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ICT Mentorship 2023 - October 22, 2023 Market Review
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ICT Mentorship 2023 - October 22, 2023 Market Review

New Section

The speaker greets the audience and asks for confirmation that they can be heard and that the weekly dollar index chart is visible.

Confirmation of Audio and Chart Visibility

  • The speaker requests confirmation on Twitter if the audience can hear them and see the weekly dollar index chart.

New Section

The speaker mentions that they will be discussing a chart.

Discussion of Chart

  • The speaker states that they will be discussing a chart.

New Section

The speaker waits for confirmation from the audience regarding audio clarity.

Confirmation of Audio Clarity

  • The speaker waits to receive feedback from the audience on Twitter regarding audio clarity.

New Section

The speaker acknowledges a comment from Alfredo Tavor and mentions not keeping the audience for too long due to personal commitments.

Acknowledgment and Time Limit

  • The speaker thanks Alfredo Tavor for their comment.
  • They mention having personal commitments and assure the audience that they won't take up too much time.

New Section

The speaker discusses their trading approach from last week, mentioning specific criteria for taking trades based on daily chart movements.

Trading Approach Last Week

  • The speaker shares their approach from last week, stating that they were only interested in trades if there was a move on the daily chart with a close above a specific level.
  • They mention not finding any suitable trades throughout Monday to Thursday due to no significant movement on the daily chart.
  • The speaker expresses contentment with not taking any trades if the criteria were not met.

New Section

The speaker discusses their interest in the NASDAQ and potential areas of support.

Interest in NASDAQ and Support Levels

  • The speaker mentions being interested in seeing the NASDAQ try to get above a certain level.
  • They highlight a specific area as a potential support level if there is a drop down to revisit it.
  • The speaker emphasizes that they are trying not to pick a top on the dollar index due to global events, but they believe it may still go higher.

New Section

The speaker talks about convergence between two discount arrays and mentions revisiting levels on the daily chart.

Convergence and Revisiting Levels

  • The speaker explains the concept of convergence between two discount arrays.
  • They mention revisiting levels on the daily chart and refer to an inefficiency with consequent encroachment of a Wick.

New Section

The speaker discusses fair value Gap and potential shorts forming in Euro and cable.

Fair Value Gap and Potential Shorts

  • The speaker refers to a fair value Gap on the daily chart and mentions that going down into that level does not mean they are long on the dollar index.
  • They suggest listening to their previous live stream for more details on this topic.

New Section

The speaker analyzes candlestick patterns from last week, highlighting an up closed candle as a fair value Gap.

Candlestick Patterns Analysis

  • The speaker points out that last week, there was a lot of time spent in a fair value Gap between the high and low of certain candles.
  • They explain that an up closed candle indicates a bissy and highlight the consequent encroachment of the blue shaded area.

New Section

The speaker mentions being cautious throughout last week and finally finding something worth taking on Friday.

Caution and Finding Trade Opportunity

  • The speaker mentions exercising caution throughout last week and being rewarded for it due to limited movement.
  • They state that they found a trade opportunity on Friday after waiting for the right conditions.

New Section

The speaker quickly goes through the four-hour chart before the market opens.

Four-Hour Chart Analysis

  • The speaker briefly discusses the daily imbalance efficiency on the four-hour chart.
  • They mention how most candles respected halfway or consequent encroachment of a blue shaded area.

New Section

The speaker acknowledges uncertainty about future price movements due to it being Sunday.

Uncertainty on Sunday

  • The speaker admits not knowing how to predict the opening price for the new week as Sundays are unpredictable.
  • They mention waiting like everyone else to determine market behavior based on the opening price.

Euro Dollar Analysis

The Euro Dollar failed to make a lower low as the dollar made a higher high, indicating divergence. This divergence served as a catalyst for the Euro to move slightly higher. However, it later went down and took the sell side out below a certain level but did not close below it.

  • The Euro Dollar showed divergence with the dollar, leading to a slight upward movement.
  • The sell side was taken out below a certain level, but there was no close below it.

Market Sentiment and Gap Openings

The speaker discusses their expectations for gap openings in various markets and how it would impact market sentiment. They mention wanting to see a gap lower opening on NASDAQ, E-mini S&P, and Dow futures. They also discuss the possibility of a gap higher opening on the dollar.

  • The speaker wants to see gap lower openings on NASDAQ, E-mini S&P, and Dow futures.
  • They anticipate a potential gap higher opening on the dollar.
  • These gap openings would support their trading strategy and market sentiment analysis.

Gap Risk and Weekend Trading

The speaker discusses their approach to trading over weekends due to gap risk. They mention not carrying any positions over the weekend due to potential market developments that may occur during that time.

  • The speaker avoids carrying positions over weekends due to gap risk.
  • They mention being unaware of any significant overseas events at that time.
  • There is concern about geopolitical tensions in the Middle East impacting market sentiment.

Potential Impact of Geopolitical Events

The speaker mentions that any significant events happening in the Middle East could have an adverse impact on market sentiment. They anticipate that any rally in risk assets, such as the Euro Dollar or stock indices, would be short-lived and met with more selling.

  • Geopolitical events in the Middle East are a cause for concern and may impact market sentiment.
  • The speaker expects any rally in risk assets to be short-lived and followed by further selling.

Dollar Index Analysis

The speaker discusses the importance of the Dollar Index showing more movement and not remaining consolidated within a range. They explain how consolidation allows other currency pairs, not directly linked to the dollar, to move freely based on interest rate differentials.

  • The speaker emphasizes the need for the Dollar Index to show more movement instead of consolidation.
  • Consolidation allows non-dollar currency pairs to have exaggerated moves based on interest rate differentials.

Focus on Exotic Currency Pairs

The speaker advises Forex traders to focus on exotic currency pairs that do not involve the dollar when the Dollar Index is consolidating. They explain that analyzing interest rate differentials between these pairs can provide insights into potential trading opportunities.

  • When the Dollar Index is consolidating, Forex traders should focus on exotic currency pairs without involving the dollar.
  • Analyzing interest rate differentials between these pairs can help identify potential trading opportunities.

Importance of Market Conditions for Forex Trading

The speaker reminds Forex traders about considering market conditions when trading dollar-based currencies. They suggest looking at exotic crosses and paying attention to strength/weakness relationships between currencies rather than focusing solely on major currency pairs during consolidation periods.

  • During dollar consolidation, attention should shift from major currency pairs to exotic crosses without involving the dollar.
  • Strength/weakness relationships between currencies should be considered for potential trading opportunities.

Euro Dollar Weekly Chart Analysis

The speaker analyzes the weekly chart of the Euro Dollar and discusses the significance of an inside week. They explain that an inside week indicates a potential large move in the near future, usually within the next two candles.

  • The Euro Dollar's weekly chart shows an inside week, indicating a potential large move in the near future.
  • An inside week suggests that the high is lower than the previous week's high and the low is higher than the previous week's low.

Anticipating Large Weekly Range

The speaker anticipates a large range candle on the Euro Dollar's weekly chart. They mention that while it may not happen immediately, it typically occurs within two time frames after an inside week.

  • A large range candle is expected on the Euro Dollar's weekly chart.
  • It may occur within two time frames after an inside week.

Understanding Inside Candles/Ranges

The speaker explains that an inside candle or range does not provide directional information but indicates the magnitude of a potential move. They emphasize that traders still need to determine whether they are bullish or bearish based on other factors.

  • An inside candle or range indicates the magnitude of a potential move but not its direction.
  • Traders need to consider other factors to determine their bullish or bearish stance.

Anticipating Market Moves

The speaker discusses the importance of balancing expectations in the market and anticipating potential large range moves. They mention that if the anticipated move doesn't happen, they switch to scalping.

Anticipating Candle Range Expansion

  • It is important to anticipate the very next candle to be a large range expansion.
  • If this doesn't occur, the speaker switches to scalping.

Favoring Large Range Moves

  • The speaker mentions that they would prefer a large range move on the weekly chart, which would create one-sidedness on the daily chart.
  • They expect more directional trading between Monday's trading and Friday's close based on this context.

Assessing Market Open

  • The speaker states that they will assess what the market is doing at the open to determine their strategy going into London and New York sessions.
  • They express a preference for a gap lower opening followed by an upward fill before moving lower.

Analyzing Daily Chart

The speaker analyzes a daily chart and shares their observations about price action and their preferred scenario.

Price Action Analysis

  • The daily chart shows a range-bound market with support found in certain candles.
  • The speaker mentions not being overly bullish and expresses a preference for seeing willingness to gap lower, fill it, and then move lower again.

Confidence in Weakness

  • If the market follows their preferred scenario, it would give them confidence in anticipating further weakness.
  • However, they clarify that this doesn't mean they will necessarily trade on Monday but rather supports their expectation from last week when they shorted NQ.

Alternative Scenario

  • In case of a gap higher followed by a move down, the speaker expects an attempt to trade up into a specific area before resuming weakness.
  • They clarify that they still favor shorts and are open to being proven incorrect.

Analyzing 4-Hour Chart

The speaker analyzes a 4-hour chart and discusses the market conditions and their advice for new traders.

Market Conditions

  • The speaker describes the market as not symmetrical, with price swings running for clear liquidity inefficiencies.
  • They mention that there is a lot of back-and-forth price action, which can be traded but advise new traders to avoid such conditions.

Advice for New Traders

  • New traders should avoid risking anything in these types of market conditions.
  • The speaker warns about potential losses due to false moves, retracements, or account drawdowns.
  • They emphasize the importance of experience in navigating such market conditions.

Analyzing 60-Minute Chart

The speaker analyzes a 60-minute chart and shares their observations about price action and their preferred scenario.

Ugly Price Action

  • The speaker expresses dissatisfaction with the price action on the 60-minute chart.
  • They highlight gaps and liquidity areas as sell-side opportunities.

Preferred Scenario

  • The speaker would like to see an opening gap lower, followed by filling the gap and trading for the sell side.
  • This scenario is what they hope to observe going into Monday's trading session.

Euro Cable or Pound Dollar Analysis

The speaker briefly mentions their analysis of Euro Cable or Pound Dollar on a weekly chart without providing specific details.

New Section

In this section, the speaker discusses the daily chart for Pound Dollar and mentions the importance of a specific level acting as an inversion fair value gap. They also mention that they would prefer to trade the Euro over Cable for the week.

Pound Dollar Daily Chart

  • The speaker wants to see Pound Dollar get below a certain level and treat it as resistance before moving lower towards weekly objectives.
  • They mention that while they have mentioned their analysis and directional preference, they would not personally trade Cable due to its current price action.
  • The speaker suggests that if the dollar index were to resume going higher, they might consider trading the Euro instead of Cable.
  • They highlight that trading Cable has been challenging due to its sloppy and unpredictable price action.

New Section

In this section, the speaker focuses on index futures and explains how price actions are similar across different asset classes. They discuss a target shift in CLY (unknown asset) and analyze sell-side opportunities.

Index Futures Analysis

  • The speaker refers to a target shift in CLY that was previously discussed months ago.
  • They mention a sell-off last week and identify relative equal lows as potential sell-side levels.
  • The speaker highlights a range with a midpoint level they would like to see traded down into.
  • They note that there seems to be a sense of urgency for price to move lower based on recent price action.
  • The speaker analyzes candlestick patterns and inefficiencies in order to determine potential entry points for trades.

New Section

In this section, the speaker discusses NASDAQ's 4-hour chart, including bearish order blocks and market maker sell models. They also briefly mention gold but state that they will provide more commentary on it later.

NASDAQ 4-hour Chart Analysis

  • The speaker identifies a bearish order block and explains how it indicates sell-side pressure.
  • They mention the importance of price respecting certain levels, such as the high, low, and higher high.
  • The speaker notes a sell-off in NASDAQ on Friday and expects it to continue based on the market maker sell model.
  • They briefly mention gold but state that they will provide more commentary on it in a future session.

New Section

In this section, the speaker discusses weekly objectives for NASDAQ and mentions previous excitement about its upward movement. They also refer to buy balance, sell-side efficiency, and sell-side pressure.

NASDAQ Weekly Objectives

  • The speaker refers to their previously mentioned quarterly shift objective for NASDAQ.
  • They acknowledge that previous expectations of continued upward movement were proven wrong by recent price action.
  • The speaker highlights buy balance, sell-side efficiency, and sell-side pressure as factors influencing their analysis.

This summary is based solely on the provided transcript.

New Section

The speaker discusses the market movement and potential trading strategies based on the opening gap.

Market Movement and Trading Strategies

  • The speaker mentions that the market fell short of the upper quadrant it could have spiked to, just outside the fair value area.
  • They express a preference for the market to open below a specific blue line, indicating a sell-side bias.
  • Opening below this line would provide an opportunity to trade down into liquidity levels.
  • The speaker reflects on their own experience of missing out on profitable exits by not holding over the weekend.
  • They analyze a 4-hour chart and identify different stages of consolidation, accumulation, and distribution in the market.
  • The speaker notes that despite equal lows in certain areas, they are more interested in liquidity levels for future price movements.
  • They mention favoring a 15-minute timeframe for analysis.

New Section

The speaker evaluates how the market opens and shares their thoughts on potential future movements based on current events.

Evaluating Market Open and Future Movements

  • The speaker observes a slight gap higher in the market opening, which is not what they expected.
  • They mention managing trades by closing positions or trailing stop losses tightly based on market conditions.
  • The speaker emphasizes that there is nothing significantly troubling or worrisome causing excitement in the market at present.
  • They discuss how geopolitical events can impact markets but note no new information or acceleration has been observed yet.
  • The speaker expresses interest in seeing if the market can shake off its opening gap and continue downwards for selling opportunities.
  • Depending on whether there is escalation or deescalation of conflicts, they anticipate either further downward movement or a potential rebound towards previous levels.

New Section

The speaker highlights considerations when trading during times of geopolitical events and the potential impact on market conditions.

Trading During Geopolitical Events

  • The speaker acknowledges that events related to war or violence can significantly affect market conditions.
  • They differentiate between these types of events and other factors like interest rates or economic indicators.
  • The speaker mentions being cautious about unexpected actions during such events and the need to consider underlying risks.
  • They discuss how unexpected events can occur at any time, even outside regular trading hours.

New Section

In this section, the speaker discusses their trading strategy and recent market movements.

Trading Strategy and Recent Market Movements

  • The speaker analyzes a candlestick chart and identifies a bearish breaker pattern.
  • They mention that they still believe their objective of selling is viable.
  • The opening price was uneventful, but the speaker entered two trades when the price went up and hit their target.
  • They added more to their position but ultimately got stopped out with a trailed stop loss.
  • The speaker expected a big sell-off on Friday but it didn't happen.
  • They mention using information and logic based on their 4-hour market maker sell model.
  • The speaker announces that they will be teaching this model on October 31st at 9:00 am New York local time as part of their mentorship program.
  • After October 31st, there won't be any formalized structured lectures or teachings on their YouTube channel.

New Section

In this section, the speaker concludes their discussion and provides some advice for the upcoming week.

Conclusion and Advice

  • The speaker mentions that this video marks the end of an instructional portion of their Inner Circle Trader YouTube channel.
  • They will continue to do live streams and market reviews until November 10th.
  • The audience is advised to be careful in the upcoming week, pick shots wisely, be nimble, avoid risking too much or over-leveraging.
  • The speaker signs off by saying they will talk to the audience tomorrow if all goes well.
Video description

Government Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN Trading performance displayed herein is hypothetical. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance trading results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results. U.S. Government Required Disclaimer – Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. Trade at your own risk. The information provided here is of the nature of a general comment only and neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person’s investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. You should seek appropriate advice from your broker, or licensed investment advisor, before taking any action. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Simulated performance results contain inherent limitations. Unlike actual performance records the results may under or over compensate for such factors such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses to those shown. The risk of loss in trading can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. If you purchase or sell Equities, Futures, Currencies or Options you may sustain a total loss of the initial margin funds and any additional funds that you deposit with your broker to establish or maintain your position. If the market moves against your position, you may be called upon by your broker to deposit a substantial amount of additional margin funds, on short notice in order to maintain your position. If you do not provide the required funds within the prescribed time, your position may be liquidated at a loss, and you may be liable for any resulting deficit in your account. Under certain market conditions, you may find it difficult or impossible to liquidate a position. This can occur, for example, when the market makes a “limit move.” The placement of contingent orders by you, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders.