2025 Lecture Series - ICT Venom Example May 12, 2025

2025 Lecture Series - ICT Venom Example May 12, 2025

NASDAQ Analysis and Market Insights

Overview of Current Market Conditions

  • The speaker reviews the NASDAQ, emphasizing a bullish outlook as long as it remains above a specific fair gap.
  • Recent news regarding an agreement between China and Trump's administration positively influenced market sentiment, leading to a premium opening.
  • Despite the bullish sentiment, caution is advised due to the opening below the March 26 high, indicating potential for further price movement.

Understanding Gap Risks

  • The concept of "gap risk" is introduced, highlighting how significant gaps can affect trading frequency and setup opportunities.
  • Traders are encouraged to be selective in their strategies due to these gaps impacting market movements.

Technical Analysis on Price Action

  • A transition to a one-minute chart is made to analyze recent price action following the market's opening at 9:30 AM.
  • The first presented fair gap of the week is identified, which will serve as a reference point throughout trading sessions.

Observations from Trading Patterns

  • Notable price movements occur around key times such as London open and 9:30 AM, with significant fluctuations observed during these periods.
  • A short-term low was established after a sell-off despite an overall bullish bias in the market.

Strategy for Trading Decisions

  • The speaker discusses criteria for entering trades based on stop runs and maintaining a bullish or bearish bias depending on daily fair gaps.

Trading Strategies and Insights

Understanding the Venom Model

  • The Venom model requires traders to submit to a specific entry point, using the low of a candlestick as risk and the closing price of that candlestick for entry.
  • The strategy emphasizes not worrying about market fluctuations within a range, focusing instead on maintaining stops below key levels. Entry points are identified based on candlestick closures.

Analyzing Market Movements

  • A one-minute chart can provide detailed insights into market behavior, particularly during macro trading hours (3:15 PM to 3:45 PM). This timeframe allows for better visibility of price action and potential entry points.
  • Traders should be prepared for sideways movements in price, which may necessitate switching to higher timeframes (5-minute, 15-minute) for clearer signals. This approach helps avoid fatigue from indecisive markets.

Hierarchy of Timeframes

  • The recommended hierarchy when analyzing charts is starting from one minute up to hourly or daily charts, depending on market conditions and candle activity observed in lower timeframes. Adjusting timeframes can reveal more refined levels of support and resistance.
  • It’s crucial to wait for confirmation before entering trades; this includes observing whether the market has proven it can move higher after consolidating at lower levels. Proper timing is essential for successful entries.

Institutional Order Flow Concepts

  • The discussion highlights the importance of understanding institutional order flow rather than traditional supply and demand concepts; this involves recognizing how bodies in candlesticks indicate market sentiment and potential future movements.
  • Traders should focus on volume imbalances as indicators for potential entries while also being aware of relative equal highs that could serve as targets during trading sessions later in the day. This strategic approach aids in maximizing profit opportunities while minimizing risks associated with false breakouts or reversals.

Practical Application of Strategies

Understanding the Venom Model

Overview of the Venom Model

  • The Venom model is discussed as a method for utilizing deferred entries in trading, specifically with turtle suit strategies. The speaker encourages viewers to explore examples on their YouTube channel for practical demonstrations.
  • The effectiveness of the Venom model is highlighted, comparing its ease of use to "taking candy from a baby," indicating that it simplifies complex trading scenarios.

Trading Insights and Strategies

  • A specific time range (1:30 PM to 2:00 PM Eastern Time) is emphasized as crucial for identifying first percent values, which can be extended into future analysis for both short and long positions.
  • The speaker mentions that not all information will be shared, suggesting that traders should engage with their charts during this specified timeframe to enhance their understanding and journaling practices.

Conclusion and Personal Note

Video description

Government Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN Trading performance displayed herein is hypothetical. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance trading results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results. U.S. Government Required Disclaimer – Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. Trade at your own risk. The information provided here is of the nature of a general comment only and neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person’s investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. You should seek appropriate advice from your broker, or licensed investment advisor, before taking any action. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Simulated performance results contain inherent limitations. Unlike actual performance records the results may under or over compensate for such factors such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses to those shown. The risk of loss in trading can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. If you purchase or sell Equities, Futures, Currencies or Options you may sustain a total loss of the initial margin funds and any additional funds that you deposit with your broker to establish or maintain your position. If the market moves against your position, you may be called upon by your broker to deposit a substantial amount of additional margin funds, on short notice in order to maintain your position. If you do not provide the required funds within the prescribed time, your position may be liquidated at a loss, and you may be liable for any resulting deficit in your account. Under certain market conditions, you may find it difficult or impossible to liquidate a position. This can occur, for example, when the market makes a “limit move.” The placement of contingent orders by you, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders.