What Makes a Trader Special?

Insights on Trading Psychology

• The speaker highlights the unique calmness of a trader, describing it as "extremely deadly" because it allows for focused decision-making without emotional distractions.

• The speaker confidently claims expertise in trading, referring to it as "legalized bank robbing," emphasizing their skill and success in high-pressure situations.

Community Updates and Changes

• A notification is shared regarding changes in the Discord server structure, eliminating general access to streamline user experience.

• The private chat room has been renamed to simply "chat room," consolidating communication among users for better organization.

• New channels will be created for trading models, including examples and teachings related to specific strategies like the silver bullet ATM model.

Analyzing Market Conditions

Current Market Overview

• The speaker discusses recent market behavior, noting that trading has remained stagnant within a specific range over the past week.

• On the daily chart analysis, previous day's highs are identified as potential points of interest but not prioritized for immediate action.

Trading Strategy Considerations

• Emphasis is placed on lower price interests due to current market conditions being described as operating within a "deep premium."

• The speaker expresses caution about participating in trades at higher prices unless there is clear evidence of upward trends with reduced risk.

Pre-Market Analysis

Preparing for Market Open

• Focus shifts to identifying liquidity pools and potential breakout scenarios just before market open, indicating strategic planning based on observed patterns.

Market Analysis and Trading Strategies

Observations on Trading Hours

• The speaker notes that they did not engage with a liquidity pool during regular trading hours, preferring to observe market behavior for potential weaknesses.

• They are monitoring an imbalance in the market, indicating a desire for prices to drop below this level due to being in a "deep premium" and having trapped traders.

Discord Trading Preferences

• A question arises about why the speaker does not trade live in Discord; they mention testing it but found mixed results.

• The majority of participants prefer YouTube streams over Discord for trading discussions, citing simplicity and manageable delays.

Market Sentiment and Predictions

• The speaker expresses disinterest in higher price levels today, focusing instead on seeking lower prices as the weekend approaches.

• They acknowledge that while bullish trends can occur, they typically expect a rejection from current highs based on historical patterns.

Daily Chart Insights

• The speaker reflects on the daily chart's clarity post-bank holiday, hoping for movement outside of current ranges to facilitate next week's trading.

• They emphasize the importance of avoiding starting next week within a "sloppy little range," preferring upward trends to set up future opportunities.

Personal Trading Approach

• The speaker shares their reluctance to trade on Fridays unless necessary, noting they've already completed four trades this week.

• Despite falling short of their weekly profit goal due to external factors like bank holidays, they remain cautious about pushing trades further into Friday.

Short Selling Strategy Discussion

• The focus shifts back to market analysis as the speaker looks for shorts based on bearish order blocks while clarifying that their insights are not signals for others.

Trading Insights and Fair Value Gaps

Observing Market Dynamics

• The speaker is logged into a live broker account but is currently observing market movements rather than trading. They emphasize the importance of focusing on the sell side.

• Different colors are used to denote fair value gaps: gray indicates a suspect gap that should fail, blue suggests a discount array for upward movement, and red implies downward movement.

Analyzing Fair Value Gaps

• The speaker discusses their strategy regarding inversion fair value gaps, preferring to see them remain open while monitoring price action in relation to these gaps.

• A specific price level (22.71) is highlighted as critical; any closing above this level would be concerning for the current bearish outlook.

Paper Trading and Strategy Testing

• The speaker offers to demonstrate paper trading by switching accounts, clarifying that they are not using real funds and have completed their trades for the week.

• Emphasizes that this demo account serves as practice rather than actual trading, with no financial risk involved.

Identifying Resistance Levels

• The speaker aims to find resistance within a fair value gap located in the lower half of an inversion fair value gap, indicating potential order blocks or break zones.

• They note that if prices breach certain levels within these gaps, it could raise caution about maintaining short positions.

Risk Management Strategies

• Discusses how breaching midpoint levels can alter trade dynamics; it may not invalidate bearish sentiment but requires more cautious risk management.

• Highlights logical profit-taking levels based on relative equal lows observed in market structure.

Execution and Trade Management

• Clarifies that this demonstration is intended for educational purposes within a Discord channel focused on trading strategies rather than personal gain.

• Plans to document various trade examples for study purposes, emphasizing the importance of seeing real-time executions instead of just theoretical models.

Adjusting Positions and Stop Losses

• After taking partial profits at minor sell-side liquidity levels, the speaker adjusts their stop loss accordingly to protect gains while allowing room for further movement.

• Shares experiences with common trading errors during live demonstrations, reinforcing the need for careful execution when managing trades.

Conclusion on Trading Practices

Trading Insights and Strategies

Overview of Tmaine's Model

• Tmaine's model focuses on trading based on specific opening prices, particularly the midnight open. If the price is above this level, traders should only look for short positions.

• When the price is above both the midnight open and the 8:30 open, shorts taken at these levels are classified as a tier 2 setup. The strategy involves taking partial profits while leaving a small position to run towards sell-side liquidity.

Live Trading Discussion

• The speaker clarifies that they do trade live but uses a paper account for demonstration purposes. They emphasize that their commentary is not intended as signals but rather educational examples.

• The intention behind using a paper account is to provide real-time examples in the Discord channel for members to study and learn from actual market conditions.

Trade Management Techniques

• The speaker discusses managing trades by taking partial profits at logical levels before reaching ultimate targets, emphasizing risk management and strategic exits.

• They highlight the importance of recognizing relative equal lows as potential areas for taking partial profits instead of holding out for distant targets.

Clarifying Trading Intentions

• A participant questions whether it would be beneficial to explain trading plans before executing trades. The speaker responds affirmatively, stating they had outlined their intentions clearly prior to entering any positions.

• They reiterate their focus on shorts and how they anticipated certain market movements based on previous highs being tripped by long traders.

Weekly Profit Withdrawal Strategy

• The speaker shares their approach to profit withdrawal, typically taking out around 70%-80% of weekly earnings while allowing some growth in their account balance.

Trading Insights and Strategies

Overview of Recent Trading Experience

• The speaker reflects on a challenging trading day, noting they were stopped out of their short position twice but managed to secure two wins later in the week, indicating an overall positive outcome.

Understanding Session Bias and Fair Value

• Emphasizes the importance of session bias in trading decisions, explaining how top-down analysis from daily to five-minute charts informs their strategy.

• Discusses identifying premium gaps at market open and recognizing key price levels that indicate potential buy or sell opportunities during regular trading hours.

Breakout Traders vs. Retail Traders

• Describes the behavior of breakout traders who aim to capitalize on resistance levels, highlighting that most retail traders are likely positioned long when prices rise above certain highs.

• Explains the logic behind selling into breakout trades by anticipating that retail traders will be trapped in losing positions if prices reverse after hitting resistance.

Trade Execution and Strategy Adjustments

• The speaker outlines their approach to managing trades by trailing stop losses above bearish order blocks, emphasizing risk management techniques.

• Mentions using specific candlestick patterns as indicators for setting stop losses and adjusting strategies based on market conditions.

Market Analysis Techniques

• Highlights the significance of emotional control in trading success, suggesting that mastering emotions is crucial for effective decision-making.

• Discusses analyzing balanced price ranges and inefficiencies within those ranges to inform bearish or bullish strategies.

Final Thoughts on Trading Performance

• Celebrates successful trades throughout the week, encouraging community engagement by inviting viewers to share their experiences.

Trade Breakdown and Analysis

Introduction to the Trade Breakdown

• The speaker introduces a trade breakdown, indicating that viewers will see behind-the-scenes processes, including an intro.

Market Conditions and Trading Strategy

• Discussion on market inefficiencies; the speaker mentions being unaffected by 4-hour or 1-hour charts if in a sell program, suggesting confidence in their trading strategy.

Purpose of the Trade Example

• The trade example is intended for educational purposes within a Discord channel, aimed at helping future members understand the New York ATM model.

Preparing for the Breakdown

• Emphasizes that this live example will serve as study material for new Discord members who join later, enhancing their learning experience.

Technical Setup for Analysis

• The speaker prepares to annotate their entry and exit points while ensuring clarity for viewers on YouTube. They plan to simplify some elements like the old day opening gap.

Analyzing Chart Data

• Focus shifts to technical analysis with attention on 15-minute and daily charts; preparations are made to hide execution details until they are discussed.

Initial Observations on Daily Chart

• The speaker notes a "nasty range" on the daily chart with a neutral bias, indicating limited annotations due to current market conditions.

Intraday Trading Focus

• Transitioning to intraday trading strategies, highlighting key opening prices (midnight and 8:30 AM), which dictate trading decisions throughout the day.

Premium Gap Analysis

• The speaker identifies being in a "deep premium," stating no interest in long positions today; only shorts or no trades are considered viable options based on market conditions.

Regular Trading Hours Insights

• A detailed look at regular trading hours begins; emphasis is placed on understanding price movements post-market open at 9:30 AM.

Market Analysis and Trading Strategy Breakdown

Opening Range and Market Conditions

• The speaker discusses the opening range gap, noting that the market opened higher than the previous day's close, indicating a premium gap. This suggests potential downward movement.

• A "Judah swing" is introduced, where the market opens at 9:30 and trades higher despite expectations of lower prices due to being in a premium. The speaker emphasizes not chasing this upward move.

• The speaker expresses disinterest in participating in a trending day if it means buying at high prices, reinforcing their trading model which avoids expensive entries.

• Observations are made about retail traders likely going long above recent highs due to perceived resistance levels, creating an opportunity for contrarian strategies.

• The concept of pairing orders is highlighted; as retail traders buy above certain highs, the speaker plans to sell into that buying pressure.

Technical Analysis Insights

• Transitioning to a one-minute chart for deeper analysis, the speaker notes relative equal highs and expresses dissatisfaction with their current video explanation quality.

• The need for clarity in communication is emphasized; if explanations confuse viewers or don't meet quality standards, they will be re-recorded.

• A brief introduction of Tmaine's trading approach is provided, focusing on daily charts showing tight consolidation and lack of significant movement.

Premium Market Dynamics

• On the 15-minute chart, two key opening prices are identified. Being above both indicates a deep premium situation where long positions are discouraged by Tmaine's trading model.

Understanding Market Dynamics and Trading Strategies

Opening Range Gap Analysis

• The discussion begins with an analysis of a five-minute chart during regular trading hours, focusing on the opening range gap. The speaker notes that the market is in a premium state as it is above both the midnight open and the 8:30 open.

• At 9:30, there is a gap higher, followed by some downward movement before trading up again. This upward movement above the 9:30 opening price is identified as a "Judah swing," which the speaker intends to fade rather than buy.

Retail Trader Behavior

• The majority of retail traders (90%) rely on simple support and resistance logic. They perceive certain price levels as resistance zones, expecting sell-offs when prices reach these areas.

• There are two groups of traders: those who see resistance and expect a sell-off, and breakout traders who look to go long if prices break through these highs. The speaker emphasizes their bearish stance against this prevailing bullish sentiment.

Premium Gaps and Liquidity Pools

• Retail traders often anticipate that breaking through resistance will turn it into support. However, the speaker argues against this logic due to existing market conditions indicating a premium gap opening at 9:30.

• As prices rise after gapping higher at 9:30, many traders chase this upward movement believing it signifies strength. The speaker plans to short into this buying pressure since they believe willing buyers exist above recent highs.

Chart Insights and Order Blocks

• Transitioning to a one-minute chart reveals further insights post-open at 9:30. The speaker clarifies they are not looking to buy into fair value gaps but instead aim to capitalize on fading retail trader behavior.

• Key liquidity levels such as old weekly highs/lows from the past three weeks are highlighted as significant reference points for algorithmic trading strategies. These levels indicate where liquidity pools may exist in current market conditions.

Shorting Strategy Execution

• After identifying bearish order blocks based on candle formations, the speaker executes short positions while monitoring price action closely for signs of consolidation or reversal patterns.

• A specific inversion fair value gap is discussed; if prices trade higher into this area without sustaining momentum, it would allow breakout traders to profit—something contrary to smart money principles that favor fading such moves.

Trade Breakdown and Weekly Forecast

Key Insights from the Trade

• The speaker emphasizes the importance of focusing on sell-side opportunities as soon as they began trading in a one-minute chart, indicating a strategic approach to market analysis.

• A partial exit was executed at the sell side, aligning with Tmaine's model, which suggests leaving a runner to the midnight opening price for potential further gains.

• The speaker plans to share footage of the trade for educational purposes, highlighting their commitment to transparency within their Discord community.

Community Engagement and Future Plans

• The speaker expresses gratitude towards Discord members and reflects on a productive week of trading while preparing to send out a weekly forecast for upcoming trades.

• They mention that clean price action was observed during the Fed Chair's morning session, which led to unexpected trading opportunities.

• The speaker advises against looking for reversals based on current daily chart conditions, suggesting that traders should be cautious and consider waiting for better setups.

Closing Remarks