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Proven Trading System with Backtesting Results
Overview of the Trading System
- The trading system has been personally tested through a backtest spanning four years, accounting for realistic entry and exit points along with fees to validate a 400% profit claim.
- This video not only serves as an instructional guide but also provides insights into the underlying thought processes and actual backtest results.
Community Engagement
- Viewers are encouraged to connect via Facebook or join a Discord group for discussions on trading setups and financial news.
- Short clips are available on TikTok and Instagram for those who prefer concise content.
Backtesting Methodology
Technical Setup
- The backtesting utilizes TradingView strategies converted into Python code, executed via command line using free CSV candlestick data from CCXT.
- This method significantly reduces manual backtesting time from days to mere seconds.
Membership Offerings
- A membership program is available that covers various topics including automated bot creation, accessible even for those without coding experience.
Analyzing Backtest Results
Initial Findings
- The initial results of the backtest will be demonstrated step-by-step, explaining each variable's impact on profitability.
Strategy Details
- The strategy employs the Ichimoku Cloud indicator in its second version, alongside filters like ADX and EMA 200 to refine signals.
Risk Management Techniques
Position Sizing
- A risk of 3% per trade is set; if starting capital is $100, only $3 would be risked per trade. As capital grows, so does the dollar amount at risk.
Fee Considerations
- Transaction fees are included in the model at 0.05% per trade leg to simulate real trading conditions accurately.
Trade Execution Rules
Order Management
- Stop loss is set at twice the ATR (Average True Range), while reward-to-risk ratio is maintained at 1:3.
Time Constraints
- Trades are closed after a maximum holding period of 480 hours to prevent capital being tied up indefinitely.
Validation Process in Backtesting
Avoiding Overfitting
- To prevent overfitting during testing, a validation split of 80% in-sample data and 20% out-of-sample data is used.
Performance Metrics
Profitability Analysis
- Total trades amounted to 208 with an approximate win rate of 35%-40%, yielding a net profit of around 400%.
Final Balance Insights
The final balance reached approximately $30,000 with high profit factors indicating strong performance metrics across both in-sample and out-of-sample tests.
Manual Trading Implementation
Platform Recommendation
The video promotes MyTrade as a commission-free platform suitable for various asset classes including Forex and commodities. New users can receive bonuses upon registration.
User Experience Features
- Users can easily deposit funds using QR codes or credit cards without currency exchange hassles.
Setting Up Indicators on TradingView
Indicator Configuration
- Instructions provided for setting up Ichimoku Cloud and EMA indicators on TradingView’s interface tailored for effective signal detection.
Additional Tools
- ADX indicator settings are discussed along with ATR Bands adjustments necessary for optimal stop-loss calculations.
Trade Entry Conditions
Short Position Criteria
- Specific conditions outlined include price action below Ichimoku Cloud, conversion lines crossing downwards, and confirmation by ADX above threshold levels before entering short positions.
Long Position Criteria
- Similar criteria apply inversely when considering long positions; all indicators must align favorably before executing trades.