Crypto Chaos: Surviving Bank Runs and Stagflation

Foreign

The speaker greets the audience and introduces the topics that will be discussed in the video.

Bitcoin Dominance

• Bitcoin dominance has been bouncing between 39.5% and 48.5% over the last two years.

• There has been a flow from stable coins into Bitcoin, causing its dominance to increase.

• People are beginning to see the value of layer ones and layer twos in addition to Bitcoin.

Asset Performance

• Best performing assets year-to-date include Bitcoin, Ethereum, NASDAQ technology, and developed nations without the USA.

• Gold is underperforming compared to S&P 500.

• Worst performing assets include zombie companies and banks such as Signature Bank, Silicon Valley Bank, First Republic Bank, Bed Bath & Beyond bankrupted with a zombie for five years Credit Suisse volatility Regional Banks oil small caps.

Layer Twos

• Layer twos are more exposed than some of the layer ones.

• D5 protocol ovix was exploited by a flash loan attack that manipulated asset prices.

First Republic Bank

• Over $200 million worth of bitcoin was pulled from exchanges in the last 24 hours after First Republic hit the wall.

• Large whales took their bitcoin off exchanges which means they don't plan on trading anytime soon.

Conclusion

The speaker discusses how governments' actions put everyone on edge which is good for Bitcoin. He also mentions that emerging markets are coming up and talks about how only seven companies are driving results in NASDAQ 100.

Native Tokens and Tokenomics

In this section, the speaker discusses the importance of sustaining energy in new native tokens and how they need to focus on traditional competitive angles to expand their moats. The speaker compares Arbitrum to Optimism and explains why Arbitrum has done a better job of retaining customers, especially for native applications. The speaker also talks about Avalanche's removal from K33 Research's Quality Index due to expected inflationary pressure and ownership concentration.

Native Tokens Need to Focus on Traditional Competitive Angles

• New native tokens need to focus on traditional competitive angles to expand their moats.

• Arbitrum has done a much better job of retaining customers, especially for native applications when compared with Optimism.

Avalanche Removed from K33 Research's Quality Index

• Avalanche was removed from K33 Research's Quality Index due to expected inflationary pressure and ownership concentration.

• Avalanche has a large percentage of tokens outstanding from future supply through rewards and vesting schedules which is why it received a boot from their little portfolio.

Salon Dex Volume and Tesla News

In this section, the speaker talks about Salon Dex volume being back after the FTX crash that affected Solana blockchain. The speaker also mentions Tesla winning the Kelly Blue Book award for premium EVS.

Salon Dex Volume is Back

• Salon Dex volume is back almost at the same levels before the FTX crash that affected Solana blockchain.

Tesla Wins Kelly Blue Book Award

• Tesla won the Kelly Blue Book award for premium EVS in the United States Five-Year cost-to-own award.

• Model Y didn't make it because it's too new a car it doesn't have five years of history but the model 3 does.

Model 3 in the Class of All Luxury

In this section, the speaker talks about Tesla's Model 3 ranking in the class of all luxury and how much it costs over five years.

Model 3 is Cheapest for Cost of Ownership

• The Model 3 ranks first in the class of all luxury and how much it costs over five years.

• Of all these cars, there is only one EV, so not only is it an EV but it's also the cheapest for cost of ownership.

Bank of England Economist Says Britons Need to Accept They Are Poorer

The Bank of England economist says that British households and businesses need to accept they are poorer and stop seeking pay increases and pushing prices higher. This is generating inflation.

Inflation is Accelerating Again

• Inflation is accelerating again, which is bad news.

• The US inflation measure shows that both the PCE price index and the PC price index excluding food and energy are going up in Q1.

• Weekly jobless claims pointed to a still robust labor market, but this all points to a very bizarre situation hence this is happening enter stagflation.

Stagflation

• Investors are concerned about the potential for default, but we believe the debt ceiling will be extended.

• Stagflation happens when prices go up, inflation goes up, and growth goes down. This is what the FED should be worried about.

Canary in the Coal Mine

• Swedish retail sales fell by nearly 14%, which are catastrophic numbers if you have thin margins in your business.

The Problem with Productivity Gains

In this section, the speaker discusses how productivity gains are being stolen and concentrated at the top through manipulation of money, instead of flowing to society in the form of lower prices.

Concentration of Wealth

• The productivity gains are being stolen and concentrated at the top through manipulation of money.

• Banks like First Republic and other banks are hitting the world who's there to pick them up for a zero on the dollar or sometimes in Credit Suisse case for example they get like a credit to take it over JP Morgan.

• The highest richest people benefit from this concentration of wealth, not the average person on the street.

Manipulation of Money

• This is done to prevent deflation which would cause Banks to fail and the entire system to collapse. But banks are failing and the system is collapsing as a result.

• Debt is already insolvent but we pretend it's not, creating an incentive for everyone to be too big to fail which leads to theft as a base layer of money in the economy.

Need for Higher Yield Assets

In this section, the speaker emphasizes that we need an asset that has a higher yield than savings accounts and non-demand accounts, something more secure than fiat currency, and not subject to inflation.

Importance of High-Yield Assets

• We need an asset that has a higher yield in savings accounts and non-demand accounts. It needs something that's more secure investment than Fiat and it's not subject to inflation. This is so critical so important.

• People need high yield assets because they need a way to try to keep up with inflation.

The Federal Home Loan Banks Balance

In this section, the speaker discusses how the federal home loan banks balance is at an all-time high of 1.04 trillion dollars, which is de facto quantitative easing and a backdoor bailout for banks.

Quantitative Easing

• The federal home loan banks balance hit an all-time high of 1.04 trillion dollars in q1 2023. This is the highest quarterly amount since the great financial crisis.

• This is de facto quantitative easing and a backdoor bailout for the banks, caused by the Fed's recklessness.

Cash Drainage and Mortgage Portfolios

In this section, the speaker talks about how First Republic lost over 100 billion dollars in cash drainage and how mortgage portfolios are also destroyed by JP's recklessness and the Fed.

Cash Drainage

• First Republic lost over 100 billion dollars in cash drainage in just a couple of weeks.

• Deposit infusion from other banks wasn't enough to help them recover from this loss.

Mortgage Portfolios

• Mortgage portfolios are also destroyed by JP's recklessness and the Fed's actions.

The Banking System and the Dollar

In this section, the speaker discusses the current state of the banking system and its stress levels. They also talk about the potential threat to the US dollar as Russia tries to reduce reliance on it.

Banking System Stress

• The banking system is still stressed due to a variety of reasons.

• If interest rates increase too quickly, it could cause things to break.

• Emerging markets are stacking gold because they fear their own fiat currency is worth nothing.

Threat to US Dollar

• Russia is turning screws on dollar hedge money, which could lead to a shift away from the dollar as the world's reserve currency.

• If other currencies become more popular than the dollar for international transactions, there will be less demand for dollars, causing its value to fall.

• Other countries are considering mining Bitcoin like Russia, which could further threaten the value of the dollar.

Bitcoin and Investment Advice

In this section, the speaker urges viewers to invest in Bitcoin before time runs out. They also provide investment advice for those sitting on cash.

Investing in Bitcoin

• Time is running out to invest in Bitcoin.

• It's risky to sit on cash; investing in an S&P 500 index fund is not enough.

• Viewers should consider investing in Bitcoin before it's too late.

Live Q&A and Conclusion

• The speaker will hold a live Q&A session tomorrow at noon Pacific time.

• The video ends with music.