2025 Lecture Series - ICT Venom Example May 12, 2025
NASDAQ Analysis and Market Insights
Overview of Current Market Conditions
- The speaker reviews the NASDAQ, emphasizing a bullish outlook as long as it remains above a specific fair gap.
- Recent news regarding an agreement between China and Trump's administration positively influenced market sentiment, leading to a premium opening.
- Despite the bullish sentiment, caution is advised due to the opening below the March 26 high, indicating potential for further price movement.
Understanding Gap Risks
- The concept of "gap risk" is introduced, highlighting how significant gaps can affect trading frequency and setup opportunities.
- Traders are encouraged to be selective in their strategies due to these gaps impacting market movements.
Technical Analysis on Price Action
- A transition to a one-minute chart is made to analyze recent price action following the market's opening at 9:30 AM.
- The first presented fair gap of the week is identified, which will serve as a reference point throughout trading sessions.
Observations from Trading Patterns
- Notable price movements occur around key times such as London open and 9:30 AM, with significant fluctuations observed during these periods.
- A short-term low was established after a sell-off despite an overall bullish bias in the market.
Strategy for Trading Decisions
- The speaker discusses criteria for entering trades based on stop runs and maintaining a bullish or bearish bias depending on daily fair gaps.
Trading Strategies and Insights
Understanding the Venom Model
- The Venom model requires traders to submit to a specific entry point, using the low of a candlestick as risk and the closing price of that candlestick for entry.
- The strategy emphasizes not worrying about market fluctuations within a range, focusing instead on maintaining stops below key levels. Entry points are identified based on candlestick closures.
Analyzing Market Movements
- A one-minute chart can provide detailed insights into market behavior, particularly during macro trading hours (3:15 PM to 3:45 PM). This timeframe allows for better visibility of price action and potential entry points.
- Traders should be prepared for sideways movements in price, which may necessitate switching to higher timeframes (5-minute, 15-minute) for clearer signals. This approach helps avoid fatigue from indecisive markets.
Hierarchy of Timeframes
- The recommended hierarchy when analyzing charts is starting from one minute up to hourly or daily charts, depending on market conditions and candle activity observed in lower timeframes. Adjusting timeframes can reveal more refined levels of support and resistance.
- It’s crucial to wait for confirmation before entering trades; this includes observing whether the market has proven it can move higher after consolidating at lower levels. Proper timing is essential for successful entries.
Institutional Order Flow Concepts
- The discussion highlights the importance of understanding institutional order flow rather than traditional supply and demand concepts; this involves recognizing how bodies in candlesticks indicate market sentiment and potential future movements.
- Traders should focus on volume imbalances as indicators for potential entries while also being aware of relative equal highs that could serve as targets during trading sessions later in the day. This strategic approach aids in maximizing profit opportunities while minimizing risks associated with false breakouts or reversals.
Practical Application of Strategies
Understanding the Venom Model
Overview of the Venom Model
- The Venom model is discussed as a method for utilizing deferred entries in trading, specifically with turtle suit strategies. The speaker encourages viewers to explore examples on their YouTube channel for practical demonstrations.
- The effectiveness of the Venom model is highlighted, comparing its ease of use to "taking candy from a baby," indicating that it simplifies complex trading scenarios.
Trading Insights and Strategies
- A specific time range (1:30 PM to 2:00 PM Eastern Time) is emphasized as crucial for identifying first percent values, which can be extended into future analysis for both short and long positions.
- The speaker mentions that not all information will be shared, suggesting that traders should engage with their charts during this specified timeframe to enhance their understanding and journaling practices.
Conclusion and Personal Note