¿Por qué el oro y la plata se están desplomando?
What is Happening with Precious Metals?
Recent Price Declines in Gold and Silver
- The price of gold has dropped by 25% and silver by 50% since pre-war levels before the Iran conflict, with silver recently falling below $60 per ounce and gold dropping below $4,000 per ounce.
- This significant decline cannot be solely attributed to the war in Iran, as both metals began their downward trend well before the conflict escalated.
Economic Factors Influencing Metal Prices
- Despite a decrease in oil prices and inflation expectations, nominal interest rates are not decreasing proportionally, leading to an increase in real interest rates.
- A graph shows that U.S. two-year public debt interest rates are at their highest since early 2025, while ten-year rates are also elevated despite Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Relationship Between Real Interest Rates and Precious Metals
- There is a negative correlation between precious metal prices and real interest rates; when real rates rise, precious metals tend to perform poorly as they do not yield monetary returns like government bonds do.
- Higher real interest rates make government bonds more attractive compared to precious metals due to their ability to provide returns that can outpace inflation.
Opportunity Cost of Holding Precious Metals
- As real interest rates rise, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold or silver increases, prompting investors to shift towards government bonds for better returns.
- Similar dynamics apply to Bitcoin; rising real interest rates negatively impact its price for the same reasons affecting gold and silver prices.
Future Outlook on Precious Metal Prices
- The future pricing of precious metals hinges on whether real interest rates will remain high or begin to decline; this will dictate investor behavior regarding these assets.
- Investment options such as ETFs (e.g., Invesco Physical Gold) allow exposure to physical gold without direct ownership risks associated with storage or security concerns.
Diverging Opinions on Interest Rate Trends
- Two main perspectives exist regarding future trends in real interest rates: one suggests they will rise due to increased demand for financing from governments and corporations; another posits they may fall if investment bubbles burst or if inflation expectations stabilize significantly.
- If the Federal Reserve lowers nominal interest rates significantly, it could lead to lower real interest rates but may not be sustainable given current economic conditions such as high public deficits and private financing demands.
Conclusion on Current Market Dynamics
- Currently, all sensitive assets like gold, silver, Bitcoin, and long-duration stocks are adjusting their prices based on new levels of real interest rates; higher expected levels will result in lower asset prices moving forward.