Bitcoin Market Update [30MAR23] Full version

Introduction

The speaker introduces the topic of geopolitics and its connection to economics, specifically in relation to the FEMA program.

Geopolitics and Economics

• The speaker discusses how geopolitics is connected to every aspect of daily life, including currencies, products, jobs, education, etc.

• The speaker mentions the FEMA program created by the FED that allows other central banks to get liquidity in U.S. dollars using U.S. treasuries as collateral.

• The speaker briefly mentions China and Russia's security block.

• The speaker talks about Brazil being part of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), which is a potential geopolitical alliance.

Geopolitics vs Theory

The speaker discusses their background in economics and how they became interested in geopolitics due to its practical application.

Geopolitics vs Theory

• The speaker talks about their background in international economics and how they were always interested in how economic theories worked in reality.

• They mention that professors would often focus on models and theories rather than practical applications.

• This led them to become more interested in geopolitics since it covers every aspect of daily life.

Geopolitics Premier League

The speaker explains why geopolitics is important and compares it to the Premier League.

Importance of Geopolitics

• The speaker explains that geopolitics covers every single corner of daily life from currencies to education.

• They compare it to the Premier League because it is at the top level of politics and economics.

Geopolitics in Germany

The speaker talks about how geopolitics was viewed in Germany and how it led to the removal of a president.

Geopolitics in Germany

• The speaker mentions how a German president, who advocated for Germany to protect and defend its own interests on a geopolitical level, was removed from his position.

• They explain that this was due to the negative connotations associated with geopolitics because it reminded people of the Third Reich and Adolf Hitler.

Power and Money

The speaker discusses the connection between power and money throughout history.

Power and Money

• The speaker explains that historically, heroes or powerful figures always had enough money to support their cause.

• They give examples such as Ernesto "Che" Guevara's revolution in Cuba being supported by weapons and logistics from other countries.

Introduction to Geopolitics

The speaker discusses the role of geopolitics in global conflicts and how it is connected to natural resources and power.

Geopolitical Motivations

• Wars are often motivated by geopolitical interests, such as gaining access to natural resources or expanding a country's power.

• Germany's multi-front war during World War II was an example of a country under pressure from investors who wanted to cash out on their investments.

• The world is currently experiencing a shift from a unipolar world order dominated by the US to at least a bipolar world with China rising as another alpha nation.

Conflicts Arising from Multiple Alphas

• When there are multiple alphas in a group or on the global stage, conflicts can arise due to competition for power and influence.

• As China rises as another alpha nation, conflicts with the US may increase in the future.

Geopolitics and the Future of Trade

The US is preparing for a changing global order, and is using programs like FEMA to bring everything to a head without escalating into conflict. The US is creating a western block that will be led by them, but there may also be other blocks led by China and Russia.

The US's Position

• The US knows that the global order is changing too quickly to stop it.

• Programs like FEMA are being used to prepare for the future.

• Those who are against the US could potentially become targets for military conflict.

• The Western Bloc will get more US dollar liquidity for U.S treasuries collateral.

Germany's Relationship with Russia

• Germany was coming closer to Russia because of its gas, which was beneficial for both countries.

• However, this relationship was not beneficial for the US.

• Germany now depends on gas from different countries instead of just Russia.

Blocks Led by Different Countries

• There may be three blocks in the future: one led by the US, one led by China, and one led by Russia.

• Russia's goal is to create a trade route between Russia Iran and India while China has much more scope for their silk route.

Gold as an Alternative Currency

As countries prepare for a changing global order, gold may become an alternative currency. While some countries are buying up gold reserves, others are looking towards digital currencies backed by gold.

Buying Up Gold Reserves

• Russia and China are buying up gold reserves to stabilize their currencies.

• Those who are not part of the Western Bloc may also try to bring more gold into their central banks.

Digital Currencies Backed by Gold

• Donald Trump created a bill to back a digital Uso with gold, but this has not been mentioned by Biden.

• The US seems to want to maintain the current system they have.

A Big Transition

The changing global order will lead to a big transition that will escalate over time. It is a battle for leadership between different countries.

Escalation Over Time

• The changing global order will lead to escalation over time.

• It is a battle for leadership between different countries.

The Future of Decentralization and Cyber Attacks

In this section, the speaker discusses the advantages of decentralization and how it can lead to faster, better, and cheaper development. He also mentions that the future will not be easy for everyone and that we need to read between the lines.

Advantages of Decentralization

• Decentralization has many advantages.

• It can lead to faster, better, and cheaper development.

Regulation of Crypto Market

• The US is motivated to fight bad actors related to crypto.

• Regulation is necessary but there won't be one block regulation against another block regulation.

• Hong Kong is working on a global crypto regulation framework.

Military Conflicts Related to Transition

• The transition towards a common future will be extremely painful for all markets including crypto.

• It will bring more military conflicts and bloodshed.

Market Analysis

In this section, the speaker talks about market analysis using weights ratio 30 days moving average. He expresses frustration at the lack of big sell pressure despite indications that it should start rising soon.

Weights Ratio 30 Days Moving Average

• The weights ratio 30 days moving average is declining below 50k.

• There are indications that sell pressure should start rising soon but it hasn't happened yet.

• Stable coins are being sent to centralized exchanges to support and maintain current prices.

Pump and Dump Groups

In this section, the speaker discusses how pump and dump groups operate in the short term to unload more coins and make a profit. The speaker also notes that there has been little change in the price range of Bitcoin.

How Pump and Dump Groups Operate

• Pump and dump groups operate in the short term to unload more coins and make a profit.

• Before the pump and dump, there was an inflow of almost 5,500 Bitcoins at 10 pm to 11 pm. At 4 am, they pushed up very hard hitting 29,200 then dumped it to 28.

• Bears are reacting to what is happening with outflows of Bitcoins from centralized exchanges.

• They are taking off some Bitcoins this week today Thursday minus 8,238 Bitcoins.

Futures vs Spot Trading

In this section, the speaker discusses how futures trading is being used to support spot trading. The speaker also notes that it's incredible what they are doing with more futures while using spot really to support and distribute.

Futures vs Spot Trading

• Futures trading is being used to support spot trading.

• Open interest is reaching slowly but trying to go up hitting a level of November October November last year. We are right now above the level we had just in September for example leverage ratio of course also lifting up with open interest.

• If they start dumping nook I guess they will start liquidating a lot of late longs.

Stablecoin Netflow

In this section, the speaker discusses stablecoin netflow and how it's too early to say if they are preparing for the next leg up or down.

Stablecoin Netflow

• Stablecoin netflow indicates that we received a net flow of 112 million while the funding rate is declining.

• They are taking out much more Bitcoins from relative exchanges in the last three hours, and that's only the net flow.

• If they start dumping nook I guess they will start liquidating a lot of late longs.

Analysis of Market Trends

The speaker analyzes the current market trends and identifies the main sources of purchasing power.

Purchasing Power Sources

• Kraken, Gemini, and Coinbase are the main sources of purchasing power.

• The Asian market is not a significant factor in current market trends.

• Gamma walls at 28 and 29 indicate potential volatility between 28.2 and 29.

• High gamma wall at almost 300,000 suggests a potential decrease in price.

Long-Term Trades

• A trade for a price above 35k until end of June indicates confidence in long-term growth.

• Despite negative news related to regulation, traders remain confident in long-term growth.

Spread Analysis

The speaker analyzes various spreads to determine bullish or bearish sentiment.

Bullish Spreads

• A spread indicating a price above 35k until end of June suggests strong bullish sentiment.

• Even spreads indicating prices below 32k until end of September do not suggest bearish sentiment.

Short Diagonal Spread with Calls

• This strategy allows for profit from bearish prices while limiting risk.

Bitcoin Options Trading Analysis

In this section, the speaker discusses a bitcoin options trade and how it can limit risk. They also discuss the expectation of seeing a price below 34k until end of June.

Bitcoin Options Trade

• The bitcoin options trade can limit risk if the price goes down until end of June below 34k.

• The speaker mistakenly referred to the trade as "bull" instead of "beer."

• One single trade covered almost half of the whole premium, indicating that they are expecting to see a price below 34k.

Price Expectations

• The speaker expects the price to maintain or go below 34k until mid or end of the year but in case they surprise us in hitting 40K we can limit our loss.

• With this volume, they could push Bitcoin to one million. However, it is sickeningly high and crazy.

Bitcoin Options Trading Analysis Continued

In this section, the speaker continues discussing bitcoin options trading analysis and compares two different types of contracts.

Comparing Contracts

• There are two types of contracts for bitcoin trading - coin margin contracts and stablecoin margin contracts.

• Coin margin contracts use bitcoins as collateral while stablecoin margin contracts use stablecoins as collateral.

Bitcoin Options Trading Analysis Continued

In this section, the speaker analyzes everything that happened when they reached their peak at 29.2.

Analyzing Peak Performance

• Binance CBD is negative since then 33 million are aggregated even a little bit more 38 Million BUSD is positive.

• Bitcoin collateral futures have a CBD of minus 208 million, which is a lot compared to stablecoin's only 600 million.

• If we break the support area trend line, we should go down hitting 27.3.

Bitcoin Options Trading Analysis Continued

In this section, the speaker discusses how they can buy the dip and push up once again.

Buying the Dip

• It will be possible to buy the dip and push up once again in here.

• Stablecoins are coming in with inflows indicating that it may be possible to buy the dip.

Market Maker Entity Selling

The market maker entity is selling and the balances are declining. They are preparing for distribution.

Market Maker Balances

• The balances of a market maker is declining.

• The market maker entity has 935 Bitcoins, 1430 Bitcoins, 27 Bitcoins, 75 Bitcoins, 522 Bitcoins, 315 Bitcoins, 1370 Bitcoins and 195 Bitcoins.

• The market maker is selling and preparing for distribution.

Futures vs Spot Trading

Futures trading is being used more than spot trading by the market makers.

Ratios of Futures to Spot Trading

• The ratio between spots and futures has decreased from 0.347 to only 0.128 indicating that they are using much more futures at the moment than spot.

• This could be partly because they stopped watch training but in general it's what we are seeing with open interest up so it means they are using much more futures than sport just to support what they are going to make with.

• Fewer wealthy people are trading right now so just a few can drive the market with futures as no one is going to crash their party.

Coinbase Triggers Sell Order

Coinbase triggered their sell order at $29k and there's another big one at $30k.

Price Predictions

• Blue cold spreads now indicate $40k because if those actors in the US are now driving the market in the morning time it wouldn't surprise me.

• $25k is still in their opinion the next scope and they think they will go down to $25k.

• Bitstamp has a lot of volume hitting $31k even $31k and a bigger wall also at $22.5 but otherwise also $27, $20, and $26.

• Binance is protecting now at $29k also waiting here at 30k and also waiting here at 27 so I think 27 go down 27 maintain their oh we need to see really.

Centralized Exchanges Activity Declining

The activity on centralized exchanges is declining as they prepare for the end of zero fees promo.

Centralized Exchange Activity

• The activity on centralized exchanges is declining a lot since they started to prepare for the end of zero fees promo.

• Almost dumping OTC lift it up a little bit but just peanuts so also nothing to see here.

Market Analysis

The speaker discusses the current state of the market and their personal conclusion on trading strategy.

Waiting for Movement

• BTC/USD is private, nothing new.

• BTC/USDT is stagnant.

• Waiting at 28 and 26.5, reducing at 25.5.

• Triggers waiting at almost 30k.

Uncertainty in the Market

• Algos look terrible.

• Nothing has changed since yesterday, still waiting for movement.

• Personal conclusion is still bearish, but unsure of what will happen next.

• Considering removing this chapter as it no longer makes sense to provide personal conclusions without solid TA analysis.

Technical Analysis

• Solid trend line indicates a potential bounce before going down again.

• Funding rate is rising with open interest in leverage ratio.

Personal Conclusion

In this section, the speaker shares their personal opinion on trading in the market and why they stopped trading.

Trading in the Market

• The speaker believes that it doesn't make sense to trade in the market if you don't know what it's going to do next.

• They stopped trading because of this belief and their principles.