.

Analysis of Election Results

• The opposition won in strongholds such as Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir but did not carry it by a big enough margin to offset support for Erdogan in other parts of the country.

• Erdogan was able to get enough of the Kurdish vote to make it competitive in some areas.

• The balance between those who voted for change and those who chose the "devil they know."

Q&A Session

• Questions from the audience were addressed at the end of the panel discussion.

• Viewers were directed to visit askac.org to submit questions along with their name, title, and affiliation.

Pain Tolerance vs Risk Tolerance

In this section, the speaker discusses how many Turks viewed the recent election as a race between pain tolerance and risk tolerance.

Turks' Perception of the Election

• Many Turks saw the election as a competition between pain tolerance and risk tolerance.

Importance of Turkey as an Ally

The speaker talks about Turkey's importance as an ally to the United States.

Benefits of Partnership with Turkey

• Turkey is an important ally to the United States.

Improving Bilateral Relations

The speaker discusses whether there is potential to strengthen bilateral relations between Turkey and the United States, and what steps should be taken on either side.

Strengthening Bilateral Relations

• There is a chance to improve relations between Turkey and the United States.

• Presidential relations were at a relative low point but Biden's call has helped fix that.

• Other than the US and Britain, no NATO country has done more than Turkey to make Russia's campaign in Ukraine difficult.

• However, there is also no NATO country that has done more to facilitate various things that Putin wants related to Ukraine than Turkey.

• Israel is being careful about condemning Russia because of their security concerns.

Security Concerns in Turkey

The speaker talks about security concerns in Turkey and its dependence on Russia for natural gas.

Security Concerns

• Turkey has security concerns as it is surrounded by Russia on its south, north-east, in the Caucasus and north, in the Black Sea.

• Turkey is dependent upon Russia for close to 50% of its natural gas.

• Turks mainly identify with Europe culturally but feel like they are being treated as second-class citizens by the EU and Washington.

Challenges in Dealing with Turkey

The speaker discusses challenges in dealing with Turkey due to Erdogan's personality and biases.

Challenges in Dealing with Turkey

• There is a strong anti-Western feeling among the Turkish population.

• Erdogan brings his own special personality and biases to the front.

• The United States thinks it can play by other rules because of its size, power, and uniqueness.

Challenges of Working with Turkey

The speaker discusses the challenges that arise when working with Turkey and its government.

Key Points:

• Working with Turkish officials can be difficult due to their tendency to change their minds frequently.

• Erdogan is the president of Turkey with a parliamentary majority behind him for the next five years, which will likely result in a continuation of his current policies.

• Erdogan has had an outsized role in foreign policy, shifting from a whiff of new Ottomanism to aligning more with nationalist elements within his own party.

• Despite economic headwinds, Erdogan's re-election is seen as an affirmation that Turkey's power projection capabilities should be confirmed.

AKP Foreign Policy in the First Decade

The problems of the first decade of AKP foreign policy came home to roost.

Erdogan's Shift in Alliances

• Erdogan shifted his set of alliances internally and became more aligned with nationalist elements within his own party.

• He accepted the UN's resolution of Cyprus, which was a rare compromise in frozen conflicts over the last 50 years.

• Erdogan mobilized and reformed many of Turkey's institutions to meet EU requirements, but they wanted nothing to do with Turkey as a member.

Erdogan's Power Projection Capabilities

• Turkey has been able to generate hard currency and political cloud through its export of drones, armored vehicles, training packages with commandos, precision munitions, etc.

• Erdogan looks at this and says he can't really be part of their club.

• This election result will be an affirmation that Turkey is generation of its own power projection capabilities and its own mixture of hard power and soft power should be confirmed.

US Body Language Towards Middle East

• Since the later Obama administration, very strongly in Trump is saying we're out of here in the Middle East.

• Israel, Saudis, and other countries have created the Erdogan we have today.

• Find some interests that overlap with ours and focus on that.

Long-Term Strategic Competition for Global Order

• The administration's October 2022 national security strategy states that they are engaged in a long-term strategic competition for the future of global order.

• They make a clear statement that it's all about whoever is on team America or contributes to team America to maintain the global order we will work with.

• Erdogan keeps trade lines open with Iran and China, even Venezuela, at the same time that he's doing lots of things to support NATO and its military operations and military structure.

• Erdogan invests 49% in other portfolios while being 51% aligned with the West.

Syrian Refugees in Turkey

This section discusses the issue of Syrian refugees in Turkey and President Erdogan's efforts to ensure their safety.

Erdogan's Goal

• Erdogan wants to ensure that a good portion of the 4 million Syrian refugees in Turkey can go back to northern Syria and remain free or secure from Assad's direct attack.

• Most Turks understand that some portion of those will stay.

Turkey's Positioning and Syria

This section discusses Turkey's positioning, particularly its reclassification capacity, and its relationship with Syria.

European Envy

• Many European countries are envious of Turkey's reclassification capacity that they've built in the last 10 years.

• Syria is one area where Turkey has positioned itself well.

Normalization with Assad

• The government has made hints that it's attempting to normalize with Assad.

• The opposition really made the Syrian refugee issue instrumental during the election.

• If successful, normalization would mean greater regional prosperity.

US-Turkey Relations

• Elements in the U.S. Congress will always try to undermine Turkish-US cooperation.

• Normalization requires diplomatic recognition which usually requires minimal diplomatic steps, therein lies an opportunity for the United States.

• After several years of waiting out President Erdogan, there is hope for better relations between US and Turkey if normalization occurs.

Settlement in the Caucasus

This section discusses President Erdogan's efforts to find a settlement in the Caucasus that re-normalizes relationships with Yerevan while strengthening Azerbaijan.

Zanghazur Corridor

• President Erdogan is going to want to put his stamp on Turkey in this last presidential term as a great leader who turned hard power into achievements of statecraft.

• The Zanghazur corridor or route may be involved.

• There are sticking points and obstacles between Turkish interests, Syrian interests, and normalization with Assad.

US-Turkey Relations

• If successful, what would that mean for U.S.-Turkey relations in Syria and broadly generally?

Turkey's Policies and Relations

This section discusses Turkey's policies and relations with other countries.

Reaching out to the West

• Erdogan tried to reach out to the West from 2008 to 2010.

• The US recognizes that they don't want a geostrategic win in the Middle East by Iran, Russia, and their partner Assad.

• On an operational level, the US says and does things that suggest they don't care about Assad or his regime.

EU Membership

• The EU made it clear that they did not want Turkey as a member of the EU.

• They wanted nothing to do with Turkey as a member of the EU.

Cyprus Resolution

• Erdogan accepted the UN's resolution for Cyprus.

• There was a bad moment with the Barack Obama administration when Obama went off to Tehran to do a deal in early 2010 with the Iranians on nuclear enrichment.

Syria

This section discusses US policies on Syria.

US Policies on Syria

• There are at least two and possibly three separate U.S. policies on Syria.

• The impact of these policies is complicated because of conflicting interests.

Importance of Staying in Northeast Syria

• The Islamic State is still a real threat, so staying in northeast Syria is important.

• The US has responsibilities to the SDF and the people of the region.

• After having pulled out of Afghanistan, pulling out of another place in abandoning allies we fought with is just not going to look very good.

Turkey's Role in Syria

• The US needs to work with Turkey because they recognize that they cannot continue the 2019 ceasefire with Turkey and Nazi Syria.

• It's hard to say what the Turks would do or not do in Syria that would really irritate Washington.

Friction in Syria

• There is an area of real friction in Syria between Iran, Russia, and their partner Assad.

• The most recent example of us not showing care was sponsoring one or another degree.

US Foreign Policy in the Middle East

This section discusses the US foreign policy in the Middle East and how it has changed over time.

Changes in US Foreign Policy

• The later Obama administration and Trump have both expressed a desire to withdraw from the Middle East.

• The current administration is following its October 2022 national security strategy.

Normalization with Assad and Turkey

This section discusses normalization with Assad and Turkey, as well as the leverage game going on in Syria between various players.

Normalization with Assad

• Normalization with Assad does not mean going back to pre-war relations, but rather reestablishing communication as part of a leverage game.

• All players talking to Assad are doing so to ensure they have influence over what develops next.

• Turkey cannot go back to normal with Assad due to specific problems that need to be handled first.

Leverage Game in Syria

• There is a leverage game going on in Syria between Iran, Russia, the United States, Turkey, and Arab countries.

• Players are making rational decisions based on their size, capabilities, and experiences.

Turkey's Goals for Safe Zone Concept

This section discusses what Turkey needs from a policy perspective out of Assad regarding its safe zone concept.

Adana Plus Plus Agreement

• What Turkey needs ultimately from a policy perspective out of Assad is what is referred to as a Dana plus plus.

• Turkey's ultimate goal with the safe zone concept is Adana plus plus, which means more than just the old Adana agreement.

YPG Control

• Nobody in Turkey wants the YPG in control of large portions of the border.

• The Adana agreement gave Turkey a right of hot pursuit against PKK forces out of Turkey into northern Syria.

Cooperation

• Find interests that overlap with ours and focus on that.

• Even if Turkey may reduce its forces, it needs an agreement that its forces can conduct operations to a greater depth and that the Syrian government will not have YPG in charge in that zone or if they become part of the Syrian Arab Army if they're reintegrated.

Syrian Makhabarat and Greek-Turkish Relations

The speaker discusses the importance of the Syrian Makhabarat not being the dominant security presence in a certain area. They also talk about the improved relations between Greece and Turkey, which is quite exceptional in the industry.

Syrian Makhabarat

• The Syrian Makhabarat's intelligence forces and army should not be the dominant security presence in a certain area.

Greek-Turkish Relations

• Greece and Turkey have improved their relations substantially.

• There has been a big shift in rhetoric on both sides after an earthquake earlier this year.

• Turks are not obsessed with Greece, unlike Greeks who have an obsession with Turkey as part of their foreign policy.

• Sakarya is important for Turkey whether gas goes to domestic market or for export because it potentially frees up more gas.

Agreements Made Concessions to Turkey

The speaker talks about agreements made by various European countries, Japan, and the United States that made concessions to Turkey.

Agreements Made Concessions to Turkey

• Various European countries, Japan, and the United States made concessions to Turkey through agreements.

• Most importantly, islands were neutralized and demilitarized in Gian with all kinds of rights for Turkish minority, Turkish military presence on island, and ban on anosis (union with Greece) for all institutions.

Southern Gas Corridor

The speaker briefly mentions southern gas corridor going onto additional markets.

Southern Gas Corridor

• Mention of southern gas corridor going onto additional markets.

Diversified Market

The speaker talks about Turkey's diversified market.

Turkey's diversified gas sources

• Turkey is going to keep up that diversified gas sources.

• New infrastructure projects are also being developed.

Turkish Relations with Greece and Cyprus

The speaker discusses the conflict between Turkey, Greece, and Cyprus.

Conflict over Cyprus

• After invading Cyprus, Turkey launched another offensive and seized a third of the island.

• This led to years of bad U.S. relations with Turkey.

• Gas rights in the eastern Mediterranean around Cyprus are a significant interest at stake.

Conflict over Greek airspace

• Turkish planes overfly Greek airspace and actual Greek dirt.

• President Erdogan has talked about missiles ringing on Athens.

• Rhetoric from Greece against Turkey is due to their obsession with them.

Stability in electricity supply

• Stable electricity supply is important for the region, which many places lack.

• Unlike other countries in the region, Turkey has reliable electricity.

Conflicts Between Greece and Turkey

The speaker discusses conflicts between Greece and Turkey.

No significant interests at stake

• There are no really significant interests at stake except for gas rights in the eastern Mediterranean around Cyprus.

Rhetorical political ideological issues

• Most of these issues are just rhetorical political ideological issues.

Optimistic Note on Political Stability

The speaker provides an optimistic note on political stability in relation to Turkish politics.

Erdogan and Taka's political stability

• Erdogan and Taka both have a long leash politically.

• They both have some projected stability.

• They have some time to craft a deal that's acceptable to both sides should they choose to pursue it.

Pessimistic Note on Washington Problem

The speaker provides a pessimistic note on the conflict between Turkey, Greece, and Cyprus.

Conflict is a Washington problem

• The problem in many ways is a Washington problem.

• A lot of European countries are probably very envious at Turkey's recastification capacity that they've built in the last 10 years looking at the situation now.

Compromise needed

• A compromise is needed but there is no incentive to pursue it right now.

Islands in the Aegean and Mediterranean

The speaker discusses islands in the Aegean and Mediterranean.

Big islands get big eZs and territorial waters

• Big islands get big eZs and territorial waters while little islands get little ones.

Freedom of navigation for Turkey

• A line can be drawn that will actually give the Turks freedom of navigation as they see fit but not everything they want.

US National Interests

The speaker discusses how the evaluation of US national interests is not relevant to the topic at hand.

Talking to Assad

• The speaker suggests that talking to Assad could potentially facilitate certain things.

• The Arabs make a point that serious talks with Russia about a Syrian settlement stopped when the new administration came in.