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10 years to transform the future of humanity -- or destabilize the planet | Johan Rockström
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10 years to transform the future of humanity -- or destabilize the planet | Johan Rockström

New Section

This section introduces the speaker and sets the context for the talk.

Introduction

  • The speaker discusses the concept of planetary boundaries that keep our planet in a state that allows humanity to prosper.
  • Climate and biodiversity are core boundaries that impact all others.
  • Increasing evidence suggests that we are rapidly moving away from the safe operating space for humanity on Earth.

Countdown to Transformation

The speaker emphasizes the need for profound transformation in the next 10 years to address the global climate crisis.

Urgency of Transformation

  • The past decade has witnessed record-breaking climate extremes, including fires, floods, and heatwaves across different regions.
  • Tipping points are being approached, which could lead to irreversible changes in the planet's systems.
  • Children are demanding action and expressing disbelief at our inability to address these risks.

Climate Tipping Points

The speaker highlights various tipping points that have already been crossed or are approaching, with significant implications for climate change.

Arctic Sea Ice and Permafrost

  • Arctic sea ice is rapidly melting, with projections of an ice-free summer within a few decades.
  • Permafrost in Siberia is thawing at alarming rates.
  • Greenland is losing trillions of tons of ice and may be approaching a tipping point.

Forest Fires and Ocean Circulation

  • Forests in the North are experiencing large-scale fires emitting significant smoke.
  • The Atlantic ocean circulation is slowing down.

Amazon Rainforest and Coral Reefs

  • The Amazon rainforest is weakening and may start emitting carbon within 15 years.
  • Half of the coral in the Great Barrier Reef has died due to climate-related factors.

Threats of Tipping Points

The speaker explains the three main threats associated with tipping points and their potential consequences.

Sea Level Rise

  • Sea level rise is a significant threat, with projections of up to one meter this century.
  • Melting ice from Antarctica and Greenland could lead to a two-meter rise or more.

Carbon Release and System Interconnections

  • If carbon stores like permafrost and forests release large amounts of carbon, stabilizing temperatures becomes much harder.
  • Tipping points in different systems are interconnected, increasing the likelihood of triggering additional tipping points.

The State of the Planet

The speaker reflects on the importance of a stable climate and biodiversity for human civilization.

Civilization's Foundation

  • A stable climate and rich biodiversity are essential foundations for human civilization.
  • Human society has thrived within a narrow temperature range for thousands of years since the last ice age.

Drifting Towards Hot-House Earth

  • Current trends indicate that we are heading towards a three to four-degree world within just a few generations.
  • This would rewind the climate clock by millions of years, leading to uninhabitable conditions for billions of people.

The Planetary Emergency

The speaker emphasizes the urgency of taking action in the next 10 years to address the planetary emergency we face.

Unstoppable Buttons

  • The fear is not an abrupt collapse but pressing irreversible buttons in Earth's systems.

Future Generations' Planet

  • The actions taken in the next decade will determine the state of the planet handed over to future generations.

Two Frontiers for Transformation

The speaker identifies two frontiers that will guide transformation efforts towards sustainability.

Science and Planetary Stewardship

  • Science plays a crucial role in understanding planetary boundaries and global commons.
  • The equation for a sustainable planet is "planetary boundaries plus global commons equals planetary stewardship."

Urgency of Action

  • It is essential to get serious about stabilizing the planet and addressing the climate crisis.

Timestamps are approximate and may vary slightly.

New Section

This section emphasizes the need to cut global emissions, decarbonize major systems, transform agriculture, and protect natural ecosystems.

Global Emissions Reduction

  • The first task is to cut global emissions by half by 2030 and reach net-zero by 2050 or sooner.
  • Decarbonizing energy, industry, transport, and buildings is crucial in achieving this goal.
  • The fossil fuel era is over, and a transformation is needed.

Transforming Agriculture

  • Agriculture needs to shift from being a source of emissions to becoming a store of carbon.
  • This transformation will contribute to reducing overall greenhouse gas emissions.

Protecting Oceans and Land

  • It is critical to protect oceans and land as they serve as natural ecosystems that absorb half of our emissions.
  • Preserving these ecosystems plays a vital role in mitigating climate change.

Possibility for Success

  • There is optimism that we can achieve these goals because we have the knowledge and technology required.
  • Pursuing sustainable practices makes social and economic sense.
  • Successful efforts will lead to improved air quality, healthier lifestyles, resilient economies, and livable cities.

New Section

This section highlights the importance of collective responsibility in protecting our planet for future generations.

Our Shared Journey

  • We are all on this journey around the sun together.
  • Earth is our only home, emphasizing the need for united action in addressing climate change.

Mission: Protecting Our Children's Future

  • Our mission is to safeguard the future of our children.
  • Taking action against climate change ensures a better world for future generations.

Conclusion

The transcript concludes with a simple expression of gratitude.

Thank you.

Channel: TED
Video description

Take action on climate change at http://countdown.ted.com. "For the first time, we are forced to consider the real risk of destabilizing the entire planet," says climate impact scholar Johan Rockström. In a talk backed by vivid animations of the climate crisis, he shows how nine out of the 15 big biophysical systems that regulate the climate -- from the permafrost of Siberia to the great forests of the North to the Amazon rainforest -- are at risk of reaching tipping points, which could make Earth uninhabitable for humanity. Hear his plan for putting the planet back on the path of sustainability over the next 10 years -- and protecting the future of our children. This talk was part of the Countdown Global Launch on 10.10.2020. (Watch the full event here: https://youtu.be/5dVcn8NjbwY.) Countdown is TED's global initiative to accelerate solutions to the climate crisis. The goal: to build a better future by cutting greenhouse gas emissions in half by 2030, in the race to a zero-carbon world. Get involved at https://countdown.ted.com/sign-up Follow Countdown on Twitter: http://twitter.com/tedcountdown Follow Countdown on Instagram: http://instagram.com/tedcountdown Subscribe to our channel: http://youtube.com/TED TED's videos may be used for non-commercial purposes under a Creative Commons License, Attribution–Non Commercial–No Derivatives (or the CC BY – NC – ND 4.0 International) and in accordance with our TED Talks Usage Policy (https://www.ted.com/about/our-organization/our-policies-terms/ted-talks-usage-policy). For more information on using TED for commercial purposes (e.g. employee learning, in a film or online course), please submit a Media Request at https://media-requests.ted.com