Why we ignore obvious problems — and how to act on them | Michele Wucker

The Gray Rhino

In this section, the speaker introduces the concept of a "gray rhino" as a highly probable and obvious problem that is often neglected.

Introduction to the Gray Rhino

• A gray rhino is a highly probable and obvious problem that is often neglected.

• People are more likely to turn away from problems precisely because of the threat they represent.

• The speaker gives an example from economic policy where respected leaders and institutions sounded alarm bells about risky lending and dangerous market bubbles before the 2008 financial crisis.

The Black Swan vs. The Gray Rhino

• The black swan represents something unimaginable, unforeseeable, and completely improbable.

• The gray rhino represents something as dangerous, visible, and predictable as a giant gray rhino charging right at us.

• People tend to downplay or ignore things when they feel like they have no control over their future.

Identifying Gray Rhinos

• Once you start looking for gray rhinos, you see them in headlines every day.

• There is currently a new highly probable financial crisis looming in the headlines.

Different Conversations About Gray Rhinos

• China talks very specifically and clearly about financial risks as gray rhinos while Washington or Wall Street seems to think only smooth sailing lies ahead.

• Both China and the US have problems with debt, inequality, and economic productivity.

Why We Ignore Obvious Problems

In this section, the speaker discusses why people tend to ignore obvious problems even when they are highly probable.

The Danger of Ignoring Obvious Problems

• Most of the problems we face are so probable and obvious, yet we still don't do anything about them.

• The dangerous dynamic of ignoring obvious problems masks another problem.

Introducing the Gray Rhino Metaphor

• The speaker created the gray rhino metaphor to help people take a fresh look at highly probable but neglected problems.

Examples of Ignoring Obvious Problems

• Auto companies that put safety first versus those that don't bother to recall their shoddy cars until after people die.

• Grandparents who prepare for the inevitable by having everything planned out versus those who don't put their final affairs in order.

What Makes the Difference?

The speaker discusses what makes the difference between people who see and deal with problems versus those who look away.

Culture and Society

• Culture, society, and the people around you play a significant role in how you perceive danger.

• If you believe that someone will help pick you up when you fall, then you are more likely to see danger as being smaller.

• Individualist cultures like that of the US can make many Americans less open to change and taking good risks. In contrast, China's collectivist culture allows people to rely on their families and take certain risks.

Willingness to Learn

• How much do you know about a situation, and how much are you willing to learn?

• Many of us pay attention only to what we want to see or agree with. However, we have the opportunity and ability to correct our blind spots.

• People who recognize problems around them and make plans are more able to tolerate risk.

Control Over Gray Rhinos

• One reason why we don't act is that we often feel too helpless.

• We all have an opportunity to change our attitudes towards gray rhinos in our lives.

• Recognizing shared vulnerability gives us the power to open our eyes, see what's in front of us, and act before we get trampled.

Conclusion

The speaker invites everyone to join her in sparking an open conversation about gray rhinos in our world.

• Once we recognize our shared vulnerability, it gives us the power to act before getting trampled.