President Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping Discuss Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

In this section, we learn about the phone conversation between President Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping regarding Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Discussion Focused on Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

• President Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke for nearly two hours on Friday.

• The discussion focused on Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

• China joined India, Iran, Pakistan, and 32 other nations from the global south in abstaining from a United Nations vote condemning Russia's war in Ukraine.

Failed Attempt to Break Emerging Alliance Between China and Russia

• President Biden hoped to encourage or pressure President Xi to back away from China's strong support for Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

• The meeting failed to break the emerging alliance between China and Russia which is shaking the current world order.

China Will Not Rupture Relations with Russia

• The Chinese ambassador to the United States affirmed that China is not going to rupture its relations with Russia.

• In essence, China is not going to blame or apply pressure on Russia. It affirms that Russia has legitimate security concerns in Ukraine that must be met.

Geopolitics of Eurasia

The United States is concerned about China's alignment with Russia and their proximity to each other. They believe that their alliance gives them such dominance on the massive Eurasian landmass that they can break US control over it and thereby break US global power.

China's Support for Russia

• The US is concerned that China will provide weaponry and financial support to Russia, which could break the financial embargo imposed by the US on Russia.

• Washington is monitoring flows of weapons and financial support from China to Russia.

Moscow and Beijing's Confidence

• Moscow and Beijing have an extraordinary confidence in their alliance and dominant position in the great landmass comprising 70% of the world's population and productivity.

• They believe that they are witnessing the birth of a new world order in which they will emerge as the new centers of global power on the planet.

• Their boldness and resistance to Washington's pressure stem from this belief.

Pursuing a Geopolitical Strategy

• Moscow and Beijing are pursuing a geopolitical strategy to break US control over Eurasia, something that has been maintained since the start of the Cold War in the early 1950s.

• They think that they can not only dominate Eurasia but also dominate international politics.

Dual Tracks: Diplomacy & Military Activity in Ukraine

The situation in Ukraine needs to be analyzed in dual tracks - diplomacy and military activity. While providing weapons, mounting financial pressure, or impacting situations on battlefields may have short-term impacts, Moscow and Beijing believe that being dominant powers in this great Eurasian landmass will slowly break US controls over it since its rise to global power after World War II was accompanied by dominance over Eurasia.

Impacting Situations on Battlefields

• Providing tank missiles, handheld weapons like stinger missiles that can bring down Russian helicopters and aircraft, or other weapons may have a short-term impact.

• The US is concerned about flows of weapon and financial support from China to Russia.

Pursuing a Geopolitical Strategy

• Moscow and Beijing are pursuing a geopolitical strategy to break US control over Eurasia, something that has been maintained since the start of the Cold War in the early 1950s.

• They think that they can not only dominate Eurasia but also dominate international politics.

The Decline of US Global Power and the Rise of China

In this section, Professor McCoy discusses the decline of US global power and the rise of China. He explains how Russia's alliance with China in energy politics could dent the US dollar's dominance in the global petroleum market, which has been one of the foundations of US global power since World War II. He also talks about how China's growing dominance over the global economy and its Belt and Road Initiative could shift power from Europe and the United States towards Asia.

Russia-China Alliance

• Russia is a major energy exporter while China is one of the world's leading energy importers.

• Since oil is the most negotiated international commodity, if Saudi Arabia prices some of its oil sales to China in yuan instead of dollars, it would dent the US dollar's dominance in the global petroleum market.

• Putin needs China's diplomatic and economic support for his Ukraine invasion, so he formed an alliance with China to push back against US dominance over Eurasia.

Shift in Global Power

• The decline of the dollar as a functional global reserve currency would lead to a decline in US global power.

• As China becomes more dominant over the global economy, its currency will play a bigger role in that economy.

• If China's Belt and Road Initiative succeeds in laying down infrastructure across Eurasia, it could draw commerce towards Beijing and shift power from Europe and the United States towards Asia.

• By 2030, it will become clear that US global powers have eclipsed and shifted to Beijing on Eurasia landmass.

Overall, Professor McCoy argues that we are witnessing a tectonic shift in global power, with US global power declining and China ascending.