4 Actions Rentables Anti-Crise

Market Insights and Economic Analysis

Overview of Current Economic Climate

• Guillaume, a market finance engineer, discusses the recent volatility in the stock market and mentions that January may end with four profitable stocks.

• He highlights France's economic contraction of -0.1% over the past two years, indicating a sluggish growth rate.

Critique of French Economic Policies

• François Bayrou criticizes Emmanuel Macron for continuous additional spending leading to a precarious economic situation.

• The disconnect between the French economy and stock performance is noted, as major French companies generate over 70% of their revenue abroad.

Taxation and Corporate Decisions

• Bernard Arnault raises concerns about taxing "Made In France," suggesting it could incentivize companies like Michelin and LVMH to relocate operations to the U.S., where corporate tax rates are significantly lower (15% vs. 40% in France).

U.S. Economic Outlook

• Jerome Powell maintains interest rates at 4.5%, indicating confidence in the strength of the U.S. economy.

• Christine Lagarde announces a reduction in European Central Bank rates to 2.9%, reflecting stagnation in Europe’s economy.

Currency Implications

• The widening interest rate gap between Europe and the U.S. allows financial actors to borrow at lower rates in Europe while investing in higher-yielding American markets.

• This trend is expected to exert downward pressure on the EUR/USD exchange rate, predicting further depreciation of the euro against the dollar into 2025.

Investment Strategies: Diversification

Importance of Diversification

• Guillaume emphasizes diversifying investments away from solely French assets due to significant risks associated with holding all investments in euros or local stocks.

Introduction to American Stocks

• He introduces an analysis of four globally recognized American stocks as part of his strategy for diversification.

Apple Inc.: A Case Study

Performance Overview

• Apple has shown impressive performance with a +27% return over the last year; its long-term growth factor stands at x8 over ten years.

Recent Financial Results

• Despite overall strong results, Apple's revenue from China fell short expectations ($18.5 billion vs $20.8 billion), raising concerns about iPhone sales potential in this key market.

Profit Margins and Future Growth

• While Apple's margins increased from 54% to 58%, this was largely due to higher-margin services like those from the App Store rather than hardware sales.

Valuation Concerns

• Currently trading at a PE Ratio of x32.5, Apple appears expensive given anticipated profit growth of only 10%.

Conclusion on Investment Viability

• Although not favored for immediate investment due to high valuation, Apple remains a solid option for diversification within risk-tolerant portfolios aiming for medium-term gains by 2028.

Community Engagement

Analysis of Visa and Microsoft Stocks

Visa's Performance and Growth Potential

• Visa is recognized as the leading payment card company, showing a positive performance with a +23% growth over one year. The stock is considered a good addition to investment portfolios.

• The company has delivered a fivefold return to shareholders while maintaining long-term trends. Recent financial results show a 10% revenue growth and 5% profit growth, indicating strong network activity.

• Visa boasts impressive margins: an 80% gross margin and a 55% net margin, which are expected to improve due to tax cuts from the new Trump administration.

• Despite its high valuation (PE ratio of x30.7), the anticipated risk remains manageable at 21%, making it accessible for many investors.

• The speaker personally holds Visa shares, benefiting from a +26% increase in value over the past year, highlighting its attractiveness as an investment.

Microsoft's Financial Strength and Market Position

• Microsoft is described as a historical leader in software and services, generating substantial cash flow through products like Windows and Office. It remains highly sought after by investors.

• Over the last decade, Microsoft has provided nearly tenfold returns for shareholders but has recently traded below its long-term trend, prompting investor interest.

• On January 29th, Microsoft reported strong financial results with a 12% revenue increase (nearly $70 billion in three months) and $24 billion in quarterly profits despite slight underperformance in Azure cloud revenue expectations.

• With robust customer loyalty and profitability (70% gross margin; 35% net margin), Microsoft's outlook remains solid amid potential tax reductions under the Trump administration.

• Although trading at a PE ratio of x31.8 may seem expensive, projected growth rates of around 15%-17%, particularly from Azure cloud services, justify this valuation amidst an acceptable risk level of less than 27%.

Investment Tools Offered

• The speaker promotes three independent tools designed to assist investors:

• A comparative analysis of PEA & CTO brokers.

• A pragmatic growth simulator.