Post election transatlantic relations with Turkey

Introduction

The speaker introduces the topic of Turkey's elections and the importance of discussing it.

Speaker Introduction

• The speaker introduces the topic of Turkey's elections and its significance in the region.

• Despite all, Turkey remains an important NATO ally.

Discussion Points

The speaker discusses some key points that need to be addressed regarding Turkey's approval of Sweden's NATO accession and sale of F-16s to Turkey.

Key Points

• President Biden noted two sticking points on the current agenda to be addressed - Turkey's approval of Sweden's NATO accession and sale of F-16s to Turkey.

• An excellent panel is hosted today to discuss these subjects and what is next.

Panel Introduction

The speaker introduces a distinguished panel who will discuss various aspects related to Turkey's elections.

Panel Introduction

• A distinguished panel is introduced, including Ambassador to Iraq and Turkey, special envoy to the Global Coalition, non-Rez senior fellow at Atlantic Council in Turkey, and Professor Brenda Schaefer, non-Rez senior fellow at Atlantic Council's Global Energy Center.

Q&A Session

The speaker invites questions from the audience for the panelists.

Q&A Session

• Audience members are invited to ask questions by typing them in as soon as they feel the need. Anonymous questions will not be answered.

Overview of the Election Results

The election held on May 14 and May 28 resulted in Adon's coalition securing a majority in parliament, allowing them to govern Turkey for the next five years.

• Despite economic challenges and widespread discontent, Adon's coalition secured a majority in parliament.

• This victory allows Adon's coalition to govern Turkey for the next five years.

Analysis of the Electorate

The Turkish electorate is primarily center-right, with many voters considering nationalism as an important factor.

• The Turkish electorate is primarily center-right, with nationalist parties making up about 25% of the vote.

• Many AKP voters are also nationalists or business conservatives.

• Even opposition party Jehipassade has a fair number of nationalist voters.

Challenges Faced by Opposition Party

The opposition party faced difficulties attracting conservative voters without the incumbent advantages enjoyed by Erdogan's Alliance.

• Attracting conservative voters was key to winning the election.

• Opposition party struggled to attract these voters without incumbent advantages enjoyed by Erdogan's Alliance.

US-Turkey Relations

US-Turkey relations have come under increasing strain during Adon's time in power due to disagreements over Syria and Turkey's S400 purchase.

• US-Turkey relations have become strained during Adon's time in power.

• Disagreements over Syria and Turkey's S400 purchase have contributed to this strain.

• Despite this strain, Turkey remains an important NATO ally.

New Voters

Five million new voters were added to the voter pool since 2018, which could have impacted the election results.

• Five million new voters were added to the voter pool since 2018.

• The impact of these new voters on the election results was unknown.

Turkey's Role in International Relations

Turkey has played a crucial role in international relations, including supporting Ukraine and ensuring success of grain corridor and prison exchanges.

• Turkey's support has been crucial to the defense of Ukraine.

• Turkey's leverage with Russia has helped ensure the success of the grain corridor and prison exchanges.

Ambassador James Jeffrey on Turkish Elections

In this section, Ambassador James Jeffrey discusses his thoughts on the Turkish electorate and what factors drove their vote in the recent election.

Factors Driving the Vote

• The conservative electorate opted for a known quantity in this election due to memories of unstable coalition governments in the past.

• Erdogan's unorthodox economic policies have cost many Turks in the pocketbook, but security concerns primarily related to the PKK were more important to voters.

• Turkey is primarily a center-right electorate with nationalism being a consideration for many voters.

Erich C. Ferrari on Turkish Elections

In this section, Erich C. Ferrari discusses how foreign policy played a role in the campaign and election.

Role of Foreign Policy

• The opposition's platform only had two pages out of dozens dedicated to foreign policy.

• Voters did not know what they were getting with the incoming coalition and risk tolerance was low due to memories of negative experiences with coalition governments in the past.

Professor Brenda Shaffer on Turkish Elections

In this section, Professor Brenda Shaffer provides additional insights into how pocketbook issues do not dominate elections everywhere.

Pocketbook Issues vs Security Concerns

• Pocketbook issues do not dominate elections everywhere as identity politics and other metrics can be more important.

• Security concerns related to real threats such as the PKK were more important to Turkish voters than economic concerns.

Analysis of Turkey's Election and Gas Exports to Europe

In this transcript, the speakers discuss Turkey's recent election and its impact on the country's political landscape. They also talk about Turkey's role in bringing non-Russian pipeline gas to Europe through the Southern Gas Corridor.

The Election and Its Implications

• The opposition faced a difficult challenge in attracting conservative voters without the incumbent advantages that Erdogan's Alliance had.

• Deals made with Turkish diplomats can be unpredictable due to Erdogan's tendency to use them as an opportunity to attack other countries.

• This unpredictability makes people nervous about recommending engagement with Turkey.

Gas Exports to Europe

• Turkey has played a prominent role in bringing non-Russian pipeline gas to Europe through the Southern Gas Corridor.

• Plans are being made to extend the gas into Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, and their neighbors, reaching entirely new markets in Europe.

• The US has played an important strategic role in making sure that Azerbaijan is linked to world markets through projects in Turkey. However, a directive from the White House prohibits US government agencies from promoting fossil fuel projects, including natural gas.

• Both the EU and US are not engaging in public finance for natural gas at present. However, there is wiggle room for expansion of projects and infrastructure.

Introduction

The speaker thanks Brenda for the introduction.

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Erdogan's Foreign Policy

In this section, the speakers discuss Erdogan's foreign policy and how it has evolved over time. They also talk about his relationships with other countries and organizations.

The Swedish Counter-Terror Legislation

• Sweden has an opportunity to take strong anti-PKK steps due to the Swedish counter-terror legislation that comes into full effect in June 2023.

• If Sweden takes these steps, Turkey may put them on the path to accession, which could lead to progress on F-16s.

Erdogan's Shifting Alliances

• Erdogan previously saw himself as instrumentalizing the Muslim Brotherhood movement throughout the region as a possible leader of the Middle East, but this did not work out well.

• He shifted significantly in 2008 and 2009 towards a more IMF model for Turkish development, which has worked.

• He was able to flip and now has a great relationship with Herzog working on Egypt.

Regional Reactions to Erdogan's Reelection

• Regional reactions to Erdogan's reelection were well received in Africa and Central Asia, parts of the Middle East.

Transactionalism vs Cooperation

• The speakers discuss whether cooperation or transactionalism is more likely given Erdogan's foreign policy approach.

• The Kylitz-Darolulet opposition firmly realigned with NATO and made sure that their foreign policy calibration was more Atlantisist than multi-axial like Erdogan's approach.

Turkey's Energy Infrastructure Development

In this section, the speaker discusses Turkey's energy infrastructure development and how it has been personalized under Erdogan's leadership.

Personalized Foreign Policy

• Erdogan has taken foreign relations from an institutional context to a highly personalized one.

• His relationships with Putin, the President of Azerbaijan, Shikhtami, and Katar have been cornerstones of his foreign policy.

Importance of Government in Infrastructure Projects

• The speed of development in the industry from discovery to operations is exceptional and requires government involvement.

• Sakarya and Tamar show how important it is for governments to be involved in infrastructure projects.

Cabinet Formation

• Ibrahim Collin will stay in his role as presidential spokesman/national security advisor equivalent. Hakan Fidon will stay in charge as the minister responsible for intelligence and meet the Mali-istikhbarat-Teshkilat. Mehmet Chimshikh for economy is also likely to remain in his position.

Turkey's Gas Discovery

In this section, the speaker talks about Turkey's gas discovery and its significance for Turkey's import dependency and potentially for Europe.

Speed of Development

• The field reportedly holds 710 BCM of gas according to Turkish officials.

• The discovery was made just three years ago, which is quite exceptional in the industry from discovery to operations.

Export Potential

• Some of that gas can be or will be exported according to Turkish officials.

Impact on Turkey's Import Dependency

• The discovery is significant for Turkey's import dependency, and if Turkey uses more gas domestically, it could potentially free up more gas.

Comparison to Other Fields

• The Sakarya field in Turkey is similar to the Tamar field in Israel, where the government worked with investing companies to speed up the project when there was a disruption of Egyptian gas to Israel.

Erdogan's Presidential Term

In this section, the speaker discusses Erdogan's presidential term and how it relates to Turkey's energy infrastructure development.

Diversified Market

• This will be Erdogan's last presidential term barring something unforeseen.

• Turkey has a diversified market and reliable electricity compared to other places in the region.

Infrastructure Development

• There will likely be a lot of infrastructure development in the energy sector during Erdogan's next term, including storage, gas, and electricity.

Impact on LNG Imports

• The Sakarya field could mean less LNG imports than over the past decades for Turkey.

Gas Pipelines

The speaker believes that gas pipelines are a good example of where the US can work with other countries to achieve mutual interests.

Importance of Gas Pipelines

• Gas pipelines are an area where the US can work with other countries to achieve mutual interests.

Southern Gas Corridor

The speaker discusses the southern gas corridor and how it will have additional players on each end, which could be beneficial for both supply and consumer sides.

Additional Players in Southern Gas Corridor

• The southern gas corridor will have additional players on each end, which could be beneficial for both supply and consumer sides.

Problems Generated by Conflict

The speaker talks about the problems generated by conflict, including refugees, threats from ISIS, Iranian involvement, and Israeli conflicts over Syria.

Problems Generated by Conflict

• Conflicts generate problems such as refugees, threats from ISIS, Iranian involvement, and Israeli conflicts over Syria.

Talking to Assad

The speaker discusses how talking to Assad could potentially facilitate integrating a third of the country back under control of the US and Turkey.

Integrating Third of Country Back Under Control

• Talking to Assad could potentially facilitate integrating a third of the country back under control of the US and Turkey.

• There are potentially facilitated issues that could arise from talking to Assad because we stopped talking seriously to Russians about Syrian settlement when this new administration came in.

Opaque Policy on Syria

The speaker talks about how the administration's policy on Syria is opaque and there are several different contending views.

Opaque Policy on Syria

• The administration's policy on Syria is opaque and there are several different contending views.

F-16 and Sweden Thing

The speaker discusses a test case involving F-16s and Sweden, which could be impacted by the current administration's policies.

Test Case with F-16s and Sweden

• A test case involving F-16s and Sweden could be impacted by the current administration's policies.

Turkey's Concerns in Northern Syria

The speaker talks about Turkey's concerns in northern Syria, including refugees, security concerns, and threats from ISIS.

Turkey's Concerns in Northern Syria

• Turkey has concerns regarding refugees, security issues, and threats from ISIS in northern Syria.

• Erdogan will not pull his troops out unless these concerns are addressed.

Resettling Refugees

The speaker discusses the importance of resettling refugees in a humane way.

Resettling Refugees

• It is important to resettle refugees in a humane way.

• Both Erdogan and Chavusolu made it clear that they were not going to push these people back.

Security Concerns in Northern Syria

The speaker talks about security concerns in northern Syria, including the presence of the SDF and its roots in the PKK.

Security Concerns in Northern Syria

• There are security concerns in northern Syria, including the presence of the SDF and its roots in the PKK.

• Leaving could create more friction with Turkey.

Addressing Turkey's Concerns

The speaker discusses how addressing Turkey's concerns is necessary for pulling troops out of northern Syria.

Addressing Turkey's Concerns

• Addressing Turkey's concerns is necessary for pulling troops out of northern Syria.

Flipping on Issues

The speaker talks about Erdogan's ability to flip on issues and how it could impact negotiations with Assad.

Erdogan's Ability to Flip on Issues

• Erdogan has shown an ability to flip on issues, which could impact negotiations with Assad.

Relationship with Herzog and Egypt

The speaker talks about someone's great relationship with Herzog working on Egypt.

Key Points:

• The speaker mentions that someone has a great relationship with Herzog.

• They are working together on Egypt.

Clear message

The speaker talks about a clear message that is being made explicit.

Key Points:

• The speaker mentions that there is a clear message being made explicit.

• No further details are provided.

Heart of Congress

The speaker talks about the heart of Congress.

Key Points:

• The speaker mentions the heart of Congress.

• No further details are provided.

Team America vs Autocracy

The speaker discusses how it's all about whoever is on team America or contributes to team America to maintain the global order we will work with.

Key Points:

• Speaker explains how it's all about whoever is on team America or contributes to team America to maintain the global order we will work with.

• Three different ways are used to make it clear not to listen to democracy versus autocracy because they're going to kill, assassinate, murder, and oppress if they do.

Return of Syrian services

Turkey needs guarantees before returning Syria's electricity services, educational services, postal services etc.

Key Points:

• In an ultimate deal, Syria's electricity services, educational services, postal services would return but Turkey needs some guarantee that the Syrians it's telling to go back are not going into the jackboot of Assad's thugs.

Working with Turkey

Speaker suggests working with Turkey in various areas where interests overlap.

Key Points:

• Speaker suggests working with Turkey in the various areas where interests overlap.

• No further details are provided.

Military operation in Syria

The speaker thinks it's likely that Turkey will need one more military operation in Syria.

Key Points:

• Speaker thinks it's actually likely that Turkey will need one more military operation in Syria.

• It blooded Assad's forces significantly in 2020.

Operation Spring Shield

The speaker talks about Operation Spring Shield and how they killed Hizbullah, Lebanese Hizbullah that were there.

Key Points:

• They killed Hizbullah, Lebanese Hizbullah that were there during Operation Spring Shield.

• They also killed Iranian militias IRGC and a number of Assad's forces.

Multifaceted Hearts

The speaker talks about hearts being multifaceted.

Key Points:

• Hearts are multifaceted.

• In our hearts is the heart of the administration which has two or three different streams.

Wave of normalization

Assad sort of thinks with this wave of quote normalization moving that he has the upper hand and if he just waits Erdogan out everyone's going to have to scoot across the border with this tail between his legs and that Assad will get the whole kit in the capital.

Key Points:

• Assad sort of thinks with this wave of quote normalization moving that he has the upper hand.

• If he just waits Erdogan out everyone's going to have to scoot across the border with this tail between his legs and that Assad will get the whole kit in the capital.

Negotiation over Sedona Plus Plus

Speaker thinks that once Turkey has proven they can still hurt Syria, a serious negotiation over the Sedona Plus Plus can take place.

Key Points:

• Once Turkey has proven they can still hurt Syria, a serious negotiation over the Sedona Plus Plus can take place.

• There are many different views and reactions to everyone's re-election.

Turkish-Israel Rapprochement

The speaker talks about how the Turkish-Israel rapprochement survived two important hurdles.

Key Points:

• The Turkish-Israel rapprochement survived two important hurdles.

• One was elections in Israel and then elections in Turkey.

Natural Gas Delivery

Turkey began delivering natural gas from its recently discovered black seed natural gas field.

Key Points:

• In April, Turkey began delivering natural gas from its recently discovered black seed natural gas field.

• The field holds reportedly 710 BCM of gas according to the Turks.

Realistic Expectations for Turkish-US Cooperation

The speakers discuss the challenges facing Turkish-US cooperation, including elements in the US Congress that may try to undermine it. They also touch on Turkey's efforts to normalize relations with Syria and the potential impact on US-Turkey relations.

Realistic Expectations for Turkish-US Cooperation

• Realistic expectations are important given elements in the US Congress that will always try to undermine Turkish-US cooperation.

• Efforts by Turkey to normalize relations with Syria have been made, but it is unclear how successful they will be.

• Normalization requires diplomatic recognition, which usually involves minimal diplomatic steps. However, there are significant obstacles between Turkish and Syrian interests.

• If normalization were successful, it could have an impact on US-Turkey relations in Syria and more broadly.

Political Tensions Between Greece and Turkey

The speakers discuss political tensions between Greece and Turkey and the practical benefits of being engaged in this conflict.

Political Tensions Between Greece and Turkey

• There are practical benefits for Greece from being engaged in a conflict with Turkey, but until there is a forcing function that makes it clear that now is the time to settle this issue, Greece is unlikely to make any extra efforts to resolve it.

Domestic Lobby Interests Affecting US Politics

The speakers discuss domestic lobby interests affecting US politics.

Domestic Lobby Interests Affecting US Politics

• Some members of Congress do not look at Turkey-US relations from the lens of what is good for the United States, but rather from a more domestic lobby interest.

Turkey-China Relations

The speakers discuss Turkey's relationship with China and its potential impact on US-Turkey relations.

Turkey-China Relations

• Turkey and China have had more frequent interactions over the past decade than expected, given that they are strategic competitors in Central Asia.

• If Turkey approves Sweden by the Vilnius summit, it could create momentum necessary to get F16s across the line. However, some

I understand the task. Let's get started.

Integrating a Third of the Country Back

In this section, the speaker discusses how to integrate a third of the country back in that year, which is under the control of the US, Turkey, and their allies.

Integrating a Third of the Country Back

• The speaker talks about how to integrate a third of the country back in that year.

• The process involves working with the US, Turkey, and their allies who have control over that part of the country.

Conclusion

In this section, the speaker concludes their talk.

Thank You

• The speaker thanks their audience for listening to their talk.