Why societies collapse | Jared Diamond

Understanding Societal Collapse

Introduction to Societal Collapses

• The speaker discusses the fascination with historical societies that collapsed, such as the Maya and Great Zimbabwe, highlighting environmental issues as a common factor in these collapses.

• Contrasts fragile societies with those that have thrived for millennia (e.g., Japan, Tonga), raising questions about what makes some societies more resilient than others.

Relevance to Modern Society

• Draws parallels between past collapses and current situations in countries like Somalia and Rwanda, emphasizing the importance of learning from history to avoid similar fates.

• Asserts that societal collapse is complex and cannot be attributed to a single cause; warns against oversimplified explanations.

Five-Point Framework for Analyzing Collapse

Case Study: Greenland Norse Society

• Introduces a five-point framework used to analyze societal collapses, beginning with the extinction of the Greenland Norse society around 1450.

Human Environmental Impacts

• First point: Examines how human actions led to environmental degradation, specifically soil erosion and deforestation among the Vikings due to their iron production needs.

Climate Change Factors

• Second point: Discusses climate change's role; while temperatures dropped in Greenland during the late 1300s, it did not affect all groups equally (e.g., Inuit thrived).

Relations with Neighboring Societies

• Third point: Highlights trade relations with Norway that weakened over time due to various factors including sea ice, impacting resource availability for the Norse.

Hostile Relations Impacting Survival

• Fourth point: Describes conflicts with Inuit populations who may have contributed significantly to Norse decline by blocking access to vital resources.

Cultural and Political Factors

• Fifth point: Explores internal cultural factors hindering problem-solving capabilities within Norse society, such as religious commitments and social hierarchies.

Contemporary Analysis of Montana's Environment

Current Environmental Issues

• The speaker reflects on personal experiences in Montana, revealing underlying environmental problems despite its seemingly pristine appearance.

Checklist Application

• Applies the same five-point checklist:

• Human impacts include toxic mine waste causing significant economic damage.

• Climate change is affecting agriculture reliant on snowpack irrigation due to warming trends.

Economic Vulnerabilities

• Discusses economic dependencies where over half of Montana’s income comes from external sources, making it vulnerable.

Global Sensitivities

Understanding Societal Collapse

The Role of Long-Held Values

• Montanans' traditional values, such as devotion to logging, mining, and agriculture, are now hindering their ability to address contemporary issues.

• Historical values that once served societies well may not be effective in solving current problems.

Patterns of Collapse in Societies

• Many societies experience rapid collapse shortly after reaching their peak; this is a common thread observed across different cultures.

• Examples include the lowland Maya's decline in the early 800s and the Soviet Union's collapse within decades of its greatest power.

Resource Mismatch and Rapid Decline

• A significant factor contributing to societal collapse is the mismatch between resource consumption and availability.

• The analogy of bacteria growth in a petri dish illustrates how societies can quickly exhaust resources after a period of expansion.

Mathematical Insights into Societal Health

• To assess societal stability, one should focus on the first and second derivatives of wealth rather than just its total value.

Environmental Fragility Factors

• Subtle environmental factors contribute to some societies being more fragile than others; for instance, Easter Island faced unique challenges leading to deforestation.

• Key environmental influences included volcanic fallout and nutrient input from continental dust, which were critical yet overlooked until recent studies.

Perception Failures in Societal Decision-Making

• Students often question how past societies failed to recognize their destructive actions; this raises concerns about modern society's awareness of similar issues.

• There is an expectation that future generations will also wonder why current populations did not take corrective actions when they had the chance.

Conflicts of Interest Leading to Collapse

• A major risk factor for societal collapse is when decision-making elites prioritize short-term gains over long-term societal health.

• Historical examples show that elite interests can lead to unsustainable practices that ultimately harm society as a whole.

• In Greenland Norse society, chiefs prioritized immediate resource accumulation at the expense of long-term sustainability.

Modern Implications for Society

Understanding Societal Decision-Making and Environmental Challenges

Conflicts of Interest in Societal Decisions

• Societies often make poor decisions due to conflicts of interest, where short-term benefits for certain groups lead to long-term detriments for society as a whole.

• Strongly held values can hinder societal adaptability; the Greenland Norse's commitment to religion and social cohesion limited their ability to learn from the Inuit during environmental challenges.

• Australia's British identity has historically supported its survival but now poses challenges in adapting to its geographical context in Asia.

The Ticking Time Bombs of Modern Society

• There are numerous pressing global issues—referred to as "time bombs"—that threaten sustainability, including water scarcity, climate change, and invasive species.

• Many of these problems have imminent deadlines; for instance, the Philippines may lose all accessible loggable forests within five years.

The Importance of Comprehensive Solutions

• Addressing environmental issues requires a multifaceted approach; focusing on one problem while neglecting others could lead to failure.

• A non-sustainable course is inevitable if current practices continue; resolution will occur within decades through either proactive measures or adverse consequences like war or starvation.

Choices and Control Over Our Future

• Individuals under 60 will likely witness how these environmental paradoxes resolve, emphasizing the urgency for action.

• Major threats today stem from human actions rather than uncontrollable events (e.g., asteroids), suggesting that solutions are within our reach.

Taking Action