Sri Mulyani: Bijak & Inovatif Kelola Fiskal | Endgame #58

Introduction

In this section, the speaker discusses the challenges policymakers face in finding the right timing and dose for policies.

Policymakers' Hard Choices

• Policymakers face challenges in finding the right timing and dose for policies.

• Being too little too late or overdoing it can have negative consequences.

• Finding the right timing and dose is crucial for policymakers.

Background of Sri Mulyani

In this section, Sri Mulyani talks about her background and how she ended up studying economics.

Childhood and Education

• Sri Mulyani was born in Sumatra to parents who were teachers.

• Her parents were students at Gajah Mada University's Faculty of Education.

• Sri Mulyani went on to study at Universitas Indonesia (UI), majoring in natural science before switching to economics.

• She enjoyed studying at UI because of its environment and idealistic students.

Career Path

In this section, Sri Mulyani talks about her career path after completing her studies.

Early Career

• After completing her PhD, Sri Mulyani continued her career at UI as a teacher and director of research.

• She became the director of LPEM-FEBUI when Mr. Darmin Nasution was recruited to be a Director General in the Ministry of Finance during Mr. Afif's time.

Economic Crisis of 1997-1998

• The economic crisis of 1997-1998 shaped Sri Mulyani's career as an economist who could explain complex issues with relative ease.

• The crisis led to significant changes in Indonesia's economy, including Bank Indonesia becoming independent from the Monetary Council in the Ministry of Finance and increased scrutiny from DPR (House of Representatives) and BPK (The Audit Board of Indonesia).

Changes in Indonesia's Economy

In this section, Sri Mulyani talks about the changes that have occurred in Indonesia's economy since the 1997-1998 economic crisis.

Paradigm Shift

• The economic crisis led to a paradigm shift in state financial management.

• Bank Indonesia became independent, and there is now increased scrutiny from DPR and BPK.

• There have been significant reforms in the accounting system.

Sri Mulyani's Career at UI

• Sri Mulyani was involved in teaching at UI during a time when podcasts and the internet were not yet popular.

Break Time

In this section, the speaker expresses their desire to take a break from their work and compares their current living situation to being in school.

Taking a Break

• The speaker wants to take a break because their current living situation is similar to being in school.

Education and Economic Recovery

In this section, the speaker discusses the importance of education and how it relates to economic recovery.

Importance of Education

• The speaker emphasizes the importance of education for economic recovery.

• They mention that parents prioritize education for their children.

• The speaker shares personal experiences with pursuing higher education.

Family Members' Educational Background

In this section, the speaker talks about their family members' educational backgrounds.

Family Members' Education

• The speaker's siblings pursued degrees in medicine or engineering.

• The speaker chose to pursue economics despite being interested in non-exact sciences.

Managing Spending During Economic Downturn

In this section, the speaker discusses managing spending during an economic downturn.

Managing Spending

• The government needs to be disciplined with spending during an economic downturn.

• Despite lower revenue, spending increased due to health-related expenses.

Lowering Deficit

In this section, the speaker talks about lowering the deficit during an economic recovery.

Lowering Deficit

• With good oil prices and coal prices, there will be an economic recovery and good revenue.

• The speaker emphasizes the need for spending to remain disciplined during this time.

• By the end of 2021, there is a possibility that the deficit will decrease.

Dampak Krisis Ekonomi Global

Pada bagian ini, Sri Mulyani membahas dampak krisis ekonomi global dan bagaimana Indonesia meresponsnya.

Respons Indonesia Terhadap Krisis Ekonomi Global

• Krisis ekonomi global telah menurunkan hampir 1% dari GDP.

• Indonesia hanya paham cara melaporkan mengenai krisis saja.

• Sri Mulyani memberikan sinyal optimistis terkait negosiasi IMF program, LOI, dll.

• Respons pemerintah harus luar biasa untuk mengatasi situasi yang mengancam masyarakat.

Taper Tantrum dan Inflasi

• Ada narasi atau retorika taper tantrum atau inflasi yang perlu diwaspadai.

• Monetization of fiscal operations disebutkan sebagai respons atas taper tantrum.

Respons Pemerintah Terhadap COVID-19

• Meskipun kerugian jiwa relatif kecil, respons pemerintah harus luar biasa karena nyawa tidak bisa dihitung dengan statistik semata.

• Seluruh dunia sedang berjuang melawan COVID-19 dan pemerintah harus memberikan respons luar biasa.

Respons Pemerintah Terhadap Bencana Alam

• Ketika Aceh dilanda tsunami, pemerintah memberikan respon luar biasa dengan mengeluarkan note dan mendapat dukungan dari Bank Indonesia.

• Monetization of fiscal operations juga dilakukan oleh negara-negara maju selama krisis keuangan global.

Karir Sri Mulyani

• Sri Mulyani dipanggil untuk menjadi Executive Director di IMF oleh Pak Menteri Keuangan, Pak Boediono.

• Setelah menjabat sebagai Menteri Bappenas, Sri Mulyani dipindahkan ke Menteri Keuangan.

Perjalanan Menteri Keuangan Sri Mulyani

Dalam bagian ini, Menteri Keuangan Sri Mulyani membahas perjalanannya ke beberapa negara dan tantangan yang dihadapi oleh para pembuat kebijakan dalam memulihkan ekonomi pasca pandemi COVID-19.

Tantangan Para Pembuat Kebijakan

• Para pembuat kebijakan harus membuat pilihan sulit dalam menentukan timing yang tepat dan dosis yang sesuai dalam mengambil tindakan untuk memulihkan ekonomi.

• Hal ini menjadi pekerjaan yang paling menantang bagi para pembuat kebijakan.

• Krisis akibat pandemi COVID-19 berbeda dengan krisis sebelumnya seperti pada tahun 1998 atau 2008.

Penanganan Krisis Ekonomi Pasca Pandemi COVID-19

• Indonesia harus melakukan reformasi untuk meningkatkan daya saing dan menarik investasi asing langsung (FDI).

• Peningkatan vaksinasi sangat penting untuk mempercepat pemulihan ekonomi.

• Bank Sentral dan Menteri Keuangan di negara lain akan mempertimbangkan seberapa cepat mereka harus melakukan pengencangan kebijakan moneter meskipun hal tersebut dapat menyebabkan keluarnya modal dari negara tersebut.

Tantangan Lainnya

• Negara-negara lain sudah mengalami tekanan inflasi yang tinggi.

• Indonesia harus memperhatikan inflasi dan defisit neraca perdagangan untuk menjaga stabilitas ekonomi.

Catatan: Bagian ini membahas tantangan yang dihadapi oleh para pembuat kebijakan dalam memulihkan ekonomi pasca pandemi COVID-19, serta upaya-upaya yang dapat dilakukan untuk mengatasi tantangan tersebut.

Indonesia's Investment Climate

In this section, Gita Wirjawan discusses the importance of maintaining a good investment climate in Indonesia and how it can attract foreign direct investment (FDI).

Importance of a Good Investment Climate

• A good investment climate is important to attract FDI.

• Certainty from the contract side and less uncertainty about rule changes are factors that make a country attractive for investment.

• Singapore's Changi airport is an example of an attractive investment due to its 24/7 operations.

• Safe means that there is certainty from the contract side, such as LO and business certainty.

Simplifying Investment Process

• The Job Creation Act simplifies the process for investors by creating one single submission only.

• The OSS system replaces the need to go to multiple government agencies for approvals.

Creating Incentives

• Providing incentives can help attract FDI.

• Creating incentives and systems can help bring in FDI.

Building Infrastructure for Exporting Goods

In this section, Gita Wirjawan discusses how building good infrastructure is important for exporting goods and attracting FDI.

Importance of Good Infrastructure

• Good infrastructure is important so that products produced with good quality can be exported at low cost.

• Poor infrastructure can prevent products from being exported or make the cost of exporting very high.

Exporting to Strategic Places

• Indonesia exports to strategic places such as ASEAN, China, America, Europe, and Australia.

• Creating a place to be able to export goods is important for attracting FDI.

Creating Incentives

• Providing incentives can help attract FDI.

• Creating incentives and systems can help bring in FDI.

Tackling the Impact of COVID-19 on Society

In this section, the speaker discusses how President Joko Widodo is addressing the impact of COVID-19 on society by building infrastructure, changing laws, and improving healthcare.

Addressing the Immediate Needs

• President Joko Widodo is taking steps to address the immediate needs of society as people suddenly lose their income due to COVID-19.

• The government is investing in healthcare and providing assistance such as hand sanitizers and personal protective equipment (PPE).

• The government is also importing testing and tracing equipment to help combat the spread of COVID-19.

Protecting Small Businesses

• The government is focused on protecting small businesses, especially those that have been hit hard by the pandemic.

• Assistance programs are being developed to provide a safety net for those who cannot work due to lockdown measures.

• Loans are being made available with deferred payments to help small businesses stay afloat during these difficult times.

Climate Change and Economic Development

In this section, the speaker discusses how Indonesia is balancing economic development with climate change concerns.

Balancing Economic Growth with Environmental Concerns

• While FDI can create job opportunities, it's important to consider environmental impacts when attracting investors.

• Indonesia has taken steps towards reducing carbon emissions by promoting renewable energy sources.

Investing in Technology for Sustainable Solutions

• The speaker believes that technology will play a key role in achieving sustainable solutions to climate change.

• Tariffs on electricity usage can be used as an incentive for people to use more environmentally friendly energy sources.

• The government is promoting the use of more energy-efficient appliances and vehicles.

Using Technology to Address Social Issues

In this section, the speaker discusses how technology can be used to address social issues such as unemployment and poverty.

Leveraging Technology for Social Assistance Programs

• The Australian government has successfully used technology to provide social assistance programs during the pandemic.

• Technology can be leveraged to identify problems and find solutions, such as providing financial assistance to those who have lost their jobs due to COVID-19.

Balancing Technological Advancements with Human Needs

• While technology can help solve many problems, it's important not to lose sight of human needs when implementing new technologies.

• The government is working towards making basic necessities such as electricity more affordable for low-income households.

Teknologi dan APBN

Pemerintah harus menggunakan teknologi sebagai solusi untuk mengatasi masalah ekonomi yang dihadapi saat ini. APBN dapat digunakan sebagai instrumen fiskal untuk memberikan insentif, subsidi, dan pajak.

Penggunaan Teknologi

• Teknologi selalu muncul sebagai solusi untuk mengatasi masalah.

• Kombinasi dari uang, teknologi, dan kebijakan dapat membantu mengatasi masalah.

• Solusinya adalah teknologi.

Instrumen Fiskal

• APBN adalah instrumen fiskal yang dapat digunakan untuk memberikan insentif, subsidi, dan pajak.

• Undang-undang keuangan negara memungkinkan penggunaan strategi energi terbarukan dalam pembangunan ekonomi.

• Fungsi alokasi, distribusi, stabilisasi dalam APBN dapat digunakan untuk membangun infrastruktur seperti sekolah dan kesehatan.

Dampak Mobilitas Terbatas pada Ekonomi

Pembatasan mobilitas berdampak pada ekonomi karena sektor usaha lumpuh.

Dampak Pembatasan Mobilitas

• Pembatasan mobilitas berdampak pada ekonomi.

• Sektor usaha seperti pariwisata, perdagangan, akomodasi, dan restoran lumpuh.

• Transportasi umum juga lumpuh.

APBN sebagai Instrumen Fiskal

• APBN dapat digunakan sebagai instrumen fiskal untuk memberikan insentif, subsidi, dan pajak dalam mengatasi masalah ekonomi yang dihadapi saat ini.

Negara Berkembang Berhak Membangun Ekonomi

Negara berkembang berhak membangun ekonominya meskipun masih menghasilkan emisi karbon yang tinggi. Teknologi dapat membantu negara berkembang untuk mengurangi emisi karbon.

Hak Negara Berkembang

• Negara berkembang berhak membangun ekonominya karena masih banyak orang miskin dengan pendapatan rendah.

• Negara berkembang harus membantu rakyat yang lebih lemah (vulnerable).

• Pembatasan terhadap negara berkembang untuk tidak mencemari lingkungan sama sekali tidak adil.

Solusi Mengurangi Emisi Karbon

• Teknologi dapat membantu negara berkembang untuk mengurangi emisi karbon.

• Solusinya adalah teknologi energi terbarukan.

FOLU, Gold Standard, Energy and Blockchain Technology

In this section, the speakers discuss various topics such as Forestry and Land Use (FOLU), the absence of a gold standard, energy requirements, and blockchain technology.

FOLU and Energy

• FOLU stands for Forestry and Land Use.

• Many people don't understand the need for energy.

• The speakers also talk about renewable strategies.

Gold Standard

• There is no gold standard anymore.

• This is a hedge against inflation.

Blockchain Technology

• Blockchain technology is a shared ledger in a closed system.

• People believe in its credibility.

• Bitcoin is considered a commodity rather than currency by Central Banks around the world.

COVID-19 Impact on Economy

In this section, the speakers discuss how COVID-19 has impacted economies around the world.

Printing Money to Protect Economy

• Central Banks print money to protect the economy during COVID.

• This excess money looks for places to invest.

Regulators' Response to Crypto/Bitcoin

• Regulators around the world are starting to think about under whose regulation crypto/bitcoin should be.

Conclusion

In this section, the speakers conclude their discussion.

Final Thoughts

• The speakers give an optimistic signal.

• Regulators are starting to think about under whose regulation crypto/bitcoin should be.

• This is a good foundation for being more optimistic in the future.

Regulating Closed Ledger Technology

In this section, the speaker discusses the need for regulation of closed ledger technology and who should regulate it. They also touch on the risks associated with illicit financing and how organizations like FATF are working to detect these risks.

Need for Regulation

• Bubbles and bursts are common in finance, making regulation necessary.

• The speaker questions who should regulate closed ledger technology.

• Many countries have started to accommodate this technology, making it important to determine how to reconcile it with traditional Central Bank currency.

Risks Associated with Illicit Financing

• Closed ledger technology can be used for various illicit financing such as financing for terrorism and money laundering.

• FATF considers these growing risks and works to detect the flow of funds from illicit financing.

Response by Organizations

• G20 Finance Ministers and Central Banks discuss regulating closed ledger technology among world authorities such as the Financial Sector Board, IMF, and BIS.

• Many countries including Singapore, London, China, Japan, ASEAN, and Indonesia have started using closed ledger technology.

• Bank Indonesia has started studying implications of this technology.

Monetization of Fiscal Operations

In this section, the speaker discusses monetization of fiscal operations during COVID-19 pandemic. They also talk about how liquidity is entering economies due to government responses.

Monetization of Fiscal Operations

• During Global Financial Crisis many countries including developed ones did monetization of fiscal operations.

• China has tried Central Bank digital currency and the Federal Reserve in America is considering it.

• Bank Indonesia is studying monetization of fiscal operations.

Liquidity Entering Economies

• Liquidity is entering economies due to government responses to COVID-19 pandemic.

Cryptocurrency and Economic Recovery

In this section, the speaker discusses the challenges and opportunities presented by cryptocurrency and the importance of economic recovery.

Cryptocurrency

• The closed ledger system used in cryptocurrency requires a lot of energy.

• Generation Z's enthusiasm for cryptocurrency is heartening, but policymakers must balance inflation concerns with the need to embrace new technologies.

• Young people are concerned about the right things, but it is important to equip them with facts, knowledge, techniques, strategy, and geopolitics.

• Policymakers face difficult choices when it comes to regulating cryptocurrency.

Economic Recovery

• It is important to find the right timing and dosage for economic recovery policies.

• Economic recovery is one of the most challenging tasks facing policymakers today.

• Policymakers must be aware of scarring effects on economies caused by COVID-19.

• Indonesia's economic recovery has been good so far due to effective COVID management strategies such as increasing vaccination rates.

• Indonesia's economy faces challenges such as low inflation rates compared to other countries.

Overall, this section highlights the importance of balancing innovation with regulation in cryptocurrency while also emphasizing the challenges faced by policymakers in achieving economic recovery.

Gender and Investment

In this section, the speakers discuss the role of gender in investment and politics. They compare Indonesia to other countries and highlight the importance of creating an attractive environment for foreign investors.

Women in Politics

• America has only had one female vice president, while France has never had a female president.

• Germany's new prime minister is a woman.

• The speaker notes that Indonesia already has a female president and a female speaker of the House of Representatives.

Gender and Investment

• The speakers discuss how gender can impact investment decisions.

• They note that if women are treated as an "appendix," half of the population is being wasted.

• The speakers suggest that creating a safe and stable environment for investment is crucial to attracting foreign investors.

• They also mention the importance of simplifying bureaucratic processes to make it easier for businesses to invest in Indonesia.

Balancing Career and Family

• The speakers discuss how women face different challenges than men when it comes to balancing career and family.

• The male speaker notes that he has never been asked whether he wants to prioritize his career or family, while the female speaker says she is often asked this question.

• They suggest that creating policies that support working parents can help address these challenges.

Conclusion

The speakers emphasize the importance of creating an attractive environment for foreign investors by simplifying bureaucratic processes, ensuring economic stability, and supporting working parents.

Women's Burden and Asymmetric Treatment

In this section, the speaker discusses how women are burdened with responsibilities that are considered their default, while men are not held to the same standard. This asymmetric treatment makes it difficult for women to reach positions of power.

Gender Roles and Responsibilities

• Women are burdened with responsibilities that are considered their default.

• Men are not held to the same standard as women when it comes to responsibilities.

• This asymmetric treatment makes it difficult for women to reach positions of power.

Infrastructure and Support

• Building infrastructure is important in creating equal opportunities for men and women.

• Providing support such as paternity leave and lactation rooms can help prevent tension during childbirth.

• Childcare facilities should also be built to support working mothers.

The Importance of Diversity in Corporations

In this section, the speaker discusses the importance of diversity in corporations and how it can lead to better returns on equity (ROE).

Diversity in Venture Capital

• Studies show that as diversity increases, ROE is much better.

• Gender mainstreaming is important in corporations to prevent a "boys club" mentality.

Artificial Intelligence and Climate Change

• Artificial intelligence must be developed with gender sensitivity in mind.

• Climate change is an important issue that must be addressed by investing wisely.

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Personality Types

In this section, the speaker talks about personality types and how they can be categorized.

Categorizing Personality Types

• The speaker explains that personality types can be categorized into three groups: conformist, individualist, and outlier.

• Conformists are people who follow societal norms and rules without questioning them. They tend to value tradition and stability over change.

• Individualists are people who prioritize their own values and beliefs over societal norms. They tend to be creative, independent thinkers who value personal freedom.

• Outliers are people who do not fit into either category neatly. They may have traits from both categories or may have unique characteristics that do not fit into either category easily.

Understanding Personality Types

• The speaker emphasizes that understanding personality types is important because it helps us understand ourselves better as well as others around us.

• By understanding our own personality type, we can identify our strengths and weaknesses, which can help us make better decisions in life.

• Similarly, by understanding other people's personality types, we can communicate with them more effectively and build stronger relationships with them.