ICT - Trading Plan Development 5

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Intermediate Term Trading Plan Example

Introduction

• The module provides an example of an intermediate term trading plan.

• It is not meant to be used as a specific trading plan, but rather to stimulate prudent decision making and determine if one has the patience and skills to follow such a plan.

• Intermediate term trading involves longer trade durations compared to intraday or scalp trading.

• Patience is required for setting up and unfolding trades in this module.

General Market and Trading Plan Outline

• The timeframe for this example is the daily chart.

• The primary focus is on trading intermediate term price swings found on the daily chart, with trade durations lasting several weeks to months.

• Bullish conditions and bearish conditions are classified in this plan.

Bullish Conditions

• Look for seasonal tendencies indicating a bullish market environment.

• Monitor interest rates, expecting them to move higher or looking for divergence in yields that suggest a potential increase.

• Weakening of the US dollar on the daily chart indicates a risk-on scenario.

• Observe declining Treasury notes futures markets (2-year, 5-year, 10-year) as there is an inverse relationship between yields and futures markets. Tea notes should be going down on daily charts while yields move higher.

• Analyze commitment of traders (COT) data, hoping for commercials being net long or aggressively reducing their short positions.

• Use daily Williams percent range as a tool to determine market sentiment, looking for oversold conditions.

• Stock indices should be firm or bullish, potentially showing failure swings at key support levels.

• CRB index (commodities) should be trading firm to bullish at a key support level.

• Gold and oil, as benchmarks for the economy, should also be firm or bullish.

Bearish Conditions

• Look for a bearish market environment based on seasonal tendencies.

• Expect interest rates to move lower, indicating a risk-off scenario.

• Monitor the market's response to lower yields.

• Analyze daily charts of Treasury notes futures markets (2-year, 5-year, 10-year) for potential insights.

• Consider COT data and open interest sentiment.

• Use daily Williams percent range to assess market sentiment.

• Watch for weakening stock indices and bearish signals in the CRB index.

The timestamps provided are approximate and may not align perfectly with the transcript.

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In this section, the speaker discusses the market analysis and identifies key support and resistance levels.

Identifying Key Support and Resistance Levels

• The speaker emphasizes the importance of identifying higher time frame monthly, weekly, and daily key support and resistance levels as catalysts for trade signals. These levels are crucial for taking trades.

• While waiting for a setup, when the market is seasonally bullish, one should focus on stalking yields in pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Positive divergences in yields may indicate a possible turn and increasing yields, leading to a bullish scenario.

• Conversely, if the market is seasonally bearish, observing yield triad divergences between US, German, and UK countries' yields can indicate a bearish stage overall.

• Monitoring the US Dollar Index is also important. Lower lows in the dollar but failing to make higher highs in cross currencies like EUR/USD or GBP/USD can be an SMT divergence indicating weakness in those currencies.

• The correlation between highs and lows of the US Dollar Index and cross currency pairs should be considered to determine bullish or bearish scenarios.

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In this section, the speaker discusses how to anticipate market conditions based on key support levels and correlations between different currency pairs.

Anticipating Market Conditions

• When anticipating market conditions, it is essential to monitor key support levels for reversals or strengthening of currencies.

• If the US Dollar Index makes a higher low while cross currencies like EUR/USD or GBP/USD fail to make lower lows at their respective support levels, it indicates potential bullishness for the dollar.

• On the other hand, if cross currencies make lower lows while the US Dollar Index fails to make higher highs at its resistance level, it suggests bearishness for those currencies.

• Correlation between the pound and the euro should also be considered. If one currency fails to make a lower low at a key support level, it indicates a correlated pair SMT divergence and suggests a possible short-term shift in market conditions.

The transcript is already in English, so there is no need to translate it.

New Section

In this section, the speaker discusses the importance of observing stock market indices for SMT divergences and compares the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite Index. They explain that higher highs and lower lows in these indices indicate a bullish environment, while divergences can signal potential trading opportunities or the need to adjust stop losses.

Observing Stock Market Indices

• The speaker suggests looking for SMT (Stock Market Technician) divergences by comparing the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite Index.

• Higher highs and lower lows in these indices confirm a bullish trend.

• Divergences occur when one index fails to make a lower low at a key support level while others are lining up.

• Confirmation is important for measuring overall risk on a daily basis.

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In this section, the speaker explains how to use Dow Theory to analyze stock market trends. They emphasize the importance of confirmation between three averages and monitoring risk using daily charts.

Using Dow Theory

• Three averages (Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq) should confirm highs for continuation on the upside or show lower lows if going down.

• If one average deviates from this trend at a key resistance or support level, it may indicate an upcoming trading opportunity or suggest adjusting stop losses.

• The commercials' net position can be used to determine long-term macro trends by analyzing weekly charts with Commitment of Traders (COT) data.

• Syncing with commercial traders' positions helps identify optimal trade entry points based on key support/resistance levels and open interest.

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This section focuses on confirming trends through follow-through between three averages. It also highlights the significance of open interest changes in bullish and bearish conditions.

Confirming Trends and Open Interest

• Follow-through between the three averages is crucial for confirming trends.

• Lower lows should be observed when the averages go lower, indicating a bearish trend.

• If one average deviates from this pattern at a key resistance or support level, it may indicate a potential market impact.

• In a bullish condition, if open interest drops by 15 to 20 percent at support levels, it suggests a strong buy signal.

• In bearish conditions, an increase of 15 to 20 percent or more in open interest at resistance levels indicates market sentiment turning bearish.

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This section discusses sell signals when the market is at key resistance levels and overbought on the daily chart. It also mentions buy signals when the market is at key support levels and oversold on a daily basis.

Sell Signals and Buy Signals

• Sell signals are expected when the market is at key resistance levels and overbought on the daily chart.

• Buy signals are anticipated when the market is at key support levels and oversold on a daily basis.

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The speaker explains how to execute trades based on risk-on or risk-off scenarios. They emphasize trading off swing points formation in conjunction with daily buy/sell programs.

Execution Stage

• Before executing any trades, determine whether it's a risk-on or risk-off scenario for that particular day/session.

• Risk-on indicates buy scenarios, while risk-off suggests sell scenarios.

• Refer to daily buy/sell programs based on swing point formations and key support/resistance levels from higher timeframes (monthly, weekly, daily).

• Transpose these key levels down to lower timeframes (60-minute, 15-minute, 5-minute) for trade entry.

• Trade in the direction of the market structure found on the daily chart.

• Use any entry pattern of choice, but it must align with previously discussed concepts.

• Ideally, trade during major session opens for optimal trade entry.

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This section focuses on trade entry and using various trading patterns in conjunction with key support/resistance levels and market structure.

Trade Entry and Patterns

• Trade entry should be aligned with key support/resistance levels and market structure found on the daily chart.

• Any trading pattern can be used (e.g., reflection pattern, MACD divergence, type 1 bearish divergence for stochastics, turtle soup patterns).

• Trade these patterns at lower timeframes (60-minute, 15-minute, 5-minute) at key support/resistance levels in the direction of the daily market structure.

• Plug-and-play aspect allows flexibility in choosing an entry pattern as long as it aligns with previously discussed concepts.

The transcript provided does not include further sections or timestamps beyond this point.

Session Opening and Utilizing the Asian Session

This section discusses the importance of the Asian session for traders of currencies like AUD, NZD, and JPY. It also mentions using limit orders based on Fibonacci retracement levels for entry points.

Importance of the Asian Session

• The Asian session is beneficial for traders of currencies like AUD, NZD, and JPY.

• Traders can utilize this session for higher time frame trades and entry orders.

Entry Orders and Risk Management

• Entry orders are based on limit orders using Fibonacci retracement levels (60-70.5% and 79%).

• Every trade has a maximum risk of two percent.

• Losses should be managed by reducing risk gradually.

• A video on handling losses provides guidance on applying risk reduction procedures.

Demo Account Usage

• It is recommended to use this strategy in a demo account to determine if it suits one's capabilities as a trader.

• Using a demo account helps develop patience and anticipatory skills.

• Understanding this higher time frame premise makes short-term trading easier.

Having Realistic Expectations and Trading with the Tide

This section emphasizes having realistic expectations in trading and aligning oneself with the overall market trend. It compares trading against the tide to swimming upstream as a fish.

Realistic Expectations in Trading

• It is important to have realistic expectations rather than seeking exponential growth in equity.

• Losses are inevitable in trading; it is crucial to preserve equity through risk management strategies.

Aligning with the Market Trend

• Trading with the overall tide or market trend is more favorable than going against it.

• Swimming downstream (with the current) as a fish is easier than swimming upstream (against the current).

• Being aligned with the market trend makes short-term trading, day trading, and scalping easier.

Trading on Higher Time Frame Premise and Taking Profits

This section highlights the benefits of trading on a higher time frame premise and provides insights into taking profits at specific price levels.

Benefits of Higher Time Frame Trading

• Understanding the higher time frame premise helps in developing skills for short-term trading.

• Having a major tide in one's favor makes other facets of trading easier.

Taking Profits

• Stop-loss orders originate at a 30 pip stop from the entry point.

• Once the position reaches 30 pips profit, take 50% off and move the stop-loss to break-even.

• The remaining balance can be targeted using Fibonacci extensions (127%, 162%, and potentially 200%).

• It is recommended to book profits at 127% and 162% of the swing being traded.

Using Ten-Year T-Notes for Yield Analysis

This section introduces using ten-year T-notes in conjunction with yield analysis. It mentions a weekly swing low formed at the 128 big figure for ten-year T-notes in March-April of a specific year.

Utilizing Ten-Year T-Notes

• Ten-year T-notes can be used alongside yield analysis.

• In March-April of a specific year, there was a weekly swing low formed at the 128 big figure for ten-year T-notes.

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The speaker discusses the relationship between bond yields and prices, as well as the impact of seasonal tendencies on the market.

Bond Yields and Prices

• When open interest declines and prices rally up, it indicates a drop in yield.

• There is an inverse relationship between bonds and bond yields. As bond prices rally, yields decline.

• A rally in bonds leads to a risk-off scenario, causing a flight to quality. This results in the dollar index rallying while risky assets decline.

• Seasonal tendencies suggest that there is a support level in April-May, leading to a rally during this time frame.

Five-Year Treasury Notes

• The five-year Treasury note shows a similar scenario as the ten-year Treasury note.

• There is a weekly optimal trade entry with a swing point low in April.

• The yield declines as the futures contract rallies higher.

• The dollar often leads Treasuries, so when Treasuries rally, the dollar tends to increase.

Bond Yield Triad

• By analyzing the five-year US Treasury note yield, UK five-year bond yield, and German five-year bond yield, we can observe patterns.

• In March/April, there was a higher high in the US Treasury yield compared to the UK and Germany. This indicates weakness in these markets.

• Tracking these yields provides confirmation for weaker British Pound and Euro prices and a potential rally in the dollar during April/May.

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The speaker emphasizes the importance of watching bond yields and their relationship with currencies during different times of the year.

Watching Yields

• Monitoring bond yields helps anticipate market movements.

• By tracking US Treasury yields, German futures contracts, and UK bonds, one can identify divergences that indicate market weakness or strength.

SMT Divergence

• SMT divergence refers to the disparity in yields between different markets.

• In April, there was a slide lower in yield, which translated into a rally in US Treasury notes.

• Removing one market from the analysis allows for clearer observation of divergences.

Impact on Currencies

• The observed divergences add confidence to the expectation of weaker British Pound and Euro prices and a potential rally in the dollar during April/May.

• Monitoring bond yields helps anticipate currency movements and seasonal influences.

New Section

The speaker continues discussing the relationship between bond yields and currencies, emphasizing the importance of observing yield divergences.

Yield Divergences

• Comparing US and UK five-year yields reveals a divergence in April, indicating weakness.

• By removing one market from analysis, such as UK bonds, it becomes easier to observe yield disparities.

Currency Implications

• Yield divergences provide confirmation for weaker British Pound and Euro prices.

• Observing bond yields helps anticipate currency movements during different times of the year.

Conclusion

The transcript discusses the relationship between bond yields and prices, highlighting how rallies in bonds lead to declines in yields. Seasonal tendencies are also mentioned, suggesting support levels that can lead to rallies during specific time frames. The importance of monitoring bond yields is emphasized, particularly when analyzing divergences between different markets. These yield divergences can provide insights into potential currency movements.

New Section

This section discusses the yield comparison between the UK and Germany, highlighting the differences in their highs and weaknesses.

Yield Comparison between UK and Germany

• The German and UK yields did not reach comparable highs between December and March. The UK was able to trade higher while the German yield was weaker.

• The weakness in the German yield accelerated in June and July, with no interest in chasing higher yields.

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This section focuses on analyzing the price levels of the fiber (German) based on its yield, comparing it to the cable (UK).

Price Levels Analysis

• The underlying weakness in the German yield is reflected in the trading of the fiber.

• There was a lack of participation or interest in higher yields for a period of time.

• Selling pressure intensified from June to mid-July.

New Section

This section introduces bar chart dot-com as a free website providing access to commodities, commitment of traders reports, and open interest.

Introduction to Bar Chart Dot-com

• Bar chart dot-com is a free website that offers access to commodities and commitment of traders reports.

• It provides charts for various contracts, such as the US Dollar Index.

• Users can customize charts by selecting parameters like frequency, contract month, candlesticks, and time range.

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This section explains how to set up a customized chart using weekly ranges derived from the nearby contract month of the US Dollar Index.

Setting Up Customized Chart

• Selecting the top contract month (e.g., December) for customization based on trading preferences.

• Set frequency to weekly nearest for a chart based on weekly ranges using nearby contract data.

• Choose candlesticks as the chart type and set the time range to one year.

• Ensure that the chart displays total volume.

New Section

This section explores the weekly chart of the US Dollar Index, focusing on price movements and open interest.

Analysis of Weekly Chart

• The purple line represents total open interest for the dollar index, while vertical red and green lines indicate volume.

• Price movement shows consolidation after a small retracement, with a range high and low in March-April.

• Seasonal tendencies suggest weakness in the British Pound during springtime, which corresponds to a rally in the dollar.

• Declining open interest during consolidation indicates commercial traders' expectation of higher prices.

New Section

This section discusses how declining open interest during consolidation suggests an expectation of higher prices by commercial traders.

Understanding Open Interest

• Sharp drop in open interest during consolidation indicates commercials reducing their short positions.

• Commercial traders expect higher prices when they lessen their short positions.

• Adding commitment of traders line chart provides further insight into declining open interest and commercials' behavior.

New Section

This section explains how to use commitment of traders line chart to confirm insights from declining open interest.

Confirmation through Commitment of Traders Line Chart

• The commitment of traders line chart confirms declining open interest as commercials reduce their shorts.

• The red line represents commercials, while declining open interest suggests an expectation of higher prices.

New Section

In this section, the speaker discusses the support level of 79 in the dollar and its implications for higher prices. They also mention a potential risk-off scenario that could lead to buying safe haven assets.

Dollar Strength and British Pound Weakness (0:41:51 - 0:44:07)

• The speaker notes that there is a key support level at 79 in the dollar, which suggests the possibility of higher prices.

• They mention that during the April-May timeframe, the dollar rallied up, indicating a bullish outlook.

• The speaker compares this to the British Pound's performance during the same period and highlights a price drop in April-May.

• They identify an optimal trade entry area based on price levels and note that implied resistance may be expected.

• The speaker points out that there was a breakout from a trading range but emphasizes the rapid increase in open interest.

• They explain how this increase in open interest within a larger trading range indicates uncertainty in market direction.

• The concept of being "inside the range" is discussed as it relates to both currencies.

New Section

In this section, the speaker focuses on analyzing commercial traders' positions and their impact on market trends.

Commercial Traders' Positions (0:44:07 - 0:46:52)

• The speaker explains that they will look at commercial traders' positions to confirm market trends.

• They discuss how increasing open interest should be accompanied by an increase in net short selling or a reduction in net long positions by commercial traders.

• A chart showing commercial commitment of traders is added to observe changes in their positions over time.

• By analyzing both open interest and commercial traders' positions, they confirm their suspicion of a fake-out rally in May for the British Pound.

• The net short position held by commercial traders indicates their expectation of a top forming in the British Pound during a seasonal timeframe.

New Section

In this section, the speaker examines the Euro and its relationship with the dollar and British Pound.

Euro Analysis (0:47:18 - 0:48:38)

• The speaker shifts focus to the Euro and notes that it showed divergence from the dollar and British Pound during a seasonal period.

• They mention that there is also a trading range present in the Euro's price action.

• The inverse relationship between the dollar, British Pound, and Euro is highlighted as an important factor to consider.

Timestamps are provided for each section to help locate specific parts of the video.

New Section

In this section, the speaker discusses the relationship between open interest and price movements in the euro. They also analyze the behavior of commercial traders using commitment of traders (CoT) data.

Open Interest and Price Movements

• Open interest increased during a specific time frame in the euro, indicating potential consolidation.

• The speaker expects weaker prices due to the increase in open interest.

• An optimal trade entry was observed at the beginning of April, coinciding with a seasonal weakness in the dollar.

Commercial Traders and CoT Data

• The speaker introduces CoT data and its relevance to understanding market trends.

• Commercials were adding to their net long positions during a period when prices were declining.

• There was no significant increase in selling between April and May, suggesting a lack of confirmation between commercials and open interest.

• Looking at three years of CoT data, it is evident that commercials have maintained a large net long position for an extended period.

New Section

In this section, the speaker continues discussing commercial traders' behavior using CoT data. They analyze changes in net long positions and their implications for market movements.

Changes in Net Long Positions

• While there was a slight reduction in net long positions going into April, there was no indication of additional short-selling.

• The scale on the three-year chart shows how open interest increased while commercials lessened their longs, indicating an increasing short position.

• This confirms that weaker prices were expected based on both open interest and commercial traders' behavior.

New Section

In this section, the speaker combines insights from open interest analysis and interest rate markets to anticipate weaker prices for cable and fiber currencies. They also discuss setting up short positions for summer months.

Macro View and Interest Rate Markets

• Combining CoT open interest analysis with seasonal tendencies, there is support for weaker cable and fiber currencies and a stronger dollar in the spring.

• This aligns with previous insights from interest rate markets.

• With this macro view in place, the speaker suggests looking for short positions going into the summer months.

New Section

In this section, the speaker focuses on analyzing the dollar index to identify potential trade opportunities. They discuss seasonal tendencies and upside momentum for the dollar.

Dollar Index Analysis

• The speaker zooms in on the April month of 2012 to analyze seasonal tendencies for a decline in the British Pound and a risk-off scenario.

• An optimal trade entry is identified at 178.85, indicating potential upside momentum for the dollar.

• Upside objectives are set based on previous highs.

• Weakness in stock indices further supports a risk-off scenario.

New Section

In this section, the speaker discusses SMT divergence between stock indices and underlying weakness. They also mention Dow Theory's suggestion of waning momentum.

SMT Divergence and Underlying Weakness

• SMT divergence is observed between stock indices, with lower highs seen in S&P and Nasdaq Composite Index compared to a modestly higher high in Dow.

• This indicates underlying weakness and suggests a possible retracement lower based on Dow Theory's suggestion of waning momentum.

New Section

In this section, the speaker concludes by discussing what happened after analyzing previous points. They emphasize that understanding market dynamics can help anticipate price movements.

Market Dynamics Conclusion

• The speaker highlights how analyzing open interest, CoT data, interest rate markets, and SMT divergence can provide insights into market dynamics.

• By understanding these dynamics, traders can anticipate and potentially profit from price movements.

The transcript provided does not cover the entire video.

New Section

In this section, the speaker discusses upside objectives for the dollar and the importance of using a higher macro view analysis approach to trading.

Dollar Upside Objectives

• The speaker identifies potential areas where price may shoot up for the dollar.

• They mention using the 160-extension and 200-extension as objectives once price breaks above a certain high swing.

• It is emphasized that a higher macro view analysis approach is crucial for trading success.

New Section

This section focuses on using Fibonacci retracement levels to determine upside objectives in trading.

Using Fibonacci Retracement Levels

• The speaker explains that when looking at larger magnitude price swings, it is important to use Fibonacci retracement levels.

• They suggest using the fib tool from a high point to the lowest low in a fractal to identify potential upside objectives.

• Specifically, they mention looking for the 127-extension and 162-extension as targets.

New Section

Here, the speaker highlights the value of using a higher macro view analysis approach in trading and how it can be applied to different asset classes.

Value of Macro View Analysis

• The speaker emphasizes that using a higher macro view analysis approach can provide valuable insights into various asset classes.

• They mention that if an event unfolds in one asset class (e.g., dollar), similar patterns should be observed in reverse for other asset classes (e.g., Dow Jones, S&P 500, Nasdaq).

• By analyzing these correlations, traders can make more informed decisions.

New Section

This section explores how different assets react during specific time frames and highlights divergence between currency pairs.

Reaction of Different Assets

• The speaker notes that the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all experienced a slip lower, confirming the upward momentum in the dollar.

• They mention that during a specific time frame (April), the cable (GBP/USD) was able to make a higher high while the fiber (EUR/USD) posted weaker technicals.

• The speaker highlights divergence between correlated currency pairs and how it can indicate relative strength or weakness.

New Section

This section further explores the divergence between the fiber (EUR/USD) and cable (GBP/USD) currency pairs.

Divergence Between Fiber and Cable

• The speaker compares technicals of the fiber and cable currency pairs during April.

• They note that despite being closely correlated, there was no interest in going long on the fiber, making it weaker compared to the cable.

• The speaker mentions previous reviews where they discussed this market being weaker during that time frame.

New Section

Here, the speaker analyzes price swings in both fiber and cable to determine their relative strength.

Analyzing Price Swings

• The speaker compares highs in February and April for both fiber and cable.

• They point out that while February's high was lower than April's high in the fiber, it was higher in the cable.

• This indicates that the cable was relatively stronger during this period.

New Section

In this section, the speaker discusses trading opportunities based on sell scenarios using Fibonacci retracement levels.

Sell Scenario with Fiber

• The speaker suggests looking for selling opportunities with the fiber based on Fibonacci retracement levels.

• They mention optimal trade entry points within certain price ranges.

• It is noted that these decisions are based on an intermediate-term basis rather than short-term trading.

New Section

This section focuses on the cable's price swing and the speaker's previous recommendation to short it.

Cable Price Swing

• The speaker highlights a larger price swing in the cable and how it retraced within a specific time frame.

• They mention a specific fib level (70.5) that price reached, confirming their earlier recommendation to short at 163.

• It is noted that this decline aligns with the expected seasonal time frame.

New Section

Here, the speaker discusses resistance levels and weakness in price swings.

Resistance Levels and Weakness

• The speaker explains that when price reaches higher time frame implied resistance levels, weakness can be expected.

• They mention the importance of considering retracement levels and anticipating potential weaknesses in price movements.

New Section

This section compares highs and lows between different currency pairs to identify potential trends.

Comparing Highs and Lows

• The speaker compares highs and lows between the dollar, cable, and fiber currency pairs.

• They note lower lows in the dollar compared to higher highs in the cable, indicating bearishness for the fiber.

• This information helps traders align their positions based on trends observed across correlated pairs.

New Section

In this section, SMT divergence is discussed as an indicator of possible large price swings.

SMT Divergence

• The speaker mentions SMT divergence between US DX (dollar index) and Euro FX (fiber).

• This indicates a potentially large bearish price swing for the fiber.

• Traders can use this information to make informed decisions about their positions.

New Section

Here, the speaker highlights a specific price point where the fiber reached before falling.

Price Point and Decline

• The speaker identifies a specific price point that the fiber reached before experiencing a decline.

• They mention that price fell below a certain low, confirming the downward movement.

• Fibonacci concepts are used to analyze these price movements.

Short Term Trading Opportunities

In this section, the speaker discusses short-term trading opportunities and optimal trade entries for getting short in the market.

Shorting at Old Support Turned Resistance

• Price corrects and trades up into old support turned resistance.

• This provides an optimal trade entry to get short.

• The speaker mentions that this is jumping ahead to the short-term trading part of the series.

Seasonal Time Period and SMT Divergence

• The speaker suggests that entering into the seasonal time period and looking for SMT divergence can be another avenue to get short.

• If one missed the previous opportunity, this is another chance to enter a short position.

Profit Potential

• The speaker highlights that from the original high in April down to the 162 extension, there was a movement of 1230 pips.

• With the second entry using the first of May area, there was a potential gain of 1150 pips.

Patience and Holding Positions

• It is emphasized that holding on to positions and having patience is crucial when trading these moves.

• While it may take time for these trades to unfold, they can result in significant pip hauls.

Analyzing Lower Timeframes

In this section, the speaker analyzes lower timeframes and looks at price movements within specific levels.

Cable's Inside Range Concept

• When price gets up into the inside range concept around 163, it becomes a significant level.

• This level aligns with USD excess MT (Market Timing) and correlative pair SMT (Smart Money Tool).

Hourly Chart Analysis

• Price trades up into 163 figure, then trades off.

• It finds short-term support at a certain level but eventually breaks down below it.

• Price then comes back up to the same level and encounters it as resistance before sliding away.

Daily Swing Point

• The speaker introduces day separators to identify swing points.

• If one missed shorting at 163 figure, they can look for a short entry beyond the daily swing point.

Weekly Swing High

• There are higher price swing points on the weekly basis, indicating a weekly swing high.

• These swing highs contribute to more aggressive downward price movement.

Weekly Swing High and Optimal Trade Entry

In this section, the speaker discusses the significance of weekly swing highs and optimal trade entries based on Fibonacci retracement levels.

Weekly Swing High and Accelerated Price Movement

• When there is a high, lower high, and lower high on a weekly basis, it indicates a weekly swing high.

• This leads to accelerated price movement in a downward direction.

Monday to Tuesday's London Open Strategy

• Using the concept of capturing explosive profits in Forex, the speaker suggests looking for trade opportunities from Monday to Tuesday's London open.

• By identifying the high of the week during this time period, one can use it as a reference for potential short positions.

Overlapping Fib Levels

• The speaker highlights that there is a 79.7% retracement level on top of the higher timeframe fib level.

• This overlapping fib level on both daily and hourly charts provides an optimal trade entry point.

Fractal Nature of Price Movements

In this section, the speaker emphasizes understanding how price movements can be fractal and analyzes turning points in higher timeframe charts.

Understanding Fractal Nature of Price Movements

• The speaker explains that price movements can exhibit fractal characteristics.

• It is important to spend time analyzing higher timeframe charts and identifying specific turning points.

Seasonal Decline in April

• The speaker refers to a seasonal decline in April and highlights a lower high going into the beginning of the month.

• By using the high and low points, one can observe how price breaks down from certain levels.

Smaller Optimal Trade Entries

• The speaker mentions that there are smaller optimal trade entries within the same area.

• These smaller entries provide additional opportunities for short positions.

The transcript provided is incomplete, and some parts may be missing context.

Analyzing Price Movements in Fiber

In this section, the speaker discusses the opportunity to short a certain level and how price fell significantly. They also mention the importance of identifying optimal trade entries based on fractal patterns.

Shorting Opportunity and Optimal Trade Entry

• A shorting opportunity was identified at a certain level.

• Price fell significantly after the short position was taken.

• The bounce at an old low provided an optimal trade entry point.

• Fractal patterns can be used to identify higher timeframe trends and smaller factors within them.

Setting Tracing Levels for Trade Entry

The speaker explains how they set tracing levels for trade entry and provides an example of a small price swing that resulted in a trade entry.

Setting Tracing Levels

• Tracing levels are set to determine trade entry points.

• An example is given of a small price swing that resulted in a trade entry.

Price Breakdown and Market Structure Shift

The speaker discusses how price breaks down from larger timeframe fractals and emphasizes the importance of waiting for retests before making trading decisions.

Price Breakdown and Retests

• Price breaks down from larger timeframe fractals at certain price swings.

• After breaking below a support level, it is important to wait for a retest before making trading decisions.

• Another optimal trade entry can be found during the retest.

Long-term and Intermediate-term Price Swings

The speaker highlights how tools on a macro view help identify long-term and intermediate-term price swings. They also mention using short-term analysis concepts for intraday optimal trade entries.

Using Tools for Price Swings

• Tools on a macro view help identify long-term and intermediate-term price swings.

• Short-term analysis concepts can be used for intraday optimal trade entries.

• Weekly high and low levels can be used to capture trends.

Capturing Weekly Highs and Lows

The speaker explains how to capture weekly highs and lows in bullish environments using the Monday-Tuesday long and open or the latest Wednesday's London open.

Capturing Weekly Highs and Lows

• In bullish environments, use the Monday-Tuesday long and open for capturing the weekly high.

• Use the latest Wednesday's London open for capturing the weekly low.

• Getting in sync with the market is important for holding onto trades.

Separate Accounts for Long-term Swing Trading

The speaker suggests having separate accounts for long-term swing trading while still engaging in short-term trading. They emphasize setting stops outside of potential striking distance to avoid missing out on profitable moves.

Separate Accounts for Long-term Swing Trading

• It is recommended to have separate accounts for long-term swing trading and short-term trading.

• Set stops outside of potential striking distance to avoid missing out on profitable moves.

Scaling Out Profits at Fib Levels

The speaker discusses scaling out profits at Fibonacci (fib) levels, such as 127, 162, and 200 extensions. They also mention not trailing down too tightly and learning to scale out profits gradually.

Scaling Out Profits at Fib Levels

• Scale out profits at fib levels such as 127, 162, and 200 extensions.

• Avoid trailing down too tightly.

• Learn to scale out profits gradually based on predetermined levels.

Analyzing Cable Price Swings

The speaker analyzes cable price swings using fib levels and explains the importance of considering previous price swings before making trading decisions.

Analyzing Cable Price Swings

• Analyze cable price swings using fib levels.

• Consider previous price swings before making trading decisions.

Scaling Off Positions at Extensions

The speaker discusses scaling off positions at extensions, such as 127, 162, and 200 extensions. They provide examples of different strategies for taking profits at these levels.

Scaling Off Positions at Extensions

• Scale off positions at extensions like 127, 162, and 200.

• Different strategies can be used to take profits at these levels.

Freestyling with Analysis Concepts

The speaker encourages freestyling with analysis concepts and emphasizes the importance of using higher timeframe macro views to anticipate price moves. They also mention other videos that cover optimal trade entries and high probability price patterns.

Freestyling with Analysis Concepts

• Freestyle with analysis concepts to develop your own trading approach.

• Use higher timeframe macro views to anticipate price moves.

• Other videos cover optimal trade entries and high probability price patterns.