65. Market overview

Market Analysis and Upcoming News Events

Overview of Current Market Conditions

• The speaker expresses hope that the audience had a good weekend and mentions setups forming in the market with high probability, indicating an upcoming discussion on these setups.

• The absence of high-impact news (H news) events yesterday led to no live stream; however, there are several H news events scheduled for the week ahead.

Importance of Sequential Patterns

• The speaker emphasizes that 90% of the time, higher or lower weekly prices are formed through sequential patterns, highlighting their significance in market analysis.

• Understanding market sequences requires monitoring both sequential movements and intermarket correlations, which can be complex but essential for accurate predictions.

Anticipated Price Movements

• Wednesday and Thursday are identified as critical days where significant price movements may occur based on correlations between asset classes like gold and silver.

• The speaker notes that trading strategies should focus on moments when there is a clear correlation in the market, particularly around scheduled news events.

Trading Strategies Around News Events

• A specific example is given regarding tomorrow's CRMT event before 10 a.m., suggesting that engineered liquidity will likely lead to stable price movement rather than volatility.

• It’s noted that New York typically experiences more frequent H news events compared to London, which could influence trading strategies.

Managing Expectations During Volatility

• Traders are advised not to panic during volatile periods; understanding that failures often stem from human error rather than systematic issues can help maintain composure.

• Fridays are highlighted as days when prices tend to return within established ranges after H news events earlier in the week.

Current Market Dynamics

• The FX Triad is currently consolidating; despite this being challenging for traders, it remains possible to identify biases and expectations for future movements.

• Historical context indicates that current market conditions have been unusually stagnant over recent years compared to previous trends of more dynamic price movements.

Liquidity Considerations

• The US dollar index is noted as having more pronounced liquidity dynamics compared to other currencies within the FX Triad, influencing trading decisions significantly.

Market Analysis and Economic Insights

Observations on Bitcoin Price Movements

• The speaker discusses discrepancies in Bitcoin prices across exchanges, noting that Kraken may show a low while Binance does not, leading to subsequent price increases.

• Highlights the concept of volume imbalance as taught by ICT, emphasizing the importance of candle bodies in identifying liquidity gaps.

Importance of Highs and Market Conditions

• The speaker emphasizes the significance of clean highs on daily charts, suggesting that such patterns often indicate market completion.

• Mentions a recent W formation but expresses skepticism about dismissing clean highs due to their potential impact on liquidity.

Economic Concerns and Global Relations

• Discusses current economic conditions, indicating that if prices fall below certain levels (two-week open), higher prices could be anticipated.

• Expresses concerns about global economic stability, particularly regarding the US economy compared to growing economies like Russia and China.

Geopolitical Dynamics

• Reflects on improving relationships between Eastern countries (China, Russia, North Korea), suggesting they are moving away from reliance on the US dollar.

• Critiques US foreign policy actions that have led to tensions with these nations and highlights potential repercussions for the US economy.

Market Behavior and Trading Strategies

• Warns about potential volatility in markets due to geopolitical tensions and suggests caution when trading under these conditions.

• Describes how higher time frame sequential SMT (Smart Money Technique) can create confusion in market movements before lower time frame corrections occur.

Liquidity Pullbacks and Price Reversals

• Explains how price pullbacks within ranges can signal future movements; waiting for liquidity pulls is crucial for effective trading strategies.

• Introduces the "Magneto effect," where sequential SMT setups can lead traders to target specific flows based on previous price actions.

Correlation Observations

• Notes instances of cracking correlation where price fails to trade above certain highs, indicating possible gaps needing attention.

Market Dynamics and Price Action Analysis

Understanding Price Liquidity and Gaps

• The discussion begins with the concept of price taking liquidity, highlighting a gap created after this event on the daily time frame.

• After filling the gap, consolidation occurs, indicating typical market behavior where price stabilizes before making further moves.

Identifying Swing Points and Market Behavior

• The speaker emphasizes the need for precision swing points to predict future price movements effectively.

• Observations are made about current price action being influenced by sequential SMT (Smart Money Techniques), which keeps prices within a tight range.

Analyzing Reversal Signals

• A distinction is made regarding reversals; they require both precision swing points and significant range candles to be considered valid.

• High-impact news events are crucial for triggering significant price reversals, as illustrated by past examples.

Current Market Conditions and External Influences

• The speaker notes that current market fluctuations are not typical choppy behavior but rather reactions to geopolitical tensions, specifically referencing ongoing conflicts involving major powers.

• The U.S. involvement in supplying weapons to Ukraine is discussed as a factor influencing market dynamics amid global unrest.

Technical Analysis Insights

• A four-hour time frame gap from the previous quarter is identified as an important technical indicator for traders.

• Emphasis is placed on switching contracts for indices to ensure accurate trading strategies moving forward.

Sequential SMT and Time Frames

• Discussion includes how different SMT fills can occur based on time frames, stressing that effectiveness relies on proper sequencing in lower time frames.

Market Dynamics and Trading Patterns

Understanding Price Movements

• The speaker emphasizes the normalcy of recurring price patterns in trading, suggesting that traders should recognize these repetitions.

• A specific instance is discussed where price rose above a previous high before experiencing a significant drop, indicating the importance of recognizing key levels in market behavior.

Accumulation and Market Sentiment

• Prior to the price drop, there was an accumulation phase. This suggests that traders should be aware of market sentiment shifts before major movements occur.

• The concept of a "bull flag" is introduced, highlighting how retail traders might misinterpret certain patterns, which can lead to unexpected market outcomes.

Gaps and Liquidity

• The discussion includes how different time frames react to gaps in pricing. For example, 15-minute time frames respond similarly to 4-hour gaps.

• The speaker mentions liquidity as a critical factor in understanding market movements and highlights the significance of sequential smart money techniques (SMT).

Identifying False Signals

• A sequence is described where price fails to trade into a gap, indicating weakness. This serves as a warning for traders about potential false signals.

• The speaker addresses common misconceptions about SMT effectiveness, arguing that many failures stem from using incorrect or misleading indicators.

Consolidation Patterns

• Price consolidation is identified as a tell-tale sign for reversals; recognizing this can aid day traders in making informed decisions.

• Various trading instruments are suggested for analysis beyond traditional stocks, including cryptocurrencies and commodities like gold and silver.

Analyzing High-Low Structures

• A pattern emerges where higher lows transition into lower highs. This reflects on liquidity dynamics being manipulated within the market structure.

• Non-sequential SMT occurrences are flagged as potentially deceptive signals; thus, caution is advised when interpreting these patterns.

Market Structure Shifts

• When non-sequential patterns appear, they may indicate fake moves designed to lure traders into poor positions. Recognizing true opens becomes crucial here.

• Advanced strategies involving forward gaps and daily cycles are discussed as effective methods for identifying genuine trading opportunities.

Final Thoughts on Trading Strategies

• Observations on candle consolidations provide insights into potential future movements; discrepancies between different markets (e.g., NASDAQ vs others).

Market Analysis and Trading Strategies

Understanding Market Movements

• The speaker discusses the unpredictability of market movements, emphasizing that traders often cannot foresee price changes until they occur. They highlight the importance of using two assets for analysis.

• A strategy is introduced where traders look for price reversals after a high is reached. The focus is on waiting for price reactions to gaps in the market, indicating potential entry points for trades.

Simplifying Trading Concepts

• The speaker expresses a desire to help those who may struggle financially by providing simple trading setups. They believe that even basic strategies can empower individuals to make money despite potential losses.

• There’s a critique of complex trading teachings, suggesting that simpler methods could be more beneficial. The speaker aims to share insights that are accessible and practical for all traders.

Upcoming Engagement