Ukraine’s counteroffensive: What is the chance of success or the price of failure? |DW News

Ukraine's President Thanks Poland for Support in War with Russia

Ukrainian President Zelenski visits Warsaw to thank Poland for its support in the war with Russia. Poland has been a close ally of Ukraine and has provided extensive military support.

Polish Support for Ukraine

• President Zelenski thanks Poland for its support in the war with Russia.

• Poland announces it will supply Ukraine with 14 Mig fighter jets.

• There are still about a million Ukrainian refugees in Poland who have been welcomed by the Polish people.

Military Analysts Expecting Spring Counter-offensive from Ukraine

Military analysts expect Ukraine to launch a spring counter-offensive against Russian occupation forces. Western allies have supplied tanks and rockets, which may provide an edge.

Preparations for Counter-offensive

• Military analysts expect Ukraine to launch a spring counter-offensive against Russian occupation forces.

• Newly delivered tanks and longer-range rockets supplied by Western allies may provide an edge.

• Ukrainian soldiers are dug in near Bakmut as they prepare for the counter-offensive.

• The Ukrainian army is waiting for new equipment from their partners abroad, including Western tanks and guided bombs.

Analysts Predict Major Attack Through Partially Occupied Donbas Region

Analysts predict that Ukraine will mount a major attack through the partially occupied Donbas region, aiming at the Russian-held city of Molitopol. A successful push would cut through Russia's supply lines to its forces further west.

Goals of the Counter-offensive

• Ukraine's goal is to liberate all of its territory, including the Crimean peninsula in Russian hands for nearly a decade.

• Analysts predict that Ukraine will mount a major attack through the partially occupied Donbas region, aiming at the Russian-held city of Molitopol.

Military Planner Discusses Considerations for Successful Counter-offensive

Former Commanding General of U.S forces in Europe, Ben Hodges, discusses what military planners need to consider to make a counter-offensive successful.

Considerations for Success

• The Ukrainian general staff has done a terrific job protecting information and conserving the forces that they're going to need when they do inevitably launch this counter-offensive.

• The fighting around Bakmut was very costly but also necessary.

• Military planners need to consider factors such as logistics, intelligence gathering, and force protection when planning a successful counter-offensive.

The Importance of Crimea in the Conflict

In this section, General Ben Hodges discusses the importance of Crimea in the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. He explains that liberating Crimea is crucial to changing the strategic setting.

Importance of Liberating Crimea

• Crimea is decisive terrain.

• Liberating Crimea changes everything.

• Ukraine has been preparing for a counter-offensive to liberate Crimea.

• The counter-offensive will involve combined arms, tanks, artillery, mechanized infantry, engineers, and close air support.

• Precision weapons will be used to make the Crimean Peninsula untenable by targeting headquarters and ammunition storage sites.

Potential Outcomes of a Successful Counter-Offensive

In this section, General Ben Hodges discusses potential outcomes of a successful Ukrainian counter-offensive against Russian forces in Crimea.

Price of Failure

• It is important for Ukraine to launch a successful counter-offensive.

• Most nations recognize how important this is and want Ukraine to win.

Potential Outcomes

• A successful attack could have a devastating effect on Russian forces and potentially break them psychologically.

• Sanctions are having an effect on Russia's ability to fight.

Longer Range Missiles: GL SDB Missiles

In this section, General Ben Hodges discusses how longer range missiles can undermine Russia's advantage in mass infantry and mass artillery.

Ground Launch Small Diameter Bombs (GL SDB)

• GL SDB missiles have a 150-kilometer reach.

• They can target Russian headquarters, artillery storage, and transportation networks.

• Shaping the battlefield involves taking out headquarters and ammunition to make it difficult for the Russians to move.

NATO's Support for Ukraine

In this section, NATO Secretary General Jen Stoltenberg reiterates the alliance's long-term support for Ukraine.

NATO's Support

• The alliance will develop a program to bring Ukraine's military up to NATO standards.

• Growing concern within NATO that Beijing may be trying.

U.S Secretary of State Anthony Blinken's Press Conference at NATO Headquarters

Terry Schultz reports on the press conference held by U.S Secretary of State Anthony Blinken at NATO headquarters. The conference covered topics such as Ukraine, China's intentions towards Taiwan, and defense spending.

Blinken's Comments on Ukraine

• Blinken was asked about the U.S report for Ukraine regarding the trust that NATO allies have in the U.S.

• NATO has pledged to eventually make Ukraine a member of the alliance, but most allies would not be willing to accept a new member with an ongoing war on its territory.

• Allies are telling Ukraine that they will do everything they can to help them win the war, but membership is not on the agenda at this point.

China's Intentions Towards Taiwan

• There is concern about China's intentions towards Taiwan, as it has a strong military interest in the Indo-Pacific region.

• NATO warns that any help from China to Russia would be considered a serious mistake and could result in serious consequences for Beijing.

Defense Spending

• Most allies are not meeting NATO's target of spending 2% of their GDP on their own militaries.

• At the next summit in Vilnius this July, there will be a new financial pledge aimed at compelling allies to invest more heavily in their own militaries for their own defense and to help Ukraine win its war against Russia.