وثائقي | جيوش العرب بين الاعتدال والممانعة – من يملك القوة الحقيقية؟

Military Strength in the Arab World: A Comparative Analysis

Overview of Military Forces

• The discussion highlights the diverse military capabilities across different Arab nations, emphasizing that each army has its own weapons, equipment, and historical context.

• Two main military alliances are identified: the "Moderate Arab Axis" aligned with the West and America, and the "Resistance Axis" equipped primarily with Russian arms.

Comparative Military Strength

• The top three armies in the Moderate Axis (Egypt, Saudi Arabia, UAE) have approximately 1.69 million active personnel compared to around 950,000 in the Resistance Axis (Algeria, Iraq, Syria).

• In terms of air power, the Moderate Axis possesses 2,504 aircraft versus 1,428 for their counterparts; they also have a significant advantage in tanks (7,200 vs. 5,200).

Financial Investment in Defense

• The defense budgets reflect a stark contrast: over $100 billion for the Moderate Axis compared to just $43 billion for the Resistance Axis.

• This financial disparity is crucial as it influences military readiness and capability.

Types of Armaments

• The armament types differ significantly; Western and American weaponry dominates in the Moderate Axis while Russian and Iranian arms are prevalent among Resistance forces.

Current Geopolitical Context

• The region faces heightened tensions due to ongoing conflicts such as Israel's actions against Gaza since October 2023 and potential escalations involving Lebanon and Yemen.

The Impact of Global Firepower Rankings

Historical Context of Rankings

• Egypt remains at the forefront of Arab military strength according to Global Firepower rankings from 2024; Saudi Arabia follows closely due to its substantial defense spending.

Methodology Behind Rankings

• Global Firepower uses over 60 factors including military capabilities and logistics to rank countries' armed forces annually.

Critique of Ranking Accuracy

• There are concerns regarding data accuracy due to classified information on military capabilities which may skew perceptions of actual strength.

Detailed Examination of Egyptian Military Capabilities

Key Statistics on Egypt's Armed Forces

• Egypt ranks first among Arab militaries globally with a defense budget of $9.4 billion; it boasts a large active force complemented by advanced weaponry.

Composition of Forces

• With a population capable of service estimated at 37 million out of nearly 190 million total citizens, Egypt maintains an extensive reserve force alongside its active duty personnel.

Air Power & Ground Forces

• The Egyptian Air Force ranks eighth globally with various aircraft types including fighters and transport planes; ground forces include thousands of tanks ranked third worldwide.

Military Capabilities of Arab Nations

Overview of Egyptian Naval Forces

• The Egyptian Navy consists of 13 helicopter carriers, 7 corvettes, and 8 submarines, along with 42 patrol vessels and 23 minesweepers.

• The logistical support for the Egyptian military includes 436 commercial ships, one port, and 83 airports, complemented by extensive waterways and a vast network of roads and railways.

Saudi Arabian Military Strength

• Saudi Arabia ranks third globally in military strength with a defense budget of $71 billion, the highest in the Arab world. Its population is approximately 77 million, with around 17 million eligible for military service.

• The Royal Saudi Air Force operates a total of 914 aircraft including advanced fighters like Eurofighter Typhoon and F-15 jets. It also has significant ground forces comprising 1,485 tanks and over 20,700 armored vehicles.

UAE Military Capabilities

• The UAE's armed forces are ranked fifth among Arab nations in terms of strength as of 2024. With a population exceeding millions, about 4.8 million are eligible for military service; the active force comprises around 77,000 soldiers.

• The UAE possesses an air fleet totaling around 560 aircraft which includes fighter jets and transport planes; its naval capabilities consist of approximately 79 vessels including patrol boats and corvettes.

Moroccan Armed Forces

• Morocco ranks seventh among Arab armies with a defense budget exceeding $12 billion; its population stands at about 37 million with roughly half eligible for military service (15 million). The regular army consists of about 196,000 personnel.

• In terms of air power, Morocco has around 255 aircraft including multi-role fighters; its ground forces include over a thousand tanks and numerous artillery systems alongside a naval fleet comprising various vessels including frigates and patrol boats.

Jordanian Military Overview

• Jordan's military is recognized as one of the key forces within moderate Arab states despite being ranked lower globally (14th). Approximately $2 billion is allocated to its defense budget; there are about 2.9 million people fit for service out of a total force size nearing165,000 troops.

• The Royal Jordanian Air Force operates around265 aircraft while ground forces include over1300 tanks; it maintains a small naval presence primarily consisting of patrol vessels only totaling27 units overall.

Algerian Armed Forces

• Algeria holds the position as the third strongest army in the Arab world (26th globally) with an annual defense budget reaching $21.6 billion; its population numbers approximately40 million individuals capable for service amounting to18 million eligible recruits.

Iraqi Military Status

• Iraq ranks fourth among Arab nations (5th globally) with similar financial allocations towards defense ($21 billion); it has an estimated46 million citizens from which14 million can serve militarily.

Military Capabilities in the Resistance Axis

Overview of Iraq's Military Strength

• Iraq possesses a diverse fleet of 371 aircraft, including 26 multi-role fighters and 35 ground attack bombers, supported by 20 transport planes and 113 training aircraft.

• The Iraqi military also includes 848 tanks, 3872 armored vehicles, and various artillery systems such as self-propelled howitzers (281 units) and field guns (1446 units).

• In terms of naval power, Iraq has a fleet of 68 vessels. The logistical support for these forces is provided through approximately 100 airbases.

Syrian Military Capabilities

• Syria ranks sixth among Arab nations militarily and sixtieth globally with a defense budget under one billion dollars; its population stands at around 23 million.

• The Syrian Air Force consists of 452 aircraft, including multi-role fighters (168), bombers (57), and helicopters (153), all supported by about 90 airbases.

• Ground forces include approximately 2720 tanks and over 4500 armored vehicles. The Syrian Navy comprises only 47 vessels.

Yemen's Military Landscape

• Yemen's military ranks lower regionally but has significant capabilities due to its ties with Iran; the total population is about 34 million.

• The Yemeni army has around 66,700 soldiers along with substantial paramilitary forces. Its air force includes various combat aircraft totaling to about171.

• Notably, the Houthi missile arsenal poses a considerable threat in the Red Sea region, featuring ballistic missiles like "Toofan" with ranges up to nearly two thousand kilometers.

Houthi Missile Arsenal

• Recent developments indicate that the Houthis have advanced their missile technology significantly since October attacks on Israel; they possess long-range anti-tank missiles capable of reaching targets between1350 to1950 km away.

• Newer models like "Quds IV" exceed ranges of two thousand kilometers while maintaining similarities to previous Iranian designs.

Hezbollah's Influence in Lebanon

• Lebanon’s military is ranked low globally but is backed by Hezbollah’s formidable missile capabilities; the Lebanese Army consists of around eight thousand active personnel.

• Despite limited conventional strength—78 aircraft and several naval assets—the real deterrent comes from Hezbollah’s extensive rocket arsenal which enhances Lebanon's strategic position within the resistance axis.

Hezbollah's Military Capabilities and Weaponry

Overview of Hezbollah's Arsenal

• Hezbollah is equipped with advanced weaponry, including a new missile called "Almas," which is comparable to the Israeli Spike missile. This missile targets light fortifications and military points using infrared guidance.

• The Almas missile features high-definition imaging capabilities during flight, allowing for precise targeting. It has a warhead designed for penetration, weighing 6.8 grams, and can strike targets up to 8 kilometers away.

• There are three variants of the Almas missile: Almas One (2 km range), Almas Two (7 km range), and Almas Three (10 km range). Its unique ability to fly in an arched trajectory allows it to bypass obstacles when targeting tanks.

Tactical Systems and Countermeasures

• The "Thar Allah" system consists of platforms that launch guided missiles at single targets with minimal time differences. This system is an adapted version of Iran's "Dahliya" system, designed for maximum destruction while evading Israeli Trophy systems that neutralize incoming projectiles.

• Another significant weapon in Hezbollah’s arsenal is the "Tufan" missile, a modified version of the American TOW anti-tank missile. Weighing approximately 3.5 kg, it has a maximum range of about 385 meters and can penetrate tank armor effectively.

Local Production and International Acquisitions

• Hezbollah also possesses locally manufactured short-range missiles known as "Burkan," which carry explosive warheads weighing between 300 to 500 kg capable of causing substantial damage.

• The group has acquired various types of missiles from international sources, including Chinese Red Arrow missiles and Russian Kornet missiles, solidifying its status as one of the most heavily armed non-state actors globally according to strategic studies centers.

Diverse Missile Inventory

• Among its diverse inventory are North Korean Phoenix 3 anti-tank missiles with a maximum range of 700 meters, drones capable of engaging aerial threats, mortars, cruise missiles like Scud C & D variants, and anti-ship missiles such as the Chinese-made C802.

• Newer systems have been developed to counter drones and helicopters (e.g., SA-17 & SA-22), adding depth to their existing arsenal ranging from Katyusha rockets to long-range Zilzal missiles.

Regional Military Context

• Since 2006, Hezbollah has developed reconnaissance drones capable of carrying munitions over distances up to 400 km. Their ground forces include elite units trained for urban warfare scenarios.

Comparative Analysis of Arab Armies

Ranking Arab Militaries

• Qatar ranks third globally but maintains neutrality by fostering relationships with both Iran and Western nations while mediating between Hamas and Israel.

• Tunisia holds the 74th position despite not having relations with Israel; it balances its stance through varying political statements regarding normalization while maintaining ties with Iran and Russia.

Sudanese Army Dynamics

• The Sudanese army ranks low due to ongoing civil conflict but remains unaligned amidst rumors about potential peace agreements with Israel despite internal strife against rapid support forces.

Neutrality in Gulf States

• Oman ranks eighth globally due to its neutral stance while maintaining close ties with both Iran and Western powers; Kuwait also remains outside major alliances despite being part of Gulf Cooperation Council dynamics focused on moderation.

Future Conflicts in the Region

Potential Flashpoints

• Ongoing tensions from conflicts such as Gaza pose significant risks for regional stability; continuous Israeli operations against Palestinians increase chances for broader confrontations involving Lebanon or Jordan amid escalating Iranian-Israeli hostilities.

This structured summary provides insights into Hezbollah's military capabilities alongside contextual analysis regarding regional military standings among Arab nations while highlighting potential future conflicts stemming from current geopolitical tensions.

Regional Tensions and Military Escalation in the Arab World

Israeli Plans and Regional Military Dynamics

• The discussion highlights concerns over Israel's plans to displace Palestinians from the West Bank towards Jordan, indicating a significant geopolitical issue.

• Saudi Arabia and Yemen are mentioned as being involved in escalating tensions, particularly with ongoing threats posed by Houthi attacks on vessels in the Red Sea.

Arms Race Between Algeria and Morocco

• The transcript notes an arms race between Algeria and Morocco, driven by a diplomatic crisis that has persisted since 2021.

• Both countries are reportedly racing to enhance their military capabilities amidst growing regional threats, particularly from the Moroccan Sahara.

Broader Implications of Military Build-Up

• A critical question arises regarding the potential impact if Arab nations were to consolidate their military resources instead of competing against each other.

• This raises discussions about changing power dynamics within the region, suggesting that unity could significantly alter military strength across Arab states.